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The "developed world" has next to nothing to worry about currently. Anyone canceling a hunt in Zim or RSA or even West Africa falls on the spectrum ranging from "really paranoid" to "overly cautious". That said, I acknowledge that everyone has their own risk tolerance. Now, that does not mean that the situation will stay as it is. Most assuredly it will not. In my opinion, as someone who has lived in the third world for a decade now, the US does not need to worry about big outbreaks originating on flights direct from West Africa. How many people fly from Liberia to the US (or even Europe?) daily? I would bet very few and even fewer of them are at any risk for Ebola. Even if a significant outbreak (say 50 people?) did happen in a place like NYC or Dallas or Atlanta from something like this, I think US health infrastructure could handle it, get people quarantined, and treated. Again, that is not to say things will stay as they are. The real problem will come when infected people from Liberia or Guinea etc. travel within Africa (MUCH more likely) and wind up infecting a bunch of people in a place like Kinshasa, Cairo, Addis, Dar Es Salaam, or Nairobi. In large population centers where hygiene isn't exactly top priority for most and in which people regularly come into contact with one another (and tourists) you can bank on that moderate outbreak of 50 turning into 500 really quickly...which will suck because these places cant handle the 50 much less the 500. The worst part is that people tend to travel from or through these continental hubs on their way "home" which is often Europe or North America. Further, people who live in these cities are more likely to be of a socioeconomic class that travels. See where this is going? In short, listen for the canary in the coal mine. As long as Cairo or Addis hasn't had an outbreak, things will be fine in the US or Europe. When Cairo or Addis gets hit, it will be a few short weeks before lots more people in Europe get sick. At that point it's "Katy bar the door". JMHO | |||
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Spot on. Marius Goosen KMG Hunting Safaris Cell, Whats App, Signal + 27 82 8205387 E-mail: info@huntsafaris.co.za Website: www.huntsafaris.co.za Skype: muis19820603 Check us out on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/kmghuntingsafaris Instagram: @kmg_hunting_safaris | |||
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The good news for hunters is there will be a plethora of significantly reduced hunts as folks panic over nothing. The bad news for outfitters is it's 9/11 all over again. Hopefully there will be more open seating on Delta business class between ATL and JNB for us gold members.  ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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Correct. As I noted above, everyone has their own risk tolerance. I was hunting in Zim starting late October 2001. Between 9/11 and "War vets" on the farm, people thought I was nuts. Shot some cool stuff though!  | |||
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Risk tolerance is a very good way to look at this. I almost always travel with my wife, thinking about her security is tantamount for me. Some things I may risk on my own I will never allow her anywhere near. LORD, let my bullets go where my crosshairs show. Not all who wander are lost. NEVER TRUST A FART!!! Cecil Leonard | |||
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Something doesn't sound right here, my understanding was that protective gear gets doused with disinfectant before removal. Perhaps the infectious disease experts could elaborate as it appears that doctors and nurses are at higher risk than CDC is letting on. I hunt to live and live to hunt! | |||
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Likely the exposure occurred while removing the isolation gear. You are talking mask, gloves, gown etc. and they must be removed carefully in the proper order to avoid exposure to any fluids on them. ______________________ DRSS ______________________ Hunt Reports 2015 His & Her Leopards with Derek Littleton of Luwire Safaris - http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/2971090112 2015 Trophy Bull Elephant with CMS http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/1651069012 DIY Brooks Range Sheep Hunt 2013 - http://forums.accuratereloadin...901038191#9901038191 Zambia June/July 2012 with Andrew Baldry - Royal Kafue http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/7971064771 Zambia Sept 2010- Muchinga Safaris http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/4211096141 Namibia Sept 2010 - ARUB Safaris http://forums.accuratereloadin...6321043/m/6781076141 | |||
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True, the plane ride could be risky ,BUT NOT 1 of the passengers traveling with the sick Texas gent got infected. Only health workers , I don't think it's going to get out of control. Only time will tell, but I think this is a mole hill being turned into a mountain Dave Davenport Outfitters license HC22/2012EC Pro Hunters license PH74/2012EC www.leopardsvalley.co.za dave@leopardsvalley.co.za +27 42 24 61388 HUNT AFRICA WHILE YOU STILL CAN Follow us on FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/#!/leopardsvalley.safaris | |||
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Perhaps. Maybe you can enlighten the World Health Organization (WHO) on that theory. AP is reporting from a regional health conference today in Manila that: "MANILA, Philippines (AP) -- The World Health Organization called the Ebola outbreak "the most severe, acute health emergency seen in modern times" on Monday ..." See:http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_WHO_EBOLA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-10-13-07-29-36 | |||
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At this point in time I'm going to err on the side of caution. I will absolutely not lick anyone in the near future nor get on an airplane to anywhere unless it is a necessity. LORD, let my bullets go where my crosshairs show. Not all who wander are lost. NEVER TRUST A FART!!! Cecil Leonard | |||
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Again, a little perspective: 1918 Spanish Flu - 40% of the world population infected, 50 million to 100 million dead. 1957 Flu - 70,000 in the US died. 1968 Hong Kong Flu - 33,800 in the US died. 2009 Swine Flu - 90 million infected, 19,000 dead. While Ebola is scary, mother nature has done a whole lot worse. In regards to the WHO, they predicted 50 million potential deaths as a result of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. So probably prudent to wait before panicking. Never let a good crisis go to waste, especially when there are potential funding dollars at stake... ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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According to the WHO, the sky is always falling! Who finances the WHO? The UN. | |||
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I bet tons of folks are canceling and postponing. Of course the outfitters and agents are saying and will be saying don't worry, come on over.  Hunting: Exercising dominion over creation at 2800 fps. | |||
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Opus1, Thanks for sharing, it is great to see actual figures! As I stated before it has now become a First world problem and it will be taken care of soon Phillip du Plessis www.intrepidsafaris.com info@intrepidsafaris.co.za +27 83 633 5197 US cell 817 793 5168 | |||
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Here's what is wrong with that way of thinking. Looking at the more modern flu epidemics...this is a disease that generally doesn't overwhelm health care infrastructure because, unless the case is looking really bad, there really isn't a whole lot to be done..."go home...get lots of fluids, rest, etc". The thing with Ebola is it is a disease that DOES require treatment AND my guess is, even if it didn't the fatality rate alone would result in people being hospitalized just to keep them from infecting others. This references the real problem...the fatality rate. 10-20% of the US population gets the flu every year. That means 30-60 million people get the flu in the US every year and only a tiny percentage die...max of about 50,000 in a year over the last half century. So, the flu is great at reproduction but not at killing. A pretty rational virus really. Ebola has, as yet, been an irrational virus...great killer...but rubbish at reproduction at least partially because it seems to take hold in populations that are isolated and, frankly, "don't get out much". Fine...except that seems to be changing as the world is getting smaller. Even in rural backwaters of Africa, people can now either travel or come into contact with those who do. That is what has people nervous I suspect. What if this "dumb" virus "perceives" an evolutionary opportunity when exposed to a new sort of host environment. As an example, I believe it is cholera that has two strains...one common in one type of host population and one uniquely evolved for another type of host population. Scary shit. Back to the issue at hand...think about it this way, if Ebola (almost 70% fatality rate) infected only 10% of the people the flu gets in a year, (best case scenario 1% of the US population) it would still kill (assuming that 70% fatality rate) over 2 million people that year. Now, best case, lets assume that fatality rate is doubled by the reality that most cases within the data set took place in third world countries with crap health care. That still amounts to a million dead people in America when the virus (best case) only infected 10% of the numbers the flu infects in a given year. Sorry, that is enough to get my attention. I don't think the sky is falling...but numbers like that ain't nothing to sneeze at either. | |||
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The problem is there's a lot of assumptions going on and a whole lot more blind guessing and that's even from the people we expect to have a handle of this; namely the CDC and the WHO. Unfortunately, both organizations have failed miserably in the past to get it right, so I am not really expecting any greatness out of them this time. Ebola escaping the back woods of dark Africa will probably be situation normal moving forward. Once this outbreak dies down (and it will) we will see it popping up more often and in more developed/populated areas. Fortunately the virus is fairly virulent so if you can get past 21 days without a new case, then outbreak solved. If you can convince the savage that eating dead monkeys that they trip across in the bush is not manna from heaven, and maybe just a little abstinence for shitsandgiggles, then there is a possibility further outbreaks will not happen. However, I believe we all know that's wishful thinking... About the only fortunate thing is, this outbreak is large enough to get the attention of Big Pharma. They smell $$$ for the first time and an Ebola cure and prevention will come along shortly. In the mean time, don't play with dead or dying things... ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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Nice thought. But easier said than done. We haven't even talked about transmission via semen after "clinical recovery." This is what the Public Health Agency of Canada (since a lot of people don't trust the CDC or WHO at the moment) has said about communicability: "COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, body fluids or organs, contain the virus. Ebolavirus has been isolated from semen 61 to 82 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery." See: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab...s-ftss/ebola-eng.php Not a very comforting thought. | |||
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So, don't lick people on airplanes, or semen anywhere. "If you’re innocent why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”- Donald Trump | |||
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And ... Pray to God that a loved one isn't screwed by some guy who was lucky enough to have made a "clinical recovery" but continues to be the wholesale distributor ... but just doesn't know it. | |||
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Of all the stuff a "loved one" can get from screwing "some guy" ebola ranks really far down the list. Crikey, how do ya'll get out of bed every morning, you're scared of your own shadows! "If you’re innocent why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”- Donald Trump | |||
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 Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend… | |||
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True. But the vast majority of the "stuff" you can get from screwing some guy won't kill you or your neighbors or people who come in close contact with you ... in a matter of days or weeks. What is frightening is some guy thinks he is "clinically recovered" and he passes it to one person, who then passes it to another, who passes it to another, and on and on ... That is not being scared of one's own shadow ... that is being scared of how easy the virus can be spread by people who don't realize that they are infected and have none of the outward symptoms. | |||
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If you are an indigenous African without access to treatment and appropriate medication you have a chance of dying of malaria. If you are Not indigenous and taking prophylactics you have little chance of even becoming infected, if you do you have an extremely high chance of being cured. Less chance, but a good chance even with cerebral malaria. There is no protection from ebola, other than distance or gear plus procedure, and the death rate is 70%, which may or may not be constant with western treatment or without. The typical ebola victim infects 1.5-2.5 additional people and ebola infections grow at tremendous rates as a result. Malaria victims infect no one directly. Lots of differences. When ebola leaps into western cities the result of failure to isolate the virus in West Africa there will be chaos. Even with the supposedly best gear and practices we have one US victim from the original in Dallas. That nurse wasn't even on the watch list. Wait until those on the watch list or the index case's family members begin to become symptomatic.... JPK JPK  Free 500grains | |||
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somehow, i have to think the doctors returning from west Africa who have been infected and successfully treated( all 1-2 of them- the nurses are female with a low sperm count) are not have wild, unprotected sex after they get out of the hospital. but, i guess anything is possible....  Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend… | |||
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if it grows at such a tremendous rate, why are there only about 8000+ cases 7 months after the initial outbreak??????? and the treatment success is more like 50-60%, not a 70% mortality rate. and if you look at the success rate of those who have returned to the US- IT'S A LOT BETTER!. but never let facts stand in the way of a good hysteria. i guess we should just quarantine Dallas and surrounding areas. can't be too careful- who knows who is screwing who Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend… | |||
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With something over 1.5 million in-hospital infections every year, nearly 10% of which are fatal, it's pretty obvious that infection-control "protocols" are not our medical professionals' strong suit. My experience dealing with chemical contamination leads me to believe that insufficient decontamination prior to unsuiting is the most likely weak link in the Dallas case, and probably many of the cases among medical folks in Africa. We solved it on my watch by decontaminating twice, every time, but we were only dealing with nerve agents. As for sperm as a potential vector, it is amusing, at least. A lot of Africans will no doubt die from this outbreak, quite possibly breaking into six figures before it's done, but I'll still bet more Americans die this year from trees falling on them than ebola. And in a year, or three, there will be another outbreak in Africa. It is a natural disease, with a natural reservoir, and has probably been periodically killing folks for a very long time. The only things that are new are mobility and communications. Sick people (and bush meat)go to town instead of dying at home, and now we hear about it. So some can panic. "If you’re innocent why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”- Donald Trump | |||
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8,400 cases of Ebola infection, 4,000 deaths and 7.2 trillion people on the planet. Not really sure it's time to panic... ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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This is from October 10: At least 4,033 people have died of Ebola in seven countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Friday. More than 8,300 total cases have been confirmed. Recall that the death of an ebola victim trails infection by roughly six weeks. Recall symptoms trail infection by roughly three weeks. Recall that it is believed that a significant number of deaths prior to the confirmation of the outbreak are attributable to ebola. The WHO numbers from the 10th at first glance would suggest a death rate of about 50%, but that understates the death rate significantly because death trails symptoms by roughly the same period symptoms trail infection and because of the the unattributed deaths before confirmation of the outbreak. By your count 50% of current patients will die. In 18 days compare the number of known deaths to the 8,300 reported cases from the 10th and you will have your death rate (though it will still be under reported due to ebola deaths not properly attributed to ebola, especially those from prior to the confirmation of the outbreak.) BTW, the 70% death rate is from the WHO. The statistic that an average of 1.5-2 additional persons are infected by an ebola victim also comes from the WHO. Using 1.5, the number of current ebola infections is somewhat less than 17,000 with most as yet asymptomatic. [8,300 x 1.5 + the "original" 8,300 - 4,000 known deaths.] Using 2 the number is near 21,000. In the US, with the best health care possible (maybe,)IIRC, one male doctor and one female nurse returned from West Africa with ebola; the doctor lived, the nurse died. The man from Liberia died. A cameraman and a nurse in Texas are hospitalized. At best, that is a 40% death rate, but again, death trails infection by three weeks or so. So lets see how the Texas nurse and the cameraman are doing in a couple of weeks or so.... Those unfamiliar with the mathematics of the problem are under stating the threat. Ever seen the often reported results of investing a penny over 30yrs at some typical annual interest rate? Try looking at what happens when the interest rate is 150% and compounds every three weeks, or 200% compounding over the same period. JPK Free 500grains | |||
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A little correction, the doctor and nurse (Kent Brantly, MD, and Nancy Writebol) that were being treated at Emory University hospital here in Atlanta have both been discharged (both lived). In addition, there's a third doctor infected with Ebola at Emory that's currently under treatment and expected to survive. That sorta changes your percentages, assuming correctly that I understand how math works. As I have said many times before, the hysteria surrounding the illness far exceeds its reality. ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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No, human habitation on earth is not threatened, but peace and stability where outbreaks occur is. The world economy - in piss poor shape already - is. We will have outbreaks here, the math is pretty inescapable. The more likely since the fool in the Whitehouse is doing his best not to protect the American people. Racism is already alleged to be the cause of the index patient's death... Stock up on ammo. JPK Free 500grains | |||
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It does change the US death rate from 66% to 33% for those patients who have had the virus run its course. That is good news. I don't think it changes the threat of civil unrest though. JPK Free 500grains | |||
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You of course are absolutely correct, never underestimate human stupidity and mass hysteria. Facts and reality really do not matter when panic sets in. ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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Where and how many? They are not reported in the news. Remaining cases reported include the Minnesota case - the reporter, and the Dallas case - the nurse. How long have the other patients been symptomatic? JPK Free 500grains | |||
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Not to be too negative, and all of the above is correct, but it is also happening in an environment with VERY few cases and therefore hospitals are able to dedicate incredible resources to just one or two patients. Increase the number of infected from 2 to just 200, the level of focused care will decline, and the mortality rate probably starts inching back up. | |||
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while I am not ready to panic, I do not think the CDC or anyone else is being honest.It may mutate anytime and who says it is not airborne now.They have been lying to us for years about many things I do not trust them. | |||
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Lets not forget about semen and vaginal secretions. Take two aspirin for the fever and have sex before morning.  | |||
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I DEFINATELY won't be coming in contact with those. I'm not into Zambezi blondes Dave Davenport Outfitters license HC22/2012EC Pro Hunters license PH74/2012EC www.leopardsvalley.co.za dave@leopardsvalley.co.za +27 42 24 61388 HUNT AFRICA WHILE YOU STILL CAN Follow us on FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/#!/leopardsvalley.safaris | |||
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I pray I'm not wrong as nobody wants this thing to go the way the media wants it to go. Here is a paramedics response who works in West Africa. From another forums ( africahunting) Let's all hope he's also right. Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx I'm a paramedic for a company with miners in West Africa. All the health workers who have contracted Ebola breached basic hygiene protocols, including the worker in Dallas. As stated, transmission is by direct contact with fluids or a deceased victim. The virus is extremely fragile outside the human body and won't survive a trip across a room in droplet form. The common flu is a lot more resilient and far more infectious. I see a lot of uneducated and miss informed opinions being spread across forums, primarily from North America where this whole ebola paranoia has taken a firm hold. If you are going to post about Ebola without educating yourself then your just Trolling the forums. Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Dave Davenport Outfitters license HC22/2012EC Pro Hunters license PH74/2012EC www.leopardsvalley.co.za dave@leopardsvalley.co.za +27 42 24 61388 HUNT AFRICA WHILE YOU STILL CAN Follow us on FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/#!/leopardsvalley.safaris | |||
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Regarding ebola - the risk of ebola while travelling to Africa is extremely small, the consequences of contracting ebola are enormous. I have made 17 African safaris and often found myself in some dicey situations. None of them has ever made me reconsider the next trip. Ebola is different. There is too much disinformation and uneducated opinion out there for me to make an intelligent decision on what to do. I have booked safari in RSA for 2015. Unless the current situation has substantially abated by the time of the SCI convention I will stay at home. Although the risk may be negligible (at least in the current conditions)I am not willing to submit myself and my wife to the potential consequences of an ebola infection. | |||
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