quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:
However, is it accurate enough to base the decision on seizure of a mans property, reputation or even more so, freedom?

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
Can someone please enlighten us how they age lions?

All I hear is that it is not a 100% certain.

quote:

Originally posted by Bwanamich:
Thank you Saeed and others that suggested a specific forum be started.

Ladies and gentlemen and fellow LCTF members and participants; In my role with TGTS and WWS, I have had the good fortune to put in practice most of what has been dicussed over recent weeks/months. I believe that the 10 or so years of experience gained through this process with these companies has given me and my colleagues a lot of insight, often through unfortunate trial and error, into the aging of wild lions.

Below are a few observations:
1- Trying to accurately (And by accurately I mean whitin 10 - 12 mths) age a wild lion from a trophy photo alone - or even from a regular photo of a live lion - is fairly innacurate. The same lion can be photographed several times by the same camera within a few minutes and the image results can be quite different. This in particular reference to trying to use body color and mane color as an age indicator from a photograph!
2- Therefore, if one is to try and age a lion from a set of trophy photos, of absolute necessity is to obtain photos showing;
- the entire body,
- close-up of the nose
- Close-up of the teeth
- Frontal picture showing the face and "crown"
- Any other obvious distinguishing features such as the spinal column, back leg markings, etc
In addition to the above, once the skull has been skinned and cleaned, and BEFORE BLEACHING, additional pictures should be taken of:
- close-up of all canine including showing the "canine ridge"
- close-up of incisors
- Close-up of molars from the top and inside looking out (upper and lower jaw can be separated to achieve this).
Below are a couple of examples of such photos;






canine ridge




The canine ridge wear I have always found to be a good indicator. Again, this indicator helps in putting the lion's age into age groups only! I have found that lions 5 and older will often have distinct wear on the ridge of the canine and practically 100% of the lions that i have estimated to be 6 or older have shown wear on this ridge and 100% of the lions I have aged under 5 have NOT shown wear on this ridge. Lions aged between 5 and 6 have shown ridge wear in approximately 40% of the times. Below and above are an example of the ridge wear I speak off.




and the lion it belongs to (Note the prominent spine indicative of an older lion!) :



vs a canine showing no or very little ridge wear:





A quick word on the prominent spine: I have noticed that this is only very distinct in cats that are a few years older than 6! If I see this indicator, 9 times out of 10 the other indicators will confirm the cat is well over 6!
3- Obtaining a tooth x-ray of the premolar is very simple and extremely useful in helping to confirm all the "visual" and physical signs of age from a set of photos.
4- In addition to set of photos and tooth x-ray, I place a huge importance on the physical examination of the cleaned skull. The wear on the teeth has shown us to be a hugely important criteria to age determination.
5- The combination of all this data was used over a period of 3-4 years to compare with photos of Known age lions from researcher's database to assist us all in learning what to look for in a 6 year old lion. What we immeadiately noticed, is that initially, we were mostly over estimating the age of lions by as much as 2-3 years! A perfect example is the below lion.



The Ph (and most all concurred) aged this lion at around 6 year old when it was taken (2005). Upon further examination of the teeth, x-ray and skull, the age estimation was set at between 4 - 5 years old! Below is the x-ray of this cat's pre-molar confirming this:



The bottom line, and I have said this before here on AR, learning to age wild lions prior to shooting them is a learning curve and will take a couple of years to streamline to a point where the taking of a sub 6 yo lion are an exception rather than the norm....BUT, mistakes will continue to occur.

One of the challenges that I have thrown to the scientific fraternity (WCS, C Packer, P Viljoen, et alia)is to strive to obtain as much tooth x-ray and tooth wear photographic data as possible from Known aged lions across the continent and allow this data to be freely shared! I even encouraged them to work with zoos around the world to obtain x-rays of their known aged lions! I firmly believe that the more one "studies" the entire set of data (photos, x-ray, skull examinations, tooth wear pictures and so on), the more they will be able to confidently age lions in the wild prior to being shot.

If we look at the below skull image of the lion recently taken in Zim, one can notice that there is very little wear on the canine, incisors and the molars (You have to zoom in). The "ridges" of the molars are very sharp and pointed, all incisors are intact and appear quite "white".



I would age this lion at around 4 from an overall assessment of the photos available.

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
Can someone please enlighten us how they age lions?

All I hear is that it is not a 100% certain.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Lane - Elaborate on this a bit more will ya please!

Certainly.

All mammals as they age...narrow their pulp cavities with cementum (a medium hard component of tooth structure).



Some animals like white-tail deer and red fox to name a few...lay down layers annually making layer counting possible for age estimation.

Lions though don't conform. Probably due to a very eratic diet...they lay down cementum layers (Cementum Annuli) eratically making that method (at least as we know how to use it now) unreliable.

We do know that the lion pulp cavity gets remarkably and reliably narrow by 5-6 years of age...then narrows continually but by smaller increments through the end of life.


~4 year old lion 2nd upper premolar this is a known aged lion (photo courtesy of CP)


(borrowed from Bwanamich with captions added)


probable 6 year old harvested in Tanzania

So...x-rays relably can catagorize lions into less than 5, 5-7, and >7...they cannot tell exact age nor can counting cementum annuli.

With wear patterns and x-rays...good estimations can be made (certainly good enough to put the lion at 5 or > but exact ages can ont be given.

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:
Andrew,
Your above short statement says much. It would seem to me that the process of aging a dead lion is accurate enough for aid in management decisions. However, is it accurate enough to base the decision on seizure of a mans property, reputation or even more so, freedom?

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:
Andrew,
Your above short statement says much. It would seem to me that the process of aging a dead lion is accurate enough for aid in management decisions. However, is it accurate enough to base the decision on seizure of a mans property, reputation or even more so, freedom?

No, you would probably require an 18 month margin for error. Even then you could expect miscalculations.

quote:

Originally posted by Aaron Neilson:

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:
Andrew,
Your above short statement says much. It would seem to me that the process of aging a dead lion is accurate enough for aid in management decisions. However, is it accurate enough to base the decision on seizure of a mans property, reputation or even more so, freedom?

No, you would probably require an 18 month margin for error. Even then you could expect miscalculations.

I think a 12 month margin of error would be acceptable. Secondly, a line/law has to be drawn somewhere.

quote:

Yes, mistakes do happen, to all of us. If your PH makes a mistake, he needs to be responsible for it.

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:

quote:

Yes, mistakes do happen, to all of us. If your PH makes a mistake, he needs to be responsible for it.

This is the problem with writing laws in reference to aging. You make a mistake, you are a criminal.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:
Andrew,

Did Paula age those lions with x-rays of the second upper premolar (first upper cheek tooth)?

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
I think the problem is that lions, like people, do all age the same way. Some age more gracefully than others. Trying judge a live wild lion that precisely in this manner is a recipe for disaster.

quote:

First Lion picture is taken from your thread above.

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:

quote:

Yes, mistakes do happen, to all of us. If your PH makes a mistake, he needs to be responsible for it.

This is the problem with writing laws in reference to aging. You make a mistake, you are a criminal.

quote:

How many people will be willing to pay what TZ costs with those kind of success rates? I am willing to bet the answer is not many.

quote:

Likely,

quote:

"likely a level-headed policy is being used"

quote:

Originally posted by martin pieters:
Andrew I agree with you totally
Mart

quote:

That is what we (LCTF) are advising. We made effort in TZ...but it was too late the 6 year old rule was the law of the land there.

quote:

Originally posted by fujotupu:

quote:

That is what we (LCTF) are advising. We made effort in TZ...but it was too late the 6 year old rule was the law of the land there.

And who would be responsible for that decision?

If it is of any consolation to whoever contributed to the passing of the 6 yr law there won't be many legal kills in the future but more illegal ones and the numbers will be even higher with every passing year.

quote:

Originally posted by 505 gibbs:

quote:

How many people will be willing to pay what TZ costs with those kind of success rates? I am willing to bet the answer is not many.

Bwanamich?

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
What do you all think is going to happen in 2013 when many of the prime areas in TZ are turned over to less conservation minded people than run the areas now? I will bet I have a pretty good idea. I am willing to bet the lions get hammered, 6 year old rule or not.

quote:

Originally posted by African Hunters Quest:

quote:

Likely,

Aaron

The fact still remains. You are championing a cause that you have admitted you have no idea how it will work. While you think you have an idea the use of the word likely every time we get to the crux of the matter says a lot about where you stand in the food chain.

Would you be willing to go to Jail, Loose your reputation, Your family and your friends all because you made a mistake and shot a lion that had been snacking on back to back buffalo its whole life and looked like a 6 year old when he was just a massive 3 year old.
The science you are embracing has its place, but that place is not in deciding peoples fate, it is in developing a better way to asses lion populations. It is a way to determine quotas. It is a way to try and ensure you are doing the right thing and taking off the right males. But it is not a valid enough reason to punish your countrymen for non compliance.

If this turns into a stick with which some poor sod gets hit and looses everything, will you be happy with the outcome. You do realise that the "But Craig Packer said" defense will get you nowhere.

You are advocating and supporting a system that has real life ruining consequences for your average joe yet you cannot quantify or justify what exactly you are proposing as a measure to implement these rules.

You are supporting a system aimed at penalising hunters as a means of control rather than analising populations to achieve the same goal.

We all support the end goal here so stop harping on with the "I cant believe it speech".
What all of us are not happy with is that you are calling yourself an expert and wearing the shoes of "The lion hunters representative" yet are not listening to valid concerns raised by many of the lion hunters.
You are going along with a plan of action yet cannot quantify the details of that plan when asked about them.
You are supporting a man who blatantly skews figures to suit his outcomes and has been accused by many of being anti hunting.
You have taken a defensive approach to anyone and anything that challenges the paradigm that you have adopted and end up completely blind to the flaws because you are emotionally attached to the subject.
A representative of any group needs to remain neutral and evaluate the pros and cons and present these facts without prejudice.
Because you believe this course of action to be suitable, does not give you the right to further this agenda on behalf of all lion hunters current or potential.

Now Aaron, we all appreciate the effort you have gone to. But it would appear that a great number of people have serious real life concerns with the direction this has taken.
Lions are very important to us all, but not more important that some poor sods life and future. 90% of hunters coming to Africa don't know the difference between an impala and a bushbuck, let alone a 3 and 6 year old lion.
To rest their future on "likely" is not fair to anyone.

You need a new plan. One that embraces research and population management. One that selects suitable males and builds in a margin for error that the outfitter and PH can deal with. Not one that simply punishes the paying client.

quote:

"likely a level-headed policy is being used"

This is just plain dangerous and supporting anything where this is your level of involvement and understanding is irresponsible

Good luck to you Aaron, your goals are admirable. But I really do hope you find a better way of doing it as what you propose will kill Lion hunting.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by fujotupu:

quote:

That is what we (LCTF) are advising. We made effort in TZ...but it was too late the 6 year old rule was the law of the land there.

And who would be responsible for that decision?

If it is of any consolation to whoever contributed to the passing of the 6 yr law there won't be many legal kills in the future but more illegal ones and the numbers will be even higher with every passing year.

Well? Who was responsible for that decision?

quote:

From tooth analysis this Lion did not make five?



And the teeth aged this at not more than four?



I would get shat on from a dizzy height if I tried to turn these Lion down with my high dollar paying client.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by fujotupu:

quote:

That is what we (LCTF) are advising. We made effort in TZ...but it was too late the 6 year old rule was the law of the land there.

And who would be responsible for that decision?

If it is of any consolation to whoever contributed to the passing of the 6 yr law there won't be many legal kills in the future but more illegal ones and the numbers will be even higher with every passing year.

Well? Who was responsible for that decision?

The Tanzania government.

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Bwanamich:

I can only speak from personal experience. I spent something like $95,000 (all in) in TZ for a highly UNSUCCESSFUL 21 day hunt in TZ where the priority was lion. I never even saw a lion. This was with the same company that was 1 for 17 in 2011.

I went to Zimbabwe 3 years later with Zambezi Hunters. I spent about $55,000 all in. I got a magnificent lion, 3 buffalo, a 60 inch kudu and a ton of plains game. The lion was aged using the teeth at 7 years old. ZH is 100% on what few lions they take annually.

So, you tell me. Should I pay almost double to hunt with someone that was 1 for 17 or should I save $40,000 and go with someone that is and has been 100% successful?

I can do that math. Believe me, booking agents are discussing this very issue already.

And by the way, when was the last time Zim closed lion hunting in the middle of the season? When was the last time Zim made massive changes to the fee structure mid-season?

Yup, I can see compelling reasons to never go to TZ again. I have mellowed over time about this. I may well go again. However it won't be until after 2013.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by fujotupu:

quote:

That is what we (LCTF) are advising. We made effort in TZ...but it was too late the 6 year old rule was the law of the land there.

And who would be responsible for that decision?

If it is of any consolation to whoever contributed to the passing of the 6 yr law there won't be many legal kills in the future but more illegal ones and the numbers will be even higher with every passing year.

Well? Who was responsible for that decision?

The Tanzania government.