I loaded these two loads that I have been fine tuning to get to this point. This is the closest that I have been able to get with each of them so far. The problem is I always seem to have 1 flyer bullet that seperates itself from the group. Any idea what causes this? I am shooting with sandbags to stabalize the rear of the gun and a bipod on the front. I don't think it's from movement on my part.



pic #1. 55g Nosler - BR4 Primers - Benchmark 25g - OAL 2.300


pic #2. 52g Sierra - Winchester Primers - H335 25.4g - OAL 2.300

I have 2 other rounds that I have worked with that look exactly the same on paper as these do that I shot this morning.

quote:

Decent groups of 3 then 1 flyer each time (why?)

There are no such things as "flyers" unless you knew when you shot that the shooter "pulled" or caused it somehow.

That flyer is part of your group and statistically should be measured as such.

Every shooter should take classes in statistics and we'd all have a better understanding of these things.

Does your flyer (w/ all due respect to vapo..)

always seem to go to the right as per your pictures?

How fast are you shooting your groups?

That's why I shoot 4 shot groups, then omit the "flyer", and use the best three as my group.

quote:

Originally posted by kreyten:
Does your flyer (w/ all due respect to vapo..)

always seem to go to the right as per your pictures?

How fast are you shooting your groups?

no problem....it's why it's called a forum

quote:

Originally posted by Terry Blauwkamp:
That's why I shoot 4 shot groups, then omit the "flyer", and use the best three as my group.

LOL.....and this is how a lot of 1/2" groups are shot.....just kidding now!

quote:

Every shooter should take classes in statistics and we'd all have a better understanding of these things.

Ok....excuse the term flyer. I was not sure what to call it. Yes the last shot seems to go to the right. Could it be that I am shooting the 4 shots to quick?
Really, you took classes in statistics to learn about things like the question I just asked? I have 3 kids and a wife I consider myself lucky to get out to the range for a few hours most weekends. I think I will stick with just asking the nice people on this message board for assistance when I need it. Hopefully one day I will learn enough from them to pass it along. That's part of the reason I post pics of my targets with what load I used. Hopefully someone will see it and say jeezzzz I use the same supplies he uses but the combo he used today shot a decent tight group, maybee I will give that one a try and see what happens.

Foot Note: I don't just make up my own loads and try them out and call them safe. I have numerous books and websites that post accurate load data. This is where I get the info for the loads that I try. Also from some of the people here who have years and years of reloading experience.

When does the "flyer" occur? First shot, last shot, it matters. You could be shooting too fast & that last shot is opening the group as the bbl. heats. First shot, could be cold bbl. or oil left in the bbl.

I would guess 95% of the time it's on the last shot.

Digger0040

I have to disagree with Vapodog as there are really "flyers". There are also "called shots". Most confuse the two. One is caused by the shooter (called shot) and the other is caused by the rifle or the load.

I this case, since most are the 4th shot, it could be either. You didn't tell us what the rifle, scope, cartridge and load are. There are many many such that those 4 shot groups are very good indeed! However, if the rifle is truely capable of those 3 shot groups and all is mechanically well with the bedding and scope mounting. then you could have parallax in the scope and when you are looking at the group while aiming your head is not in the same positon and the eye is not lined up the same to the ocular lens. Many of us have "blown" a very nice group with the last shot because of the pressure and because we subconciously look at the group instead of the aiming point.

Give us a little more information on the rilfe.

Larry Gibson

Sorry....My rifle is a Savage 10 Preditor Hunter with free floating BBL barrel in .223, The scope is a Leupold VX III 6.5-20x40. The brass is once fired Black Hills.

Here is a pic of some factory ammo that I shot 2 weekends ago. 7 shots in the pic the 8th shot was at a bowling pin. 55g Hornady V-Max

Digger

Do you put out wind flags and know how to read them? 4 an 1 or 3 and 2 groups are common, even by benchrest shooters with the best rifles and ammo that money can buy. It's 99% shooter error.

An old friend who made barrels for a living (you'd recognize the name if i told you) would say to you, "The rifle can shoot but you can't."

Ray

Statistics is premised on randomness, and randomness is predicated on ignorance of cause. Vapo is correct in saying that unless you know that you pulled the shot, the shot is part of the pattern, up to the point that we rule out all other causes for the variance. If we can assign another special cause, then the errant shot is not random and can be differentiated from the pattern of random shots. I believe we are trying here to determine if there is a specific cause for any pattern that may be emerging. A heated barrel may be a valid cause, IF WE CHOOSE TO DETERMINE THAT BARREL HEATING IS EXTERNAL TO OUR SHOOTING PROCESS. At this point, we are concerned with definitions.

We may hypothesize that there is an assignable cause to our errant shots. If we discover an influence and remove that influence, and should the pulled shots be eliminated, we have anecdotal evidence that the influence was the cause and verifies our hypothesis, if future history substantiates our current experience. Properly conducted statistical experimentation can determine within confidence limits (Type I and Type II error) that the errant shots were influenced by our hypothesized cause.

A third method, a practical method named Statistical Process Control (SPC), can determine if the variation is internal or external to our process. Random variation is described by a bell-shaped curve, and statistical analysis is based on mathematical properties of that curve. One of the properties of the curve is that it's asymptotic, the curve extends infinitely, both positively and negatively. As a PRACTICAL matter, and this is the premise of SPC, three standard deviations (both ways, positive and negative) will effectively describe 99.4%, above and below average, of our population of events. All events whose deviation lies with the +/-3 S.D.'s are designated as random (although some may have been influenced, but not enough to be discernible by this analysis). Those that have greater deviation than is predicted by the +/-3 S.D.'s are determined to not be random and therefore are influenced by some special cause. It is then the job of the analyst to discover the nature and source of this cause.

This last, SPC, is a tool. It does not tell us how or where to reduce the variation indigenous to our process. And that is why we prep our brass in every way possible, blueprint rifle actions, buy precisely-made barrels, experiment with bullet ogives, look for powders that reduce velocity spreads, and control anything else discernible. We are improving our process, even though there are no external influences extant. We are reducing the ignorance that we call randomness in the pursuit of reducing process variation.

my guess is you have something touching the bbl when it gets hot it pushes to that side.
have you tried to shoot a 10 shot group and see if it keeps going?

quote:

Originally posted by Digger0040:
I loaded these two loads that I have been fine tuning to get to this point. This is the closest that I have been able to get with each of them so far. The problem is I always seem to have 1 flyer bullet that seperates itself from the group. Any idea what causes this? I am shooting with sandbags to stabalize the rear of the gun and a bipod on the front. I don't think it's from movement on my part.
.....
I have 2 other rounds that I have worked with that look exactly the same on paper as these do that I shot this morning.

Digger,

That rifle has potential! You just need to keep notes! And may need to experiment some to figure it out.

Which shot is it? Random, Always 1st, Always 2nd, 3rd, 4th

How much time between shots? (Best to keep it the same)

What happens when you keep going? i.e. 5th, 6th, 7th

How about checking the stock clearence after each shot?

Inspect fired cases - See if anything is different on the "flyer" case.

quote:

Decent groups of 3 then 1 flyer each time (why?)

That happens to me so often, that I have switched to shooting 3 shot groups with big game rifles.

Just shoot more groups and take the average.

I still shoot 5 shot groups with rodent guns; 17M2, 17HMR, .177 pellet, 19 Calhoon, 22LR, 22mag, .222, .223, 22-150, 6mmBR, 6mmBRX, 243, 257RAI, with Vmax bullets.

I shoot 3 shot groups with soft point bullets in 243, 257RAI, 6.5x55,...

1. Statistics is a valid way to better understand what is going on.

2. Since you are a human it is possible that you are varying how much pressure your face is putting on the stock contributing to fliers. This can happen when you really, really want the last shot to go into the group so you hold on extra tight.

3. To really test the rifle I would remove the bipod and use a bag type rest. I know of no benchrest shooter that competes with a bipod.

JMO : All of us know what that's worth .

So many of us shooters seem to forget the 5% rule and without Match components that % increases !.

Primer powder is variable as no tolerance is exact . I wonder if the barrel maker explained

why all shots don't go into the same hole , even if a mechanical rest in a windless tube is used !.

I don't expect all the shots to go in the same hole. I am brand new to reloading and I am sure everything I am doing in the reloading process is not perfect. EXAMPLE- I have a digital scale that I use to weigh the grains for each shell. In the book I want to try a load that is 25.7g of powder. My scale only reads either 25.6 or 25.8. I do not have an option for 25.7 I would guess that if I am trying to be exact with my grains I can not. I would have a high end of a 25.6 reading and a low end of a 25.6 reading before it moves to 25.8 (if that makes sense). I don't know if that would make that much of a difference in each shot but if you add a few things like that up im sure it would affect each shot.

it's been mentioned already but you need to call each shot and determine if it is indeed happening in the same sequence. If it is, it's either mechanical with something you are doing, or heat related. You can determine this by letting the barre cool off longer than normal for one or 2 strings to see if that changes it.

Another thing you can do is load several different charge weights of the same powder and see how much that affects group size. If the powder is accurate in that gun there won't be that much difference in the overall group size. Let's face it we all work up a load and end up with some .6 or .7 grain load and then we use it in different temperature and humidity environments that affect pressures more than a tenth of a grain ever would and don't understand why our perfect load isn't behaving the way it did when we worked it up.

Is this a target gun, varmint gun, or for some other purpose?

No it's a varmint gun but I use it a lot for target shooting. When I got it I did a bunch of research and wanted a gun that I could use to varmint hunt and do some target shooting. Once I put a nice scope on it and decided to give reloading a try I can't seem to stop going to the range to try and get the smallest group possible. My wife thinks I'm nuts, it's only been a few weeks with the reloading stuff and I have 2 going on 3 different types of powders, 3 types of bullets, 3 types of primers and a notebook full of notes, weather conditions and shooting results from each of my shots. I know one day soon I will be taking that gun out varmint hunting too.

Hi digger0040,

That is a nice shooting rifle.In my humble opinion you may be shooting just a little fast.Both loads would be acceptable to me a groundhog hunter.I`ve done my best shooting while loading at the bench with the LeeLoader while letting the barrel cool if that is any indication of time between shots.

It appears to me with a cool barrel that Savage is shooting nice with either of the loads.I agree with the posters who say it is heat related.I do like the 25gr load of Benchmark as pictured above.

You have done well with the LL.Try a cool or just warm to the touch barrel.You may get the results you are after without bumping the loads at all.

Best Regards,
Mick

Having your cell phone too close to the digital scales can affect its accuracy. The loads can change when the phone checks in with the service provider.
When you put your cell phone next to a radio you can hear the distortions every couple of minutes from the cell phone checking in with the service provider.

Since I am on vacation the rest of the week I think I will take mickberger's suggestion and bring some pre primed shells to the range and load some there. It's empty almost all day during the week I should have the place all to myself. Thanks also for the suggestion about the cell phone. I did not know that it would affect the accuracy. I actually keep my cell by me when I am loading I will be sure and move it away from now on.

You know Winchester 69, I got through your first paragraph and it made sense. I had to take a break before embarking on the second and that made sense, but I will surely have to continue tomorrow before I have any beers!
All's good!

Hey Digger,Try this for me and see what your group looks like,shoot a 10 shot group..All the guys in my old hunting club would shoot a 10 shot group to see what there rifle was actually doing,I usually shoot a 5 shot,but sometimes a 10shot will show you are actually shooting a little to the right,left,high,low,etc. over the whole long haul group,just something i have learned the hard way....also i have seen rifles that will throw the first shot or second as well on a cold barrel in the bullseye..thats what you want to get,one shot-one kill...everything after that doesnt matter a whole lot because 1 shot is usually all you will get if its a good one=DRT..Good Luck and hope this helps,oh by the way,the guys i hunted with that shot 10 shot groups all had there bullets in the middle of the bullseye more or less & this is with light sporter weight barreled Rugers,remingtons, winchester featherweights and such reguler deer rifles...but alot had been bedded & free floated,but not all,some were right out the box...Myself,now,I like to shoot 1 shot per bullseye only,i concentrate more & keep that one shot one kill attitude,I shoot at postage stamp size bullseyes or dime size,a smaller target makes for more concentration for me.....hope this helps & good luck

all my rifles shoot perfect one hole groups.....but then I only fire one shot.

Seems that if I fire two-shot groups the second one is always a flyer and opens up the groups!
any bells ringing?

quote:

Originally posted by vapodog:

quote:

Decent groups of 3 then 1 flyer each time (why?)

There are no such things as "flyers" unless you knew when you shot that the shooter "pulled" or caused it somehow.

That flyer is part of your group and statistically should be measured as such.

Every shooter should take classes in statistics and we'd all have a better understanding of these things.

+1

I was on a less that great shooting roll last summer developing loads for several rifles.
I only shoot three shot groups for testing different loads. And, I use all of the best bench equipment available, along with a 20x scope so I can see bullets hit the target, and to get the best groups that I can get.
Out of any given three shot group, two shots would cut the same hole, and one would be 1/2" away. There was no consistency about which of the 3 shots cut the same hole, it was random. This happened so many times that I got paranoid about it. I concluded that I was changing my hold for one of the shots, but I haven't gotten that squared away yet.
Back to the bench as the snow has almost disappeared..

quote:

Originally posted by blackbearhunter:
... you want to get,one shot-one kill... everything after that doesnt matter a whole lot because 1 shot is usually all you will get if its a good one=DRT...

This is what it is all about. One shot.

I'd suggest you take one Target(Cumulative One Shot Group Target) and hang it separate from all your other Targets. Each time you go to the Range - with your barrel pristine clean - shoot one shot into this Target. Shoot it with the bipod " if " that is the way you will be Hunting. That would tell me more about everything I want to know than all the 1000 shot groups combined.

Meanwhile, ditch the 4-1000 shot groups and go to 3-shot groups.
-----

I do not see where you mentioned actually "Developing the Load". It looks like you simply randomly selected one Load from the Manual and decided to try it. If that is the situation, you are extremely lucky to be shooting as well as you are. No Manual, no internet provided Load and no guessed-at Load will work in all rifles - there is no reality to the optimum charge weight fiasco.

The reason you must Develop the Load for your specific rifle, is due to the Barrel Harmonic being different in all rifles. You can continue the Random Load approach and you may eventually find a Load your rifle likes, but you will never know that it is the "best possible" Load.
-----

quote:

By Digger:
Once I put a nice scope on it and decided to give reloading a try I can't seem to stop going to the range to try and get the smallest group possible.

Good for you.

quote:

My wife thinks I'm nuts

That is the way being married works, no additional Testing is necessary.

If it is almost always the last shot it is definetly a heating problem

mark the cases, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
weigh them before shooting
weigh the bullets
then weigh the cases AFTER the flier ..

if that's not it, measure the neck thickness

is it ALWAYS the 4th shot? if that's the case, the flyer is in your head .. not denying its real, but I have/had a bad habit of pulling the 5th shot, when I am excited about a great group.

happens, though I hate to admit it.

Make sure your barrel is REALLY floating. $1 bill is not enough.I would have to agree about the idea if you are on a roll with a group, you may pull the last shot.I call it choking my self, and I am getting fairly good at it,"choking".

I think SR4759 is onto something here. It's kind of like "buck fever". The subconscious stress to make the perfect shot so as to not screw up the group. The mind is pretty powerful. And very sneaky.

quote:

Originally posted by SR4759:
1. Statistics is a valid way to better understand what is going on.

2. Since you are a human it is possible that you are varying how much pressure your face is putting on the stock contributing to fliers. This can happen when you really, really want the last shot to go into the group so you hold
on extra tight.

3. To really test the rifle I would remove the bipod and use a bag type rest. I know of no benchrest shooter that competes with a bipod.

Just my 2cents

muck

quote:

Originally posted by 303Guy:
You know Winchester 69, I got through your first paragraph and it made sense. I had to take a break before embarking on the second and that made sense, but I will surely have to continue tomorrow before I have any beers!
All's good!

Actually, Guy, I wrote that stuff down to see if I could make sense of it. Seems to have worked.

Trying to consult with SPC, I've had to consider that for some outfits things being ridiculously out of control could make variation analysis non-indicative; in other words, chaos is normal. In my experience, it's the way America operates. Makes it a hell of a lot easier for the money gods to send our life support overseas. Subversive bastards. And now look what the money gods have done: "OOPS!!" I guess we'll just have to rebuild our economy in a Marxist/Leninist pattern.

I think you have the answer: TGIF

Things go downhill up here with a LH twist. Am I right that things down there go uphill with a RH twist?

i know. it gets tiresome. communicating trans-equatorially is still novel to me. Frankly, though, I kinda' liked the one about the bullet reversing rotation when it crossed the equator.

My guess is either the barrel is getting hot or the barrel is fouling. You could be getting antsy about the coming recoil and jerk the last round, too. You might just have a case of the yips, as it manifests itself when standing over a long putt for an eagle on a short par 5. You have a good group going, then you get nervous and blow it. I have done that myself many times. We've all done it: You get nervous and in a hurry, and shoot too soon. You know the instant you fire that you just screwed up your group...

quote:

You get nervous and in a hurry, and shoot too soon. You know the instant you fire that you just screwed up

My wifes says that's my problem at the range and at home.

If you do it this way

it looks like he's running in and out of the piss.

Statistics, strictly in a mathematics sense, do not lie. However they are dependent on data entry.

"Data, on the other hand, if sufficiently tortured, can be made to confess to anything."

quote:

My wife says that's my problem at the range and at home.

See your urologist...