quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
Mike,

I think you are spot on. The folks that are willing to make a plan will still go. To me making a plan might include a less ambitious safari or a safari for non-trophy anaimls. Maybe a hunter just can't go as often but giving up safari as long as you have your health and the desire just doesn't seem right.

Mark

True.

But there are a lot less individuals who fall into this category than those who wish to hunt and cannot afford these latest prices.

With what is currently being done in Zimbabwe, I can see a marked decline in the number of hunters going to hunt there.

Then where is all the quota going? Not like we are seeing a bunch of outfitters with unsold quota. I think we are like a bunch of old women complaining about the price of milk at the grocery store, we complain and cuss . . . and buy another gallon. At some point might the economics collapse, maybe . . . but I do not not see that happening any time soon.

I have a lot of sympathy for the outfitter but 20 k for a buffalo hunt is a lot of money. I enjoyed each of my buffaloes but for this money there is so much else one can hunt and have a good time.

quote:

Then where is all the quota going?

Quota for buffalo in particular has been cut in Zim the last two years. There is no quota at all in Botswana, nor Zambia. So the outfitters can sell what's left at higher prices, for the most part.

The fly in the ointment is South Africa. Those guys are now cranking out buffalo like cattle. So I expect the high price of buffalo hunting will be a temporary thing. Also Angola is supposed to come back, and Moz is making a strong comeback.

Mark said, "Maybe a hunter just can't go as often but . . . . ."

Unfortunately, that's correct. For a lot of guys, and especially the one's who are considered "middle class", their first buffalo hunt will probably be their last, or they won't do it at all. On this forum we all like to tell the newbies, "You may think your first hunt will be your once-in-a-lifetime hunt, but once the Africa bug bites you, it's addictive, and you'll be back again and again".

Well, maybe they will, but just not for DG, or at least not for buffalo in Zim. On the bright side, plainsgame hunting in SA is still quite affordable, and in my opinion it's a blast, so at least we'll still have that.

You know, it's possible that things could change in the future. Once the Zim government sees that there are far fewer hunters coming, they may change their minds about these outragious fees. Who knows? Unfortunately, the Zim government may not see the supply/price/demand correlation, and will not figure out that far fewer hunters equals fewer dollars for them collected in fees, and also fewer hunters in thier country means fewer tourist dollars spent by hunters.

Not to go off track, but I think this relates. Here in Salt Lake, you can get a month-to-month (no contract) membership at Gold's Gym for $10/month at some locations. At the more deluxe locations, it's $180 for a one-year membership, which equals $15/month, and one of their trainers told me today that he could even deal on that price to make it lower. That's WAY cheaper than it was a few years ago. Why? Supply, downward price pressure, and demand. And some things fall out of favor with the general public, and the prices drop. So not everything continues to go up in price. But I really feel for the outfitters in Zim. I don't see how $18K for a buffalo hunt can possibly last. At some point, economics will come into play - it always does.

Here's another rip-off. I was in Victoria Falls in 2011 and again in 2013. In 2011, the price to get into the park in Vic Falls to see the falls was $12/person. In 2013 it had skyrocketed to $32/person. Seems like pure greed to me.

Something nobody has mentioned ... the dollar is withering away ... look at the price of gold, oil, livestock feed, cars, and so on. So there is more than one thing going on here.

(BTW when you buy a buffalo hunt you are buying quite a few barrels of oil ... to get over there, to get to the concession, and then to get around ... )

the price of gold is down over 25%. other items you mentioned are climbing about 5%/year. DG hunts are climbing much faster( through no fault of the outfitters). it is simply stupid African govt greed. good luck down the road. sooner or later, you can price yourself out of business.

Something else happened as well, in the past most clients were from the states and the rest we made up mostly out of Europe , these days there are much more hunters coming out of the east block countries and believe it or not China, so I am sure the demand will stay up there and even increase. The Russians are spending A lot of money hunting at the moment.

quote:

Something else happened as well, in the past most clients were from the states and the rest we made up mostly out of Europe , these days there are much more hunters coming out of the east block countries and believe it or not China, so I am sure the demand will stay up there and even increase. The Russians are spending A lot of money hunting at the moment.

Maybe we'll just be replaced?

bwana cecil, sorry I made A typo error when I SAID we, I WAS TRYING TO say WERE made up, my clients are all from the states but I know lots of outfitters with Russian and Chinese clients.

Bwana Cecil an excellent point 'the Russians are coming' and don't forget the Aussies. Don't be surprised if your planned hunt gets re arranged for someone in a new 'priority group' I'm told they can be pretty demanding and as they say 'a problem'. Perhaps we're no longer the apex client.

Well over the last decade it seems to me the definition of 'middle class' seems to have been shifted upwards into income brackets that in years past we considered well off. The people I know in middle class cannot afford a buffalo hunt at the current rates or any other dangerous game hunt and a plains game hunt is going to take 4 or 5 years of saving if they want to stay married and pay the other bills.

I know I cannot afford a buffalo hunt now. Surviving from year to year just keeps going up and up. The other side of the equation is that, although my wife is a hunter and appreciates my desire to go for a leopard or an ele one day, she is certainly entitled to 50% of the disposable income for her wants in the holiday department.

I know I have been in the outfitting industry now for 30+ years and 'middle class, the people who use to book the middle of the road moose, elk, deer and bear hunts, have all but disappeared. They have been replaced by 'middle class' that gross about three times as much as they ever did.

I watched these people go from an annual guided hunt to once every couple years, then once every five years………….. to not going at all. At this time, $10 to $12K is a lot of coin for an average working stiff to scrape together to use for a hunt.

I know a lot of guys who made it to Africa once and have never been back. Not for a lack of desire, but because they are watching the escalating prices everywhere and know it ain't going to happen.

It's actually quite easy to imagine people being priced out of this market. For me....I am pretty much out of the game as a buffalo is no longer worth the asking price in my mind. I can go on some really great free roaming Canadian Bison hunts, some buff (or maybe even Banteng) hunts in Oz, or some really interesting Asian two-Ibex hunts for a lot less money. Why not Buff AND Roan in Burkina Faso or Benin for less than a single Buff in Zim? Why not a lion in BF for less than a Buff in Zim? Some guys just have to hunt buff in the south and that is fine, but I think the number is declining due to increased prices and many will simply substitute to other species outside of Africa or even within Africa. As just one example, in my mind, the recent price changes have made Elephants (at least as I see them) much more attractive as a hunt option. Not comparing apples to oranges, if I can reasonably expect an end of season (or even mid-season) exportable elephant hunt to come up for just a bit more (or even the same price) relative to a mid or top range buff hunt all in, why would I go for the latter? In that vein I also think that, longer term, you will see a lot more competition for "end of season" deals and they will get snapped up much quicker than before. Those of us on a budget should do a lot of research in advance and be ready to push "Buy it now" when an opportunity comes up.

quote:

the price of gold is down over 25%. other items you mentioned are climbing about 5%/year

Depends on the period you are looking at. Back up a bit and look at the big picture. An ounce of gold was $29 it's now $1250 or so; a barrel of oil was $8 it's now $100; a good bolt rifle was $125 it's now $750; a Mercedes Benz was $4000 now $40000 plus. A flight to SA was $750 its now $2000. And the pols try to tell us there is no inflation?

And relative to other many other currencies, the dollar is lagging. The Euro was 80c, it's now $1.40; the beaver buck was 75c, it's now $1 or so.

Worst of all, the dollar is buoyed by the fact that it's still the safe haven "reserve" currency. If/when that changes, hold on to your hats. Most of us have seen what happens when you crank up the printing presses and go down the path of redistribution. You may be able to experience Zimbabwe without ever getting on an airplane.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

quote:

the price of gold is down over 25%. other items you mentioned are climbing about 5%/year

Depends on the period you are looking at. Back up a bit and look at the big picture. An ounce of gold was $29 it's now $1250 or so

I would love to know the price of a classic safari expressed in British Pounds before the move away from gold sovereigns. I wonder if the price of safaris has outstripped gold or if the same amount of gold would buy more safari time. A few years ago, I was looking at prices of old double rifles expressed in original terms (sovereigns) and interestingly enough, the price from Army&Navy and other "non-glamour" makers of the day were not all that different than the price of a Verney Carron today when expressed in gold terms. Be interesting to know the same thing about Safaris or if the Safari has become more expensive/cheaper.

I think you will find that for a lot of things, the price has not changed in terms of ounces of gold over the long haul. A good example is a good quality business suit. $29 back then, $1250 today. There may be short term "deviations" in periods of supply shortage or oversupply. When you buy a safari, you are buying a basket of goods made up of fuel, vehicle, food, labor, and land.

I have a theory though that DG Safaris have now "broken out" of this "golden rule" due to the shrinking quota (closures and seizures) and the growing demand (russians etc.)

This logic then leads one to think perhaps it's a good time to sell the dollar and buy a concession Too bad one can't buy buffalo futures, that would be the easiest way to play this.

quote:

Originally posted by tendrams:
I would love to know the price of a classic safari expressed in British Pounds before the move away from gold sovereigns. I wonder if the price of safaris has outstripped gold or if the same amount of gold would buy more safari time. A few years ago, I was looking at prices of old double rifles expressed in original terms (sovereigns) and interestingly enough, the price from Army&Navy and other "non-glamour" makers of the day were not all that different than the price of a Verney Carron today when expressed in gold terms. Be interesting to know the same thing about Safaris or if the Safari has become more expensive/cheaper.

Can't go back that far but FWIW, I've got a few letters from one on the Van Ingen brothers (of taxidermy fame) and in one, he tells me about a (self guided) Tanganyika safari he went on just after WWII.

In it, he says:

"I am glad I did my shoot in Africa in Tanganyika some 50 odd years ago and probably the best time to be there, not long after I got back from a prisoner of war with the Japs in Thailand - The shooting licence at the time was £100/- for:

2 elephants
10 Buffaloes
20 Zebra
2 Greater Kudu
2 Sable
2 Roans - 4 Lions - Wart Hog, Leopards etc, no limit

I did not employ a White Hunter, but had a letter of introduction to the British Commissioner at Moshi, who kindly introduced me to a Game Warden named Cooper, he very kindly suggested which areas had game".

He goes on to tell me his two elephants were 96 & 85 and the other was 78 & 65.

ADDED

£100 in 1947 is equivalent to about £8570 or $14000 now........ However, in 1947 there was about $3 to £1 so working it way, the cost would be about $25k

quote:

Too bad one can't buy buffalo futures, that would be the easiest way to play this.

Russ:

I thought this is the order of the day in RSA.

Record auction price of a Cape Buffalo ring a bell?

posted 19 September 2013 16:33
http://www.iol.co.za/news/sout...1580001#.Ujr8-H-peJY

quote:

bwana cecil, sorry I made A typo error when I SAID we, I WAS TRYING TO say WERE made up, my clients are all from the states but I know lots of outfitters with Russian and Chinese clients.

Philip
I caught the typo. (did not mean to sound offended)
I guess I just don't have the world view.
The thinking that others would simply fill the void caught me a little off guard.

I've given up on my DG safari and hoping that my Son can do it before I can't enjoy his experience by long distance. I started planning in 2006 for a hunt two years out, I believe the average was about $7500usd for two buff & $5k for business class airfare.. SA was the most expensive, Mad Bob's Bushland was the least.

I believe prices started climbing about 2009 to the point that it was cheaper to do a cow phunt control hunt with 2-5 phunt's allowed. So I switched focus to phunt's, had a forced early retirement, and then the joint's started to wear away over night (can't run any more). I had the money, barely, but at this point it didn't seem prudent to spend it on a hunt when the US seemed to be circling the drain.

I'm not too sad that I'll never get to enjoy what I've been collecting and reading since my 20's. As I run a trap line daily for 6 months a year, and hunt and/or fish in two states 12 months a years. I'm extremely happy to be able to do as much as I do.

But I'm worried that the World's oldest profession (prostitutes didn't give it away, hunters created the first market) is going to be regulated away from those of us who eat squirrel and other game 12 months a year, to those of means (read as access to land, the means to pay for stocking, other fees and ammo. Maybe political connections as well) like Europe or worse yet, no hunting at all.

Side note: a group of 12 para-medics and teachers leased 78 acres of swamp to deer hunt for 3 months and paid $12k ! The previous year the same lease was $500usd, the same as it had been for about 8-10 years. What's this going to do to lease prices, even though the market will adjust quickly? That 6 person family lease of 30 acres is going to jump and be grabbed by a gun club that's been dying to get that property for a 3 hour deer drive once a year. Result a 40 year family tradition will be very expensive or lost. Every club with means is going to drive around this Spring with a bag of cash and contracts. We'll see what happens, I'm very, very fortunate to have a deer spot plus another 6000 acres+/- a hundred in 7 towns for anything but deer. This is due to my damage control trapping and clubs with exclusive deer leases that allow me access to everything from squirrels to ducks & turkeys. Once they pay over the going rate for all hunting rights, I'll only be trapping it to help the farmers if needed. It happened to me 8 years ago, lost 250 acres+/- of corn. The farmer always let about 20-60% of the corn go to ground and didn't care about predation.

I've gone on way to long about something that's not gonna change for the better. Enjoy what you can while you can. Like I told my Son, once your settled and saving, go to Africa. You can always live with us after if it doesn't work out.

Thanks for listening, Minkman

quote:

Originally posted by 4-5-0:
Bwana Cecil an excellent point 'the Russians are coming' and don't forget the Aussies. Don't be surprised if your planned hunt gets re arranged for someone in a new 'priority group' I'm told they can be pretty demanding and as they say 'a problem'. Perhaps we're (Americans) no longer the apex client.

For now at least...I am afraid you are correct! Our own Mad Bob...I mean Barry has seen to that. In the early and mid 2000's a Safari was relatively easy to afford.

Today...I see more patients to make the same money but there are fewer patients to see and I pay 10% more in taxes.

The recession and our government have reduced expendable income while safaris keep getting more expensive.

Zim has gotten expensive in last 3-4 years. Between trophy fees and daily rates - A buff hunt is 35-40 percent higher since 2010. Only college tuition inflation keeps up with it.

Add on that issues with conservancies and it does not look to me at a great value proposition.

Zim has the best ph and safari operators and the guys make a plan as needed and if you go with quality outfits you will have a great hunt. But to me it seems that the base zim dg hunt was buff and plains game and that has gotten very expensive for its core client - american upper middleclass hunter.

The core client base/buff hunters also pay most of the fixed costs of running a safari operation. It would be stupid for zim to tax this client to hell and price him out ofnthe market. But as botswana has shown the govts are not focused on efficient taxation or resource utilization.

I seriously doubt that russians (who have a terrible reputation for trying to renegotiate pricing/trophy fees) or chinese or indians or anyone else is going to replace americans (and a lot of texans) as the core of safari clients

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
Add on that issues with conservancies and it does not look to me at a great value proposition.

Value is a relative term. For safaris, if Zim is not a great value, what is, particularly if you are interested in a dangerous game hunt? Botswana? Tanzania? Maybe Mozambique if rebel activity does not escalate again. Zambia, where hunting is on again/off again. Hard for me to see a better value proposition than Zim even with the regretful price increases.

don't forget Namibia- particularly the Caprivi

Go while you can. Prices do not go down, other than gasoline and houses, but never for long. If you cannot go, then go somewhere else. Try CAR, try Zambia, try Uganda.

I see the price increases for Stone sheep even worse in terms of escalation.

quote:

Originally posted by Skyline:
Well over the last decade it seems to me the definition of 'middle class' seems to have been shifted upwards into income brackets that in years past we considered well off. The people I know in middle class cannot afford a buffalo hunt at the current rates or any other dangerous game hunt and a plains game hunt is going to take 4 or 5 years of saving if they want to stay married and pay the other bills.

I know I cannot afford a buffalo hunt now. Surviving from year to year just keeps going up and up. The other side of the equation is that, although my wife is a hunter and appreciates my desire to go for a leopard or an ele one day, she is certainly entitled to 50% of the disposable income for her wants in the holiday department.

I know I have been in the outfitting industry now for 30+ years and 'middle class, the people who use to book the middle of the road moose, elk, deer and bear hunts, have all but disappeared. They have been replaced by 'middle class' that gross about three times as much as they ever did.

I watched these people go from an annual guided hunt to once every couple years, then once every five years………….. to not going at all. At this time, $10 to $12K is a lot of coin for an average working stiff to scrape together to use for a hunt.

I know a lot of guys who made it to Africa once and have never been back. Not for a lack of desire, but because they are watching the escalating prices everywhere and know it ain't going to happen.

Well said

Beretta682E, I agree I don't think the US clients will be replaced, however what I was trying to say is there is suddenly more hunters from across the world hunting then what there was say 10 years ago.

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
Add on that issues with conservancies and it does not look to me at a great value proposition.

Value is a relative term. For safaris, if Zim is not a great value, what is, particularly if you are interested in a dangerous game hunt? Botswana? Tanzania? Maybe Mozambique if rebel activity does not escalate again. Zambia, where hunting is on again/off again. Hard for me to see a better value proposition than Zim even with the regretful price increases.

Agree 100 percent everything is relative.

But if the all in cost of a buff trophy approaches $30k with taxidermy, travel included. It is going to price out a lot of individuals.

My fear is as other countries in which you have mentioned there are significant issues with hunting forces more dangerous game hunters to zim even with higher fees. The govt which does not time discount rationally will only react by jacking up direct taxes and fees and indirect taxes.

Add on top of that their policies tied to private conservancies - these guys (zim govt) are quite capable of bring their significant economic destruction experience into the hunting sector.

For me relative value in african hunting is in botswana for plains game, burkina faso for dg - going to check it out in 2 months, nambia

I love the save conservancy so even with the price hikes i am inclined to hunt there - just cut of on taxidermy ect.

Sure glad I hunted years ago!! Yes, I can afford it....but I would rather my excesses are spent on double rifles and big boats that I can later resell at some recovery to my estate....and I still have my "privilege and my principle"!!...and I can escape from the Obama meltdown....Zimbabwe style....when it hits the fan on my boat...with my guns!!

The Industry will find new markets. As alluded to above, American's will be replaced with Russians, other Europeans, and Chinese.

Safari hunting is a luxury market, much like fine wine. The prices of Classified Growth Bordeaux in the past 20 years has defied reality. A bottle of Latour or Chateau Margaux then could be had at around $100 bucks. That was pricy but if you were into wine, you could splurge now and then. Same wines now go form $900 to $2000+ depending on the quality of the most recent vintages. Crazy? Sure, but as Americans balk at purchasing, the slack has been more than taken up by Asia.

Same will happen to Safari. The saddest thing about it is that the new markets will have zero interest in sustainability.

It's going to be interesting to see how safari hunting changes in Africa as Zim prices rise toward parity with other countries. Zim has nothing unique to hunt and besides Victoria Falls, it has no big draw for those very few of us who value hunting in unique geography. It's successful business model has been based on a " Walmart" plan. Zim has always been cheap for a non-Texas style (fence free) hunt. Once they loose that advantage what's going to happen? I'm guessing fewer hunts sold obviously, but maybe slightly more hunts in other countries. Once a buffalo hunt in Zim approaches Tanzania or Zambia prices, some will not hunt and the rest may well hunt elsewhere. Mozambique will prosper. Like everywhere else, things change, and hardly ever for the better.

I guess the upcoming shows will tell if there is a change of minds.

Navaluk, Prices in Mozambique is also on the high side, I AM working on A hunt for one of my clients there at this moment and when it is all said and done I buff hunt will also be over $16 000, And I have prices from 3 good operators, there leopard hunts run over $30 000. Unfortunately it is becoming very expensive to hunt Africa especially the free roaming areas.

Looking at it another way, the true wilderness hunting areas are getting smaller and fewer every year and if prices were lower, you'd have more hunters & then they'd be bumping into each other and (perhaps understandably) complaining about that.

More hunters also equals more hunting which in turn equals more animals taken or higher trophy fees to ensure we don't end up with fewer head of game.

Pause for thought huh!

It seems like a lot of people on this thread are forgetting that Botswana just closed and Zambia's future could still be considered uncertain. That's a lot of safaris that Zim can take the slack up for, so even with the higher prices, there's more demand for good safaris than there is supply right now. Zimbabwe will book it's hunts this year at the shows for the simple fact that if people want to go hunting it's still a cheaper option than Tanzania (though not quite the same as Tanzania..) with a more stable hunting industry than Mozambique. Like others have said, hopefully other countries will pick up the slack and there will still be good areas for buffalo at affordable rates.

My question is, what happens when Mozambique starts seeing a huge influx of hunters because it's the new cheaper place for buffalo?? I'd assume rates will rise, quickly.

IMO - Zimbabwe is just taking advantage of less competition in the safari market. Mozambique will likely follow their lead in the next few years if Botswana and Zambia** stay closed.


Greg



**With Zambia staying mostly closed as it is now, with the exception of a few GMA's and private areas and no cat or elephant hunting allowed anywhere.

HA...when wines go over $50 bucks I stop buying...even if a buddy owns the winery and he is pushing you....same with safaris and certainly prices on double rifles too!! There is a limit of reason and principle....yes, the Top 1% the sky's the limit and they spend regardless!...The Gulfstream and BBJ crowd. Hope safari prices don't go there!!

Cheers,

I saw this coming and already started looking for alternative adventures. That is one of the reasons I am going to Burkina Faso in February.
I still intend to hunt Zim if I can and I do have a father/son Cape Buffalo hunt with Nixon in July, but I am seriously looking at some interesting PG hunts in places I haven't been as a cheaper way to be in Africa. I used to hunt sheep and elk and they got pricey. Then I hunted whitetails everywhere and they got pricey. Then I went to Africa because it made more sense and in some cases still does. So, I will move around to find something interesting and worth the money.

Hey guys, you can always come & hunt Portugal instead!

i am in for portugal - if the hunting does not work at least there is a lot of port to drink

Very good hunting, shooting & fishing & equally good wine & port here.

Interesting thread...

My passion is long range shooting (not long range hunting). I just got a new rifle today - a Stiller action, Lilja bbl, Jewell trigger, Vais brake, and McMillan stock - I think I have a little less than 3 grand in the rifle. Scope is a Nightforce, so toss in another 2K. That means I have 5K or so in the rifle, about the same as the going rate of a buff TF in Zim according to this thread, or a typical leopard TF. The pleasure I get from using guns like this one, especially when I hit a clay pigeon at 800 yards, is pretty high.

I have never spent money on a hunt I regretted, but these days I certainly am thinking what else I can get for my money. Part of the pleasure of hunting is reliving the hunts by just sitting in my TR, looking at pictures, even reading others stories here and in print and knowing I can go back when I want to. But the more I hunt, the less each hunt means in terms of these kinds of memories. There is certainly a dilutive effect, not unlike sex.

I have said this before, but the biggest reason I started my own business was I knew working for someone would not allow me to spend money on hunting without significant sacrifice. I figured if I never tried, I would never hunt lions, elephants, etc. If I tried and failed, I would never hunt lions, eles, etc. So to me the answer was obvious. Ironically, I find being in business for myself has turned work into a giant game of Monopoly, and that by itself is quite a bit of fun. So in the end, I owe a great deal to the fact hunting isn't cheap.