quote:

Originally posted by Bwanamich:
Mistakes on aging a lion happen most frequently when you are trying to decide whether or not to shoot a "marginal" (Age wise) lion. Any one trying to determine whether or not a lion at a bait is 5 or 6 whilst hunting has a 50:50 (or 60:40) chance of being wrong! You will only determine this, post mortem when you analyze the teeth, x-ray, etc.

Your margin of error reduces dramatically to almost nil if you practice restraint and only press the trigger when you are 100% sure a lion is over 6. That means you are looking for something like this:



If you spend time hunting lions such as this one below, you are going to be "wrong" 40 - 50% of the time.




Thereafter, you need to try and determine if it is holding a pride or not! If you can keep watching that lion over bait for a good 48 hrs and there are no sign of females, I think you have narrowed the error of margin to <15%. Any lion scientist will sign off on this error margin in a heartbeat!

What it ultimately means is that less lions WILL be shot due to the uncertainty in accurately estimating their age. The challenge is to ensure there are still enough clients willing to pay for an expensive safari to hunt lion knowing they have a 20% - 30% chance of finding one!

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:
Hey bwanamich, your cat that you said is six still has spots on it??????? Your cat that everyone else is going to screw up and shoot according to you doesn't????? If its just that pretty wig and the fat belly you are looking at that can be recreated in most South African pened cats that are only 3 years old.

As for your idea to watch a lion over bait for 48 hours to decide whether you should kill it????? You expect a cat to sit on a bait for 48 hours????? You expect a client to let you watch a cat for 48 hours before you let him shoot it?????? My first lion hunt was for a cat that ended up being 9 years old when he was finaly killed. We never layed eyes on him in 18 days! The next year I hunted him again and saw him on three different occasions for a grand total of less than 15 seconds! Are you hunting wild lions that can be watched for 48 hours???? The last lion I killed I watched for a minute. The total amount of time he spent at a bait over a period of 3 days was less than 4 hours! Guess what, not one single female came to that bait ever. The nearest female was 4 clicks to the north. Guess what else. He was probably the pride male! Do any of you even know the average age of mortality for a male lion in the wild where there is no hunting? Would someone like to answer that question and then tell us why it is imperitive to kill lions that are at least six?????? Someone please. By the way I know the answer.

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:
Secondly, let me say that almost every medical decision made today is based on small population trends from small population studies and restrospective reports. I am not saying that they are the end-all-beat-all last word as sometimes they get it wrong. But, they are the best thing we have to go on in most instances and more often than not...they work for the general population.

This ain't medicine.

Here sir , you are 100% just plain ole WRONG. It is exactly like medicine. We are dealing with biological creatures. We are using statistically analysed population criteria to make decisions that in the end make the decision of life or death. It is especially like herd health in veterinary medicine where we look for specific criterea on how to manage a herd.

At best these are assumptions for lions studied in one region and now you beleive it is perfectly OK to transfer these conclusions onto all lion populations.

Agreed! But an exception rather than the rule.

You are assuming this to be the fact so you can keep the arguement going.

No sir...I was actually giving you the benefit of the doubt in the first place on your assumption...to allow you to have a voice.


Whether he goes sterile or not matters very little. He will still partake in infanticide and behave just like a regular lion. He doesn't read the medical journals.

This would only be a factor in an instance where an 8 or > male over takes a pride with small cubs. I assure you sir that this is the least of problems right now and may or may not happen on very rare occasions.

OKYDOKY. Then lets see their data and see how many individuals deviated from their ideal nose color. If they say none did then you know as well as I that this was crappy science and they are cooking the books. Now lets see how many were studied in hunting concessions, individuals that live in neither park areas or hunting concessions, or what these cat's diets were, or even better the percent of day spent in daylight to percent of day spent under darkness.

Their work is published. But again...I am not arguing that nose-color is the end-all-beat-all...just another clue.

I guess you didn't learn anything from my aging deer example.

Actually...I saw very little correlation to the argument at hand.


Nobody can be sure! Sure we can maked educated guesses but there is no sure bet. That's why its hunting! That's part of the appeal of cat hunting. Cat hunting for most is a story hard work and breaf moments of excitement, and not being sure! If you want to make hunters miserable you will succeed with this outlook.

So...part of the attraction to hunting lions with you is HOPING you killed a mature cat and NOT a sub-adult?

For most this is an impossible task. Lions roam they many of them will spend time in other concessions besides your own. Plus you have teritorial overlap, and a mountian of other curcumstances called life that will change the social dynamics of these cats in a matter of a few hours. But mean while the super PH who has to run a camp, keep dozens of other hunters happy who aren't even after a lion, all while remaining omniscient of what every single male lion is doing that roams through his concession.

As my Dad always says: "Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way."

quote:

STU - Overall the Bwana is spot on! Lions often will stay on bait for 2-4 days at a time, even longer, if the meat wagon keeps coming.

I have only seen a lion stay on bait that long one time. I just had a client do an 18 day hunt for lion in which 5 different males were located. The only two that stayed on a bait for 48 hours straight were two immature males.

You don't have to watch em for 48 hrs, a trail cam will do the job nicely. Likely but NOT always, if the lion has a pride, the pride will eventually show up.
I don't think yall understand what the actual dynmanics of a male lions territory can be. Very often males control many small prides scattered over long distances. These females do not know or hunt with these other females. They are completely different family units. The males spend days away from female groups to tend other female groups and patrol massive territories. This idea that a male stays right around a group of females constantly and they all feed together is the exception and not the rule.
Again, its just a guideline, its not a fact. I too agree that the 2nd lion pictured is a shooter in a heartbeat! But that doesn't make Bwana's advice to wait and see about a pride/cubs irrelevant. But, it would be awfully hard for alot of folks to do, and that I understand. At least no one can claim the shooting of this lion, is a young/immature male that should have been avoided all-together.

Exceptions to every rule are possible, just as the old lion pictured appears to have spots. Obviously it either appears that way, or there's some goofy reason why he still has em, but he's clearly not a young lion that would normally still have spots.

This was my point exactly but we are setting all these stringent guidelines that are just going to cause massive conflict within ranks of hunters. Even though I agree the spotted cat would get a bullet, plenty would disagree and have a leg to stand on because they found out he had spots. By the way Bwanna didn't say he was going to wait around for 48 hours and see what kind of cats fed with this one when in reality that cat could be a pride male also.

I'm not sure anyone knows the average mortality age of a wild lion,
Average age of mortality of wild lions not in a hunting area is 4. So why are these cats on average dying at an age below six but the populations stay stable? But if we kill one below six the entire continent of Africa is in danger of melting down.

I'm sure its all over the board for numerous reasons.

Lastly, Dr. Easter has previously explained why the ideal age to harvest a lion is 6 yrs or older. Its not just a guess, it has vaildity, and it should be adhered to as closely as possible.

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:
Secondly, let me say that almost every medical decision made today is based on small population trends from small population studies and restrospective reports. I am not saying that they are the end-all-beat-all last word as sometimes they get it wrong. But, they are the best thing we have to go on in most instances and more often than not...they work for the general population.

This ain't medicine.

Here sir , you are 100% just plain ole WRONG. It is exactly like medicine. We are dealing with biological creatures. We are using statistically analysed population criteria to make decisions that in the end make the decision of life or death. It is especially like herd health in veterinary medicine where we look for specific criterea on how to manage a herd.You are comparing management of animals which you control every aspect of their lives to a group of wild animals that you have almost no control over except whether you shoot one of them or not. It ain't even the same ballpark. Its like thinking picking up hookers makes you a ladies man.

At best these are assumptions for lions studied in one region and now you beleive it is perfectly OK to transfer these conclusions onto all lion populations.

Agreed! But an exception rather than the rule.

You are assuming this to be the fact so you can keep the arguement going.

No sir...I was actually giving you the benefit of the doubt in the first place on your assumption...to allow you to have a voice.
You have yet to come off your omniscient high horse to give anyone the benefit of a doubt.


Whether he goes sterile or not matters very little. He will still partake in infanticide and behave just like a regular lion. He doesn't read the medical journals.

This would only be a factor in an instance where an 8 or > male over takes a pride with small cubs. I assure you sir that this is the least of problems right now and may or may not happen on very rare occasions.
Just another exception that shows you you have no rules.

OKYDOKY. Then lets see their data and see how many individuals deviated from their ideal nose color. If they say none did then you know as well as I that this was crappy science and they are cooking the books. Now lets see how many were studied in hunting concessions, individuals that live in neither park areas or hunting concessions, or what these cat's diets were, or even better the percent of day spent in daylight to percent of day spent under darkness.

Their work is published. But again...I am not arguing that nose-color is the end-all-beat-all...just another clue.

I guess you didn't learn anything from my aging deer example.

Actually...I saw very little correlation to the argument at hand.

The correlation was that biologists with years of education and experience and looking at litteraly hundreds of times more specimans and individuals than a lion biologist, who should have a narrower mean deviation in their statistics, didn't. Because they were not using proper trend data to make decisions. Instead they were just making stupid assumptions that they could use another person's data and proclaim it was a "rule". This is exactly what is happpening with lions. How many lion skulls have you inspected. How many lion carcasses have you taken data off of? How many male lions have you even seen in the wild? But you got you study that was done mainly in the Serengeti park and now all lion biology and sociology will be determined with your big brush.


Nobody can be sure! Sure we can maked educated guesses but there is no sure bet. That's why its hunting! That's part of the appeal of cat hunting. Cat hunting for most is a story hard work and breaf moments of excitement, and not being sure! If you want to make hunters miserable you will succeed with this outlook.

So...part of the attraction to hunting lions with you is HOPING you killed a mature cat and NOT a sub-adult?

Yes. I am not ashamed to say I hope I killed the cat I wanted.

For most this is an impossible task. Lions roam they many of them will spend time in other concessions besides your own. Plus you have teritorial overlap, and a mountian of other curcumstances called life that will change the social dynamics of these cats in a matter of a few hours. But mean while the super PH who has to run a camp, keep dozens of other hunters happy who aren't even after a lion, all while remaining omniscient of what every single male lion is doing that roams through his concession.

As my Dad always says: "Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way."

quote:

My dad always said stick with what you know.

quote:

Here sir , you are 100% just plain ole WRONG. It is exactly like medicine. We are dealing with biological creatures. We are using statistically analysed population criteria to make decisions that in the end make the decision of life or death. It is especially like herd health in veterinary medicine where we look for specific criterea on how to manage a herd.

You are comparing management of animals which you control every aspect of their lives to a group of wild animals that you have almost no control over except whether you shoot one of them or not. It ain't even the same ballpark. Its like thinking picking up hookers makes you a ladies man.

quote:

This is exactly what is happpening with lions. How many lion skulls have you inspected. How many lion carcasses have you taken data off of? How many male lions have you even seen in the wild? But you got you study that was done mainly in the Serengeti park and now all lion biology and sociology will be determined with your big brush.

quote:

Maybe...you should follow his advice.

quote:

Sir, the answer to all of you questions is some.

Some! Is that quality data?

The second part is that I am not painting anything with any brush what-so-ever. I am a medical professional, a publisher of peer-reviewed research, and a hunter. I am a PART of a group that is working towards staving off the end of lion hunting. I am NOT nor have I ever proclaimed to be an expert on lions or lion hunting. But...I am an expert on analysing scientific data and studies.

Then you know most of these lion "studies" are crap. Most are conducted with very small study pools so small that no statistician would support the findings. And you would also know that once you have that information it is only good for specific individuals that share the same variables as individuals within the study. At best that information can only be used as comparative information or a basis to start a study of seperate individuals with different variables. You think if it works for a hand picked lion in one place it is and accepted "rule" for all lions. That has nothing to do with accurate statistics nor is it good science.

And as I said before...Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:

quote:

Sir, the answer to all of you questions is some.

Some! Is that quality data?

The second part is that I am not painting anything with any brush what-so-ever. I am a medical professional, a publisher of peer-reviewed research, and a hunter. I am a PART of a group that is working towards staving off the end of lion hunting. I am NOT nor have I ever proclaimed to be an expert on lions or lion hunting. But...I am an expert on analysing scientific data and studies.

Then you know most of these lion "studies" are crap. Most are conducted with very small study pools so small that no statistician would support the findings. And you would also know that once you have that information it is only good for specific individuals that share the same variables as individuals within the study. At best that information can only be used as comparative information or a basis to start a study of seperate individuals with different variables. You think if it works for a hand picked lion in one place it is and accepted "rule" for all lions. That has nothing to do with accurate statistics nor is it good science.

And as I said before...Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.

Maybe its time for you to exercise option three.

quote:

Then you know most of these lion "studies" are crap. Most are conducted with very small study pools so small that no statistician would support the findings. And you would also know that once you have that information it is only good for specific individuals that share the same variables as individuals within the study. At best that information can only be used as comparative information or a basis to start a study of seperate individuals with different variables. You think if it works for a hand picked lion in one place it is and accepted "rule" for all lions. That has nothing to do with accurate statistics nor is it good science.

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Why don't you tell us who you are why we should even listen to anything you have to say? It is easy to sit behind an alias and snipe!

Disclosure is the key to believability.

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As best I can tell I am the only one between the two of us that has any experience manging wild animal herds and the only one bewtween the two of us who has a fiscal stake in the future of lion hunting.