quote:

Our debt exceeds our productivity and we have runaway inflation, the dollar has lost significant value.

It's rare that one sentence can be completely wrong on three topics but you have succeeded.

quote:

Originally posted by cal pappas:
Could some of the reasons be escalating costs, diminishing trophy quality, taxidermy and related shipping fees, airfare increases, seemingly endless permits and paperwork, nearly everyone in Africa honing their skills to separate hunters from their money, lost luggage, thefts, expected tips, etc.?
Cal

When ever I read one of Cal's posts, I have to apply my BS Filter to see if his points are legitimate. This dates back to 2012, when he criticized my first Accurate Reloading "Hunt Report" because I used a laser rangefinder on 200+ yard shots, and hunted near a DRY waterhole. In terms of "escalating costs", my third Namibian safari cost EXACTLY the same as my 2013 hunt. The "Diminishing trophy quality" is also BS- my trophies from this year were BETTER than my hunts of 2012 and 2013. My taxidermy costs (using The Taxidermy Studio in Otjiwarango, Namibia) were EXACTLY the same as 2013. There were NO "airfare increases" from 2013 to 2015, in fact, it was $400 LESS this year flying British Airways ($1400 vs $1800). The "permits and paperwork" are all handled by my PH, and included in his daily rates. Cal's assertion that "nearly everyone in Africa (is) honing their skills to separate hunters from their money" is not only cynical but UNTRUE when dealing with reputable PH's. As to "lost luggage and theft" I carried on all my hunting gear in my Red Oxx bag and used a camp rifle supplied by my PH (same make and calibre as I own).The only reason I didn't hunt in 2014 with the same PH (Jan du Plessis of Sebra Hunting Safaris) was I had knee surgery for a torn meniscus. It's sad that a seasoned African hunter like Cal can be so negative toward an entire industry. Why buy and own expensive double rifles if you don't want to use them on African game? How about just finding a reputable PH like Andrew Baldry or Jan du Plessis and enjoying the great sport of African hunting without the Debby Downer attitude?

I think there is little doubt that bookings are down . Lots of reasons . I know one company that had 100 plus days cancelled on the first day of DSC.

Lot of reasons including:

1- costs
2- aggravation factors
3-aging client base
4- the oil and gas debacle
5- overall economic conditions
6-fear of the future with all the insanity going on in the U.S. government
7- generally hunting is not as good as it used to be
8- elephant ban

I am sure there are others.

quote:

Originally posted by ted thorn:
I talked to four or five outfitters for the possibility of booking a PG trip for 2018

The prices I was quoted vs what I paid in 2014 told me that Africa would probably not be spending another dime of my money.

It's a shame.....My wife and I truly loved our first and probably only trip

I would get in touch with Jason Bridger at Tholo. I think you can have a great value for money hunt. To stay under budget you may have to make some compromises with shipping trophy back and taxidermy costs. But on just hunting - you can still find some great deals. Also I have heard tholo has some great facilities that your wife will appreciate.

Also you can do a trip to the delta - but when I checked in season photo tourism rates in delta are pretty high - makes hunting look cheap.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
I think there is little doubt that bookings are down . Lots of reasons . I know one company that had 100 plus days cancelled on the first day of DSC.

Lot of reasons including:

1- costs
2- aggravation factors
3-aging client base
4- the oil and gas debacle
5- overall economic conditions
6-fear of the future with all the insanity going on in the U.S. government
7- generally hunting is not as good as it used to be
8- elephant ban

I am sure there are others.

Hope the industry wakes up to reality before following the 10-15 percent a year increase in daily rated and moving cost elsewhere business model (dip and pack, road transfer ect). All they will have is cancelled hunts and then have to offer deals to clean quota.

If we go to high price with discount business model - no one is going to commit to hunting at list prices. Everyone will try and cut deals and it will become like buying a used car or truck.

I would like to see a all in one price. Hate to go on a 30-50k safari and have to settle a bar tab.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Bud Meadows:

quote:

Originally posted by cal pappas:
Could some of the reasons be escalating costs, diminishing trophy quality, taxidermy and related shipping fees, airfare increases, seemingly endless permits and paperwork, nearly everyone in Africa honing their skills to separate hunters from their money, lost luggage, thefts, expected tips, etc.?
Cal

When ever I read one of Cal's posts, I have to apply my BS Filter to see if his points are legitimate. This dates back to 2012, when he criticized my first Accurate Reloading "Hunt Report" because I used a laser rangefinder on 200+ yard shots, and hunted near a DRY waterhole. In terms of "escalating costs", my third Namibian safari cost EXACTLY the same as my 2013 hunt. The "Diminishing trophy quality" is also BS- my trophies from this year were BETTER than my hunts of 2012 and 2013. My taxidermy costs (using The Taxidermy Studio in Otjiwarango, Namibia) were EXACTLY the same as 2013. There were NO "airfare increases" from 2013 to 2015, in fact, it was $400 LESS this year flying British Airways ($1400 vs $1800). The "permits and paperwork" are all handled by my PH, and included in his daily rates. Cal's assertion that "nearly everyone in Africa (is) honing their skills to separate hunters from their money" is not only cynical but UNTRUE when dealing with reputable PH's. As to "lost luggage and theft" I carried on all my hunting gear in my Red Oxx bag and used a camp rifle supplied by my PH (same make and calibre as I own).The only reason I didn't hunt in 2014 with the same PH (Jan du Pleases of Sebra Hunting Safaris) was I had knee surgery for a torn meniscus. It's sad that a seasoned African hunter like Cal can be so negative toward an entire industry. Why buy and own expensive double rifles if you don't want to use them on African game? How about just finding a reputable PH like Andrew Baldry or Jan du Pleases and enjoying the great sport of African hunting without the Debby Downer attitude?

Bravo!

Beretta682E,

After calculations of daily rates from the Tholo website

$6500 would be my cost if I didn't fire a shot for 10 days with my wife for daily rates alone!

I do see they offer a $6900 7 day package....+$1400 for an observer

quote:

Originally posted by ted thorn:
Beretta682E,

After calculations of daily rates from the Tholo website

$6500 would be my cost if I didn't fire a shot for 10 days with my wife for daily rates alone!

I do see they offer a $6900 7 day package....+$1400 for an observer

Look at the package offered by tim herald. I hunted kanana which is very similar to tholo on a package and was given an opportunity to cull for free in cattle area or $100 each for wildebeest and gemsbok. There will be some culling opp at tholo.

Also if you want to go to africa with the wife. You should look beyond just hunting - the cape and shark diving are great. Very affordale too. The plane ticket and time are significant just to get there.

Also leave guns behind - jason is a gun nut and has quality firearms.

If i was in african hunting business i would focus on the issues stated by larry shores. Need to address making a hunt as much as a vacation instead of a list of charges for everything from gun fees to road transfers.

Mike

I guess I am doing my part to improve business, but the numbers of reduced rate hunts does have me thinking about advance booking... Why commit to high prices?

As to hunting not being what it was, so far my experience has been it is getting better for me, but I don't really have a valid comparison as I keep going to different areas.

Trophy quality seems to be getting modestly better of late, but certainly not approaching the quality that one hears about in the books. I would note that some animals are changing due to what hunters are doing- it used to be outside spread uber alles for buffalo, but now the PH's won't let you shoot a soft bigger buffalo- and I recall seeing some older pics from Ruark and Capstick that made me wonder just how "hard" some of those old buff really were.

I can't say how soft bookings really are- I know some folks who are telling me that business is good, and some who are bemoaning a radical lack of business- but what they say and how it actually is may be different things...

A booking agent who wants a sale at the convention is going to say he is almost sold out, you need to make a decision NOW... but if you state that only a certain day works...does it become miraculously open?

I do have my peeves.

I don't like the line of folks with a hand out. Seems to be worse in RSA than in some other spots (when the dip and pack costs more for 6 PG animals in RSA than a 24 animal Tanz hunt with 3 species of the big 5 (3 being buffalo), you have an issue...)

I would like to see the charters, community fees, etc. all in your hunt price rather than parceled into the TF's and added on as a line item...

But as long as I can afford it, I am going to keep at it.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:

quote:

Our debt exceeds our productivity and we have runaway inflation, the dollar has lost significant value.

It's rare that one sentence can be completely wrong on three topics but you have succeeded.

Compare anything from the cost of steak to the cost of a euro, the dollar has declined. As far as our debt being greater than GDP, look at total debt, including unfunded liabilities and that the creation of currency is also the creation of debt.

quote:

Originally posted by Bud Meadows:

quote:

Originally posted by cal pappas:
Could some of the reasons be escalating costs, diminishing trophy quality, taxidermy and related shipping fees, airfare increases, seemingly endless permits and paperwork, nearly everyone in Africa honing their skills to separate hunters from their money, lost luggage, thefts, expected tips, etc.?
Cal

When ever I read one of Cal's posts, I have to apply my BS Filter to see if his points are legitimate. This dates back to 2012, when he criticized my first Accurate Reloading "Hunt Report" because I used a laser rangefinder on 200+ yard shots, and hunted near a DRY waterhole. In terms of "escalating costs", my third Namibian safari cost EXACTLY the same as my 2013 hunt. The "Diminishing trophy quality" is also BS- my trophies from this year were BETTER than my hunts of 2012 and 2013. My taxidermy costs (using The Taxidermy Studio in Otjiwarango, Namibia) were EXACTLY the same as 2013. There were NO "airfare increases" from 2013 to 2015, in fact, it was $400 LESS this year flying British Airways ($1400 vs $1800). The "permits and paperwork" are all handled by my PH, and included in his daily rates. Cal's assertion that "nearly everyone in Africa (is) honing their skills to separate hunters from their money" is not only cynical but UNTRUE when dealing with reputable PH's. As to "lost luggage and theft" I carried on all my hunting gear in my Red Oxx bag and used a camp rifle supplied by my PH (same make and calibre as I own).The only reason I didn't hunt in 2014 with the same PH (Jan du Pleases of Sebra Hunting Safaris) was I had knee surgery for a torn meniscus. It's sad that a seasoned African hunter like Cal can be so negative toward an entire industry. Why buy and own expensive double rifles if you don't want to use them on African game? How about just finding a reputable PH like Andrew Baldry or Jan du Pleases and enjoying the great sport of African hunting without the Debby Downer attitude?

Bud:

With all due respect, you have only hunted with one PH who charges very little for a plains game hunt. I will be first the first to admit he goes the extra mile, but I think you have rose colored glasses. He does have tremendous gemsbok, but the kudu, like many other ranchers, took a major hit from rabies and are just now coming back. I passed on a few in the lower 50s, so I am sure they are on the upswing.

I have hunted with an elk outfitter the same number of times you have hunted with Jan. He gives tremendous value, but he doesn't advertise (neither does Jan), doesn't give free hunts to writers, etc. He simply sells a fantastic hunt for a super reasonable fee - much like Jan. But to characterize all elk hunting as a super deal would be disingenuous at worst and naive at best. And likewise, characterizing African hunting with a broad brush based on hunting with only one PH is no different.

So while I agree Jan has a super operation, I won't pass judgment on all African hunting based on what he offers. As great as it is, it doesn't compare to a tented safari in Tanzania - and he would be the first to admit it.

As prices increase, I struggle with the alternatives. for the price of a buffalo in Zim, I can take an epic trip with my kids to go scuba diving and have a lot of cash left over.

It is difficult to justify a Buffalo and a couple head of plains game, by time you figure in the plane ticket, head and shoulder mounts, and shipping them back home.

I have to think of that hunt in terms of half a new pick up.

Are Africa price increases that insane when you look at similar increases across the globe?

Seems to me that caribou, moose, brown bear, and even most good elk hunts have increased a lot.

In terms of increasing prices, Africa may lead the pack, but the global trend is certainly up at a pretty alarming rate.

OK - who is up for a cheap hunt to Australia? Ive got my calculator out and my pencil is sharp!!!

Matt - Count me in. How sharp is that pencil? If my knee continues to improve coming down your way most likely will be in the cards for next year. You may have to carry me on your back, but know you can handle that.

Larry Sellers
SCI(International)Life Member
R8 Blaser
Sabatti "trash" Double Shooter

quote:

Originally posted by Matt Graham:
OK - who is up for a cheap hunt to Australia? Ive got my calculator out and my pencil is sharp!!!

RichardAustin wrote:

quote:

cost of a euro

You really don't know what you're talking about.
A year ago the Euro was worth around $1.30, not it's just over or around $1.10. Try to keep up.

The above themes are why I have frequently booked other African adventures in conjunctions with my hunting trips. I usually add on a horse safari in the Tuli area of Botswana (getting chased by elephants while on horseback is just as exciting as hunting them) and this past May I went on a Canoe Safari down the Zambezi and got charged by hippos, no feet on the ground or a rife, just a bobbing canoe and a silly paddle to slap the water with. I guarantee you it is just as adrenalin pumping as hunting tuskless elephant cows. I then went to the East Cape for a very affordable plains game hunt. There are ways to get the excitement and adventure of hunting Africa without the expensive hunting. I will be posting a hunt report (hopefully by the end of this week) on my last trip.

quote:

One of the well known PHs here on AR made a statement awhile back that "Oil prices don't affect the price of safaris in Africa".

The price of oil may not affect the prices of safaris, but, at least here in Texas, they DAMN sure affect the ability of many hunters to pay for them.

I might still be able to afford a mid-priced African hunt but two kids at UT that are sucking a non-deductible 60K or more a year out of my finances along with the drop in oil prices have sure affected my African options. That is, none.

quote:

Originally posted by Larry Sellers:
Matt - Count me in. How sharp is that pencil? If my knee continues to improve coming down your way most likely will be in the cards for next year. You may have to carry me on your back, but know you can handle that.

Larry Sellers
SCI(International)Life Member
R8 Blaser
Sabatti "trash" Double Shooter

quote:

Originally posted by Matt Graham:
OK - who is up for a cheap hunt to Australia? Ive got my calculator out and my pencil is sharp!!!

Next year? I'm talking about this year Larry!!

Let me add another to my list. I have been on 21 safaris, soon to be 22. I woke up one day and realized that I was going to be 60 in November. Not sure how that one snuck up on me unnoticed. I realized that I can always go on safari. However, aging may limit my ability to do other hunts such as sheep hunts. I am thinking of backing down on the safaris while I do some of these hunts that I might not be able to handle in a few years.

Let me put it another way. I have shot 43 buffalo. Having #44 is not a big deal to me. Having a Marco Polo is a big deal to me.

Yes, I see me slowing down a bit on the safari side.

Regarding "runaway inflation", that, surprisingly, has not happened despite all the "QE". But I note that the price of certain "hard assets" eg Ferraris and other exotic/collectible cars, stocks (which are just fractional ownership of a bunch of tangible and intangible assets) as well as real estate, have all accelerated in the last 18 months. General consumer prices may not be up much due to decline in oil prices and the strong dollar. But it's clear that people are looking for places to park money, other than in cash or IOUs. So far, I don't see much runup in the double rifle market (and I have more of these in my inventory than any other dealer I think). I do see prices of Mannlicher Schoenauers and Sakos going up strongly to the point where they are close to double what they were 2 or 3 years ago. Also Colt handguns.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
Regarding "runaway inflation", that, surprisingly, has not happened despite all the "QE". But I note that the price of certain "hard assets" eg Ferraris and other exotic/collectible cars, stocks (which are just fractional ownership of a bunch of tangible and intangible assets) as well as real estate, have all accelerated in the last 18 months. General consumer prices may not be up much due to decline in oil prices and the strong dollar. But it's clear that people are looking for places to park money, other than in cash or IOUs. So far, I don't see much runup in the double rifle market (and I have more of these in my inventory than any other dealer I think). I do see prices of Mannlicher Schoenauers and Sakos going up strongly to the point where they are close to double what they were 2 or 3 years ago. Also Colt handguns.

Equity prices have done okay outside of oil and commodity sector.

Rich individuals seeking yield in carry equity instruments - mlps, div partnerships have gotten killed. Look at LINE stock a monthly dividend special.

Dollar has been strong and gold has sucked for last 3 years - so much for massive inflation. Gold miners are terrible.

QE was big but not massive by any scale. Adding $2 trillion in a $15 trillion economy does cause massive inflation especially when you have a massive balance sheet driven recession.

Certain collectables do well - but that may just be that it is a very thin market. There are not billions of dollars worth of ferraris for sale every day. A global flood of wealth and a thin product like a ferrari can get bid up. Guns are tougher cause even if they are a collectable you can't own them easily in many part of the new new rich world - china india middle east.

Hunting needs to be comped to other discretionary leisure activities in its price range - $20=$30K divided by 10 days 3K a day per person. The end result of a hunting trip - taxidermy is largely worthless on resale.

I don't see fishing rates going up 10-15 percent a year and they normally have a variable for fuel cost. High end hotels are not going up at the same rate. Disney vacation rates are - but its starting from a low base - $100 a day.

THe hunting industry has figured keep raising 10-15 percent a year - move price increases to line items - road transfers, dip and pack ect. A few hundred per line item over many line items add up - but is not easily observable. Hotels try the same with wifi rates.

Good thing is it is a market and consumers regardless of the professed desire of some on AR don't need to go to Africa on safari to survive. Even on AR people are starting to see buff hunt in terms of how much of a new full size pick up is it. The price mechanism works - never as smoothly as economists like to theorize - but it does work. Hope the hunting industry has not over built its fixed cost structure or we will see a lot of cancelled late season deals.

Mike

A great point on fishing. I guess after hunting for so long I am always shocked at how reasonably fishing trips are priced. I am going fishing on the Pacific coast in Mexico for a week and the all in price, lodging, meals, guides and boats, is less than $2000. Also considering a trip early next year to Andros Island to fish for bonefish. That trip to an outstanding fly fishing destination is under $4000 for lodging, meals, guides and boats. When you consider that you could do a week long fishing trip a month for what you generally spend on a two week hunt in Africa, it starts to make the fishing trips look awfully attractive for anyone interested in being outdoors but making their dollars go farther.

I was quoted a price on a buffalo hunt in Moz recently. It was a 14-day hunt for one buffalo. The price including the trophy fee was $28,000. That is just ludicrous. It really is not sustainable, particularly in light of people being more cautious with their disposable income give international financial market volatility.

The interesting thing is no one in the industry outfitters or booking agents come out and justify their pricing.

The talk is always hunts sold out, limited time to hunt lion, elephant, ect. Prices will be higher in the future. Do it now.

There has been minimal explanation of why pricing has gone up. Maybe demand was so great or one pays what the market charges. But there has been no real explanation of why road transfers keep creeping up in world of declining oil prices, dip and pack prices, conservation fees, companion rates, trophy handling and shipping, clearing rates. I have to commend Andrew/fairgame and Thor - they were/are actively trying to consolidate charter costs for the ar group hunt. They actually cared what client costs were.

A business can charge what it wants to for its services. The issue is pricing is not clear and upfront. It needs to be - last thing people need is to go on a vacation costing 20-30k and feel they are chiseled at every turn. The competing discretionary activities to hunting don't do that and they are consumer services (american express costco ect.) that negotiate for the client that you will never get in hunting. Here i will step out and say Tim Herald group hunts are an exception.

My pet peeve is charging a spouse or significant other at $200-$300 a day rate. This person sleeps in same tent, eats protein on which trophy fee is paid and at max demands additional laundry services and few drinks. The fact that it's universal in the industry shows its just another revenue and high profit margin line item.

I am seriously thinking of getting into salt water fly fishing. Beats being tied to a bluefin tuna for a few hours. Get to travel closer to the us and its cost 15-25 percent of a hunting trip.

Mike

quote:

My pet peeve is charging a spouse or significant other at $200-$300 a day rate. This person sleeps in same tent, eats protein on which trophy fee is paid and at max demands additional laundry services and few drinks. The fact that it's universal in the industry shows its just another revenue and high profit margin line item.

You and me both!

I also agree about the fishing. I've pretty much moved in that direction over the last few years.

Simple economics, really. The Safari industry is a limited resource (animals)and a lot less than there are hunters, but there are more than enough hunters with the means to pay, so the raise the prices until the market dictates otherwise. Spending 100k on a safari is the equivalent of most of us spending 10 bucks, so the prices stay up and keep going up because there are more than enough clients who have the money and simple don't care.

I don't think of a hunt in terms of a pickup; I think of it in terms of what percent of a rental property am I trading or how many months can I pay another engineer.

In 2009 I started buying real estate aggressively in Phoenix. I also spent about 80K on a 21 day. The first house I bought in 09 was 95K but today is worth about 160K. In the meantime, it has thrown off in rent almost exactly what I spent on that 09 hunt. Here is a similar financial calculus: I paid 15K for 500 shares of Facebook about two years ago. I could have done another hunt that year. Instead, those 500 shares are now worth nearly 50K. In the last two days alone they have appreciated enough to buy half a plains game hunt.

That is the real cost of hunting. But the pleasure I get from that hunt (or any other) is worth the tradeoff.

I also think in terms of the number of days of net worth appreciation I am trading for a hunt. I won't live forever, and I have never seen a Brink's armored car in funeral procession.

quote:

Originally posted by jorge:
Simple economics, really. The Safari industry is a limited resource (animals)and a lot less than there are hunters, but there are more than enough hunters with the means to pay, so the raise the prices until the market dictates otherwise. Spending 100k on a safari is the equivalent of most of us spending 10 bucks, so the prices stay up and keep going up because there are more than enough clients who have the money and simple don't care.

Given Tanzania discounted hunts seriously i doubt that.

The industry is not built on 100k or 500k hunts for people flying their G650 to get to africa. If it was there would not be any need to holding convention size hunting shows.

If it was all pure market pricing why have these line item charges that make pricing as complex as possible?

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
Regarding "runaway inflation", that, surprisingly, has not happened despite all the "QE". But I note that the price of certain "hard assets" eg Ferraris and other exotic/collectible cars, stocks (which are just fractional ownership of a bunch of tangible and intangible assets) as well as real estate, have all accelerated in the last 18 months. General consumer prices may not be up much due to decline in oil prices and the strong dollar. But it's clear that people are looking for places to park money, other than in cash or IOUs. So far, I don't see much runup in the double rifle market (and I have more of these in my inventory than any other dealer I think). I do see prices of Mannlicher Schoenauers and Sakos going up strongly to the point where they are close to double what they were 2 or 3 years ago. Also Colt handguns.

Equity prices have done okay outside of oil and commodity sector.

Rich individuals seeking yield in carry equity instruments - mlps, div partnerships have gotten killed. Look at LINE stock a monthly dividend special.

Dollar has been strong and gold has sucked for last 3 years - so much for massive inflation. Gold miners are terrible.

QE was big but not massive by any scale. Adding $2 trillion in a $15 trillion economy does cause massive inflation especially when you have a massive balance sheet driven recession.

Certain collectables do well - but that may just be that it is a very thin market. There are not billions of dollars worth of ferraris for sale every day. A global flood of wealth and a thin product like a ferrari can get bid up. Guns are tougher cause even if they are a collectable you can't own them easily in many part of the new new rich world - china india middle east.

Hunting needs to be comped to other discretionary leisure activities in its price range - $20=$30K divided by 10 days 3K a day per person. The end result of a hunting trip - taxidermy is largely worthless on resale.

I don't see fishing rates going up 10-15 percent a year and they normally have a variable for fuel cost. High end hotels are not going up at the same rate. Disney vacation rates are - but its starting from a low base - $100 a day.

THe hunting industry has figured keep raising 10-15 percent a year - move price increases to line items - road transfers, dip and pack ect. A few hundred per line item over many line items add up - but is not easily observable. Hotels try the same with wifi rates.

Good thing is it is a market and consumers regardless of the professed desire of some on AR don't need to go to Africa on safari to survive. Even on AR people are starting to see buff hunt in terms of how much of a new full size pick up is it. The price mechanism works - never as smoothly as economists like to theorize - but it does work. Hope the hunting industry has not over built its fixed cost structure or we will see a lot of cancelled late season deals.

Mike

Agree with the above thoughts.


So is international hunting in a lull for a couple of years or are we setting on a significant bubble?

Where do you see prices in two and five years?

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

Agree with the above thoughts.


So is international hunting in a lull for a couple of years or are we setting on a significant bubble?

Where do you see prices in two and five years?

I think we are in a bubble now. We have stretched pricing up 50 percent on dg hunts in last 5 years. There are some serious hunters - you cant be that in modern times with spending serious money - on this very thread saying they are cutting back and pricing makes no sense.

Lets see

Tanzania full bag in all reality is 3 buff and leopard hunt with 40 percent change on lion.

The best elephant hunting if you go by trophy weight (lets leave import out) is basically driving around national park boundaries waiting for one old guy to stray over.

There is great lion in bubye - people will pay for it.

Lord derby areas are in terrible political risk.

Plains game is great in fenced areas.

Good buff still there.

So overall hunting quality sucks relative to 25 years back.

We are slowly changing definition of a good trophy from size to age. That is a good move but was it driven by shooting out the size or decline in animal quality.

Add on top all the bs with travel, clearing, guns ect and a general social view that at least killing big five is a pariah activity in the new social media age. Has to be done on quite for anyone with a public profile - corporate ceos politicians celebrities ect.

I think prices have to adjust - become all inclusive packages. Outfitters start taking some cost in like road transfer dip pack ect. Throw in quota clean ups. Other special deals to higher dollar clients - multi game packages that are cheaper on the whole.

The stuff that went into line items get borne this time by outfitter instead of client.

Clients will adjust too - leave trophies behind, take pictures, take videos. Move from dg to pg.

African governments primarily and outfitters secondary squeezed hunters to the point. This thread did not get shot down by a few guys saying bear the price or don't hunt africa. There is a reason why - the complain is coming from old hands at the game. They are just saying its no longer the same value proposition.

I don't see a new generation jumping up and down. Killing Elephants and cats has become social unacceptable even if it is perfectly legal and in my view the only way to save large populations of these animals.

Like i said there are some living legends here on this site - Saeed, Larry Shores ect. The hunting they did starting just 2 decades back will not be replicable - the elephants are gone, rhinos too, cats too. So you have inflated prices for something that does not come any where stuff 20 years back. Shame on African governments.

I would not invest in a african hunting business or anything associated with it - south african game farms, south african game animals, anything in other parts of africa, a new budding career in african taxidermy. Long term i am bullish africa for its people economy growth but very negative its wildlife. Only light i see is there is a tough 5-7 years for mining and resources in africa - that makes the government more open to hunting.

My hunting - i am betting on south african blacks and white getting richer per capita and eating more biltong. There will also be eland to hunt for me. Also i think nambia and botswana will be fine for plains game out side of south africa.

Zim is zim. Hope save survives, bubye will. These two conservancies should be the poster child for what do in africa. But as steve shakari has said africa is wasted on the africans.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Bud Meadows:

quote:

Originally posted by cal pappas:
Could some of the reasons be escalating costs, diminishing trophy quality, taxidermy and related shipping fees, airfare increases, seemingly endless permits and paperwork, nearly everyone in Africa honing their skills to separate hunters from their money, lost luggage, thefts, expected tips, etc.?
Cal

When ever I read one of Cal's posts, I have to apply my BS Filter to see if his points are legitimate. This dates back to 2012, when he criticized my first Accurate Reloading "Hunt Report" because I used a laser rangefinder on 200+ yard shots, and hunted near a DRY waterhole. In terms of "escalating costs", my third Namibian safari cost EXACTLY the same as my 2013 hunt. The "Diminishing trophy quality" is also BS- my trophies from this year were BETTER than my hunts of 2012 and 2013. My taxidermy costs (using The Taxidermy Studio in Otjiwarango, Namibia) were EXACTLY the same as 2013. There were NO "airfare increases" from 2013 to 2015, in fact, it was $400 LESS this year flying British Airways ($1400 vs $1800). The "permits and paperwork" are all handled by my PH, and included in his daily rates. Cal's assertion that "nearly everyone in Africa (is) honing their skills to separate hunters from their money" is not only cynical but UNTRUE when dealing with reputable PH's. As to "lost luggage and theft" I carried on all my hunting gear in my Red Oxx bag and used a camp rifle supplied by my PH (same make and calibre as I own).The only reason I didn't hunt in 2014 with the same PH (Jan du Pleases of Sebra Hunting Safaris) was I had knee surgery for a torn meniscus. It's sad that a seasoned African hunter like Cal can be so negative toward an entire industry. Why buy and own expensive double rifles if you don't want to use them on African game? How about just finding a reputable PH like Andrew Baldry or Jan du Pleases and enjoying the great sport of African hunting without the Debby Downer attitude?

Bud:
Thanks for your response to my post.

In 2012 I offered you a sincere apology for my comments. It was not acknowledged. So, again, I will apologize for my past post and my critical comments. Just because I don't use much modern technology nor hunt at water holes I had absolutely not business being critical of you or anyone who does. So, my apologies. If accepted fine, it not it is what it is.

Second, I do stand behind my comments. My outlook is based on my experiences as are yours. I've had 13 hunts to Africa (1 Tanzania, 4 South Africa, 9 Zimbabwe) and 3 to Australia and a couple of additional trips to Zim for vacations. My first hunt was in 1994 (Zim) and my last were in 2013 (Zim, SA, Australia). I've had nearly a dozen PHs I've hunted with or shared a camp with as they guided others. Some are good men, others are not. I've heard jokes and off-color comments of prior clients (shooting and waking ability) and their spouses. One has said too many times, "We never had it in writing" when explaining how he got out of a situation where the client took a major loss on a trophy or an airline ticket for rebooking.

When I first hunted in 1994 a 40" buff was expected in Zim, Today most PHs state a "hard bossed buff" with no mention of size. Lion mane and elephant ivory are also on the decline (not hunting--poaching) but the facts are facts. I understand what I write of is based on free hunting, not game ranches in SA where the animals are raised in near captivity to be released for the hunter. I am also stating generalities, not one specific hunt where the hunter returns and then shoots a critter with horns a bit longer than his last experience.

Costs are escalating. Taxidermy fees, dip and pack, airport pickup and drop off (in the '90s these were included in the hunt price) freight costs for trophy shipments, etc., are all on the increase. When I see the nickel and dime methods many PHs use to increase profit margins I am disgusted. One PH I know very well states meat from game animals is his property. If used for bait, or if the back straps are taken to be eaten, he charges 5$ per kilo for the meat. Already mentioned are transportation fees that many years ago were part of the hunt package. Rifle rental, extra charges for some drinks are a couple of others that used to be part of the package. One PH demands trophy fees be paid 30 days prior to the hunt and animals not taken will be refunded. (Wire fees are paid both ways by the hunter). Note Mike Jines quote or 28K for a Moz. buffalo!

I have personally watched game auctions in SA where impressive trophies are sold for premiums that are passed on to the client and kept confined without food or water for a day or two, to be released the morning the "hunter" is comfortably at the hide waiting for the animal to come for a much needed drink. There is not need to elaborate on penned lions.

I know much of what I am critical of is done in the US with whitetail ranching (Sanctuary) and elk ranches but I don't hunt in the lower 48 much and this is not the forum for discussing them.

Permits and paperwork are clearly a pain. SAP form for importing firearms into SA is an 8-page PITA. It is not necessary and has done nothing to lessen crime in SA. It has made entry into SA time consuming and also expensive if one makes the choice to have a company or a B&B in SA fill out the form for the hunter. In Australia I spent two months trying to convince officials my .600 was not a military weapon. The .350 no2 Rigby I just imported from Australia could not be exported until I signed a form stating I would not use the double rifle for any chemical, nuclear, or biological warfare or for any unsafe nuclear testing. (I'm not stretching the truth here--I can email you the form should you wish to see it). Earlier this year there was some nonsense about registering firearms with the US gov't or IRS or something. It was dropped but more is on the way.

The airlines are another PITA. Airports differ in their attitude and regulations. Alaska is firearm friendly. New York is not. In NYC the airlines would not hand over my rifles for the flight back to Alaska unless I produced a permit. Try convincing a New York idiot a permit for any firearms is not required in Alaska! Two of my three flights to Australia saw my ammo weighed. If weighed in the locked container I would have been over the 5KG limit. A complaint to a manager allowed the clerk at the flight desk to remove my ammo and weigh it outside of the locked container. Bullets have been confiscated as ammunition when returning home (just the bullets only in a box), TSA officials have cut the locks off my gun case to examine my .600 twice and I was not allowed to view the examination. Then I'm told I must lock the case before it is put on the plane! In addition are size and weight limits that contribute to increased fees. I've only had lost bags once and lost three days of a Zim hunt. That's a pretty good track record but many are not so fortunate. Your statements about British Air would be different if you brought your own rifle with you and flew BA!

As to those in Africa skilled in separating those from their money, this would be too long to elaborate in detail. PHs, some well know here on AR, stretch trophy quality for the trophy fee, pressure hunters to shoot animals not sought after for the additional fees, expected tips (including some who state the tip amount expected prior to the hunt), price increases after the hunt is paid for, etc. I don't think I'm wrong here. The "come as a client, leave as a friend" should be reworded to "come as a client and you will be our friend as long you your spend money with me and tip well." I know that is not true of all, but is certainly true of some (many?). An article in the African Hunter titles "The Client" spells it out well.

So, Bud, again I offer my apologies for my remarks of 2012, but a "Debbie Downer" attitude is one that has been refined with several African hunts. I have had many good experiences there and am lifelong friends with many and, I may go back but the trip is not now an adventure any longer. It would be a fair guess to state that if your experiences covered 20+ years and with several PHs your outlook may not be as positive. Of course, your comments may have been biased by your BS filter for my posts. LOL. And, I just like doubles and know what I am getting into--taking them to Africa or not. (My .600 has been on four overseas hunts). In a few hours I will be taking a .500 Watson Brothers on a summer grizzly hunt for a few days.

Cheers,
Cal

PS. Please read the post above. Mike makes well thought-out and truthful statements.

Demand is relatively low, but prices remain high and seemingly inelastic. Something's gotta give.

Yes Michael, totally agree. I might be wrong but 28k in Moz for buffalo are in my perception not a competitive pricing. I considered elephant in Moz for a long time but the all-in costs were simply too high. There was also not a lot of room to manouvre. Now, since beginning of July elephant imports to EU are a thing of the past. I am not sure if there are enough Mexicans or Russians around to go for these hunts.

Costs have not risen in RSA or Namibia in the past year. In fact, fuel costs have dropped and food is about the same. Inflation is running around 4%.

In regards to the strengthening dollar, remember that outfitters peg their rates on the USD but they pay in Rand. Since last year, the USD has risen dramatically against the Rand. It has risen from R$10.4 to $1 USD to R12.5 to $1 USD - a 20% increase! So the typical excuse of "things are more expensive this year" does not wash.

The only reason why costs have increased is outfitters convinced themselves that demand is increasing and they paid through the nose for animals/quotas. Everyone was hoping that it was going to be a business as usual year. Hunting is down this year and for all the reasons previously discussed. The ripple effect is working its way through the industry. Animal auctions are down, prices are down, and I would assume that in another year or so the number of outfitters will be down as well.

But if you are interested in hunting, remember you have lots of bargaining power and year end unfilled quotas will be very attractive. If you are flexible and patient, you will probably find some amazing deals starting next month.

quote:

A great point on fishing. I guess after hunting for so long I am always shocked at how reasonably fishing trips are priced. I am going fishing on the Pacific coast in Mexico for a week and the all in price, lodging, meals, guides and boats, is less than $2000. Also considering a trip early next year to Andros Island to fish for bonefish. That trip to an outstanding fly fishing destination is under $4000 for lodging, meals, guides and boats. When you consider that you could do a week long fishing trip a month for what you generally spend on a two week hunt in Africa, it starts to make the fishing trips look awfully attractive for anyone interested in being outdoors but making their dollars go farther.

+1.

And don't forget wingshooting, there are some great adventures across the globe from South America to Europe for superb shotgunning. Not to mention across the good ol' USA, pheasant in South Dakota, quail in Arizona and woodcock and ruffed grouse in Maine. Great stuff!

One thing the african hunting industry needs to do is establish price transparency. Having all these lines that current clutter $10-50k hunt consolidate into a simple pricing structure - let the hunter/client know upfront what the all in cost of the hunt is. Build an accurate and correct expectation for the client.

What surprises me is that the outfitters don't focus on reducing the ancillary cost of a hunt. Why not consolidate shipping, dip and pack, charter flights - reduce the expense of the hunter so there is more money left to hunt. My guess is there is cut backs from all these ancillary services what exceeds the margin and profit from hunting.

These are all typical excess one sees in a bubble.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

Agree with the above thoughts.


So is international hunting in a lull for a couple of years or are we setting on a significant bubble?

Where do you see prices in two and five years?

I think we are in a bubble now. We have stretched pricing up 50 percent on dg hunts in last 5 years. There are some serious hunters - you cant be that in modern times with spending serious money - on this very thread saying they are cutting back and pricing makes no sense.

Lets see

Tanzania full bag in all reality is 3 buff and leopard hunt with 40 percent change on lion.

The best elephant hunting if you go by trophy weight (lets leave import out) is basically driving around national park boundaries waiting for one old guy to stray over.

There is great lion in bubye - people will pay for it.

Lord derby areas are in terrible political risk.

Plains game is great in fenced areas.

Good buff still there.

So overall hunting quality sucks relative to 25 years back.

We are slowly changing definition of a good trophy from size to age. That is a good move but was it driven by shooting out the size or decline in animal quality.

Add on top all the bs with travel, clearing, guns ect and a general social view that at least killing big five is a pariah activity in the new social media age. Has to be done on quite for anyone with a public profile - corporate ceos politicians celebrities ect.

I think prices have to adjust - become all inclusive packages. Outfitters start taking some cost in like road transfer dip pack ect. Throw in quota clean ups. Other special deals to higher dollar clients - multi game packages that are cheaper on the whole.

The stuff that went into line items get borne this time by outfitter instead of client.

Clients will adjust too - leave trophies behind, take pictures, take videos. Move from dg to pg.

African governments primarily and outfitters secondary squeezed hunters to the point. This thread did not get shot down by a few guys saying bear the price or don't hunt africa. There is a reason why - the complain is coming from old hands at the game. They are just saying its no longer the same value proposition.

I don't see a new generation jumping up and down. Killing Elephants and cats has become social unacceptable even if it is perfectly legal and in my view the only way to save large populations of these animals.

Like i said there are some living legends here on this site - Saeed, Larry Shores ect. The hunting they did starting just 2 decades back will not be replicable - the elephants are gone, rhinos too, cats too. So you have inflated prices for something that does not come any where stuff 20 years back. Shame on African governments.

I would not invest in a african hunting business or anything associated with it - south african game farms, south african game animals, anything in other parts of africa, a new budding career in african taxidermy. Long term i am bullish africa for its people economy growth but very negative its wildlife. Only light i see is there is a tough 5-7 years for mining and resources in africa - that makes the government more open to hunting.

My hunting - i am betting on south african blacks and white getting richer per capita and eating more biltong. There will also be eland to hunt for me. Also i think nambia and botswana will be fine for plains game out side of south africa.

Zim is zim. Hope save survives, bubye will. These two conservancies should be the poster child for what do in africa. But as steve shakari has said africa is wasted on the africans.

Mike

Thanks. Most of your thoughts mirror my own.


Things I would not want to be right now:

An outfitter who just paid a premium for a multiyear concession.

A breeder of color variations.

To have purchased a game farm in the last few years. Especially if accompanied by debt.

To be a young PH or outfitter trying to break into the industry.


Things I would want to be right now:

End of the year hunter for deals and quota.

Hunter/cull hunter on game farms. Areas that haven't had good rain are already having problems with carrying capacity.



In the last year I was told of an individual who hunted Tanzania in 1969 for 30 days. He got the Big5 and apx. 20 plains game. Total cost for the hunt, airfare, taxidermy and shipping was under 5k. Tanzania hunts have certainly exceeded inflation.


PG hunts in southern Africa are still a decent value. DG and open range PG hunts seem to be on a bubble. A significant correction may be coming.



The blood sports and their participants are dying. We are blessed to have been born and lived in the time period we have lived in and not 30 years later.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
One thing the african hunting industry needs to do is establish price transparency. Having all these lines that current clutter $10-50k hunt consolidate into a simple pricing structure - let the hunter/client know upfront what the all in cost of the hunt is. Build an accurate and correct expectation for the client.

What surprises me is that the outfitters don't focus on reducing the ancillary cost of a hunt. Why not consolidate shipping, dip and pack, charter flights - reduce the expense of the hunter so there is more money left to hunt. My guess is there is cut backs from all these ancillary services what exceeds the margin and profit from hunting.

These are all typical excess one sees in a bubble.

Mike

Not to generalize too much, but if all these guys were really good businessmen, well let's just say there would be a lot less professional hunters.

I agree with the observer fees being an utter ripoff at $100 per day not to forget

A right bend over and take it at $200 or above