I've never owned Microsoft, but had mixed results with tech stocks in recent years; AMAT and ORCL.

I'm still waiting for INTC to launch; up just 25% over two years. It finally started moving the needle this month. SNDK, on the other hand, has done fine; up 92% in the same period.

CSCO has been flying under the radar for a while, but I'm up about 77% in Cisco over the past two years so I'll quit bitching about that one.

quote:

Originally posted by Shack:
The reason I don't bet that particular derby is, the horses in it are all too good. Any could win. And I can't make money in those circumstances.

And the reason for not betting with all/mostly local horses is, you're going to have a lot of horses that aren't any good. Meaning, once more, any could win.

Btw, the thing you mentioned about a track taking a portion of the money bet is of course true. How else could they run the jockey club and track? BUT, that doesn't mean you're no better off than, say, at a casino.

At the track there's no house advantage in terms of who wins. That's why parimutuel betting has the enormous advantage over casino gaming. At the track you're not betting against the house. And that is one of several things you have going for you.

I guess the exception might be in those races you were talking about in other countries. No telling what goes on in those places. But, that's not something I've ever done or would mess with. It's the same reason I wouldn't get involved with off-shore gaming of other kinds.

But, the horse tracks I've attended for forty years? No, I've no fear of not getting a "square deal" at those kind of places.

Anyway, be it stocks or the ponies there's something I've come to realize over the decades. You do of course want to make money, BUT, that's not the BIG thing at work. It's the love of WINNING...

The Old Horse Player

by Damon Runyon

For forty years he's followed the track
And played them hosses to Helenback,
And they ain't a thing he shouldn't know, that bloke.
So I sez to him, "I want advice
On beating this dodge at a decent price,
And what haveyou got to tell me, old soak?"
"Well, son, " he sez, "I've bet and won,
And I've bet and lost, and when all is done
I'm sure of one thing--and only one--
All hawss players must die broke!"

Or, put still differently by Tom T. Hall -

It's all about "faster horses, younger women, older whisky and more money"...

..and on them stocks, boys, there's nary a stone left hereabouts what ain't already been turned over.

quote:

Originally posted by fla3006:
You can trade in & out of precious metals or commodities in your brokerage account with a click of your mouse using Exchange Traded Funds. GLD & SLV have had big drops, might offer good long term value, especially if you believe the inflation hypothesis.

ETF's are fine if the ''ease of closing a position electronically'' doesn't tempt you to buy in early or to sell early. I advise to take 6 months to a year to become a student of the G&S market before you invest. Sitting on cash costs you nothing while you learn. You wouldn't drive 90 mph in driving school. Don't jump into something until you have a feel for it.

quote:

Originally posted by Shack:
Or, put still differently by Tom T. Hall -

It's all about "faster horses, younger women, older whisky and more money"...

..and on them stocks, boys, there's nary a stone left hereabouts what ain't already been turned over.

I look at this as a year to ride the bubbles and pay off debt. Keep an eye on the band, the music will stop sometime.

quote:

custombolt:

quote:

fla3006:
You can trade in & out of precious metals or commodities in your brokerage account with a click of your mouse using Exchange Traded Funds. GLD & SLV have had big drops, might offer good long term value, especially if you believe the inflation hypothesis.

I advise to take 6 months to a year to become a student of the G&S market before you invest. Sitting on cash costs you nothing while you learn. You wouldn't drive 90 mph in driving school. Don't jump into something until you have a feel for it.

36 years this month, best & worst of markets.
Losing one's ass a few times is the best way to learn.
Don't anyone tell me they never lose.

No one should lose this year. Right now a monkey with a dart in a dark room with the Wall Street Journal taped to the wall could come out a winner.

I am a little more antsy than Custombolt. I think sitting on cash right now does cost you money.

If G&S you think is your thing, I would invest your cash, to the extent you can afford, and then do just as Custombolt described, take the time to study gold & silver.

I think the onus is on the older generation. My dad died before I got out of school so he wasn't able to share his good or bad investing experiences, or discuss his strategies, if he had any. I've been encouraging my kids since they got out on their own to feed money into investing to the extent they can. That is the nut of it. Everyone has important priorities, and there are times when investing can't be very high on the list.

I've got one son that knows he should invest but always seems to have a cruise, a George Strait concert, or a trip to Vegas that takes priority. Another son lives overseas. He's comfortable letting me manage his portfolio for him, for now. One daughter can't afford to invest with a young family, on a tight budget. The other daughter is really tuned-in to investing, has a great portfolio, is years ahead of where I was at her age, and uses me only as a sounding-board to bounce ideas off of. She doesn't always like my ideas, which is fine with me.

quote:

Kensco: No one should lose this year. Right now a monkey with a dart in a dark room with the Wall Street Journal taped to the wall could come out a winner.

If you bought gold or silver this year you're not. Maybe they're a buy now?
My mainstream ETFs are all up nicely though, got a 15% stop loss in place this time, can't afford another round trip at 65.

I don't have a good gut-feel for where gold or silver is going. I bought Krugerrands years ago and did well, but gave them up in a divorce.

I'm getting lined-up for a house down-payment next week, so I sold C, SNDK and FNMIX today. I would have liked to have held onto Citicorp and Sandisk, but didn't have an option. I bought a little KMI yesterday.

I hear you about the roundtrip. You're just a pup. I'm 66. I've not tried ETFs, but like the concept.

I bought SLV a few days ago, underwater slightly. Bottom fishing usually isn't my style although it is a good strategy if you buy right and hold long enough. I generally prefer momentum, lack patience, but I'm giving it a try, with the 15% stop loss in place like everything else I own now.
(I'm right behind you, 66 in 2 months)

I totally agree about "momentum" being a good reason to pull the trigger. I try to find a good stock. If I truly believe in it, I don't care whether it goes up or down, in the short term. I'll continue to feed money into it. (That strategy drives my brother crazy.) At some point I've wedged-out a window. With KMI my window is now $31.27 to $41.58. The stock is at $41.09. If it hits either side of the window, I buy more. If it stays in the window I just take the 3.8% dividend and sit tight.

My one concession to retirement is that I don't reinvest my dividends any more. I'm trying to slowly draw money out of the market.

Seems like there are more people right now believing that silver is the metal to be in than gold. SLV may be the place to be.

KMI? It's on the list I follow, mainly because they own a local plant. But though tempted, I've passed so far. It appears to me to be a $32 stock that sells for $42. And there're a bunch of sell recommendations out on it earning it its overall bearish rating. And the PE is red lining bad. The only thing I'm liking about it now is the dividend.

I'm now waiting for the market is work out of its month of May craziness. That won't keep up. And when it breaks, it'll be in "descending order" with the ones purchased most recently being the first to go. Ones bought a few months ago will hang on longer.

In the meantime it's been a struggle recently to find reliable strategies.

There's bottom fishing, but it's so dangerous. There ARE reasons they're that low...and look at how long you'd have to wait them out.

I've been in KMI for "ten" years via the El Paso acquisition. I've been in KMP for eight. KMP has been really good to me. I started buying it in 2005, and it kept rising. At around $43 a share it took a big leap, and I thought, no way it is going higher, and stopped buying. It hit $92.40, and rocks around $89 now. I was reinvesting dividends until late last year, so I'm a happy camper.

I like the Rich Kinder story too. He was vying for the Enron CEO job and Kenneth Lay told him he wasn't cut-out to be a CEO, and told Rich he wouldn't ever get the job. Rich told him, in that case he would like to cash-in and leave the company. He asked if Lay would exchange Rich' zillions of shares for Enron's pipelines since Enron thought they stunk. Lay agreed and Kinder-Morgan was born.

If you haven't read "The Smartest Guys In The Room" by Bethany McLean and Peter Elkind, get it. It is a great inside account of the downfall of Enron and the key company leaders. Rich Kinder is one of about three Enron executives that came out unscathed; and I think deservedly so. Others got away, but deserved to have been nailed. Others got nailed. I had some Enron connections while I was in India, so maybe the story is more meaningful to me, but it will give you a good feel for how Kinder-Morgan and EOG Resources came about.

That's a fascinating story. Your KMI has a plant in the Mid-South, which is how I became aware of them. By coincidence they also own EPB, which happens to be another that I'm rather interested in.

Anyway, buying those stocks on div reinvest though is something I avoid. They can mess up your tax returns by complicating the cost basis and you don't have the same control over the purchase price.

Btw, do you guys fool with options too?

I can't comment on Options because I've never traded them, or commodities for that matter. I don't go near anything I don't understand, and unfortunately I'm a slow learner. Seems like it takes me about 15 years to grasp anything new.

By the way, for fla3006, Cramer on Mad Money (CNBC) today received a call asking for a recommendation on SLV. Cramer's comment was to point the caller towards gold coins. He wasn't anti-SLV, just seemed to think gold was the better investment at the moment.

He also didn't like my Corning (GLW) at this level. I feel the same. It's got to break about $8.00 one way or the other before I'll buy more. It's at $15.80 today. I'm up $3.50 a share at the moment and came closed to selling this month, but it finally made a little move.

I like to hear comments regarding stocks I'm holding, good or bad, but those comments don't drive any action on my part.

With the options (and for heaven's sakes don't go out and do this) what you COULD do with, say, the GLW in the event you don't WANT to keep it long term anyway and are just looking to pick up a little cash now, is sell a covered call. That's selling the right to anyone to buy your GLW at a set price up to a set time in the future. You pick the price and time.

It's that simple. And you collect a premium, which is kind of like a commission on the sale and if the price doesn't reach that point, the option expires and you keep your GLW. But it can get "called away" if someone wants to pay you for it based on that higher price. In that case you'd lose your stock but you'd make that price plus get to keep your premium you've already been paid.

Alles klar?

Anyway, GLW is one of mine too. And like you I have a buy price. The sell price is simply "sell at any profit". So I wouldn't use it for option trading because I don't want to be locked into it until an option contract expires.

quote:

Kensco: I like the Rich Kinder story too. He was vying for the Enron CEO job and Kenneth Lay told him he wasn't cut-out to be a CEO, and told Rich he wouldn't ever get the job. Rich told him, in that case he would like to cash-in and leave the company. He asked if Lay would exchange Rich' zillions of shares for Enron's pipelines since Enron thought they stunk. Lay agreed and Kinder-Morgan was born.... Rich Kinder is one of about three Enron executives that came out unscathed; and I think deservedly so. Others got away, but deserved to have been nailed. Others got nailed. I had some Enron connections while I was in India, so maybe the story is more meaningful to me, but it will give you a good feel for how Kinder-Morgan and EOG Resources came about.

Kinder got the last laugh, figuratively & literally. He now lives in Ken Lay's penthouse atop the Huntingdon high-rise on Kirby @ San Felipe in Houston, across the parking lot from where I officed for 10 years. Personally, EOG Resources has been a huge winner.

I dealt with EOG in Trinidad. It was cute at the beginning. They had a standard opening line for anyone wanting to work in the project. "We are EOG Resources. We're not Enron Oil & Gas. We have noting to do with them any more."

EOG started the same way as Kinder-Morgan. A guy like Rich talked Lay and Skilling out of the EOG assets, because Lay & Skilling were convinced they were of little value in Enron's future. Like Forest Gump said, "stupid is, what stupid does".

Is it just me, or is it peaking and starting to drop. It's stopped its 100 pt a day thing recently and is getting choppy.

Are you experts out there seeing it that way??

quote:

Originally posted by Shack:
Is it just me, or is it peaking and starting to drop. It's stopped its 100 pt a day thing recently and is getting choppy.

Are you experts out there seeing it that way??

There was an interesting paper a few years ago titled: "When is noise, not noise?".

I am not an expert, but it seems like it's the right time of year for the big fellas to head for the Hamptons.

I think everyone feels a pullback is overdue. Most people are also saying that the market will be higher 90 to 120 days from now than it is today. I hope they are right, because I'm not leaving.

I buy on momentum. No momentum; I sit and watch.

The only current position I'm not confident about is FNMIX. I've trimmed half my position in the past week due to it's price dropping, and me needing to put together a down-payment on a house.

If someone asked right now whether I would prefer to invest in the stock market or residential real estate, I choose housing.

Housing on the move in the Dallas area. http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews....up-6-8-percent.html/

quote:

Originally posted by Kensco:
I think everyone feels a pullback is overdue. Most people are also saying that the market will be higher 90 to 120 days from now than it is today. I hope they are right, because I'm not leaving.

I buy on momentum. No momentum; I sit and watch.

The only current position I'm not confident about is FNMIX. I've trimmed half my position in the past week due to it's price dropping, and me needing to put together a down-payment on a house.

If someone asked right now whether I would prefer to invest in the stock market or residential real estate, I choose housing.

June swoon? There seems to be an element of volatility lately. As for housing, you must pick and choose, much of the rise in prices is said to be due to hedge funds placing muppet money.

Haven't done too much in the market the past week. Picked-up a little more MRK.

Closed on another house last week. 2.625% fixed for 15 years.

Home rental revenues are up about 10% in towns north of Dallas along 75 (North Central Expressway). Management companies I work with say they are asking for an additional 10% for properties going on the market this month. No guarantee that they'll get it, but they are seeing a lot of people looking at the moment.

My property tax valuations increased about 10% for 2013. I guess that falls under the heading of Good News / Bad News.

Housing demand & prices are strong across TX, due to the shale boom, continued migration of technology jobs & retirees from high tax/regulation states. Quick sales with multiple offers are the norm on desirable properties. Prices are up about 10-20% YTY in our town.

I was running a drilling company in Odessa the last oil boom; in 80-81. When it ended, the place was gutted. This one will end badly too, but they are fun while they last, big money to be made. It's a shame few people save any of it.

Times were wild. I was offered a ranch if I would move a potential customer to the head of the line for my 30,000' rig. I was offered a cabin in Ruidoso, New Mexico just to push my business one vendor's way. If you weren't brought-up right you could get in a world of trouble during an oil boom; many did.

An interesting map regarding homeowners. http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews....-higher-prices.html/

Meanwhile, Social Security continues to run a little deficit, which will become a bigger one over time. The hitch in all this is, its assets are all tied up in government bonds which are not money at all, but claims on future tax revenue. The only way they can be monetized is by selling the bonds or holding them until maturity. One way a someone has to have the money and inclination to buy it, the other way the government has to take the money from someone to redeem it. Either way, it comes right out of somebody's disposable income.

Now what?

So how are we doing here since June? I thought then it was headed south. But no, it's kept right on keeping on. Until this week. Now not so sure anymore...

Any talk of the Fed easing on buying sends it down.

Honestly I don't see the notion that keeping the economy going depends entirely on the Fed buying residential mortgage bonds.

I will toss in here that the only thing which keeps any economy going is producing goods and services which meet people's needs, at prices they can actually pay for out of their own hard assets (not borrow to acquire).

Meeting "wants" boosts the economy in "good" times, but does not support it in "bad" times. Our government (and maybe most of our citizens) don't seem to realize that these days.

Using that bottom line criterion, it is not difficult to make money in the stock market...buying stocks of companies which actually produce things people NEED, and which faithfully and regularly pay appropriate dividends to their owners, has always worked for me in both good times and bad.

I've been a seller of Emerging Markets and a buyer of MRK, SE, BPL, BAC, DD, SDRL, and GE.

I still think we could see DOW 16,000 by year end. I would prefer not to see a change in Fed leadership. I like the status quo, and current trends.

The trend seems to be reversing and emerging markets are being eclipsed by the developed countries.

Lately I've been interested in getting more cash flow generated and have been screening for relatively safe good dividend payers. Problem is, you find one that looks good on the surface, and there's usually something wrong or even drastically wrong with it. It's as if real high dividends is almost a sign of a troubled company. I guess some outfits are doing the obvious with that...

I agree. Cash flow is my driver also. When I was still working I reinvested all dividends. After retirement last year I switched to taking all dividends in cash.

I own SDRL, BPL, KMP and SPH which are my high dividend stocks, and have been nervous about them, but I've owned BPL (6.25%), KMP (5.28%), and SDRL (7.98%) for years now and been amply rewarded. I've been in SPH (7.60%) for a year or so. The jury is still out on that one. I originally bought it for the wrong reason. I had drilled some wells for them in West Texas in the late 70s. Buying a stock for sentimental reasons, isn't a good reason to buy.

Dividend reinvestment is something I now avoid. I like the flexibility of doing each deal myself even though reinvestment worked OK on some stocks over the decades. The thing is, you can't shop for lower prices like that, and it can really mess up your tax returns when you sell even when you can figure out where you put all those old records.

Speaking of which, we did reinvestments with TSN and it's done well, but in the investment account today the system won't let me fill in multiple dates acquired or just put "various", so I can't fill in the "cost basis". So it can't figure the gain and so forth automatically. But we'll just let it ride.

On the dividend payers, one current project is evaluating old low payers for possible "re-positioning" in better paying stocks.

Took a real bath when the Tech Bubble burst. Have pretty much been just holding my own since.Am not very knowledgable on the stock market so let my broker handle it for me. I think this is the position most of us find ourselves in. I have never been much of a gambler and am definitely not lucky by any standards.

I started by letting brokers tell me what to do. After about ten years of losing money I "fired" them all, never asked them again for an opinion, and now do everything on line. When I got rid of brokers I started making money.

The one broker I respected was with Schneider, Burnett & Hickman out of Hobbs, New Mexico. He was good, and had my interests at heart, but got mixed-up in politics, got caught trying to bribe a politician and went to prison.

Eppler, Guerin & Turner in Abilene simply had no ethics. Shearson and Dean Witter just churned my account. I gave Merrill Lynch $30,000 in 1982. They turned it into $5,000 by 1984. I gravitated to Charles Schwab and liked their group in Midland, Texas. They followed my instructions, and executed well. Schwab then "improved" their customer service by insisting I use toll free numbers to phone banks rather than call the Midland office direct from overseas. I closed my account. I've been with Fidelity for more than 25 years. I don't ask for their advice. I do everything online. They continue to try to make personal contact with me. I never respond.

When I go into a Fidelity office, the people are very nice, well educated, and half my age, meaning they don't have enough life experience, or seen enough ups and downs in the market since they got out of school to know much of anything.

We've got a great relationship. They show their appreciation for my loyalty by not charging me for transactions.

The latest gadget seems to be all the brokers coming up with "trading platforms" to dazzle the self-professed experts. Most of the bells and whistles, and massive amounts of data constitute nothing more than background noise. Eliminate that and you can start making money. Just find a few solid stocks, and be patient. Have a timeline of five to ten years, not five to ten minutes.

The greatest mystery to me still is, when to sell. Buying isn't a problem.

I got in late to the Tech Bubble and lost money, but the loss I will always remember was when the drilling boom ended in the early 80s. I watched entire communities get devastated in West Texas. A lot of very wealthy people, smarter than I lost everything. I lost my job and some money, but at 35 I had time to re-build. I don't have that ability now, so I keep my ear to the ground and watch what is happening daily in the markets.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...warns-112421641.html

The DOW may not hit 16,000 by year end, but I doubt this "expert" is going to be correct either. She sounds like she's predicted ten of the last two corrections. If you keep being wrong long enough, you'll eventually be right. My guess is that we may see another 5% pullback before moving higher again.

As you guys have probably noticed, many "pundits" are now predicting a collapse of stock prices within the next 3 to 6 months.

IMHO, this is just another cyclical Wall Street scam exercise in stealing money from investors.

It works like this...

1. Shout out the quick money to be made in the "booming" market, inducing small investors to put their savings in "this great opportunity". It also pulls in the largest corporate and other investors, who have computerized automatic "buy" systems. This enables the Wall Street barons to sell at a profit the shares they bought cheaply.

2. Start doing what they are doing now, creating a "bear" market ( a major downturn in prices) using whatever excuses they can find or imagine for the major decline to occur, and "warning" everyone of what is going to happen.

This does two things...it causes many, many people to try to sell their stocks to "save" as much of their investments as possible.

3. This selling DOES create a bear market, lowering prices. And when prices drop, the large corporate and other investors' computerized "stop loss" systems automatically dumps portions of their stock.

4. All together, this drives prices still lower and may even cause a recession, big or small.

5. When prices have dived, the Wall Street "biggies" then go into "buy" mode themselves...buying many shares themselves, cheap.
6. Now that they are flush with shares, the Wall Street gang once again start the cycle...telling every9one that the smart money is in buying NOW before prices go up, as they will make scads of money by doing so.


HOW DOES ONE BEAT THEIR SCAM?

Easy. Buy solid stocks then their prices are down...in other words, when everyone else is panic selling, you should be buying.

Then when the "bull market" (rising prices) cmes around, rather than buying more...you should set a target price at which you will sell....and then, DO IT!!

Never look back at how much you "might" have made if you had held your shares longer. The point is, you have already made your profit on YOUR cheaply acquired shares, so when the next "bear market comes around, you'll have plenty of cash on hand to buy more and make more money as the next cycle goes around.

(Of course, for this to work, you can't foolishly spend every dime you make in profit on status symbols each time. Making money in the stock market is a long-term process. Done well, by the time you're ready to get out of the game, you will have made a bundle which you can THEN cash out if you wish.


This is called Investing. Buying the "hot" stock of the moment, in the blind hope it's price will continue to go up is called Speculating, and almost never works for the bulk of folks in the long run.

What do you guys think of Nobel Drilling?