I decided to look a little deeper into this shortage thing, and cutting through the BS I think its 3 fold:

1. The Obama reign shut down on all the lead mining and China became our no. 1 importer of lead, with his efforts, then China ran the price of lead and availability up..Wonder what Obamas cut was in this deal, perhaps nothing but one sure as hell wonders.

2. 7 million new gun buyers popped up and the demand overroad the availability. Many of these new buyers were liberals arming themselves out of fear supposedly and in the younger generation! good or bad, who knows!

3. Panic buying of components in fear of the Biden adminastration, and the gun haters in power, with nothing but comtempt for the constition..

Thats about it best I have been able to come up with in facts not fiction..If anyone has fact to add, Id love to add it to the list if its varified within reason.

Additionally and ooff the subject, I recall when the airlines made firearms transportation illegal, and the rules made some bad turns during the Kennedys Administration, and the first person caught with a gun boarding a plane was Teddy K himself, who said he didn't know he had it on!! Liberal democrats plan to arm themselves of course and disarm the public,thats to protect themselves from irate citizens who they pass off as terriost, Hell, they been doing that for years.

The fact is, and it only one fact, is called Dems/Lihs/Socialists, in Power.
I have seen it happen every time one of those gets to be President, or takes control of Congress, since the GCA of 1968. The result is panic buying of everything; handguns, AR types, and all components. And hoarding of the same by people two already have a lifetime supply.
The market is driven by fear and greed; same here.
Nothing to do with raw material supply chain; it is due to supercharged demand.

There is no shortage of anything. Just people faster than you who make it to the stores and buy everything they get their hands on.

Both the two largest lead zinc mines in the world, the Sullivan and Broken Hill have run their course. Neither was in USA.

Lead zinc smelters are incredibly dirty. If you work in one, there is a good chance your pencil may lose it's lead. They don't tell you that. When I worked in one, my PPE made the Ebola nurses look unprotected. You get leaded, a flight of stairs takes three rests. They don't tell you that either.

My 338-06 dies screwed up, so I went online looking a replacement. Out of Stock, damm near every caliber. You can't blame that on liberals, Who ever heard of a liberal reloading..


It's the TP thing all over again. Silly panic.

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
There is no shortage of anything. Just people faster than you who make it to the stores and buy everything they get their hands on.

Kind of true.


The tragedy of the commons.

quote:

Originally posted by DWT2:

My 338-06 dies screwed up, so I went online looking a replacement. Out of Stock, damm near every caliber. You can't blame that on liberals, Who ever heard of a liberal reloading..


It's the TP thing all over again. Silly panic.

True, to a point, the liberals don't reload but the million new gun owners do and that's because of liberal ideals/riots, gun ban talk etc. Covid shutdown have had an impact too.

It might be silly but its reality!

Ray hit a homerun with his explanation of what's going on.

Primers? Ammo makers are using them all to make ammo, which is in great demand for all the reasons listed by Ray above. The reloaders take back-seat again.

Zeke

Not sure about the lead theory; one of my customers recycles lead acid batteries and one of their biggest customers is Federal.

Just irrational hoarding.

No one is banning 22lr.

I am selling ammo and buying guns instead.

In 12-24 months it will all sort itself out.

Terrible that US ammo demand has largely become panic driven.

Mike

Lead shortage is NOT the problem!
Demi/libs/socialists, is.
Actually, it's the reaction to them.
It's cyclical.

Yeah, I know it real, half a dozen gun stories just to find 7mmRM brass, only slightly less common a round than 30-06.

Supply chains are fractured. Parts for quads that use to take two days ,take two weeks. If they have them. I ordered a sander almost two months ago, merely a DeWalt. Just in time parts don't work now.

People have changed there hobbies or more to the point picked up new ones. Last fall I had to take my quad into the shop, computers. There was a waiting list for shop time, everybody had been out on their quads. And there was no quads on the floor for sale. Lots more hunters. Reloading is popular like canning has become. Try getting
canning supplies.

Then add a large dose of silly panic buying, and you have a shortage.

Well I have had a hard time finding powder. I finally found some so I am good for awhile. But I did call Alliant and Hogdon. They both confirmed that powder is being made and shipped (imported also) as quickly as they can. I called for two reasons, my own curiosity and the theories I had heard that powder companies had slowed production.

ammo makers are not using all the primers.
it's an impossibility.

they were running 24-7 2 years ago which is maximum factory speed.
they are running 24-7 now, which is also maximum factory speed.
you can't run a factory any faster than 24-7 maximum speed.
so... how are they using more primers?

what's happening is guys are using web crawlers to get a notification within 15 seconds of primers going on sale at someplace like
mid-south or midway and then buying them.

I was on a site yesterday and seen some shot shell primers blip up I have been looking for.

I tried putting them in my shopping cart and they were all sold before I could push the button.
under one minute and the whole supply of them were gone.

There is no production shortage.

No one is under producing. Every manufacture is producing at full capacity.

If you want to pay $1 for 556 or $1-$2 for 9mm range ammo - you can buy as much as you want.

The shelves at acamdey were empty other than for 17 hmr, 35 Whellen and 25/06.

Now academy has correctly jacked the price up - 556 green tips were $13 a box from $8-$9 and ammo remains on the shelf.

Supply demand works.

Buying $2 a round 9mm to hoard is stupid. If you have a significant disposable income and want to shoot $2 9mm go for it.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by MyNameIsEarl:
Well I have had a hard time finding powder. I finally found some so I am good for awhile. But I did call Alliant and Hogdon. They both confirmed that powder is being made and shipped (imported also) as quickly as they can. I called for two reasons, my own curiosity and the theories I had heard that powder companies had slowed production.

The “imported” part of this is important. The powders I use are Belgian or Australian.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I've been holding on to my stash because who knows if it will get worse.

Ray forgot one factor, the shutdown of the Remington plant since November, which reduced overall supply.

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
There is no shortage of anything. Just people faster than you who make it to the stores and buy everything they get their hands on.

Sadly it is people who think they are #1, #2 and #3 in this world having no thought or regard for others even their fellow hunters and shooters. Judging by the posting or more often boasting from more than a few on this forum who have hoarded large stocks of reloading components and ammo and who buy up everything they come across in shops or other outlets, sadly these people are closely among us.

Lamar an associated story. In 08, Leonard Cohen was coming to Austin. The tickets were not to go on sale until 10:00 Friday morning. I logged on at 9:45 + all the tickets were sold. HMMM. Scalpers of course + the fact that 2 tickets that should have cost me $80.00 cost me $480.00. I resent the scalpers but I don't regret seeing Leonard at 72 years old. "Take what you can when it is there."

quote:

Originally posted by eagle27:

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
There is no shortage of anything. Just people faster than you who make it to the stores and buy everything they get their hands on.

Sadly it is people who think they are #1, #2 and #3 in this world having no thought or regard for others even their fellow hunters and shooters. Judging by the posting or more often boasting from more than a few on this forum who have hoarded large stocks of reloading components and ammo and who buy up everything they come across in shops or other outlets, sadly these people are closely among us.

What is wrong in being stockpiled. I am actually selling down some of ammo.

But being prepared allows me to shoot when there are no shooters at the range. I have thousands of rounds of 270 308 30/06 6.5 creedmoor to shoot.

I am also buying ammo. If someone is selling 300 Norma mag for $2 a round - I will buy 1000s of rounds. In few years 300 Norma once shot brass will probably sell for $2.


In time this will get ugly. In 2-5 years there will be little demand for a lot of hunting ammo. People have already bought a lifetime supply.

Markets equilibrate. I have seen gunshops selling ammo from Oman national armories (556) - eventually new supply comes.

It’s good to have a stockpile before a crisis not build one during a crisis.

Mike

There is no ammuniton shortage in Europe. In this winter i have bought .22lr ammo and 222r ammo plenty of stuff on the shelf to choose from in the store, i bought the powder and primers i came for the only stuff they were out of was hornady 300blk ammo and/or brass because it was imported from US.

I may not be as close to this as some but I have a question. If the main problem was Obama and now Biden how come the problem didn't go away for 4 years during the Trump administration ?

quote:

Originally posted by snowman:
I may not be as close to this as some but I have a question. If the main problem was Obama and now Biden how come the problem didn't go away for 4 years during the Trump administration ?

snowman, I had no issues getting anything I needed up until about September of 2020. Primers were readily available for $25 to $35 per 1000 and powder was available $25 to $35 per pound. I could find just about any bullets I wanted.

Today, they fly off the shelves as soon as the store gets them in. People on Gunbroker are paying 4 times retail for powder, bullets, and ammo. I was looking for Nosler bullets which retailed in September for $60 per 100 sell on Gunbroker yesterday for $180. I refuse to pay those prices, luckily I found 100 for $75 because the auction was labeled weird and did not appear in a normal search (I got lucky).

I have no problem with stockpiles or a rainy day cache. What I do have a problem with is people scarfing up ammo or other supplies just because. I have extras of some bullets that I will never use or may not use for a long time, If I see people that need it, I offer it for what I paid or trade.

Trust me, the problem did go away during the Trump years. Why? Because we knew he was not going to propose any more idiotic gun restrictions.
Here is why some are confused by that; in 2016 when the entire world thought Hillary was going to win, we knew what would happen with gun laws; so the buying/hoarding cycle started in 2016. It took a year to self correct, and until 2020, everything was fine. Then when it looked like the gems were going to get power again, you know what happened.
As for hoarding, yes I have friends who bought up everything they could; with several lifetime supplies of components. That is the problem. It's artificial demand.

There are a lot of individuals who thrive on this current atmosphere and are themselves paying top dollar for ammo and components to mark up once more and resell.
Along those lines there are a few who will have paid to much to late and be left with an over abundance of ammo that they will have to sell at a loss. I cherish the day it happens.
I ran into a guy last fall boasting he had 65000 ronds of .22 long...
Why in the world would an individual need that much .22 ammunition?

like stated above the problem did go away during Trump.

so much so that the factories were offering rebates, and the on shelf price had dropped almost 30% on primers.

quote:

I ran into a guy last fall boasting he had 65000 ronds of .22 long...
Why in the world would an individual need that much .22 ammunition?

At one time I was shooting 400 to 500 rounds a week in practice of 22LR. at 450 a week on the average that's over 23000 rounds a years.

65000 rounds is less then 3 years worth.

I came real close to ordering 100,000 rounds in one order.

Dam I am regretting not doing that in 2006- 2007 time frame $8.50 per 500.

Some of us do shoot more then a few rounds a year.

Judging by the repeated attempts at gun control, the uncertainty politicians are creating isn't going to alleviate the demand for bullets, primers, powder and brass any time soon. Stories of new gun control measures being introduced are now a weekly event or so it seems.

Guys went to a gun show last week in Allentown, PA.

Powder - $75 lb (pre Biden usually $25-35)
Primers = $150-200 / thousand ( pre Biden usually $30-$35)

They said not many people were buying but there was plenty of supplies.

edit

At these prices 1 sale pays the table/entrance/gas/food/lodging

and here i am, complaining about destoryer carbines, when you can find them, being 10x of when they were still coming in .. and swedes.. sks, turks only 6x

it's called supply, demand, and aftermarket .. like the first c8 corvette going for 5x retail

it aint great, but it is real

A lot of this started way before election, I assumed it was covid panic. Or maybe many already thought trump would loose last fall

quote:

Originally posted by eagle27:

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
There is no shortage of anything. Just people faster than you who make it to the stores and buy everything they get their hands on.

Sadly it is people who think they are #1, #2 and #3 in this world having no thought or regard for others even their fellow hunters and shooters. Judging by the posting or more often boasting from more than a few on this forum who have hoarded large stocks of reloading components and ammo and who buy up everything they come across in shops or other outlets, sadly these people are closely among us.

No one is entitled to buy what they want, when they want, at the price they want. They just think they are.

quote:

No one is entitled to buy what they want, when they want, at the price they want. They just think they are.

For a lot of this countries history we have been very blessed and fortunate in that regard.

I am afraid that our standard of living is about to decline.

It depends what you do, but for a lot, it's been declining for awhile. Shopping at Walmart versus Sears.

I maybe can see the shortages on AR platform stuff, political rhetoric being what it is, but why buy up all the 338-06 dies. It's a moose round.

I think some of it isn't that they got bought up, but that more haven't been made.

I have watched bullet jackets at Speer from 96$ a thousand delivered to 124, then 168 in a 2 week period with added shipping costs.
I'm pretty positive it's the same lot of jackets that's been sitting there since they moved them from the production floor to the shelf because they've never been out of stock.

Some of us do shoot more then a few rounds a year.[/QUOTE]

Trust me I shoot plenty and have plenty of ammo and components at my disposal but I still see no reasoning to hoard that much ammo when at the time he acquired it was plentiful on the shelves.

Much like those that lived though the Great Depression, all their never throw out anything that can be useful, I've learned some lessons.

1) there will always be mass silliness's. Much like spring fellows winter. They will never learn.
2) buy enough odd ball caliber brass when you can get it.
3) get two sets of dies in each caliber when you can. When you need a replacement, they will be sold out.

I could not shoot up all my ammo, I can't live that long, couldn't have if I was 20 come to think of it, and hey Im not a horder, just love to shoot and come up with special reloads, and spend too much time in the shop reloading on cold winter months in Idaho and thats a lot of months in Idaho..The shortage should not bother me but it does and Obama created it when he shut down lead mining and probably got some kickback from China our new major lead importer who in the meantime have quadrupled the cost of lead..

Now I sit in the shop, so guess I will sell all my ammo and components and go buy myself a new rope horse..I just can't sit around doing nothing

Cominco were still getting ore from the Red Dog mine in Alaska in 2014.

Yeah...well...when you have 100,000 primers, leave some on the shelves for the next guy.

I agree. That's one of the things that really piss me off is the hoarders that buy everything up only to mark it up to fxxk their fellow shooters. Bad form, manners, + character.