Sounds like no one on this forum is taking advantage of the launch of the stock market since the last quarter of last year. A lot of complaining about Washington on the Political thread, but no one seems to be taking advantage of the Fed and the rebound of the economy.

I have the feeling people still think they can make more money investing in baseball cards, horses, and guns; or going to Las Vegas.

Some people would rather complain than make money. I had an OIM once, the only man in my organisation who wouldn't join the company 401k, which dollar for dollar would match the first 5% of his salary. He was from Oklahoma. He swore he made more money raising and selling horses. His friends said he barely broke even.

I tried to explain the concept of free money to him, but it never sank in.

I know gold is the favorite of some. To me it is equities and residential real estate.

That is the nice point about land;they're not making any more of it.

quote:

Originally posted by NormanConquest:
That is the nice point about land;they're not making any more of it.

You can't eat gold, and the guys have money left to buy it from you, probably got it from you in the first place.

Believe me, when this country crashes...your guns and ammo will be much more valuable than gold....and stocks won't be worth squat. Those that don't have a gun to ward off the 2 legged predators that will be running rampant will gladly give you just about anything they have left to get one. We are less than a decade away from this massive crash...it can happen any time now. When the gov't finally goes broke and can no longer tax the working man more to give to the entitled...the entitled will become enraged and "take" from those that have what they want/need...and that is going to start this massive crash and maybe even civil instability we have not seen in over a century. Be prepared for it's coming.

The major problem with real estate, if you don't have a lot of cash, is the carrying costs. Its easy to buy, but unless you have cash you have to pay interest, and of course taxes, and upkeep expenses. It can be done, but its not easy for the guy or gal that doesn't have a pile of cash money.

I'm not recommending that everyone jump into real estate investing, but a wise investor should consider ALL the carrying costs of ANY investment, and, in particular for real estate, if the ability to meet those costs is not readily available, then the investor should ONLY buy real estate that he can lease or rent for at least enough money to cover those costs. Plan for the worst and hope for the best. If you have substantial other assets, then incorporating should be considered, but it adds several problems itself.

Depending on what amount there is to invest, this might include anything from residential rentals (which can be from single family homes all the way up to very large apartment complexes), malls, office space, warehouses, to farm and pasture land. This list may not include all the possibilities but is listed in order of oversight necessary in my experience. Malls should probably first, depending on type. At one time or another I have been in all of the above except for malls.

There are some IF's BUT if someone has the money to buy, own and rent commercial warehouses, it is an extremely fine investment with absolutely minimal oversight involved IF the buyer does his research, and IF he has or can find a high quality tenant with a long term lease. If he does all of the above, he literally may not see the building for years at a time, while receiving monthly checks. My family and I were in commercial warehouses on a small scale for over 50 years and I just sold the last one dirt cheap to take advantage of last years expiring lower cap gains taxes and some other reasons. A wonderful business but not a get rich quick scheme. In commercial warehouses one has to take the long view.

I also can highly recommend forest land but a buyer will typically NOT have substantial yearly income to cover taxes, etc. but in the long run will likely find it to be a very high quality investment with excellent returns. Depending on location and terrain, in certain areas it might lease for hunting for enough rent to cover ad val taxes.

IMO farm land in general is in a bubble right now and I would avoid it like the plague unless you are in the farming business and really know what the value is of what you're buying.

One would think that the dangers of moving into the Stock Market at historically high valuations would be obvious.

quote:

silvertip1: The major problem with real estate, if you don't have a lot of cash, is the carrying costs. Its easy to buy, but unless you have cash you have to pay interest, and of course taxes, and upkeep expenses. It can be done, but its not easy for the guy or gal that doesn't have a pile of cash money.

Even bigger problem is lack of liquidity. Takes time to sell real estate, even the best properties in the best markets.
I can sell a stock with the click of a mouse in any market environment.

quote:

Originally posted by fla3006:

quote:

silvertip1: The major problem with real estate, if you don't have a lot of cash, is the carrying costs. Its easy to buy, but unless you have cash you have to pay interest, and of course taxes, and upkeep expenses. It can be done, but its not easy for the guy or gal that doesn't have a pile of cash money.

Even bigger problem is lack of liquidity. Takes time to sell real estate, even the best properties in the best markets.
I can sell a stock with the click of a mouse in any market environment.

Truer words were never spoken. Unless you're giving it away, selling any property (nice residential homes in a good marker might be an exception) is usually a 6 month to a year deal.
Like any investment, don't committ money that you might need for personal uses, even an emergency.

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:
Sounds like no one on this forum is taking advantage of the launch of the stock market since the last quarter of last year. A lot of complaining about Washington on the Political thread, but no one seems to be taking advantage of the Fed and the rebound of the economy.

I have the feeling people still think they can make more money investing in baseball cards, horses, and guns; or going to Las Vegas.

Some people would rather complain than make money. I had an OIM once, the only man in my organisation who wouldn't join the company 401k, which dollar for dollar would match the first 5% of his salary. He was from Oklahoma. He swore he made more money raising and selling horses. His friends said he barely broke even.

I tried to explain the concept of free money to him, but it never sank in.

I know gold is the favorite of some. To me it is equities and residential real estate.

My portfolio, a fair amount in equities, is up 7% YTD, so yeah, some are.

I'm seeing some good movement in residential real estate the past few weeks in the Dallas area, which makes me nervous, as I am looking again.

My daughter and son-in-law just bought a nice house in Frisco and were able to get a mortgage rate of 2.625%. That just amazes me. I re-financed homes a few years ago at 3.875% and thought I got a steal.

One of our Richardson homes that has been empty a month has just been re-leased for a year at $2,025 a month, a 12.5% increase, the rent we used to get in 2007.

I'll admit I am getting nervous about the steady rise in the stock market, but I continue to invest, keeping an eye on the exit.

I remember sitting in an airport lounge one night in Jakarta, Indonesia in 2007, with a sick feeling, and just before boarding the plane rushed to a computer and sold everything. I was kicking myself for about three months, then the bottom fell out of it, and it turned into the smartest move I ever made.

I find knowing when to sell much more difficult than knowing when to buy.

Right now if it's not a solid company, with a good dividend, and some momentum, I'm not interested.

This is not a recommendation, well, not really, but gold is down nearly a $100 today and silver is down over $2/oz. IF one is interested in buying precious metals I'd consider buying silver first, and then gold. I would committ about 10% of my precious metals investing capital at this point and keep doing so if PMs keep falling.

AFA the stock market is concerned, there are waaaay too many possible events that are negative as opposed to positive ones. Europe, Korea, China, end of treasury support, etc etc. I don't like it at these levels but it could go up as many are predicting. Given that the market is, ultimately, driven by earnings, I don't see where any broad based boost in earnings per share is coming from and I can certainly see why it might no occur. I only hold one stock at this point and it is a tiny market cap special situation that can only be classified as very risky.

Like Kensco says, IF I was buying, I'd ONLY buy big caps with LONG dividend payment records. I rarely say this, but I'd much rather have cash right now than stocks.

S&P 500 up 10.5%, Dow Jones up 11.3%, Mid Cap 400 up 13.3% year-to-date.

Everyone says when the Fed quits printing money everything will crash. With so much apprehension and uncertainty, perhaps the markets will keep rising, the consensus usually has it wrong. Still alot of investors with too much cash and low interest bonds who missed the bull. Then there's the theory, largely unrecognized by most and not fully discounted in the market, that the current domestic energy boom will lead to a long period of prosperity. Who knows.

Regarding real estate, we had no trouble selling our house in Houston for a handsome sum, and the markets in the Hill Country are very strong. Our house in Fredericksburg would probably cost 10-20% more today than what we paid a year ago. Rural property in the Hill Country and South Texas VERY strong. But Texas is different than most, folks are moving here, not leaving. States like CA, MI, NY, CT, that continue repressive policies of excessive regulation & high taxes will continue to experience outward migration.

The Austin / Hill Country market was too strong for me. We had planned to retire in Georgetown. We found some nice places at $150 per sq. ft. We could find the same house, with a larger lot in the Allen / Fairview area for $110 per sq. ft. Goodbye Georgetown.

I took a massive beating in the market today. Just have to take the bad with the good. It's not for the faint-hearted, that's for sure.

And then there's today.

And futures are up...

I read an article in Money magazine about mandatory retirement saving. It used Israel and Australia as the best examples. I tend to agree. I thought the Australia Superannuation was a little strange initially, but at least Australians have a savings. In four years you can save $40,000.

The average American is pretty lazy, saving next to nothing. One survey I read said 30% of 50-year-olds have less than $25,000 saved, and only half surveyed said they could come up with $2,000 within a month if they had an unexpected expense.

We tend to complain about the government, but then stand around with our hand out hoping they will put something in it when we hit retirement.

quote:

States like CA, MI, NY, CT, that continue repressive policies of excessive regulation & high taxes will continue to experience outward migration.

You got that right. Our current governor and democratic controlled legislature are trying to drive everyone out of Minnesota, except for enough people to pay for their own higher salaries that they are trying to get through right now.

The worst of it is that they want to once again increase the tax on booze, claiming its a sin to drink it (i.e sin tax)! When will it ever end?

Buy investment property with cash. 'Don't have it - don't buy it.

Texas hill country property (especially around Fbg.) is one wild market. Has been for many, many years. We're just south of town, still in Gillespie County. An appraiser told me years ago that if you can stand being over an hour-and-a-half from Austin or San Antonio, you can more than double your holding's size. 'Might be two hours now.

Stock market (balanced, diversified, mutual fund approach) is still one of the best games in town. Just don't check it too often.

I've got guns and ammo, vote Repulican and have read the occassional TEOTWAWKI website, but...after a while, the meltdown folks start to sound a lot like Jehovah's Witness.

Lastly, never, ever get investment advice off of an internet forum - find a REAL investment advisor. Not the ones, not to mention any names, that seem to literally be on every other corner.

People that want to invest in real estate but not own it should consider REITs.

I guess we all should have bought Netflix. What a move the other day.

I'm curious what a "real investment advisor" is. I spent my first fifteen years listening to "experts". The best knowledge I came way with was the knowledge that they didn't have a clue, and that their primary focus was to churn my account. Once I removed all the leeches, and started doing my own research, and listened to my gut, I started making good money.

Ninety-Five percent of what you get from CNBC and the financial websites is background noise. Listen for the other five percent.

Don't listen to people who don't have any "skin" in the game. They are just another "talking head".

One criteria I have is that if they came out of school after 1987, they can't tell me anything I don't already know. They don't have enough "life experience". My investing education was expensive, and at times painful, but that's the best kind. It stays with you.

To Hell with all investment advisors. Few of them are financial experts, most likely they sold cars, aluminum siding or shoes before getting their license. When they say buy odds are good their company is the one selling. And I'm 85% cash now, fwiw.

Funny you should mention, "when they say BUY, odds are good their company is the one selling". I had Eppler, Guerin & Turner in Abilene pull that game on me back in the early 70s with Pier 1 Imports. They had a great deal. Buy Pier One and pay no brokerage fee. Turns out they were dumping their position because it was such a "great deal".

I'm probably 65% in equities. I bought DUK and SPH today. Dividend plays.

Hopefully I will hear the music and bail out before Jaws srikes.

I'm glad to see greed has so far gotten the better of them.
http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews....t-quarter-loss.html/

I made good money investing in TXU before KKR & Co., TPG Capital and Goldman Sachs pulled-off their leveraged buyout, and sunk what was left of the company in debt. Probably hurt a lot of good people, ala Enron, WorldCom, etc. It's a shame these people never seem to get any jail-time.

Market on a tear today. Makes me wonder how high is UP.

quote:

I have the feeling people still think they can make more money investing in baseball cards, horses, and guns; or going to Las Vegas. Some people would rather complain than make money. I had an OIM once, the only man in my organisation who wouldn't join the company 401k, which dollar for dollar would match the first 5% of his salary. He was from Oklahoma. He swore he made more money raising and selling horses. His friends said he barely broke even. I tried to explain the concept of free money to him, but it never sank in.

The company I used to work for, tried that 5% thing and after a year they quit !!! Most of the people loved the "free money"

I was deep into the stock market when it crashed in 08, and glad I stayed there. But I certainly have diversified into bonds and farm real estate as well.
I try to think long term, diversify and don't try to hit home runs.

I have special memories of '87. I was managing a drilling company in Odessa, Texas that was about to go belly-up. The studs were in London working a deal that would give us a new lease on life for at least another five years. Meanwhile the stock market dropped off the cliff, and you couldn't get through to your broker by phone to cut your losses. You couldn't get through the crowd in front of the door to the broker's office to make a trade. The system was in gridlock anyway. You were simply screwed.

That is about the date when I told myself "experts" couldn't help me, they could just educate me, and I was paying for that education. I started educating myself, and making money in the market from that day forward.

The guys in the meeting in London said someone walked in and interrupted the meeting, whispered into the "white knights" ear, and he immediately closed the negotiation, shook their hands and carried them back to the airport. In less than two years the company withered and died on the vine.

quote:

Originally posted by Swamp_Fox:
One would think that the dangers of moving into the Stock Market at historically high valuations would be obvious.

I'd like to know who's buying. I suspect this is a new way to loot 401Ks; market-makers and hedge funds run up the stock prices until the music stops, then get out with the money. Very few people are going to complain about their 401K valuations going up, and when they go down again it will be too late to do much.

Conceptually, 401Ks make sense. In practice, any large pool of money left unattended for a period of years will attract scammers.

A 401K shouldn't be left unattended. Usually there are 10 to 12 investment options, granted all are some investment-version of the market, but it's the best game around for the working man. I didn't do too much shifting around of my 401K investment options while I was working. My basic tenant was that the world wasn't coming to an end in my lifetime, and over time the market would recover, which it has.

I started investing in 1970, listening to fools and shysters, and running scared on a daily basis. I didn't get any good at investing until about 1988.

I've been all-in for about four years. I'm keeping very little in money markets or bank checking accounts. I don't see the point. My mattress pays about the same interest on my money.

The hard call we've all alluded to, when to bail. With the Fed supporting the economy, now is NOT that time.

I will be doing a little asset shifting at the end of the month, closing on a house. The mortgage rate is 2.625%, fixed over 15 years. Housing is starting to recover. I don't suspect mortgage rates will get any lower.

I spend two to three hours a day watching. Nothing I have stays unattended for long.

"Historically high valuations" do make me nervous, but I try to keep both fear and euphoria in check. Emotions lead to bad decisions.

I don't consider myself a gambler. I stopped going to tracks and casinos long ago. If I buy a $2 Powerball ticket, I've splurged.

You know, the dice shown at the heading of this board is so appropriate for this thread, isn't it. Anyway...

quote:

I'd like to know who's buying.

Well, me for one. And others obviously. It's mostly those who want to get what's still on the table before the next big correction. And we're getting closer each day to where we need one.

Speaking of which, there's something very simple here to understand. There MUST be pullbacks. One reason is earnings related. Another is the risk increases the higher it goes until the market "falls" of "its own weight".

Still another is, the declines are an essential part of the money making process and ergo, have no choice but to occur. Now, what on earth does that mean. Well, at a point the market needs to drop so you can take your profits, then BUY THEM BACK later at lower prices and then repeat the process by following them back up again. It's always been that way.

That's been for decades my plan for long term trading (LT in my terminology). It's a proactive approach, which differs tremendously from simply buy and hold with waiting out the declines.

The other method I've dabbled with for many decades is short term swing trading (STST). It can be made to work, but it takes just the right stock with a range that's become predictable. But you do have to be careful not to go to the old well once too often. In its simplest form, it's just price chart trading.

Then you have day trading (DT). It's of a more recent vintage and by and large I've found it to be almost totally useless and counterproductive as a strategy. The time you waste on it would be put to better use in STST or LT. Or putting your covered call strategies to work, of which there are three main ones.

Fact is, regarding DT you could do about as well betting on the ponies - the only form of gambling I've ever attended where with study and experience you've actually got a shot at coming out ahead. But I guess we won't delve into that here.

Anyway, with the market I like to think of it in terms of two competing psychological forces at work, euphoria (greed) vs. despair (fear of loss). And my personal informal rule of thumb is for LT, sell on euphoria and buy on despair. Takes some firm discipline to carry it out, but over time it seems to pay.

Oh, Kensco said the high valuations "do make me nervous". Of course. They're supposed to. It's a game of "chicken" and who will flinch first as the risk gets higher and higher. You KNOW at some point it's coming. The fun part is knowing WHEN to bail out (for the time being)...

I think too many people get hung-up on conspiracy theories, and ghost stories about stock manipulation, and scare themselves out of investing. My dad made the mistake of get-rich-quick scams, uranium mines, raising chinchillas, and penny stocks. When he got burned as a young man, he never invested again.

If you want to talk about conflict of interest, take horse racing mentioned by Shack. Being a young engineer, I thought I could pour over the Daily Racing Form and "study" my way to success. We frequented Ruidoso and Sunland Park in New Mexico. While I studied forms and tips, a friend that worked for the same company went on the back-side and made friends.

First, the tracks take about 20% of every dollar you bet, so you are betting $1.00 to win $.80. I prefer the stock market.

Second, in a ten-horse field at least three or four, sometimes the favorite, weren't trying to win, or even be in the money. They were building the odds for a run at the State Fair, or some larger Stakes race later in the year where they could make some real money. That was an eye-opener for me. I prefer the stock market.

In Venezuela, there were only about five tracks in the entire country. Four had racing only one day a week, and the other one, La Rinconada, in Caracas, raced two days a week. The facilities were mainly there to launder money; Clombian drug money according to the locals. When "the man with the suitcase" was at the track, the odds on the favorite would go from 5-to-2, or 3-to-1, to "1-to-9" as the gates opened, or shortly thereafter. This would happen race after race. You didn't want to bet on the favorite because there was no money to be made. I prefer the stock market.

Day Trading used to be big with people I knew back in the 90s. I never knew anyone that came out of that ahead of the game. I do know some that ended up as suicides, divorced, broke, home foreclosures, etc.

If you have a long time horizon, I believe Buy-n-Hold is the best bet. Market Timing is tough. I've done it really well only once. I made a ton of money, but it is virtually impossible to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, so I don't try.

I also don't have any regrets really no matter how the trade went. My first stock purchase was stock in the first company I worked for, in 1972. I worried every day. It was range-bound between $28 and $40. I finally couldn't stand it any more and when it hit $40 for about the 10th time, I sold. It went over $100 about three months later.

I bought 1000 shares of Apple at $7 about 15 years ago, and rode it to $200, then back down to $105. That's where I sold. I think it fell to around $85, and then started its march towards $660+. OUCH! I've never been tempted to buy it again. I try not to get married to a stock.

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:
First, the tracks take about 20% of every dollar you bet, so you are betting $1.00 to win $.80. I prefer the stock market.

Me too, but it's worth pointing out to the young'uns that the broker is going to get a percentage every time you buy or sell. My first trade in 1977 was a winner, but it was a small trade and just paid the commissions getting in and out. The long-term strategy minimizes that overhead.

He's also going to take a fee just for keeping your account, until you have enough money in it to pay for a house. Some of your dividends are going toward making his house payment. Stocks held in "street name" aren't yours; they belong to the broker's firm. What you own is an account denominated in stock, unless you pay a little extra get the shares registered in your own name.

You can't win if you don't play but it's better play informed. The broker who handles small accounts isn't as well-informed as the one who handles bigger ones, something else to keep in mind along with the fact that his job is sales and his bonuses depend on your purchases.

On another topic, assorted governments are catching on to the fact that if they all devalue at once, nobody looks exceptionally bad. In the meantime, the savings generation pays for the excesses of the slackers. Or maybe part of the savings generation is paying for the rest of their generation who didn't save so much.

Eventually we will get to the top of the limit cycle, then bond holders seeking safety are going to get the haircut when no one is willing pay face value for a 1% bond in a 4% environment. We've been there before...

quote:

Me too, but it's worth pointing out to the young'uns that the broker is going to get a percentage every time you buy or sell.

True, but not a significant consideration in today's environment if you use online brokerage UNLESS you are buying really tiny dollar amounts of stock. There are multiple brokers who will handle online orders for less than $10/sale.

The brokerage fees have really come down since I started investing in the 70s. I swear I used to pay about $75 for 100 shares. The Fidelity norm is $7.95 now. I haven't paid a brokerage fee in some years, but I realize that is abnormal.

I do all my trading online. I used to prefer a relationship with a broker, and used to call my broker and make trades from overseas. I used Charles Schwab back then (early 90s). When they switched and started taking my calls through a call center in God knows where, I closed my account and took my business elsewhere.

About them ponies - just to see if we're "on the same page". If I was to say I'd skip betting on the Kentucky Derby, what would you say the soundest reason would be?

Another question - if it's a race with a lot of local in state horses running, and I said I'd skip it, what again might be the best reason?

I think amongst all the numerous things to consider, I've found a couple to be, which track and at what point in the season. That determines who and what are going to be there.

Oh, two things it has in common with the market. To make real money I've found you have go large when convinced you've found something that works...and you have to hedge your bets.

Anyway, like others, I haven't used a full serve broker in years...not since the '80s...I once thought I was real clever in alerting one of them about some stock I liked, and what does he go and say?

"Don't you know, the sheep aren't supposed to shear the shepherd"...

The "main" races whether at that track, that season, that state, that country, etc., I consider to be on the up-and-up. I don't think owners and trainers are using the Kentucky Derby or Melbourne Cup to set-up for a bigger race; it IS the big race. In other words, I would bet the Derby.

The standard, small track, daily racing program; yeah, I wouldn't put my money up. Strange things happen. (To me, dog racing is a little less likely to have someone's thumb on the scale, but I got over the dogs in Juarez while I was in college. I just don't like gambling now unless it is a friendly poker night.)

Venezuela was interesting though. It came down to pure luck. My night to remember was when the money-man was there doing his wash, the favorite went off at the usual one-to-nine, and fell on the first turn. I'm holding a $.50 ticket for what they call their Superfecta Combinada. Mine are four of the long shots. They come across the line first, and the order isn't important, I'm covered.

Minutes later they flash-up the good news. The Superfecta pays 200,000+ Bolivares, a little over $1,000 at the time.

When I shove that ticket through the cashier window things start buzzing. I've got three cashiers "helping" me, and a crowd of about 20 people are pressed tight around me watching the count, which is coming out in Bolivares; $1.00 bill equivalents, more or less. While trying to stay with the count, I'm trying to figure how to get to my car without being killed at 11:00pm at night, with about 1,000 bills.

In the middle of all the hub-bub, the count seems to go amiss. I let him finish, then I start from scratch again, and come up about $50 short. The sheepish looking cashier asks about his "tip". We finally agree there is no tip.

The bills go in my boots, in my shirt, in my pants, until I have them all secured, although I look like the Pillsbury Dough Boy.

Next stop, the nearest guard with a weapon. I find a semi-official looking guy with an escopeta (shotgun), and he agrees for about $10 he'll walk me to my car. A few stragglers follow us, but we get to my Cherokee, I lock the doors, get up to top-speed ASAP, and take my first breath when I slip through the gate at my apartment in Maracaibo. It was fun only because I lived to tell about it.

I had a similar experience about six months later for a little less than $500.

The reason I don't bet that particular derby is, the horses in it are all too good. Any could win. And I can't make money in those circumstances.

And the reason for not betting with all/mostly local horses is, you're going to have a lot of horses that aren't any good. Meaning, once more, any could win.

Btw, the thing you mentioned about a track taking a portion of the money bet is of course true. How else could they run the jockey club and track? BUT, that doesn't mean you're no better off than, say, at a casino.

At the track there's no house advantage in terms of who wins. That's why parimutuel betting has the enormous advantage over casino gaming. At the track you're not betting against the house. And that is one of several things you have going for you.

I guess the exception might be in those races you were talking about in other countries. No telling what goes on in those places. But, that's not something I've ever done or would mess with. It's the same reason I wouldn't get involved with off-shore gaming of other kinds.

But, the horse tracks I've attended for forty years? No, I've no fear of not getting a "square deal" at those kind of places.

Anyway, be it stocks or the ponies there's something I've come to realize over the decades. You do of course want to make money, BUT, that's not the BIG thing at work. It's the love of WINNING...

And there are some real "sleper" (not obvious) stock bargains out there. Microsoft, for instance, has risen in price/value over 33% in the last year.

One of the small but sometimes crucial real difficulties with land investments is that it is not a prtable commodity. Precious metals aren't either if you are talking large amounts, but at least with even a single Kruegerrand, Gold Eagle, or even a Silver Dollsr, you can cut off a chun with a knife and use it for buying things in time of need. In trhat saense ifd is more vluable trhan diamonds or other precious jewels.

You can trade in & out of precious metals or commodities in your brokerage account with a click of your mouse using Exchange Traded Funds. GLD & SLV have had big drops, might offer good long term value, especially if you believe the inflation hypothesis.