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| One of Us |
I am interested to hear some opinions about the market for African safaris. Based on anecdotes, I think the market is dead. I see a lot of heavily discounted hunts on offer. Of course, outfitters and booking agents would be reluctant to admit a malaise in the market. Of course there are many markets here - the introductory "ear tag" safaris for beginners to the 21 day Selous safaris. Also, there are a lot of outfitters entering the market in some regions. I spend a lot of time analyzing financial and economic markets and I generally discard the worthless, gimmicked metrics published by government agencies (e.g. GDP, unemployment rate, velocity of money, etc.). I prefer to hear anecdotes from people operating in highly discretionary activities. If safari bookings are slow, it means I should wait a few months before booking because good cancellation opportunities may arise. Just interested to hear some opinions, thanks. | ||
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I just got back yesterday. My PH usually has a waiting list. This year business is 1/3 down. Blames it on economy, Ebola fears (dumb people don't realize how far away it is.) Larry Rogers | |||
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Last safari I was on earlier this year I was told bookings were way off and lots of unsold quota. Also noticed that the price went up 15% for next year. Full time professional trapper | |||
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Could some of the reasons be escalating costs, diminishing trophy quality, taxidermy and related shipping fees, airfare increases, seemingly endless permits and paperwork, nearly everyone in Africa honing their skills to separate hunters from their money, lost luggage, thefts, expected tips, etc.? Cal _______________________________ Cal Pappas, Willow, Alaska www.CalPappas.com www.CalPappas.blogspot.com 1994 Zimbabwe 1997 Zimbabwe 1998 Zimbabwe 1999 Zimbabwe 1999 Namibia, Botswana, Zambia--vacation 2000 Australia 2002 South Africa 2003 South Africa 2003 Zimbabwe 2005 South Africa 2005 Zimbabwe 2006 Tanzania 2006 Zimbabwe--vacation 2007 Zimbabwe--vacation 2008 Zimbabwe 2012 Australia 2013 South Africa 2013 Zimbabwe 2013 Australia 2016 Zimbabwe 2017 Zimbabwe 2018 South Africa 2018 Zimbabwe--vacation 2019 South Africa 2019 Botswana 2019 Zimbabwe vacation 2021 South Africa 2021 South Africa (2nd hunt a month later) ______________________________ | |||
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Airfare is the only thing that has not gone up more than 25 percent in last 5 years. Between 2010 and 2015 when I have started hunting africa prices are up 50 percent - daily rates, trophy fees, dip and pack, transfers, shipping trophy back and us custom clearning. In a world of low economic growth and anemic returns - look at the risk free rate on government bonds. Every year rates go up 10-15 percent. In European dominate markets that are now selling to us hunters - decline in euro is made up by increases in rates. The other side to the hunting equation - outfitters, booking agent, clearing agents ect - its a business. I just thinking pricing is getting to a point where it's just not worth it for experienced hunters. When a zim buffalo all in approaches a f-150 people start to rethink. Looks at all the Tanzania canceled hunts offered on ar over last 2 years. End of the day no one real needs to go 10k miles to hunt in africa. It's a discretionary choice. Also a lot of us african hunting originates in tx and other oil producing states. Any one looked at energy equities lately? Mike | |||
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Good luck booking a Zambian Lion for 2016. Just sayin', and they ain't cheap. ______________________ DRSS ______________________ Hunt Reports 2015 His & Her Leopards with Derek Littleton of Luwire Safaris - http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/2971090112 2015 Trophy Bull Elephant with CMS http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/1651069012 DIY Brooks Range Sheep Hunt 2013 - http://forums.accuratereloadin...901038191#9901038191 Zambia June/July 2012 with Andrew Baldry - Royal Kafue http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/7971064771 Zambia Sept 2010- Muchinga Safaris http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/4211096141 Namibia Sept 2010 - ARUB Safaris http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/6781076141 | |||
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Jim How many lion hunts are sold in Zambia ? I think buffalo hunts are the key meteric to look at - if they get cheap or we see a lot of cancelled hunts in zim Zambia Tanzania and moz it will be an indicator of the market. Some great value for money in hunting Botswana for plains game. Mike | |||
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I'm going to throw my hat in the ring with Cal's comments and some that follow. I'm not necessarily going to single out "diminishing trophy quality", but the rest of the list perhaps with the exception of air fares has put the breaks on it for me. At the moment I'm trying to get trophies back from a hunt in Mozambique last July. Every time I turn around someone wants another thousand dollars. I've trimmed my list of what I want sent back and someone is just going to have to dispose of the unwanted stuff. It's a shame and I'm not proud of it, but it's beyond reason at this point. I'm going back again this year and even though I've paid for licenses on a number of animals I'm not going to take them. I simply don't want to deal with the trophy export rip off. Some of you are willing to write a bigger check than I am but as much as I've tried I can't seem to get a straight forward answer on what it's going to cost and I'm not willing to put up with this any more. It may be a personal decision on my part and others may choose to look at it differently but that's the way it is. I won't even get into the whole issue of permits. I'm still not sure what Mozambique is going to do with the threat to raise rife import fees. | |||
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raising rates is the African answer to business slowing down. We have a large mall near the house, and they operate on that business principle. A few businesses leave the mall, and its' overflow foot traffic as the Hispanic Community Illegal Aliens Center. Mall response: raise the rates as the remaining businesses leases come due to maintain the revenue amounts. A few more leave, ditto the next year. It worked well enough a couple years ago, that the Mall got sold for not too much $$$. The cycle is starting again. It will be that way in Africa, as more and more airlines cease shipping trophies and increase the hassles of bringing firearms in and out. I have been blessed to make three trips to Africa. I may not be able to justify a fourth if this keeps on. RSA seems to be the best place now in terms of total cost. Maybe... Rich | |||
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No, the best quality hunts are booked usually well in advance. There are 4000+ safari/hunting outfits in South Africa, there are 400 or more in Namibia, there are 200 in Zim. RSA has a lot and hence competition is fierce there. I have trended toward the outfits that offer very good animals and experience, and frequently pay a premium for those hunts - so I can get 1x1 treatment, have the camp to myself and get the better dates. So, like everything else, you get what you pay for. I am headed out in fall 2017 for a hunt I booked in 2014. I was on a list to get that date. The safari business is good for the upper tier outfits. The others have to find a way to differentiate themselves from the pack. It is hard to do. | |||
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However, I agree that the trophy hassle is a bother. I quit bringing back most stuff. Plus I rent the PH guns most of the time. Saves hassle and I don't need to own so many. | |||
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The U.S. dollar is killing us Canadians. Period. | |||
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Bingo...........Africa has become an expensive PITA. | |||
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I for one was shocked or amazed at the total cost of my "affordable" hunt when it was all said and done I doubt I could justify a second trip ________________________________________________ Maker of The Frankenstud Sling Keeper Proudly made in the USA Acepting all forms of payment | |||
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| Administrator |
I think the major reason for this is the economic situation worldwide. Every point Cal has mentioned IS a reason for some people not going on safari. And African countries are not helping at all to improve this by all the silly regulations and endless paperwork work one has to go through to be able to hunt. Bloody hell, they are fast catching up with the beaurocracies of the West, instead of making it easier to visit and hunt. Not to mention their total lack of interest in doing anything about poaching. I think they should stop listening to the do gooders in the West who scream bloody murder when they do apply certain policies that actually work against poachers - but apparently step on the "human rights" of those poachers. We all know what so called "human rights" are doing in other countries! | |||
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The problem is african hunting experience is sold and marketed in bits and pieces. Day rate Trophy fees Tips Travel too and from Taxes and fees Dip and pack Shipping Clearing Taxidermy Shipping of trophies home from taxidermist Not all of these are disclosed upfront For me the irritation of hidden fees and constant wiring money is as bad as the cost. I will hunt africa but cut line items - plains game versus dangerous game, shoot less, take pictures - no more trophies. Mike | |||
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…and this is why the past few years more of my disposable income is going toward double rifles rather than hunting in Africa. With doubles, I know what I am getting. Cal _______________________________ Cal Pappas, Willow, Alaska www.CalPappas.com www.CalPappas.blogspot.com 1994 Zimbabwe 1997 Zimbabwe 1998 Zimbabwe 1999 Zimbabwe 1999 Namibia, Botswana, Zambia--vacation 2000 Australia 2002 South Africa 2003 South Africa 2003 Zimbabwe 2005 South Africa 2005 Zimbabwe 2006 Tanzania 2006 Zimbabwe--vacation 2007 Zimbabwe--vacation 2008 Zimbabwe 2012 Australia 2013 South Africa 2013 Zimbabwe 2013 Australia 2016 Zimbabwe 2017 Zimbabwe 2018 South Africa 2018 Zimbabwe--vacation 2019 South Africa 2019 Botswana 2019 Zimbabwe vacation 2021 South Africa 2021 South Africa (2nd hunt a month later) ______________________________ | |||
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Paperwork is a pain and I do not need to bring anything else home. I help a friend book hunts and attend a couple shows a year. Business was way down this year. For me, I've only been twice to Africa. One 17 day trip and I believe the last one was 19 days. For now, that's enough. Good chance I will not return. Although I really enjoyed the hunts, there is too much here in the states that I want to do. Dealing with dip and pack just about cured my Future Africa hunting!! | |||
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I went to Zim in 2012. and SA in 13, and 14. Skipped 15 and went to Alaska on a spring bear hunt. Currently am awaiting quotes for a 2016 safari. I wanted to hunt leopard, but in preliminary discussions, I have ruled it out. In rough numbers, by the time the cat is on my wall, "if" I get one, its $40,000 or so. That's insane in my view, whether I can afford it or not. NRA Patron member | |||
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I respect the lawss of supply and demand. On the other hand to pay c. 20 k USD for a buffalo hunt narrows the customer base at least in Europe with todays FX rates. Also, for this kind of money you can choose a high class Asian hunt i.e. for snowsheep, maral etc. | |||
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 Best regards, D. Nelson | |||
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Correct. A day spent in the bush is a day added to your life Hunt Australia - Website Hunt Australia - Facebook Hunt Australia - TV | |||
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And political. The IS lunatics are making a lot of people chary about going overseas. | |||
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anybody think of the average age of hunters? by the time most can afford it they are perhaps 45-50. it take years for most to save up enough to go to africa or anyplace else for that matter. i see even a elk hunt is offered for 12000. (my 1st one was 300) anyway hunters are getting older and saving for retirement, or are on a fixed income. that doesn't leave much room for expensive trips. while there are young guys out there, they have young families and the cash isn't available. hence age enters into the picture also | |||
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I believe it's always been middle to older age when kids are grown up, businesses are doing better and there is more disposable income. And maybe after divorces guys can and are able to do it. I think it's tough overall. I think , it all goes back to African politicians greed. They constantly come up with new fees and taxes for operators and we all know, the buck gets passed down the line all the way to the end. And just like anything else, it"ll sort itself out. " Until the day breaks and the nights shadows flee away " Big ivory for my pillow and 2.5% of Neanderthal DNA flowing thru my veins. When I'm ready to go, pack a bag of gunpowder up my ass and strike a fire to my pecker, until I squeal like a boar. Yours truly , Milan The Boarkiller - World according to Milan PS I have big boar on my floor...but it ain't dead, just scared to move... Man should be happy and in good humor until the day he dies... Only fools hope to live forever “ Hávamál” | |||
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One of the best things you can do to reduce costs is to just take pictures and forget the taxidermy. I've made 10 trips and did bring home plains game for mounts on my first two trips. Since then nothing but pictures. The costs of taxidermy, shipping, trophy clearance, dip & pack and all the other charges the Africans can dream up are just plain ridiculous. I've shot two Cape Buffalo and left them both in Africa. I'd really like to go on another Buff hunt, but not for $20K which is what it will cost to hunt in a decent area when you add in airfare, tips, gov't. fees, etc. I've also shot three Elephant bulls which were all non exportable. I've watched as the price of these hunts has constantly increased over the past few years by at least 100%. The bottom line is I'm not hunting in Africa in 2015. In 2014 I went on a great cull hunt for plains game in Botswana with Kananna Safaris but they ceased operations or I would have been back this year. I hope to make another trip in 2016, but that all depends upon what is available. Dangerous game will probably increase in price again and I've already shot all the plains game animals more than once so that kind of leaves me just looking at cull hunts. No need for any more trophies so might as well have just as much fun shooting non trophy animals. Tom Z NRA Life Member | |||
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I agree on two of the theories that have been presented as a reason for safaris left unbooked. The economy has certainly had an effect. For the last five years the huge uptick in the oil and gas business has had a serious impact on the availability and price of African safaris. There is a large hunter base involved in this line of business and they travel and hunt extensively. As the business has slowed, I feel it has had an impact as safaris have been canceled or rescheduled. Prices certainly followed the uptick in the oil economy, as they always do. Simple supply and demand. As Butch pointed out, I feel demographics are also playing a role. We are not recruiting enough young hunters into the ranks and prices of hunts are keeping them from participating. There are other, less expensive alternative adventure sports available. Look at the huge increase in free form rock climbing, mountain biking, base jumping, snowboarding, etc. that don't require the cash outlay big game hunting does. I see these trends in my son's friends. Simply put, our hunter numbers are decreasing and I don't see that trend reversing. So I see those two issues having a primary impact overall on hunting availability and prices in the future. Add bureaucrats wanting more $$ for trophy fees, concessions, taxes,etc. and outfitters fixed costs and it is tough to see prices falling dramatically. However, as hunts go unsold, do outfitters just cover costs and reduce daily rates or keep prices as is and hope margins generated off those who still hunt will be enough to keep them afloat to better times? A bleak outlook, but I think we are seeing a shift in the politics of our sport based on the two issues above. Just my $.02... On the plains of hesitation lie the bleached bones of ten thousand, who on the dawn of victory lay down their weary heads resting, and there resting, died. If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue, Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch... Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it, And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! - Rudyard Kipling Life grows grim without senseless indulgence. | |||
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Bwana, Have not been on a safari yet, but see the same trends with my son and his friends! | |||
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Elephant imports on hold has something to do with it as well .... all that quota is just sitting on the shelf ... I suppose some potential elephant hunters are booking other species eg buffalo (a buff hunt today not much less than what elephant used to sell for a few years back). But on the other side of the ledger Botswana closures mean more demand for the remaining African countries' quota of Elephant, Buffalo ... so who knows where the year will finish up. I don't see much discounted selling yet. Normally that starts in late Aug/early Sept. My point of ref is mainly Zim. Plains game is a separate market, driven by middle income hunters ie the economy, which isn't great. I have seen some discounting by SAA on airfares recently. Probably has to do with lower fuel prices as much as anything else. Russ Gould - Whitworth Arms LLC BigfiveHQ.com, Large Calibers and African Safaris Doublegunhq.com, Fine English, American and German Double Rifles and Shotguns VH2Q.com, Varmint Rifles and Gear | |||
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Russ, I believe you to be spot on with these comments. I canceled a bull elephant hunt this year due to the downtick in the oil patch and I don't have any current plans to go again at this time. Our oil biz company crew downsized from 117 people in early December 2014 to 2 in April 2015! When those types of downturns hit, people start pulling in their horns regarding discretionary spending and start putting their capital into developing alternate sources of income in case there is no rebound; either that or just hunkering down to weather the storm. Certainly not booking safaris that rival the cost of a fully loaded new truck. And you as a banker probably see first hand how long the coattails of the oil business are. Fewer oil patch jobs mean fewer jobs servicing the oil patch, and fewer jobs servicing those who service the oil patch, and so on and so on. Fewer construction starts because there are fewer folks willing to take on a mortgage (or able to qualify for a mortgage). Brand new hotels in every little out of the way town that used to be full for months on end and charging close to $300 per night, all now sit vacant with one or two cars in the parking lot and running specials at $49 per night, not to mention the restaurants surrounding them. It's a huge ripple effect. Of course there will be examples of niches that are less affected, such as Jim's mention of Zambian lion hunts. Those hunts are in short supply and there will always be folks that are independent of, or probably better stated as, less affected by current economic downturns, that are willing to pony up for those types of limited supply hunts. But as suggested earlier in this thread, a much better barometer is to look at what's happening with buffalo hunts. As they creep up above $15K in Zim, before ancillary costs are added in, those who have been saving for years to go on that "once in a lifetime safari" as well as those who make the frequent trips to get their "fix" of DG hunting, start looking at alternative ways to experience adventure that are not as financially painful. One of the well known PHs here on AR made a statement awhile back that "Oil prices don't affect the price of safaris in Africa". I remember chuckling when I read it and thinking to myself, "One way or another, it's a matter of time until it DOES"! | |||
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I think when you see the devastation taking place in the oil and gas industry it will have an impact on hunting. You will run into more oil and gas and other commodity driven income earners in african hunting than any other occupation. Silicon valley and wall street are not big african hunting places. The destruction in oil and gas prices has taken a lot of froth out of that sector - royalty payments, equity prices, wages and employment are all down and this looks like a long cycle. The hunting business has also become a volume business especially for buffalo and plains game. You turn off the volume of hunters and the fixed cost will kill operators. Majority of the hunting business is not set up on $75-100k wild lion hunt but a lot of 25k buff hunts with the lion as topper. Just look at the Tanzania hunts being offered on ar. Supply and demand keeps getting mentioned to justify prices. Keep raising prices 10-15 percent a year and at the same time income and wealth destruction in the main african hunting group - oil and gas industry and you will see real demand destruction. Maybe there will always be somebody to go hunt the 25 wild lions a year in zambia regardless of the price. But the 1000 people at $25 - 30k a pop for buffalo start withering away. Looks like in Tanzania even the lion guys have withered away. Look at west africa - euro down but hunt prices still up. Again I think if you book thru Europe for West Africa or namibia you will get totally different prices than if you booked thru us. Good think is af rican n hunting is purely discretionary - with diesel prices down - that fishing trip to Venice Louisiana looks much better value for money and you can fill your cooler up with tuna that 99.999 percent of non hunters prefer to taxidermy. Mike | |||
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+1 The froth is gone from the great shale oil boom - it is cost grinding manufacturing business going forward. We had a pronghorn hunt offered on ar at $9k based on its proximity to the permian basin oil activity last year. If someone in african in hunting business thinks prices, hunter income , us oil and gas sector and economy are irrelevant and they can keep increasing prices 10-15 percent a year they are in for a rude awakening. I have been told often by the hunting by professional that they are like drug dealers - once someone gets a taste of africa they keep coming back. I have told them they are like night clubs in Vegas - when times are good everyone gets bottle service - when times get bad it's like the California bottle crowd never shows up. Let's see what dsc and sci are like in 2016. Mike | |||
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I was wondering when this thread was going to surface. The number of people willing to hunt Africa at these prices is dwindling. When you hear veterans like Larry Sellers saying they are throttling back the message is clear. After ten DG hunts in twenty years I to am throttling back. The governments are killing the golden goose with added fees and restrictions and like any government they won't change course. Good luck to people like Buzz and Myles, I hope they can make a difference. I left one set of good ivory in Zim but I won't leave another. | |||
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Thanks for the posts, gentlemen. This seems to be a good summary of the market:
I am leaning towards doing this for the next safari:
What do you guys think about the marginal operators - those that received bad reviews here on AR (Juan Pace, Bushwhack)? Do you think they will even be able to stay in business in this market? | |||
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Reporting live from the Permian Basin, I couldn't agree more......... | |||
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I did not even think of this one. At $1.30 Canadian to $1 US, that is a steep jump from the 1.05 CAD to 1 USD a year ago. I have investments in both Canadian dollars and Australian dollars that lost a lot of money during the past few months. | |||
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. I second that! I've got one more safari left but only because I changed a lot of Canadian to US when it was at par. Once that is gone doubt I'll be donning many if any overseas hunts until it rebounds? Too bad it was fun while it lasted. That and prices for hunts are getting ridiculous. Yes you get what you pay for but come on! | |||
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I think it has less to do with rising costs in Africa and more to do with the economy of the US. Our debt exceeds our productivity and we have runaway inflation, the dollar has lost significant value. You can thank our magic negro for accomplishing his goal of making us equal to third world nations. | |||
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We are in a deflationary world. Government 30 year bonds at sub 3 percent. Declining commodity prices. Ain't anything about U.S. economy or global developed economies. It is about increasing prices for African hunting. Have kept raising prices 10-15 percent a year and moving cost to off price list add ons - dip and pack, road transfers, govt Levy, shopping ect. I think both governments and hunting business are involved. It's gone to a point where it will come back and bite. Case Tanzania. Just run the trend of 10-15 percent a year price increases for another 5-10 years and see where your buff hunt cost goes to 40-50k by 2020. The hunting industry response will be book now. The governments in Africa are main culprits and hunting industry is next. Problem is when it reaches a point of a hunt costing 1.25 times a Ford F-150 does your base buff hunter call it quits. Hunting is a discretionary activity - it's not necessary for anyone's existance to hunt africa. There will always be a class of people for whom prices don't matter but it's not 95 percent of the hunting world. 95 percent of hunting world is the people attend dsc. What are the discounted hunt offered for Tanzania now on ar - 30-40 percent off ? Suddenly all the line items like gun fees, road transfers ect are included by outfitter. It's demand side of the market reaching a point of saying it's just not worth it. Mike | |||
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I talked to four or five outfitters for the possibility of booking a PG trip for 2018 The prices I was quoted vs what I paid in 2014 told me that Africa would probably not be spending another dime of my money. It's a shame.....My wife and I truly loved our first and probably only trip ________________________________________________ Maker of The Frankenstud Sling Keeper Proudly made in the USA Acepting all forms of payment | |||
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The Accurate Reloading Forums THE ACCURATE RELOADING.COM FORUMS Hunting African Big Game Hunting African Safari Bookings - Slow/Impaired Market
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