Yeah yeah, I know "Trump supporter " now that the emotive response has been posted

Real gdp up 3%

We not going to talk about it?

When you say real gdp.
This is not projected BS that is usually given correct?

The MSM is saying real gdp.

So is it because of him or in spite of him?

If you’re into making “real” money…the present economy is the best I have ever had the privilege of doing business in.

https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

Unfortunately, most of our economic information that comes from the government has been shown to be biased towards “the economy is doing great” and then quietly modified months later.

If the economy is expanding 3% in the last month and it is factual, that is great… but I will hold off on the claim until they get a chance to verify it.

I do note that the folks who were using the stock market as a bell weather for the economy and how Trump was such an idiot have moved on to other indicators.

I do think the economy has more to do with peoples feelings of personal economic security than any policy standpoint.

quote:

Originally posted by jeffeosso:

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

So how are these MSM folks rationalizing it? Not having a business all I really care about is the success of the few stocks that I own. For my own selfish reasons I hope rates stay as is so my money market funds keep generating RMD money. My son just got a show model residence at 5% so what's not to like?

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:
If you’re into making “real” money…the present economy is the best I have ever had the privilege of doing business in.

Time will tell, as always.

Reviewed my K1s for 24 and quarterly reports for 2025. Plot twist, 25 is back on track from 19 and 20...

quote:

Originally posted by jeffeosso:

quote:

Originally posted by Mike Mitchell:
https://www.reuters.com/world/...ng-trend-2025-07-30/

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that measurement grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand increased at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years.

Details of the Commerce Department's advance second-quarter gross domestic product report on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy that was losing steam as businesses and households grappled with uncertainty from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policy. Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports while also delaying higher duties to allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the White House.

That's a head scratcher.. how can gdp increase if the economy is shrinking? How, exactly, does declining imports increase gdp?

Unemployment is shockingly stable for the last 1.5 years. I would have expected a dip, but the federal employees may not be able make a claim till Oct 1

So, if monthly gdp has grown 3% (which is a big deal) what is covering the losses? It certainly isnt government spending

I'm no expert as I have repeatedly indicated. My guess is that they are trying to tamp down future expectations in light of the tariffs. Again, a completely uninformed opinion.

I'm no economic expert but at some point, trump's bullying, lying about the economy and the rest of the world's lack of confidence in a country that would elect a moron like trump to be POTUS will come home to roost.

I hope I'm wrong.

The tariffs have had no real effect yet because in trump world, they are all over the place, off again, on again. I don't think anybody knows yet what happens. What we do know is that our trading partners are going away.

The full effect of tariffs won’t be felt for at least 4-6 months, probably more. When the chickens come home to roost, we’ll see who is bragging and who is deadly quiet. Shit should be hitting the fan just in time for next year’s mid terms.

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
The tariffs have had no real effect yet because in trump world, they are all over the place, off again, on again. I don't think anybody knows yet what happens. What we do know is that our trading partners are going away.

Sometimes the best you can do is keep the plane right-side-up and let the turbulence have its way.
Minor course corrections might be in order to correct for tariffs, but wind drift is random for now.

That, and business keeps expecting exemptions and are living on current inventory.

History rhymes. The melody is set.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/ne...xclusions-recession/

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/...ariff-exemption.html

Again, let’s ignore the 2025 Q1 was a decrease.

Glad for any rebound.

Oh, and interest rates stayed the same because of tariff policy.

What is your (collective) take on this from the BBC?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5rm7v5166o

Increased short term revenue for the govt due to tariffs but that they will have a longer therm negative impact on the economy.

My take is the U.S. market will shrink once tariffs get rolling. Prices will go up, less demand. Materials, goods will move to other markets meaning less supplY.

Net result being not good.

Powell term is up in May. In May, he goes away. President Trump replaces him w a strong advocate. The result will be interest rates lowered.

Thus, more money in the system, available. Therefore, inflation.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:
My take is the U.S. market will shrink once tariffs get rolling. Prices will go up, less demand. Materials, goods will move to other markets meaning less supplY.

Net result being not good.

Powell term is up in May. In May, he goes away. President Trump replaces him w a strong advocate. The result will be interest rates lowered.

Thus, more money in the system, available. Therefore, inflation.

yep .. a guess -- entirely free of facts

1: GDP last year was roughly 30T -
2: about 10% of that, 3t, is imports
3: a 15% increase on 10% is 1.5% - ANNUALLY-
4: LESS THAN HALF the LOWEST inflation-causing-price-increases since 2021
5: 1.5% increase in prices? unlike eggs, we'll assume that EVERY has "perfect knowledge and perfect access" with zero deltas in shipping, and everyone KNOWS where the cheapest vendor .. okay, that's just stupid, but it's what neophytes might use
6: in reality, there's more price difference between walmart.com, amazon, and ebay, for the same products
7: copper and alum tarrifs have been dropped
net-effect? in technical absolutes, there could be a MEASURABLE, but insignificant increase in SOME prices

oh, and let's not forget a RECORD income from tariffs in june AND a 3% increase in GDP

there should be a tariff on creating doom and gloom

Only a couple of historical precedents and basic economics.

From Tariffs are stupid to the biggest tariff advocate.

Do you think Chairmen Powell will last past May?

What had Trump done with every institution that has bucked him? Fire and replace w lap dogs.

Tariffs on new products they are in effect have already made prices go up.

I’m safe in saying prices will go up on tariff goods when in place inventory runs out, and the tariffs are applied to new shipments.


Again, look at the effect of Tariffs on the crisis that never the Great Depression.