Shack

Sounds like to me that you've died and gone to heaven.

My final act for 2013 was paying a ton of property taxes. Not as much fun as you're having.

Added to my position in Bank of America (BAC) yesterday. (BAC is up another 2% today.)

Watching Merck (MRK) today, but will need to see a significant move before I'll pull the trigger again.

Merck (MRK) is on a tear this morning. I added to my position earlier and it continues to run on news of a cancer fighting drug.

Bought additional shares of BAC, Bank of America earlier today. They reported a five-fold increase in earnings this morning and the stock is UP over 2% on the news, at $17.17.

I added to my DOW position this morning as it jumped over 5% on news a large hedge fund has taken a position in the stock. DOW pays a 3% annual dividend at its current level. The stock is knocking around $45-$46. It' probably a $55 stock at best.

The latest on DOW - http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...rigger-4-share-spike

You would no doubt get shares in both companies. Sometimes that works well. ABT did it. They split the whole thing in half. So, we now find ourselves owners of ABBV. Both have done better than I expected since the split up. Same thing with IR. We've now got some shares in ALLE because of it. Not many though. I may add a few more on the next dip to have an even number.

But when they parcel out part of the business, existing holders don't always automatically get a piece of the new outfit. You may have to buy it at a price they set or later on the open market. That's why I've passed on ZTS so far. I otherwise would have liked to have some.

Oh, I've been enjoying the nice run with XTXI after the DVN deal was announced. I was about to sell it just before that...glad I hung on. That's what you call "better to be lucky than good".

Looks like the bubble has burst.

You could see it coming a mile away. The volcano has been rumbling since year end. It was just way too far too fast all during 2013. That's not normal. And the results are always predictable. The thing falls of its own weight because a proper foundation in earnings hasn't been laid to support those prices.

Lots of panic selling going on.

I'm holding on to oldies, but have been selling ones acquired last year that had some profits.

Big question is how far will it drop before the short's move in to cover their positions?

quote:

Originally posted by Shack:
Looks like the bubble has burst.

You could see it coming a mile away. The volcano has been rumbling since year end. It was just way too far too fast all during 2013. That's not normal. And the results are always predictable. The thing falls of its own weight because a proper foundation in earnings hasn't been laid to support those prices.

Lots of panic selling going on.

I'm holding on to oldies, but have been selling ones acquired last year that had some profits.

Big question is how far will it drop before the short's move in to cover their positions?

Stocks up 20% with the economy up 1%, you have to question sustainability. That said, I avoid either panic selling or panic buying.

Investing in the market is a good play over time. Sure, there are downturns, but overall, absent a crash (which the Democrats seem to foster), the market ratchets upwards even in spite of Democratic Administrations. I'd stick with stuff that tracked the S&P or at least the Dow Jones for the most part, with only an occasional flier.

BoBo and company are trying to make you lose money to eliminate the "earnings differential". So we all should be cautious until we have a change in Administration.

I'm thinking a meaningful correction here, and DJIA of 13,500 which would roughly equal the start of last year.

And then we start fresh with a new run, provided the Dems and what's his name don't screw it up by frightening everyone.

The prospect of that individual getting elected was largely responsible for the recession in the first place.

The big thing will be this year's congressional elections. If we at least keep the House, then we should be OK until the thing Bill's married to gets her hooks into us. At that point, I'm seriously thinking of cashing out of stocks altogether. It'd probably be the prudent thing to do.

It is going to become necessary at some point given gov't mismanagement, ideology and demographics.

I agree with this advice, for now.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/t...ng-just-stand-there/

New highs?????? In what direction???/

Kensco, what Jack Bogle had to say is fine. But of course, what other choice?? Unless you sold out right away after the first of the year. Otherwise much of the damage is already done.

Speaking of which I'll let you in on a little something. About ten days into the month I added up everything and then did something I never do. I wrote down the number. Because it was an all time high and I SENSED it couldn't possibly go higher, so I wanted to be able to remember it.

But truth be, even if I wanted to pull the plug, on what?? Many of them I CAN'T sell. Too much cap gains tax. Or would never be able to get back in at the original type prices. Or, a biggie was, can't afford to lose the income stream. So there we are. Just have to sit and watch. And can't even go out to the farm as a distraction...it's pouring down.

Anyway, I was looking for ones that did go UP yesterday. Know what I found? TWTR and HLF. How do you like that? AMAT, SIRI and ZTS also. You could've made $100 on AMAT in one day, but it'd take only $16,000 to do it. ZTS up a penny. But nothing I'd try doing with that...

I sure don't advise anyone to sell anything. I'm standing pat. I'm still UP 1.5% for the year even with the DOW imitating a submarine instead of a rocket. I've had a few stocks increase their dividends this month. So far, so good, and like you I'm going to maintain that revenue stream, if not try to add to it. BPL has most of my attention at the moment. If it would show a little life I would add to my position.

I got a pretty good bump today on SE reported earnings. MRK is reporting earnings tomorrow. I hope to get a bump out of that.

Good luck to you.

On MRK I know generally about their situation but I don't really keep up with it. I'm only concerned with their check showing up. But, I have been running the yields of everything and could increase the cash flow elsewhere. Would hate to do it though...the cap gain wouldn't be fun. And on something new, no cushion of years of built up gains to fall back on when a storm hits.

By BPL I take it you mean Buckeye. Nice payout. I considered this one myself (we used to own the other Buckeye - the cellulose company).

Anyway, I'm personally limiting any more div payers to at least 6%. I'm also thinking of buying several preferreds. And what I've done is, adopt a one div payer per one growth company as far as future buys.

I sold a little bit a couple of weeks ago to make up for a slow month, but I'm not planning to sell any more. My mother asks if I'm not worried about the stock market crashing and I tell her no, it's going to crash two or three times before I'm ready to retire (and recover from each crash).

MRK got the bounce, but has been giving most of it back as the day goes on. Hit a high of $55.20 today. I went ahead and bought some more at $53.78. It will pay me 3.3% annually at this level. My cost average on MRK is $29.91, so I'm OK with the daily ups and downs.

SPH reports earnings in the morning. I don't expect much and hold it only as a pure speculative, high yield, investment.

Kensco, on these oil and gas limited partnerships, I understand some of the states the pipelines run through require state income tax filings, regardless that you don't live there. I think you know what I mean. Has that been a problem?

I was relieved to learn that Alaska doesn't require it, as I'm involved in something there.

Shack

I've not run into any problems. I'll have a look at the tax documents that are coming in and see if I can pick out anything. Your comment is news to me. I've never had to file an out of state return. I don't do my own taxes, so it wouldn't be a case of I simply overlooked it, or didn't know. My tax guys are pretty up to speed on oil & gas tax issues.

I've owned BPL and KMP for many years, and PBT and SJT in years past.

No sooner than I mentioned BPL yesterday, and they took a hit. I'm still watching MRK in case it moves again.

I'm still holding some Emerging Market mutual fund, FNMIX, although I sold some today to make the MRK purchase. If the Emerging Markets ever settle and start rebounding I'll probably slide back in. FNMIX has been good to me in general over many years, and pays a little over 5% annually. Luckily, I sold about 90% of my position over a year ago when it started to tank.

Kensco, in MLPs I've been considering APU and TNH, but their current key stats are not all that great. There are also some foreign LPs that pay really well, but who knows what the foreign taxes would be like, let alone getting a timely K-1. With foreign regular corporations typically you're looking at 15% of your dividends in taxes before you ever see it plus transaction fees.

For dividend payers I'm thinking now more towards preferred stock. The taxes are more streamlined than partnerships, royalty trusts and BDCs. You've also got some hi div common stocks. Like WIN for instance. At 12% it's tempting, but I see articles at Seeking Alpha to the effect they can't keep that up much longer (I've become a regular reader over there).

I've never bought any preferred stock, but been tempted many times. Their dividend is a little more secure. I like that aspect.

I've not received any of my MLP K-1 documents so far this year. BPL was very slow last year, arriving in late March. What I can see from 2012 is some evidence that my tax guys showed some break-out of taxes attributable to foreign income, but only as it relates to my last nine months overseas; nothing per se from the MLPs.

On another subject, Spectra Energy (SE) tripped my trigger this morning and I added another 100 shares at $37.27 to my holdings. SE pays a 3.7% dividend. My SE cost at this point averages $29.60 a share.

I go to Seeking Alpha occasionally, but they limit me to the first page of an article since I won't sign-up for anything. I use Yahoo Finance to check what's happening in general, then roll around to TheStreet, Market Watch, MSNMoney and CNNMoney to catch the latest news. Most data I get from Fidelity. I do some comparisons on Morningstar and MSNMoney, and hit Motley Fool occasionally. My problem with Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool is that their contributors are relative lightweights. They can grind the data, and sound knowledgeable technically, but I find too much data regurgitation a distraction, and red herring. It tends to suppress my investing instinct, which I think is pretty good, after years of being not so good (too much emotion entered into my decisions when I was in my late 20s, 30s and 40s).

It sounds like we're doing pretty much the same things, right down to looking at the same sources for advice.

I too have not signed up for Seeking Alpha's second pages. But they do say you can register free to see it. I just haven't wanted to complicate myself by doing it. Besides, I get the point with just the first page(s) or the title of the articles. And I agree about the authors. In fact I think either of us could probably write for them. But, they are better than nothing. You just have to read several sources and get the composite thinking.

The foreign LP I was thinking of is NMM, a Greek shipping company. Pays 10%. I was sorely tempted at 14, but didn't know then it was an LP. It's since gone way up. But, I've decided to let it go on its way. I don't want to get involved with Greek taxes, law and partnership considerations, let alone have to worry about K-1s from a foreign country.

Speaking of which, I haven't gotten any K-1s either and they all say don't expect them until on into March. SGU is one of mine. It's actually the only of my MLPs that's shown a nice gain. They say the K-1 will be mostly dividend income. Others though have thrown off return of capital distributions. You get that with the BDCs. Another I'll get a K-1 on is BPT. You get a bunch of worksheets to do on the royalties. It's involved, but the 13% distributions have been worth it, provided you got in at a reasonable price.

Anyway, do you usually wind up having to file for an extension because of the K-1s?

And something that has occurred to me is, since you're reporting MLP partnership profits using a Sch E, does that result in having to do a Sch SE, for self employment taxes? You know, generally "real partners" in a regular partnership have to do that. It wouldn't seem to make much sense with a publicly traded limited partnership, but the thought has occurred.

I think I know the answer, but was just curious if they try to make a jump to it being like self employment.

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:
I've never bought any preferred stock, but been tempted many times. Their dividend is a little more secure. I like that aspect.

I've not received any of my MLP K-1 documents so far this year. BPL was very slow last year, arriving in late March. What I can see from 2012 is some evidence that my tax guys showed some break-out of taxes attributable to foreign income, but only as it relates to my last nine months overseas; nothing per se from the MLPs.

On another subject, Spectra Energy (SE) tripped my trigger this morning and I added another 100 shares at $37.27 to my holdings. SE pays a 3.7% dividend. My SE cost at this point averages $29.60 a share.

I go to Seeking Alpha occasionally, but they limit me to the first page of an article since I won't sign-up for anything. I use Yahoo Finance to check what's happening in general, then roll around to TheStreet, Market Watch, MSNMoney and CNNMoney to catch the latest news. Most data I get from Fidelity. I do some comparisons on Morningstar and MSNMoney, and hit Motley Fool occasionally. My problem with Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool is that their contributors are relative lightweights. They can grind the data, and sound knowledgeable technically, but I find too much data regurgitation a distraction, and red herring. It tends to suppress my investing instinct, which I think is pretty good, after years of being not so good (too much emotion entered into my decisions when I was in my late 20s, 30s and 40s).

Free advice for what it is worth

Check out Value Investor Club - this is a high quality idea web site with very selective membership - somehow they have let me on it for nearly a decade.

As a non member you can get ideas 45 days delayed.

Mike

Beretta, VIC looks like an interesting site. I'm trying to coon-down the number of reference sites I use.

I've been a subscriber to Bloomberg BusinessWeek for about ten years, but just cancelled my subscription. They had interesting stories, but nothing that would really help me be a better investor.

Right now I'm fascinated by all the advertised "trading platforms" that are out there. They have nothing that would make me a better investor. They provide all kinds of data and wonderful charts that would only serve to confuse, distract, obscure, and simply complicate a process that is fairly simple. Find good value, and stay with them.

I noticed again today, after the close, that Merck (MRK) tripped my trigger. My strategy tells me to buy 100 shares at the open tomorrow. I may have to pass.

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:
Beretta, VIC looks like an interesting site. I'm trying to coon-down the number of reference sites I use.

I've been a subscriber to Bloomberg BusinessWeek for about ten years, but just cancelled my subscription. They had interesting stories, but nothing that would really help me be a better investor.

Right now I'm fascinated by all the advertised "trading platforms" that are out there. They have nothing that would make me a better investor. They provide all kinds of data and wonderful charts that would only serve to confuse, distract, obscure, and simply complicate a process that is fairly simple. Find good value, and stay with them.

I noticed again today, after the close, that Merck (MRK) tripped my trigger. My strategy tells me to buy 100 shares at the open tomorrow. I may have to pass.

VIC is good as a idea site for stocks - most of the people on it are hedge funds guys. As a retail investor I would stay away from short ideas. also for retail investor I think the 45 day delay is good - you get to see how idea matured overtime and then decide if you still want in.

Seeking alpha and motley fool are written by light weights. there may be some good stuff there but it is lost in a sea of fluff.

I think all trading platforms are crap for retail. All a scam to get subscription payment. As retail you cannot out trade the quants - they are in a different league.

Good luck investing - its a funny thing to do but it has costs.

Mike

The WSJ has been my source for general news and stock background information since the 1960s. I've always found it very useful. It just takes a long time to read really thoroughly, but I have it delivered to the house and get up early and have it scanned for anything useful before the markets open. The next thing I do is check to see what the pre-opening futures are doing. Not all, but most of the time, that says whether it's going to be an up or down day. Then I run the target prices one last time on all watch lists and ask, what is there on there I would really LIKE to own apart from all other considerations that I don't already have.

Anyway, something I find interesting, no, amusing, is when you research a stock on your trading/brokerage website and they show the analysts' ratings, and you find two analysts, both with 98% "accuracy ratings" and one says "buy" and the other says "sell".

That just underscores what we long since knew. You can't depend on anyone else. You have to get it done yourself.

Well, anyhow, today's Saturday. A day off. I think I'll go out and see what the farm looks like with snow on it. And take some lumber to start work on my second ground blind. The first one really worked out. Got a deer from it and could have had more for the asking. And I'll check to see where the turkeys have been and maybe sit in the squirrel woods this afternoon...

Shack, interesting your comment about analysts. I also track the analyst ratings from TheStreet and Fidelity, just for yucks. I check them about every two months now. Here are a few of the polar opposites for stocks I own. Fidelity's most accurate analyst rates them a SELL; TheStreet calls them a BUY.

DuPont DD
Halliburton HAL
Kinder Morgan Partners KMP
Seadrill SDRL
Spectra Energy SE
AT&T T
Verizon VZ

Of 23 stocks, Fidelity says eight are BUYS, eight are HOLDS, and 7 are SELLS. TheStreet calls 22 BUYS and one HOLD. I used to track analysts recommendations from other sites, but the results were meaningless.

I feel more comfortable if all agree, but that doesn't drive my decisions.

I'm still thinking about that MRK decision for Monday. If I wasn't retired, I wouldn't hesitate. It is a little different ballgame now.

So you bit on T. I've had my finger poised over the buy button for some time on it. Still may jump on board. But, if I did it, it'd be because of the dividend. It's become a div payer now, you know, instead of a growth stock. That's what happens once prospects become questionable, they slide over into the dividend paying category. Which is OK with me, but, there's no denying that landlines are going the way of desktops (sure glad I didn't buy Dell - and it's what prompted me to do some leap calls on HPQ) and non-digital cameras and so forth. And if we dump the landline someday, a big reason will be the constant nuisance telemarketer scam calls the Do Not Call list can't stop. You don't get those on cells. Heck, I'll bet the carriers don't even know that's high on the list for running off subscribers.

And, T you know just sold off those landlines to FTR, which says they know there's a problem long term with landlines.

So, now I'm having second thoughts about catching that particular train. But I do think they're making the right moves to attract more wireless customers. In a world of really bad TV ads, they have a very good one out right now.

Anyway, on those analysts, I really think many just plain don't know what they're doing and are flat guessing. And I really suspect many are just copying each others' work. After all, with the thousands of companies out there, how could there be such a thing as truly good research on them all.

We have MRK, but I'm not looking for more. Got into it by way of the SP merger.

Sometimes I cut the analysts a little slack and say that maybe their time line is the next 30 days. My timeline is the next ten years or so.

I started buying T in 2010. I'm in a fairly decent place with it. My average cost is $26.13 and it's selling for $32.30. I think it could go up another $10 in the next five years. Meanwhile the dividend is safe I think. I'm heavier into Verizon.

I pulled the trigger again on MRK yesterday and BPL today. 2014 is shaping up to be another very good year unless the bottom falls out for some reason.

Some good advice.

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com...tter/?source=cnn_bin

You might want to put your eye on DD, DOW, and MRK. I've been accumulating more of each this month. I've also added to my position in BPL and SE recently.

I've sold FNMIX recently. I don't think "Emerging Markets" are going to rally hard anytime soon.

The "talking heads" are saying the market is flat so far this year. I'm not seeing that. More like +19% so far. The people calling for a 5 to 10% correction have completely missed the rally.

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:

The "talking heads" are saying the market is flat so far this year. I'm not seeing that. More like +19% so far. The people calling for a 5 to 10% correction have completely missed the rally.

Who's buying volume?

The comment was relative to my holdings.

I only own eight of the 30 stocks that make up the DOW average; none of the 19 most expensive, so I don't "track" the DOW very well.

Only nine of the 30 DOW stocks are positive for 2014. That index gives the impression that this is not a good time to invest. I disagree.

What I worry about is the emotional / psychological impact of the troubles in the Ukraine, a Chernobyl-type event, a 9/11, Iran doing something crazy, WWIII, etc. You have some major world event, and the impact staggers the markets; sometimes when it shouldn't. Fear of the unknown I guess. I can handle the normal U. S. economy fluctuations, politics, etc.; just keep the big stuff out of the headlines for the next twenty years.

There are a lot of paper claims floating around, derivatives printed up on somebody's Lexmark with nothing much for collateral. Better to have assets, which is a good reason to have stocks registered in your own name, not street name (which means the broker owns the stock and you only own one of his accounts).

I used to get all the stock certificates when I bought stocks, and kept them in a safe deposit box at the bank, for the reasons you mentioned. I stopped doing that in the 80s.

When I retired I had accounts at three brokerages; one with active accounts, one with the 401Ks, one with the stock options. I've simplified down to two, but there is no way I can run my business not trusting someone. I would say pick one of the big three or four companies and let them hold your stocks. You've got to have a partner / trading vehicle somewhere.

I've had good luck with Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and Merrill Lynch. I used to like Charles Schwab, but when people start taking me for granted, I dump them. I don't dabble with the new kids on the block; E*Trade, Scottrade, or Ameritrade; but they are probably OK. I don't work with anyone that isn't at least half as old as I am.

I do keep an account at a broker, but don't keep everything in it...which annoys them a little and costs me a little extra on commissions but I don't worry about them going belly-up.

Recall that a couple of them had to be bought out in 2008, or they would have gone under. SIPC never had enough assets to cover a real market meltdown, and still doesn't.

Sold FSESX and HAL today. Bought DD and DOW. Basically moving out of lower dividend payers to higher dividend payers (with momentum).

Others are doing the same thing. As valuations of common stocks start to get "out there" we are moving towards higher paying dividend situations as the alternative.

For instance, have you seen what this year has been going on with the prices of the better known preferreds?

They have reached and are starting to exceed (by too much) their call prices. And that in my opinion is NOT territory you want to be in. But folks are doing it.

Anyway, I personally don't want anything new at this point that doesn't pay at least 6%. With 8% being more like it. And 12% if you don't mind living dangerously.

And also, you've got to factor in the coming interest rate hikes. How do you do anything without keeping that in mind.

Word is, they expect 2.25% by 2016. So why get involved in anything less than that??

And one of the Fed Reserve Bank heads spoke in favor of 4%. Now that would have folks running back to CDs and would seriously gut some lesser paying common stocks.

Bought more KMI on-the-dip since my last post. I'm OK with its recent slide. I'm up 19% at its current level, and it's paying 5.3% today.

The best news today was the BAC dividend jumping from $.01 to $.05, and a nice buy-back planned. I will probably continue to accumulate Bank of America. Their dividend will continue to rise, and the buy-back will help back-stop their stock price.

It is hard for me to factor-in what "may" happen, so I generally don't fret too much about interest rates, oil prices, etc. There is just too much conflicting "data" out there. I just try to stay aware of movement.

I'm not looking for anything new at this point. Retirement ended that game. I will continue to add to current holdings in small bites if I see numbers I like.

I'm shifting some of my holdings to dividend reinvestment again. I said I wouldn't do that after I retired, but on a selective basis, I'm moving some back into that strategy. I'll take another look at that come year end.

The big unknown for me at this point is how deep the IRS is going to reach into my pocket for 2013. That question will get answered in the next two weeks.