Yeah yeah, I know "Trump supporter " now that the emotive response has been posted

Real gdp up 3%

We not going to talk about it?

When you say real gdp.
This is not projected BS that is usually given correct?

The MSM is saying real gdp.

So is it because of him or in spite of him?

If you’re into making “real” money…the present economy is the best I have ever had the privilege of doing business in.

https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

Unfortunately, most of our economic information that comes from the government has been shown to be biased towards “the economy is doing great” and then quietly modified months later.

If the economy is expanding 3% in the last month and it is factual, that is great… but I will hold off on the claim until they get a chance to verify it.

I do note that the folks who were using the stock market as a bell weather for the economy and how Trump was such an idiot have moved on to other indicators.

I do think the economy has more to do with peoples feelings of personal economic security than any policy standpoint.

quote:

Originally posted by jeffeosso:

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

So how are these MSM folks rationalizing it? Not having a business all I really care about is the success of the few stocks that I own. For my own selfish reasons I hope rates stay as is so my money market funds keep generating RMD money. My son just got a show model residence at 5% so what's not to like?

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:
If you’re into making “real” money…the present economy is the best I have ever had the privilege of doing business in.

Time will tell, as always.

Reviewed my K1s for 24 and quarterly reports for 2025. Plot twist, 25 is back on track from 19 and 20...

quote:

Originally posted by jeffeosso:

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

I'm no expert as I have repeatedly indicated. My guess is that they are trying to tamp down future expectations in light of the tariffs. Again, a completely uninformed opinion.

I'm no economic expert but at some point, trump's bullying, lying about the economy and the rest of the world's lack of confidence in a country that would elect a moron like trump to be POTUS will come home to roost.

I hope I'm wrong.

The tariffs have had no real effect yet because in trump world, they are all over the place, off again, on again. I don't think anybody knows yet what happens. What we do know is that our trading partners are going away.

The full effect of tariffs won’t be felt for at least 4-6 months, probably more. When the chickens come home to roost, we’ll see who is bragging and who is deadly quiet. Shit should be hitting the fan just in time for next year’s mid terms.

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
The tariffs have had no real effect yet because in trump world, they are all over the place, off again, on again. I don't think anybody knows yet what happens. What we do know is that our trading partners are going away.

Sometimes the best you can do is keep the plane right-side-up and let the turbulence have its way.
Minor course corrections might be in order to correct for tariffs, but wind drift is random for now.

That, and business keeps expecting exemptions and are living on current inventory.

History rhymes. The melody is set.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/ne...xclusions-recession/

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/...ariff-exemption.html

Again, let’s ignore the 2025 Q1 was a decrease.

Glad for any rebound.

Oh, and interest rates stayed the same because of tariff policy.

What is your (collective) take on this from the BBC?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5rm7v5166o

Increased short term revenue for the govt due to tariffs but that they will have a longer therm negative impact on the economy.

My take is the U.S. market will shrink once tariffs get rolling. Prices will go up, less demand. Materials, goods will move to other markets meaning less supplY.

Net result being not good.

Powell term is up in May. In May, he goes away. President Trump replaces him w a strong advocate. The result will be interest rates lowered.

Thus, more money in the system, available. Therefore, inflation.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:
My take is the U.S. market will shrink once tariffs get rolling. Prices will go up, less demand. Materials, goods will move to other markets meaning less supplY.

Net result being not good.

Powell term is up in May. In May, he goes away. President Trump replaces him w a strong advocate. The result will be interest rates lowered.

Thus, more money in the system, available. Therefore, inflation.

yep .. a guess -- entirely free of facts

1: GDP last year was roughly 30T -
2: about 10% of that, 3t, is imports
3: a 15% increase on 10% is 1.5% - ANNUALLY-
4: LESS THAN HALF the LOWEST inflation-causing-price-increases since 2021
5: 1.5% increase in prices? unlike eggs, we'll assume that EVERY has "perfect knowledge and perfect access" with zero deltas in shipping, and everyone KNOWS where the cheapest vendor .. okay, that's just stupid, but it's what neophytes might use
6: in reality, there's more price difference between walmart.com, amazon, and ebay, for the same products
7: copper and alum tarrifs have been dropped
net-effect? in technical absolutes, there could be a MEASURABLE, but insignificant increase in SOME prices

oh, and let's not forget a RECORD income from tariffs in june AND a 3% increase in GDP

there should be a tariff on creating doom and gloom

Only a couple of historical precedents and basic economics.

From Tariffs are stupid to the biggest tariff advocate.

Do you think Chairmen Powell will last past May?

What had Trump done with every institution that has bucked him? Fire and replace w lap dogs.

Tariffs on new products they are in effect have already made prices go up.

I’m safe in saying prices will go up on tariff goods when in place inventory runs out, and the tariffs are applied to new shipments.


Again, look at the effect of Tariffs on the crisis that never the Great Depression.

One day you will understand something’s cannot exists in the same realm.

We have not even broached the subject of whether a President has the unilateral authority to withdraw from Article II Treaties. That would include Senate ratified treaties concerning trade deals.

The S. Ct., has never resolved it. Goldwater failed to garner any majority. It is clear to me, this S. Ct., majority would expand presidential power as including such authority.

I do not believe the Constitution grants such authority. The last time the S. Ct., wrote about it in Goldwater the 1 of the 4 vote to dismiss believed Congress had to take some affirmative action through legislation to create a case on controversy. There was no majority rational.

The rational of the decision was as follows: 3 for a non justifiable political question that the Court could not resolve (conservative cowardly decision aimed not at addressing the nations issues. It saddens me Justice Marshall went along with it); 1 (Justice Powell) for the case not being ripe for adjudication bc Congress had taken no action to create the legal question passing a resolution, censure, or bill adverse to the President’s action of withdrawal; and 3 votes that unilateral treaty withdrawal by the President was unconstitutional.

Congress did not take any action as identified by Justice Powell. Thus, the matter never came back up.

Here we are.

The current appeal concerning the President’s executive authority to enact tariffs does not address this unilateral destruction of Article II treaties by this President either.

If we follow the rational of Justice Powell, the matter is still not ripe because this Congress has seen fit to surrender its prerogative to the Executive.

My guess answers Nute’s question. My guess is based on real works history and economics. My guess is not based on the Texas belief that 35 percent tariff on lumber will not affect building cost.

Therese, 3 percent growth today. Yeehaw! First Q2025 we had a decrease in GDP. What the GDP is today is meaningless to the economic Hell Trump is releasing. Economic Hell you know is coming, but you chose to ignore. Post positive while you can to keep folks faithful to the political course of this party on power.

Why? Otherwise, folks may vote them out at the midterms. The result being Dem political power. Or at least, enough to blunt the GOP social agenda.

Three percent today is good. Thank you for providing that data. Now, do you think Powell gets reappointed in May if interest rates are not lowered?

Assuming Powell is not reappointed, what type of person do you think Trump picks to replace him?

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:
From Tariffs are stupid to the biggest tariff advocate.

awww... it must be hard for liberals, i used facts and math - to show that they aren't going to crash the economy, and you revert with "nuh, uh, you love tariffs" ... one day, if you are lucky, you'll understand several things can be true at once

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:


Do you think Chairmen Powell will last past May?

don't care, per se - i'd like interest rate to go down under the same rules they went down on during biden.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:


What had Trump done with every institution that has bucked him? Fire and replace w lap dogs.

sorry, i diagramed that one out, and paper, then with the help of genAI - i THINK you meant to have the phrase "the leader of" before every institution. Obama did it, trump did it, biden did it, trump doing it again - Ah, but you've never had a big business job, where the CEO changes or a merger, and they replace most people in leadership - unless they pass certain tests -- such as being loyal to the new company vs old - and should they DARE be "political" and protest the new leadership team, they will be let go/reduced in prestige, cut off at next review (oh, if you ONLY had experience in that cascading process).

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:


Tariffs on new products they are in effect have already made prices go up.

oh, well, you copper price prediction was so spot on --- but the math of the MAXIMUM direct effect if above, it's not hard - will "this ONE THING from a reluctant trading partner go up" sure -- that's an anecdote - of which the plural is not "data"

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:

I’m safe in saying prices will go up on tariff goods when in place inventory runs out, and the tariffs are applied to new shipments.

not really, you might be "safe" in saying that the prices of newly imported specific goods might go up - you might look up this ancient finance metric, which has an old name "weeks of inventory" and a new name of "weeks of supply" ... gunna bet you never put in even one ERM system or built ERM reports to deliver that, and other metrics, to management. I think that's a "safe" bet - however, the MATH of the economy /gdp? max effort, 1% hit to gdp -

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:


Again, look at the effect of Tariffs on the crisis that never the Great Depression.

no clue what "that never" means in this sentence, but we'll assume you meant that time where tariffs were a contributing factor in the causes of the Great Depression -- sure, in a sheaf of other contributing causes, this could have been the straw that broke the camel's back -- however, you might education yourself on the other 47 depressions and recessions - here's a primer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...in_the_United_States it's a fascinating article and long list of contributing factors - though some of it is "coded" into financial technical terms - but there's a WHOLE SECTION on the recessions and depressions immediately, and i mean immediately, leading up to the "main event" - you should read it, it might not change you mind, but it will layout for you that there is no such thing a a re/depression in a vacuum ..


no, really, you should read the article --

Job growth slows during the summer hiring season.

Nothing to see here.

https://apple.news/AZgAkW-bjS5SWTpvr5jw6sw

I hope SCOTUS ends up kicking those tariffs to the curb since he has NO AUTHORITY to be fucking mit em.

I’m afraid they are going to take Goldwater, reason Congress has taken no action against the tariffs hold there is no justifiable controversy. Thus, dismiss.

That is the Far Right, Fake Conservative goal. Fir the Supreme Court to say, this is a political question that does not rise to a justifiable controversy wo a Congress have acting for us to adjudicate.

Or worse, take the Jackson concurrence which requires Congress to act in sanction of the Executive action, and find no constitutional violation.

quote:

Originally posted by ANTELOPEDUNDEE:
I hope SCOTUS ends up kicking those tariffs to the curb since he has NO AUTHORITY to be fucking mit em.

No surprise. Orange jesus has no authority for a lot of the shit he does..

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:
I’m afraid they are going to take Goldwater, reason Congress has taken no action against the tariffs hold there is no justifiable controversy. Thus, dismiss.

That is the Far Right, Fake Conservative goal. Fir the Supreme Court to say, this is a political question that does not rise to a justifiable controversy wo a Congress have acting for us to adjudicate.

Or worse, take the Jackson concurrence which requires Congress to act in sanction of the Executive action, and find no constitutional violation.

Why aren't the appellate judges seeing it this way? How can supposedly equally competent judges see things so differently? Whose opinion/s should be accepted then?

Because they do my want to grant an expensive power to the Executive.

This majority has seen more willing.

They have already overturned precedent restraining the Executive.

A few just want to placate him.

Chief Justice Roberts thinks not making a decision is not getting involved.

Why third will trump everyone else? The reason is the Constitution placed to final say with them. If one can’t or won’t live with that pass an amendment or take up arms.

I’ll live with it, and try to vote for folks who will self restrain.

My fear has been stated. My hope is the Executive is denied this defining, expansion of unilateral power.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:
Because they do my want to grant an expensive power to the Executive.

This majority has seen more willing.

They have already overturned precedent restraining the Executive.

A few just want to placate him.

Chief Justice Roberts thinks not making a decision is not getting involved.

Why third will trump everyone else? The reason is the Constitution placed to final say with them. If one can’t or won’t live with that pass an amendment or take up arms.

I’ll live with it, and try to vote for folks who will self restrain.

My fear has been stated. My hope is the Executive is denied this defining, expansion of unilateral power.

There you go, not allowing the issue to process through the courts and advocating taking up arms.

It is what it is.

If you are unwilling to accept the Court pick up a rifle or pass an amendment.

Unlike, you I know how a state could legally, unconstitutionally leave the Union.

reportedly, that 3% figure is not accurate.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:

Unlike, you I know how a state could legally, unconstitutionally leave the Union.

you might read that again, and tell us WHICH message you meant to convey ---