www.zimelectionresults.com

Preliminary independent results

Well let's see if Bob can steal this one.

Not good

quote:

Security and government officials loyal to Mugabe have warned Tsvangirai against declaring a victory. "It is called a coup d'etat and we all know how coups are handled," chief presidential spokesman George Charamba was quoted as saying in the state-controlled Sunday Mail newspaper.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080330/ap_on_re_af/zimbabwe_elections

quote:

Two South African members of a regional observer mission said the delay in announcing the election results "underscores the fear that vote-rigging is taking place".

They refused to sign a positive preliminary report on the poll by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and said there was evidence of "widespread and convincing" MDC wins. ~ Reuters.

Bob at play here again!!!

BBC has regularly updated coverage as well as publishing text messages from Zim at; news.bbc.co.uk

SA observers: Send peacekeepers
31/03/2008 15:33 - (SA)

Johannesburg - Three members of the ANC Youth League's Zimbabwean election observer team have returned early because of constant surveillance amounting to intimidation by Central Intelligence Officers (CIO).

In a statement on Monday, the league said three members returned early and one member - based in Bulawayo - had been interrogated by the CIO.

"This shows the level of intimidation that is still prevalent in Zimbabwe," it said.

However, the league said it was pleased that the Zimbabwe government had allowed its delegation to enter and leave the country without any major interference.

The league said it had found that conditions for a free and fair election were not evident.

Included in its reasons cited, the league said the state controlled media (the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and the Herald newspaper) had openly campaigned for the President Robert Mugabe.

This was done by vilifying the opponents and giving more TV airtime and paper space to the Zanu-PF.

There was no voter education and voters rolls were not given to the opposition.

It also noted that people had voted in areas where they did not live and that the country's electoral commission was run by senior leaders of the Zanu-PF.

Current results show MDC win

The league said there was a fear of rigging the presidential vote as current electoral results - displayed outside the various polling stations - showed that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had won the election in all four categories of polling.

"The remaining result for the Presidential contest is reported to be in favour of Morgan Tsvangirai," it said.

"There is fear of rigging the Presidential leg, thus the delay of the announcement of the results."

It was further feared that a type of "Kenyan situation" would occur, should Mugabe "force his way back".

"And there is the fear about the army and police staging a coup if the opposition takes the Presidency."

Send in peacekeepers

The ANCYL therefore called for the immediate deployment of SADC and United Nations peace keeping forces to avert any attempt towards "sinking" Zimbabwe into violence.

"This should serve as a post election process undertaken by all the parties involved in the elections and all the countries in the region," the league said.

News24

This may be Mugabe's last opportunity to get out with his hide and fortune intact. By acknowledging defeat, he could go to some friendly country which has no extradition treaty with Zim. Nigeria?

Here is some great gossip from Zimonline.com

HEADING FOR DISASTER IN THE COUNTRY

Global Zimbabwereceived the following information: Forum-USA has

CIO informant says meetings are taking place to determine the exact figures
that must be announced. This is no longer a question of how many votes were
tallied.

ZANUPF will be given over 100 seats
MDC (Tsvangirai) will be allocated 93 seats Rest will be shared among Makoni
and Mutambara

CIO is now waiting for people to go sleep s they can announce the results

Tomorrow's Herald (Tuesday) is going to publish that Mugabe has won the
elections.

The army has now been deployed around the country at full alert and with
orders to deal ruthlessly with any protests.

Waiting for ZEC results is now fruitless exercise.

Way forward?? - Nicholas Nickson Mada

crl

If the last post is true, then it is time for them to fight. The Zimbabwean army is a joke and can be crushed quickly. Payrole will deal with the army before the people could. However getting the violence to end as soon as the army and Mugabe are gone is a hole other dangerous matter.

BOY am I glad I am not over there right now. Zimbabwe is a powderkeg about to blow sky high. I hope none of our AR posters get caught in any sticky situations there.

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:
If the last post is true, then it is time for them to fight. The Zimbabwean army is a joke and can be crushed quickly. Payrole will deal with the army before the people could. However getting the violence to end as soon as the army and Mugabe are gone is a hole other dangerous matter.

And where will they get arms? It'll take a slew of AK's and a few million rounds of ammo, plus some RPD's, Dashikas, and RPG's to finish the fight.

Where's Mad Mike when we need him?

It certainly looks like this is going to be another African style election. I don't think that Bob can hang on much longer tho. The question is will he leave before the blood shed starts?

Thabo Mbeki flew in thismorning for a suprise visit- Obviously trying to persade bob to go quietly.

There is a heavy police presence everywhere in the capital- but none are armed! (unlike in previous years)

6 tanks (apparently the only ones serviceable) and several anti aircraft batteries are in obvious presence around state house (a quad 14.5 may not be state of the art for anti-aircraft work but it will sure chew up a mob!)

Unless Thabo applies sufficient pressure to the millitary chiefs, Bob will be declared president again by tomorrow morning.

Ganyana any salt in following possible scenario posted in "Zimbabwe Today":

quote:

My source says that he (Mugabe) was told there was no guarantee that the armed
services could keep down a violent rebellion. In recent years the forces had
been weakened by resignations and desertions, and many who still remain are
not zealous Zanu-PF supporters.

This shock for Mugabe came on top of another blow. Some days ago I
exclusively revealed on this site his plan to halt the election, if it went
badly, by getting the Supreme Court to uphold two appeals concerning
disqualified candidates.

The plan fell in ruins at Mugabe's feet when the Chief Justice, Godfrey
Chidyausiku, having previously agreed to co-operate, changed his mind and
refused to be pressured to give the judgement Mugabe wanted. Chidyausiku is
believed to have sided with Simba Makoni and the Mutambara faction of the
MDC.

During this morning an alternative, even outlandish plan for Mugabe's future
has been discussed. It would involve an army coup, staged by Zimbabwe
Defence Forces Chief General Constantine Chiwenga, shortly before final
results of the election are due to be announced.

The Army would rule for six months, calling new elections for September, and
allowing Mugabe to slip safely away to Malaysia where he has huge business
interests. Thus the old man would avoid being arrested and put on trial by
any new government.

My source within the JOC told me that if this happens, the army will appear
impartial and professional, it will agree that the election was rigged by
Zanu-PF, and everyone will believe that it is in favour of true democracy.

?

Jetdrvr,

There are a lot of weapons in the country allready. Desertion is very high also mostly because of the payroll problem I mentioned before. People tend not to risk thier lives for something worth less than toilet paper, and the ranks of people that will die for the principal beliefs of Mugabe are getting fewer and farther between. Last as in most third world revolutions look for funding from outside countries with protected interest in Zimbabwe. Mainly the Chinese.

Mouse- Anything is possible... there are many in the upper ranks of the army police airforce and CIO that would get a free drop on the end of a rope if they were ever to appear before any court- Genocide is a nasty charge...Murder is not much better and without a benevolent president to pardon them...

I belive that the military and police chiefs are actually more frightened than bob. Bob can at least run away and live comfortably in many places. They cannot. They have massive wealth locally, and nobody wants a third tier butcher - they don't have personal friends in the right places in other countries... and who wants to sudenly be a poor, unwanted guest in North Korea or Iran?

The military leaders have made it abundently clear that they will not accept Morgan Tsangarai - the leader of the main oposition. I think most secretly backed Simba Makoni, the former finance minister who is (IMHO) a better choice, but he didn't have enough time to build the support he needed and his political backers in the ruling party got cold feet.

Not easy...One thing though, I don't belive there will be widespread unrest. Too few of the MDC leaders are the sort to get out onto the street and lead the people, and there are pathetically few firearms in the hands of anybody who is anti government to actually do any good.

With real leadership I think you could count on 3/4 of the Army and 90%+ of the police rallying behind the oposition- but the oposition has made no real contingency plans, and , as noted above, they lack hard leadership.

Thanks for the word on the ground Ganyana. I find it interesting that Mbeki was prepared to go in, not that the situation is violent despite some of the intimations in the press.

Thanks Ganyana. That's more helpful than a full day of the Zim Situation Report.

It seems to me that although this could turn into a Kenya situation...that it won't. The Zim tribes don't seem to have that kind of aggressiveness in them. Any comments on that?

The Matebele have had the fight knocked out of them in the 1980's. The shona are simply not an agressive people. Well led they can be - as were the RAR- but you need leadership, and that is lacking.

Also, hungry people riddled with aids and malaria are more concerned about the next meal than next year

quote:

Originally posted by smarterthanu:
Jetdrvr,

There are a lot of weapons in the country allready. Desertion is very high also mostly because of the payroll problem I mentioned before. People tend not to risk thier lives for something worth less than toilet paper, and the ranks of people that will die for the principal beliefs of Mugabe are getting fewer and farther between. Last as in most third world revolutions look for funding from outside countries with protected interest in Zimbabwe. Mainly the Chinese.

That's interesting about the Chinese. They do have a vested interest in the minerals. If the Army stays loyal, it could be very nasty, though. And the Chinese would have to go against Mugabe and fly in several tons of munitions. I've seen too many African civl wars to suit me. I hope it doesn't happen, because it's always the innocents who get slaughtered. I would love to see someone put a well-palced fifty cal round in Mugabe's center-of-mass, though. Ganyana says there are no pat solutions, and he's there, so I'll defer to him, naturally. I haven't been there in years.

Current Headline on CNN.com

Developing StoryJournalist in Zimbabwe tells CNN three opposition sources confirm President Robert Mugabe will step down.

The latest from BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7325286.stm

No blood bath?

What kind of African Country are we dealing with?

If true, that is very good news.

UEG

It is marginally good news for the people, but not for the game. Lots of very hungry people in that human resource rich nation.

SG Olds: Yes, you're right on that one, but it's a step in the right direction, for without it, the game's future (and ours as hunters there) is totally hopeless.

Mugabe has left the country and so has the VP. The rest are laying really low. Meanwhile, there is no clear winner (48 and 41%) so there will be a rerun between MDC/Changurai and Mugabe in 2 weeks. Sounds like Mugabe and his henchmen are either going to let the military deal with it while they are out of the country, or they are running for the hills.

Gyana.
Thank you for the on the ground report. My feeling when I was there last was that the average person there is not interested in anything other how do we get food and other necessities. I don't expect any coherent violent up rising.

If this goes off smoothly and Bob and most of his henchmen leave then I think there will be a massive influx of western aide into the country literally overnight.

quote:

Originally posted by Ganyana:
Mouse- Anything is possible... there are many in the upper ranks of the army police airforce and CIO that would get a free drop on the end of a rope if they were ever to appear before any court- Genocide is a nasty charge...Murder is not much better and without a benevolent president to pardon them...

I belive that the military and police chiefs are actually more frightened than bob. Bob can at least run away and live comfortably in many places. They cannot. They have massive wealth locally, and nobody wants a third tier butcher - they don't have personal friends in the right places in other countries... and who wants to sudenly be a poor, unwanted guest in North Korea or Iran?

The military leaders have made it abundently clear that they will not accept Morgan Tsangarai - the leader of the main oposition. I think most secretly backed Simba Makoni, the former finance minister who is (IMHO) a better choice, but he didn't have enough time to build the support he needed and his political backers in the ruling party got cold feet.

Not easy...One thing though, I don't belive there will be widespread unrest. Too few of the MDC leaders are the sort to get out onto the street and lead the people, and there are pathetically few firearms in the hands of anybody who is anti government to actually do any good.

With real leadership I think you could count on 3/4 of the Army and 90%+ of the police rallying behind the oposition- but the oposition has made no real contingency plans, and , as noted above, they lack hard leadership.

I'm glad that one of your statements reflected that it was your humble opinion but think that you should have rounded off your entire blurt with the fact that it was, indeed, only your opinion. It is certainly not the opinion of the people of Zimbabwe. MDC lacks leadership???? So where have you been the last 8 years whilst Tsvangirai has been in the frontline bearing the brunt? Lacks leadership but has rallied millions of people behind him under extreme duress? Yeah right. Maybe we should all stick to what we know and in your case this would mean ballistics.

Sincerely behind my leader, Morgan

David Hulme

Good day every body
My name is Hendrik
Just heard on the radio the elections are head on head but the results will all be out by this evening CAT. I also hope Rob is out
regards Hendrik

Still no news...but bob was certainly around yesterday mid afternoon - He was at his late sisters house (she died on Sunday and the state funeral is Friday?) Speculation that he has taken a holiday to Malaysia seem a little premature.

Bottom Line is Mugabe has been defeated...finally...Now where it goes from here is going to be the most interesting part. Bobby Mu is not done yet. Maybe though he will listen to his cronie Mbiki and ease out though I doubt it greatly.

Jeff

It will be interesting to see how many hunts are cancelled or transferred to other areas as the ZANUPF folks are removed and either the rightful owner or an MDC politico is put in charge. Mugabe will not go and a runoff will give him time to prepare to steal the election properly. The next 24 hours will be key to the near future.

Zanu-PF loses majority
02/April/2008 16:12 - (SA)

Harare - Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF party has lost its majority in parliament, according to figures announced by the electoral commission on Wednesday.

Latest results gave the opposition Movement for Democratic Change 105 seats while an independent candidate, Mugabe's former information minister Jonathan Moyo, also retained his seat in the 210-member chamber.

The results mean that Zanu-PF, on 93 seats with only a handful of results still to be announced, has lost its parliamentary majority.

http://www.news24.com/News24/Africa/Zimbabwe/0,,2-11-1662_2298695,00.html
--------------------

Well, if true and accurate, this is good news. This further weakens Mugabe's position and power base.

-Bob F.

quote:

Harare - Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF party has lost its majority in parliament

A good sign yes! But of course, if he steals the election/run-off and remains President, he can simply disband the parliament!

I am seeing more reports about Mugabe meeting with advisors and discussing a transfer of power and a plan of departure for Mugabe. It may be pure optimism on all of our parts but I sure hope that is correct.

I heard from a friend in Zim that there is a heavy police presence in most of Harare, and that power and telephone service has been out since the weekend (it was on most of last week where they live). I would say the mood is GUARDEDLY optomistic.

Anybody have a hunt planned for this summer?

N'gagi,
I've got 10 days in July booked in Sengwe 11 for non-trophy elephant and buffalo. I'm following the news with great interest.

There are hunters there right now and many more AR members will be there in the next few months.

I would go in a heart beat. If anybody is feeling uneasy, let me know.