Since mid 2013, the safari industry has felt the pinch, as we enter 2017, this is come to an ugly head, operators and PH's alike joust for clients at shows, on the internet and through agents.
Discount posts are more frequent and different tactics are being used to try and get hunts booked.

My questions is ' how low can prices go' !

Safaris are priced for a reason, that reason is NOT to make a massive profit, the reason is to enable operators, landowners and lessees the chance to run a viable business, one which we love, with the ultimate goal of putting resources back into the areas in order to safeguard them and the wildlife for future generations.
At current prices, we are seeing the dying throws of African safaris.
How much can be put back into areas for anti poaching, roads, education, research, restocking.... probably none, not without donor funds.
How long can we carry on making a loss before the towel is thrown in and when that happens, who is waiting to take on the big areas, to sign their name on the dotted line and guarantee payments to parks, communities and private owners, answer...no - one.

Elephant hunts are being given away...thanks to the anti hunters and USFW
Lion quotas are un sold thanks to anti hunters and the USFW.
As the above quotas are under utilised and populations grow, there will be more and more human wildlife conflict, leading to more and more ' PAC ' on the ground...leading to more fuel for anti hunting crowd.

Leopard are on the agenda next.

Not being ' the profit of doom', just laying it out there as myself and many others feel that we are seeing the end of an era as we know it.

Agreed. And I'm merely a consumer. Yet, I'm not happy with the way things are going. I'm more than willing to pay for anti-poaching, for community programs, etc.

Depends on your perspective I guess. A buyer might ask, how were safari operators making money before the prices began so dramatically escalating in the last ten to fifteen years? Many hunters have been asking for several years now, "how high can prices go", now we hear outfitters asking, "how low can prices go". Seems to me it is similar to the stock market, when it is overvalued, a market correction will eventually occur . . .

Buffalo hunts are a great example. Plenty of hunters are interested in and love hunting buffalo . . . but when a buffalo hunt gets to be a ~$17,000 hunt many hunters will move on to other hunts or find other outlets for their money.

I first said it several years ago when the chest-thumping, high fives and video clips were being criticized, repeated it last year when the anti-hunting shit storms gained momentum and will say it again: "It is the beginning of the end for African Hunting".

When I said times had changed and the need to mend our ways, the blind majority applied the "my right to hunt" rant, oblivious of the fact that the voice of the majority of anti-hunters were gaining momentum and touching nerves on the political front; the results of their efforts are staring you in the eye!

It is indeed the beginning of the end and its in high gear!

I sincerely hope you are wrong, Fulvio, but I'm afraid you may be correct.

Mike, I agree, prices escalated to beyond breaking point, this was due to greed on behalf of governments, parks and councils that pushed trophy fees up, pushed concession fees up. Combine this with ( and I speak for Zimbabwe ), dollarisation and 110% duty on most imported items and you get very high running costs.
In this case, ' market correction' will be the death of big concessions and reduced wildlife numbers and perhaps worst case scenario, hunting areas reverting or transforming into areas devoid of wildlife and populated with hungry villagers.

Shortsightedness on the part of government officials is surely a large part of the problem. Sticking with buffalo . . . my guess is that this year there are going to be a lot of unsold, or heavily discounted, buffalo. A rational government would set the trophy fee at a level to maximize the revenue by setting the price at a level where supply and demand intersect. Instead, they jack the trophy fee up to a point that creates more supply than demand and leaves a bunch of buffalo quota unsold. Foolish. Maybe a tough year or so will help them see the error of their ways . . . doubtful.

Since 2010 when I hunted my first buff in Zim prices have gone up close to 60-65 percent.

Trophy fees have doubled, daily rates have gone up 50 percent, dip and pack and other fees have all gone up 30-50 percent. Only thing that has not gone up is airfare.

A buff hunt is zim is simply not worth the money for me. The all in cost of a zim hunt in a top area approaches close to $30-$32 all in with basic taxidermy. Add another $5-$7k and I get a loaded f-150 instead.

It's a discretionary activity and we as American get no benefit of a strong dollar. Can't say the same about a non hunting vacation in South Africa.

Same time South African guys are and will be breeding buffalo - not the same hunt but there is always a trade off.

Better value is to go to Botswana and hunt eland for me.

Mike

Maybe hunting operators should comp their hunting vacations versus fishing vacations and other high end discretionary vacations. See how the price inflation has been since 2000.

How low can prices go - this is a pure discretionary activity - no one needs to go to Africa and hunt. The underlying hunter base has got decimated financially - look at oil and gas, mining, natural resource or cyclical industries. I am surprise there were not massive cancelations in 2015 - but the oil crowd is optimistic till they are belly up.

I also think investing in double rifles and high end bolts will have terrible returns.

Mike

As stated Africa hunt costs have risen greatly the last couple of years.

Personally I have shifted from annual Africa trips to Alaska and other hunting destinations.

I bought a house in South Dakota last year to hunt and fish for what a safari in Africa would cost me.

Governments have either gotten greedy pricing trophy fees and killed the golden egg laying goose or as ours has done set regulations making it impossible to import trophies from some counties.

Airlines refuse to transport trophies. Customs brokers are costly after a hunt to get your trophies home. Travel with firearms has been made difficult. Pain in the ass situations.

There are lots of factors. Everyone feels the pinch. In the end the wildlife will end up on the short side which is the real shame.

Hunting will never stop in Africa.

It may be that certain nations have their rights to hunt taken away from them by Lying Politicians, but hunting will continue.

We may end up hunting less desirable areas, we may be hunting war zones, but hunters dont just take up golf because of a few bumps in the road.

The unfortunate reality is that we will loose a lot of the marginal hunting areas due to lack of funds. Martin is right, hunts are expensive because conservation is expensive. More so with the ongoing fight against poachers.

Bottom line here, when prices drop, so do game numbers.

Good luck to the guys in Zim. They may need to start looking to the South African market to shoot more quota. The SA market does not have the same spending power, but they used to make up a sizeable chunk of the hunters coming into Zim before prices were driven beyond their means.

I knew things were going bad when some outfitters introduced a sliding scale on kudu.....

quote:

Hunting will never stop in Africa.

It may be that certain nations have their rights to hunt taken away from them by Lying Politicians, but hunting will continue.

Without foreign hunters funding the industry the outlook would be very bleak and I wouldn't be banking too much on your words as the kind of money being provided from local/resident hunters would not sustain the projects that go in hand with conservation and I doubt there are many outfitters/ranchers who would bear the expense from their pockets.

We have two shining examples (Kenya & Botswana)on what can and has happened in these 2 countries in particular which were among the best (if not the best) totally natural hunting destinations, that have come about by courtesy and compliments of the anti-hunting morons and bent politicians.

Do you honestly believe that anti-hunters give a flying fuck about conservation, anti-poaching and the funding which is derived from legal hunters towards this cause?
What financial contribution have they ever made to safeguard the interests of wildlife?

Offhand, I can't think of any discretionary spending activity or product that has increased in cost in the last 10 years as much as an African hunting safari.

On the other hand Zambia is doing well and most areas are fully booked.

quote:

Do you honestly believe that anti-hunters give a flying fuck about conservation, anti-poaching and the funding which is derived from legal hunters towards this cause?
What financial contribution have they ever made to safeguard the interests of wildlife?

Fujo

I dont follow?


How is this relevant to what I posted?

Of course they dont care, but hunters do and always will.

As I stated, we will loose a lot of habitat and the premier areas will survive on a fraction of what they did.

But if you think that a simple ban will stop people from hunting, you are wrong.

Hunting is as much a part of the human being as is eating or procreating.
When the world collapses and anarchy reigns, hunters will dominate and lead from the front.

This has been a bad year no doubt. I know a lot of people in the industry. A lot of them are whining to me about the lack of bookings. I get it. I told one that things happen that can cause this. For example, the stock market in January. On the way TO DSC, the market tanked. It would have been easy for many to lose enough on the plane flight to pay for a 21 day safari.

I have a friend who was just offered a permit for a Hangai Argali in Mongolia for $100,000 . They were previously $150,000 all because they could not sell the permits.

I was just called this week by a very well known PH in TZ. he has great areas. They were offering astounding discounts because hunts were not selling.

Times are tough for the industry. No doubt. I have gotten 5 requests to help anti-poaching in the last 30 days or so. The operators simply do not have the money.

Martin is right, no doubt. The hand prints of our government and many African governments are all over this. What is the answer? I do not know. It is my opinion that as long as African governments continue to conduct themselves the way they have, they and they alone bear a lot of responsibility for this debacle.

Not only have the prices gone up too high but there is not much game to shoot either.I paid a high full price to hunt an ele bull last year in Dande and there was not one bull of at least 30lbs to shoot.

quote:

But if you think that a simple ban will stop people from hunting, you are wrong.

Ian,

Who said anything about a "simple" ban? Kenya and Bots are not simple bans.
Kenya's wildlife is totally screwed and if Bots doesn't change frequency, it too will be heading south.

What I said in your referenced quote relates to necessary funds generated by the foreign clients part of which gets utilized in conservation-orientated projects, some of which are anti-poaching (directly related to wildlife protection), assistance to comunities in the hunting areas (boreholes, dispensaries, schools, etc which while being indirectly related) which educates these individuals in knowing the game in their midst is what is giving them these benefits, with a hope that they nurture the wildlife rather than poaching it.

When we see bans on key species (DG) being implemented by politicians and institutions who wouldn't know their ass from their elbow, it is a sure sign that the hunting comunity is begining to lose ground and such bans impact on the numbers of hunters who will turn their backs on Africa because of the ban on these key species.

We have evidence of this from some comments already appearing on AR and quite rightly so and even if prices are lowered, will only attract the group that is not interested in the key species anyway but at the same time will not generate the funds required to keep the projects related to conservation (mentioned above) at the same levels unless these monies are injected from private domors.

Martin you have been in my opinion part of the gold standard in hunting safari execution

if you are in trouble we are all in trouble

this thing could go lower and lower for a few years forward.

consumptive tourism is weathering what some call the perfect economic storm.

there will be damage coming out the other side no way around it

quote:

I knew things were going bad when some outfitters introduced a sliding scale on kudu

That and the "unbelievable" discounted hunts and speial packages appearing in that section.
When hunts are offered at throw-away prices you can rest assured that not a single red cent goes towards comunity assistance and anti-poaching ventures; plain and simply put, the outfitter offering such hunts is probably just breaking even, paying his bills and wages and keeping his business alive hoping for sunnier days ahead.

That hunt in Dande East was not indicative of an overall game issue George, just a bit of plain bad luck. I too had a hunt close to your experience there but got a 45lb er on the last day (only bull we saw). That's just hunting sometimes

Point is, however, there have been a lot of escalating pressures both economically and politically.
I had a friend just back in say 2004 do a full bag 21 day Lion, buff sable etc etc in Matetsi with Alan Vincent for how much would you guess?....25-27k at the time. Same hunt today? It's close to triple/quadruple the cost in 12 years. Tanzania!!! Through the roof.....concession fees for operators....through the roof (no doubt the greedy Governments led by Tanzania caused much of this)
As Mr Mines correctly stated, this is a market correction and if you are an excellent operator like many on here like Martin...it hurts!!
The same will happen on sheep hunts and others too

This too shall pass.....

quote:

Originally posted by fujotupu:

quote:

But if you think that a simple ban will stop people from hunting, you are wrong.

Ian,

Who said anything about a "simple" ban? Kenya and Bots are not simple bans.
Kenya's wildlife is totally screwed and if Bots doesn't change frequency, it too will be heading south.

What I said in your referenced quote relates to necessary funds generated by the foreign clients part of which gets utilized in conservation-orientated projects, some of which are anti-poaching (directly related to wildlife protection), assistance to comunities in the hunting areas (boreholes, dispensaries, schools, etc which while being indirectly related) which educates these individuals in knowing the game in their midst is what is giving them these benefits, with a hope that they nurture the wildlife rather than poaching it.

When we see bans on key species (DG) being implemented by politicians and institutions who wouldn't know their ass from their elbow, it is a sure sign that the hunting comunity is begining to lose ground and such bans impact on the numbers of hunters who will turn their backs on Africa because of the ban on these key species.

We have evidence of this from some comments already appearing on AR and quite rightly so and even if prices are lowered, will only attract the group that is not interested in the key species anyway but at the same time will not generate the funds required to keep the projects related to conservation (mentioned above) at the same levels unless these monies are injected from private domors.

Fujo.. I don't think you can lump Kenya and Botswana in the same boat. IMO Botswana will fare much better than Kenya with a much lower human population combined with the best government anti poaching operation on the continent. Was the hunting ban foolish.. Yes but in general I don't see Botswana squandering their wildlife resources hunting or no hunting.

I guess that it is just hunting when your PH tells you that he has not seen a bull track in the area for months and that he will refuse to take a client their hunting.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
Since 2010 when I hunted my first buff in Zim prices have gone up close to 60-65 percent.

Trophy fees have doubled, daily rates have gone up 50 percent, dip and pack and other fees have all gone up 30-50 percent. Only thing that has not gone up is airfare.

A buff hunt is zim is simply not worth the money for me. The all in cost of a zim hunt in a top area approaches close to $30-$32 all in with basic taxidermy. Add another $5-$7k and I get a loaded f-150 instead.

It's a discretionary activity and we as American get no benefit of a strong dollar. Can't say the same about a non hunting vacation in South Africa.

Same time South African guys are and will be breeding buffalo - not the same hunt but there is always a trade off.

Better value is to go to Botswana and hunt eland for me.

Mike

Hi Mike,

Hope you're well. I completely agree with you here. Whether the prices have inflated due to the operators or the game departments, the prices have inflated to a point to where I just assume go do something else.

I have many passions in life pulling me and my discretionary "vacation" money in differing directions.

Personally, I have turned to South America and her endless fishing possibilities. I can do three, week long trips all in for the price of a single buffalo hunt in Zimbabwe. The adventure is the same, the pursuit is as exciting or perhaps even more.

No dipping and packing
No trophy shipping
No taxidermy
No jet lag
No silly gun permit issues

If sport hunting in Africa is to remain viable, the house, in total, must put itself in order.

Steve

steve

now you have got it spot to right on

i will just add to that one point of order

this is the suggestion that you respect your customer and serve him with class and dignity you might wish for yourself if you were spending such great sums of money on completely discretionary activities

i don't see that lack of appreciation and breeding on every continent quite so much as one might in the southern africa ph pool -- not all of them but sadly more than a few

hopefully we will lose some of that element in this shake out

Mike you are right on rifles

wr double rifle booth guys at the sci show this year saying privately to other custom gun makers '' you can't give a double rifle away this year''


one of our western us gun makers '' all the heavy rifle orders have dropped way off ''


we are in a sea change for sure

quote:

Originally posted by stradling:
steve

now you have got it spot to right on

i will just add to that one point of order

this is the suggestion that you respect your customer and serve him with class and dignity you might wish for yourself if you were spending such great sums of money on completely discretionary activities

i don't see that lack of appreciation and breeding on every continent quite so much as one might in the southern africa ph pool -- not all of them but sadly more than a few

hopefully we will lose some of that element in this shake out

Mike you are right on rifles

wr double rifle booth guys at the sci show this year saying privately to other custom gun makers '' you can't give a double rifle away this year''


one of our western us gun makers '' all the heavy rifle orders have dropped way off ''


we are in a sea change for sure

You got that right. We Americans, and clients in general, are treated like ATMs. I will add this about the fishing deal, I am basically on my own down there. I do not have a PH telling me what to do. Our "guides" are Native Indians (Wai-Wai) they do not aid you in any way. They simply go where you point. Your skills as an angler will dictate your level of success.

Africa, anyone with a checkbook and a pulse can be successful. I find that more fulfilling than the hunting for that reason alone.

quote:

Ian,

Who said anything about a "simple" ban? Kenya and Bots are not simple bans.
Kenya's wildlife is totally screwed and if Bots doesn't change frequency, it too will be heading south.

What I said in your referenced quote relates to necessary funds generated by the foreign clients part of which gets utilized in conservation-orientated projects, some of which are anti-poaching (directly related to wildlife protection), assistance to comunities in the hunting areas (boreholes, dispensaries, schools, etc which while being indirectly related) which educates these individuals in knowing the game in their midst is what is giving them these benefits, with a hope that they nurture the wildlife rather than poaching it.

When we see bans on key species (DG) being implemented by politicians and institutions who wouldn't know their ass from their elbow, it is a sure sign that the hunting comunity is begining to lose ground and such bans impact on the numbers of hunters who will turn their backs on Africa because of the ban on these key species.

We have evidence of this from some comments already appearing on AR and quite rightly so and even if prices are lowered, will only attract the group that is not interested in the key species anyway but at the same time will not generate the funds required to keep the projects related to conservation (mentioned above) at the same levels unless these monies are injected from private domors.

Fujo
I agree with your outlook.
Perhaps I was not clear in what I wrote.

My post went to the point that there will still be hunting. The anti hunting movement may stop a specific country etc from being able to import. But one way or another animals are going to be killed. Either poached indiscriminately or hunted where clients can be found.

If the anti hunters think they are going to stop animals being killed, they are wrong.

If anything they have just removed the only control mechanism that was stopping mass slaughter.
Without an established hunting conservation model the areas outside of mainstream photographic areas will be sacrificed.

Has anyone ever thought that perhaps these anti hunting movements are funded by Western mining and mineral exploration groups. Equally so the Chinese.
With conservation areas vacant they can pillage that which is below ground.
Look at Botswana. They have just sold the fracking rights inside of national parks.

All the big 5 prices have gone way up over the last few years. Buffalo were always affordable for the average guy until the last 5 or so years. I've shot two Buff and would like to do another hunt, but not at the current prices.

I know several prospective hunters who have asked me about Buff hunts. As soon as I tell them it will cost around $20K (without taxidermy) they quickly take that hunt off their bucket list. I know you can do a RSA ranch hunt behind a fence for less but that type of hunt doesn't interest many people, including me.

If a PH can drive around in in a $80,000 Land cruiser then things are not too bad.

quote:

Originally posted by shootaway:
I guess that it is just hunting when your PH tells you that he has not seen a bull track in the area for months and that he will refuse to take a client their hunting.

George, Simply ask for your money back. No excuses there.

Every cost has gone up accross for the board for the last few years and in business in the US if you were not in the oil business you had to learn to work leaner to survive. Part of the increase in costs was due to the specialitie nature based in what China was doing or perceived to be doing in their run up of establishing themselves as a player in manufacturing for the world. During this time the window to Africa began to open to the conman man who suddenly had a chance to not be so common in the new economy that was emerging. Unfortunately their was a falseness in the base this new economy was based on and had been slowly taking back the gains to something substsainable. In the meantime we are left to find the true value of things based on the what the market truly is. The common man will be missed in all facets because he helped pay for the extra services that were able to be funded out of this new economy. Now as in Africa governments that have always been inept have to have the vision to see what is actually happening. Fat chance. In Texas right now oil is obviously a big player but I'm seeing wages start to increase or be more competitive in areas that have been held stagnate to compete in this new economy that is including other countries in on the manufacturing of goods. Now this work force on the lower end is having some competition for their services which had led to wages going up. I'm seeing an increase in the packaging industry locally as well. This all happened while oil was hurting this flip flop has shown a trend.
I'm not sure if it is substsainable or what is real anymore.

But for Africa to work you need the conman man. If not we go back to the Africa that was something of an elitist adventure
But the comman man now has learned of his value and that he can experience more places locally or around the world and he doesn't have time for hassles. The experience has to be fun and not as complicated or expensive as it had become
We are seeing that Africa may not be able to afford now to go back to the way it was before. If it has to depend on the excess money from places like big oil at this time it will be a tough one to wait out to find out what part of the last several years was real or pure speculative driven.

I'm not seeing an economy that is as falsely constructed as we move forward as was in our rear view mirror
It's been changing for a lot of us for a while it's just catching up to the rest now.

Everything has a value and that value can only sustain so much suckling from it. Africa may have to start being smarter on the world stage in getting sustainable commerce and manufacturing going as is seen in other third world economies to pay for some of their programs that they are depending on hunters to foot the bill.

every business has its ups and downs - a couple of old sayings come to mind
survival of the fittest
don't kill the goose that lays the golden egg

I disagree with much of this. I sold a buff to a chap who is going to spend a week with me opening up camp and another who will only pay on success. If times are hard abroad then we simply adapt to suit.

My Leopard have also been sold on success because I have proved the theory of what you pay for is what you get.

I keep my camp comfortable but without the trimmings. I don't do starters or desserts and my staff are a bit rough around the edges. Fine whiskey and a flush toilet are often all that you need to compliment a safari.

My partnered community receives 20 percent gross income. We share the risk in business.

This is a simple musing of a guy who's never been to Africa . . .

I wonder if the overall result will not be a substantially higher cost of safaris in the future. . .

Here's my thinking (I don't claim to be an economist): If the industry busts to some extent, as some have predicted on this thread, and as a result, many operators cannot operate their areas any longer, then eventually those animals are gone. Poached or meat, those animals and areas are gone

Hunting continues, but now in far fewer locations, with fewer animals, few operators.

The pendulum swings, and now demand outstrips supply, and costs go WAY up.

Like I said, a simple musing from a guy who's never been to Africa

I do know this. . . I for some reason really want a lesser kudu. I don't understand it either. I priced a hunt by a popular operator. I wanted to buy a 21 day TZ license, and hunt 10 days, just for a lesser kudu. Maybe other plains game if a lesser kudue was taken early, but none of the other "glamour" game. The total cost quoted to me was $76,000 before trophy fees.

I don't know anything about Africa, but that seems ridiculous. I don't have the email anymore, but as I recall, SUBSTANTIAL portions of that amount were government concession fees, and god knows what else.

Has there been any attempt by the Zimbabwe outfitters to band together, go to the government and tell them that they have to drop their concession and trophy fees in order for the hunting industry to stay economically solvent?

I booked a hunt through Wendell less than ten years ago for a 10 hunt in Moz that included the buffalo trophy fee and it was $ 8,750 all inclusive except for the air charter. Today the same hunt would come in at least $ 25,000. I love to hunt DG, but at these prices it just isn't worth it anymore.

Perhaps some countries will learn the lesson that TZ did. Increase those prices enough and people WILL stop coming.

quote:

Fine whiskey and a flush toilet

Sounds like the beginning of a good song.

Jim

I don't believe there are currently give away prices anywhere.Show me a place to hunt an ele bull where you are almost certain to bag one over 35lbs that does not cost over 40 000.Same goes for buff in a good area where you stand a good chance of getting a nice dagga boy that does not cost 1300 a day not including trophy fee and everything else.