quote:

Originally posted by Opus1:
No Testing = No Cases

Without testing data and hospital surveillance feedback, no one has any idea to the extent COVID-19 is rampant or quiet in Africa. The WHO is reporting they only have 62 workers for the entire continent. So information is sketchy at best.

South America is seeing growing activity of COVID. But this is probably due to the fact that South America has a much better standard of healthcare and access to hospitals where testing and treatment is being conducted.

The flu season starts over the next few months on the African continent, so maybe then we will see infection rate data. Considering the rate of Tuberculosis infections in Africa (which is far less infectious than COVID-19), I do not see how Africans avoid the COVID pandemic. Considering the underlying poor health and infectious diseases within the population, they certainly are not the healthiest folks on the planet.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by Opus1:
No Testing = No Cases

Without testing data and hospital surveillance feedback, no one has any idea to the extent COVID-19 is rampant or quiet in Africa. The WHO is reporting they only have 62 workers for the entire continent. So information is sketchy at best.

South America is seeing growing activity of COVID. But this is probably due to the fact that South America has a much better standard of healthcare and access to hospitals where testing and treatment is being conducted.

The flu season starts over the next few months on the African continent, so maybe then we will see infection rate data. Considering the rate of Tuberculosis infections in Africa (which is far less infectious than COVID-19), I do not see how Africans avoid the COVID pandemic. Considering the underlying poor health and infectious diseases within the population, they certainly are not the healthiest folks on the planet.

Prior immunity, unfavorable climate??? Or possibly the death-rate “increase” is too low to notice???

Chinese contamination of other populations was likely more rampant in Africa than anywhere else. They do seem the perfect population for it to spread like wildfire. Thus to me...it seems it should have taken off rampantly months ago there...if it were going to. I am skeptical it is going to have much effect in Africa.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:
We see the Wuhan virus ravaging New York City and New Orleans -- but not Cairo or Dar es Salaam. Why? Dar is essentially a 2.5 million person slum. Anyone who's ever been to Tanzania knows the very strong Chinese connection. They had to have been thoroughly exposed to the virus and from an early date. Their reporting of cases may not be as organized as in first world countries but if Dar would have had thousands of cases that would be very apparent. Clearly, there's some dynamic here that we don't understand.

If you look at the stats...I am not sure ravaging is the correct verb. Certainly it is not good and warranted precautions albeit my opinion is we have leapt off the deep-end in this country.

That said...I agree with your observations...see my other post.

It possibly could be that the “increase” in death numbers is so low and the symptoms so ambiguous that it goes unnoticed. Or it could be the things I mentioned in my other post.

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:
We see the Wuhan virus ravaging New York City and New Orleans -- but not Cairo or Dar es Salaam. Why? Dar is essentially a 2.5 million person slum. Anyone who's ever been to Tanzania knows the very strong Chinese connection. They had to have been thoroughly exposed to the virus and from an early date. Their reporting of cases may not be as organized as in first world countries but if Dar would have had thousands of cases that would be very apparent. Clearly, there's some dynamic here that we don't understand.

If you look at the stats...I am not sure ravaging is the correct verb. Certainly it is not good and warranted precautions albeit my opinion is we have leapt off the deep-end in this country.

That said...I agree with your observations...see my other post.

It possibly could be that the “increase” in death numbers is so low and the symptoms so ambiguous that it goes unnoticed. Or it could be the things I mentioned in my other post.

I think it's safe to say that people in the densely populated Dar slums are not holed up in isolation as we are (if they don't work today they don't eat tomorrow). Likewise, I'll bet they're not using masks and hand sanitizers. Also safe to say that if the average person gets sick they have lttle access to any supportive medical care. Even in the absence of testing for Wuhan, given what we've been told, there should be hordes of people dying of respiratory failure in the streets. The media would delight in showing us such pictures if they exist. Why aren't we seeing this? As opposed to the US and Europe, I doubt they have many nursing homes filled with 90 yo people with lives being artificially extended by modern medicine. If we did not have these in first world countries I think that you'd have very few fatalities.

quote:

If we did not have these in first world countries I think that you'd have very few fatalities.

quote:

Originally posted by Balule:
Well, here in South Africa we are now in day 13 of lockdown. The total number of confirmed cases is 1749, 13 people have died, 58095 tests have been performed.

This past weekend I did the training for donning and doffing PPE as being an anaesthetist I am on the intubation team for Covid19 cases in ICU.

Thus far at our hospital one case has been admitted to ICU. We are waiting for the bomb to explode but since lockdown new cases has been less than 100/day.

I am at home, spending time fixing up my camping trailer, hunting rig and other mundane tasks that I never get to.

The epidemic is growing much slower than expected. Are we only going to face the storm later? What is happening?

For some reason it seems that Covid19 is not really getting traction in Africa. A couple of theories are bandied about and I’ll touch on 2.

In South Africa nearly the whole population has been immunised with BCG vaccine against tuberculosis. There is speculation that it may offer some protection against Covid19???

The Covid19 virus binds to the ACE2 enzyme which is part of blood pressure control physiology. Black people have lower ACE2 levels than Caucasians as is reflected in hypertension treatment protocols. The implication, who knows?

For the moment I am quite happy hiding for the virus as one of 5 million whites between more than 40 million blacks! Only time will tell how this is going to develop in Africa.

The way I see this globally is somethings needs to be burned on the altar; either the vulnerable segment of the population or the economy.

This may well be our generations Great Depression or World War.

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:
We see the Wuhan virus ravaging New York City and New Orleans -- but not Cairo or Dar es Salaam. Why? Dar is essentially a 2.5 million person slum. Anyone who's ever been to Tanzania knows the very strong Chinese connection. They had to have been thoroughly exposed to the virus and from an early date. Their reporting of cases may not be as organized as in first world countries but if Dar would have had thousands of cases that would be very apparent. Clearly, there's some dynamic here that we don't understand.

If you look at the stats...I am not sure ravaging is the correct verb. Certainly it is not good and warranted precautions albeit my opinion is we have leapt off the deep-end in this country.

That said...I agree with your observations...see my other post.

It possibly could be that the “increase” in death numbers is so low and the symptoms so ambiguous that it goes unnoticed. Or it could be the things I mentioned in my other post.

I think it's safe to say that people in the densely populated Dar slums are not holed up in isolation as we are (if they don't work today they don't eat tomorrow). Likewise, I'll bet they're not using masks and hand sanitizers. Also safe to say that if the average person gets sick they have lttle access to any supportive medical care. Even in the absence of testing for Wuhan, given what we've been told, there should be hordes of people dying of respiratory failure in the streets. The media would delight in showing us such pictures if they exist. Why aren't we seeing this? As opposed to the US and Europe, I doubt they have many nursing homes filled with 90 yo people with lives being artificially extended by modern medicine. If we did not have these in first world countries I think that you'd have very few fatalities.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:
We see the Wuhan virus ravaging New York City and New Orleans -- but not Cairo or Dar es Salaam. Why? Dar is essentially a 2.5 million person slum. Anyone who's ever been to Tanzania knows the very strong Chinese connection. They had to have been thoroughly exposed to the virus and from an early date. Their reporting of cases may not be as organized as in first world countries but if Dar would have had thousands of cases that would be very apparent. Clearly, there's some dynamic here that we don't understand.

If you look at the stats...I am not sure ravaging is the correct verb. Certainly it is not good and warranted precautions albeit my opinion is we have leapt off the deep-end in this country.

That said...I agree with your observations...see my other post.

It possibly could be that the “increase” in death numbers is so low and the symptoms so ambiguous that it goes unnoticed. Or it could be the things I mentioned in my other post.

I think it's safe to say that people in the densely populated Dar slums are not holed up in isolation as we are (if they don't work today they don't eat tomorrow). Likewise, I'll bet they're not using masks and hand sanitizers. Also safe to say that if the average person gets sick they have lttle access to any supportive medical care. Even in the absence of testing for Wuhan, given what we've been told, there should be hordes of people dying of respiratory failure in the streets. The media would delight in showing us such pictures if they exist. Why aren't we seeing this? As opposed to the US and Europe, I doubt they have many nursing homes filled with 90 yo people with lives being artificially extended by modern medicine. If we did not have these in first world countries I think that you'd have very few fatalities.

Maybe the virus does not like the heat and humidity?

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by JohnDL:
We see the Wuhan virus ravaging New York City and New Orleans -- but not Cairo or Dar es Salaam. Why? Dar is essentially a 2.5 million person slum. Anyone who's ever been to Tanzania knows the very strong Chinese connection. They had to have been thoroughly exposed to the virus and from an early date. Their reporting of cases may not be as organized as in first world countries but if Dar would have had thousands of cases that would be very apparent. Clearly, there's some dynamic here that we don't understand.

If you look at the stats...I am not sure ravaging is the correct verb. Certainly it is not good and warranted precautions albeit my opinion is we have leapt off the deep-end in this country.

That said...I agree with your observations...see my other post.

It possibly could be that the “increase” in death numbers is so low and the symptoms so ambiguous that it goes unnoticed. Or it could be the things I mentioned in my other post.

I think it's safe to say that people in the densely populated Dar slums are not holed up in isolation as we are (if they don't work today they don't eat tomorrow). Likewise, I'll bet they're not using masks and hand sanitizers. Also safe to say that if the average person gets sick they have lttle access to any supportive medical care. Even in the absence of testing for Wuhan, given what we've been told, there should be hordes of people dying of respiratory failure in the streets. The media would delight in showing us such pictures if they exist. Why aren't we seeing this? As opposed to the US and Europe, I doubt they have many nursing homes filled with 90 yo people with lives being artificially extended by modern medicine. If we did not have these in first world countries I think that you'd have very few fatalities.

Maybe the virus does not like the heat and humidity?

Believe you are dead right Andrew.

quote:

Originally posted by fulvio:
C-19 cases and death tolls south of the Equator:

RSA 1800 - 83 dead
Zambia 39 - 1 dead
TZ 25 - 1 dead
Zim 11 - 2 dead
Uganda 52 - 0 dead
Moz 17 - 0 dead

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:

quote:

Originally posted by fulvio:
C-19 cases and death tolls south of the Equator:

RSA 1800 - 83 dead
Zambia 39 - 1 dead
TZ 25 - 1 dead
Zim 11 - 2 dead
Uganda 52 - 0 dead
Moz 17 - 0 dead

African countries (along with much of South America) are the countries, along with the United States, in which the lowest level of actual testing is being done. In the U.S. at the current time, 149 out of 150 people have NOT been tested. I'm sure the ratio is similarly large in the Southern Hemisphere.

If you don't know how many people are infected and who and where they are it is impossible to draw any real conclusions regarding the nature of an infection.

However, it is a fact that cold weather decreases the body's resistance to the coronavirus family (which includes the common cold virus).

Sorry, but that is not a fact. It is more likely that cooler temperatures provide a better environment for viral survival on inanimate surfaces and put people in closer contact more often--hastening spread.

Also, human corona virus is just one of several known viruses which cause the upper respiratory infections we refer to as the "common cold." Most virologists suggest that there are many circulating viruses which commonly cause cold-like symptoms in which we have yet to discover.

Therefore it is reasonable to conclude that the infection, which surfaced during the Northern Hemisphere winter would be slower to spread in the Southern Hemisphere's summer.

Possible for the reasons I outlined above involving viral survival.

Very little of the Southern Hemisphere is subject to really cold weather, but what happens in parts of S. Africa, Namibia, Argentina, Chile, etc. as cold weather does occur may tell us something of whether the covid-19 virus "dislikes" colder weather.

True

The same is true as to whether we see some reduction in the rate of infection in the U.S. as warmer weather approaches.

True...but likely based on what know about this and other similar viruses.

Obviously, warmer and more humid weather isn't a huge or controlling factor since New Orleans is a hot spot for infection.

Maybe or maybe not...it was not that terribly warm there when (January-March)most of the virus circulated causing the seen cases. Plus, the most susceptible populations are over represented there (N O) in extreme close proximity. The upcoming weeks will be more telling.

But comparing relatively cold and heavily infected New York with relatively warm and more lightly infected California, one might draw the inference that warmer weather may have some small retarding impact on the spread of the virus.

And no, Mr. President, it won't "just go away in April".

quote:

Originally posted by fulvio:
C-19 cases and death tolls south of the Equator:

RSA 1800 - 83 dead
Zambia 39 - 1 dead
TZ 25 - 1 dead
Zim 11 - 2 dead
Uganda 52 - 0 dead
Moz 17 - 0 dead

quote:

Originally posted by Bwana338:
Difficult to obtain up to date reporting.

Benin - Passengers are subject to a quarantine for 14 days.
Botswana - passengers can no longer obtain a visa on arrival in Botswana.
Burlina Faso - The country's airports are closed.
Cameroon - On March 17, the government shut down land, air and sea borders.
Congo - has closed its borders and all airports.
South Africa - barred entry to foreign travelers arriving from or transiting through high risk countries. The USA is included.
Zambia - All international flights must arrive at Kenneth Kaunda International Lusaka Airport.. Passengers and airline crew must be quarantined for at least 14 days at their own cost.
Zimbabwe - All borders will be closed to human traffic, except for returning residents.

Botswana - 6
Benin - 23
Zambia - 39
Namibia - 16
Zimbabwe - 10
Mozambique - 10
Tanzania - 24
Congo - 45
DR Congo - 161
Cameroon - 658
Burkina Faso - 345
South Africa - 1686

quote:

Originally posted by A.Dahlgren:
one good thing that will come from this virus is that China will have such a bad name in the world that they will be pushed back and stay where they belong.

quote:

Originally posted by Capt. Purvis:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RVABcl5qPA0

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by A.Dahlgren:
one good thing that will come from this virus is that China will have such a bad name in the world that they will be pushed back and stay where they belong.

They'll spin it in such a way that it will be America's fault specifically Trump's especially with the media on their side. A recent survey among liberal college students had majority of them blame Trump rather than the Chinese for Covid-19, go figure.

quote:

However, it is a fact that cold weather decreases the body's resistance to the coronavirus family (which includes the common cold virus).

Sorry, but that is not a fact. It is more likely that cooler temperatures provide a better environment for viral survival on inanimate surfaces and put people in closer contact more often--hastening spread.

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:

quote:

However, it is a fact that cold weather decreases the body's resistance to the coronavirus family (which includes the common cold virus).

Sorry, but that is not a fact. It is more likely that cooler temperatures provide a better environment for viral survival on inanimate surfaces and put people in closer contact more often--hastening spread.

Lane, We'll just have to disagree on this. I realize that some clinicians debate this, and the cold weather infection phenomenon may have multiple facets, but cold stress certainly

Not to beat a dead horse...but not the kind of cold people are likely exposed to in today's times. Simple winter temperatures and being out side for a while like deer hunting do not weaken the immune system. Yes...if you are out feeding cattle in teen degree weather, stick the truck with no cell phone 5 miles from help, walk out wearing only a light jacket, slip fall in a tank, and walk back to the house soaking wet in with a 35 mph north wind...yes. reduces mammalian immune capacities.

I'm sure you've run across this in your practice where animals which are neither exposed to hard surfaces or closer contact suffer from cold weather infections that would not be a problem in warmer weather.

Actually it is the opposite for horses (I only work on horses). Keeping them too warm in the winter promotes respiratory disease. Good study done out of HDM in Lexington, KY on blanketing horses...it was bad for them. But...horses were evolved to be artic animals and tolerate even extreme cold temperatures well. Sudden extreme changes (similar to my chilled man example) do cause problems. Respiratory infectious disease in the horse is concentrated in the warmer months.

Still, I suspect is it folly to expect the covid-19 infections to abate substantially simply due to warmer weather.

quote:

Originally posted by Bwana338:
Difficult to obtain up to date reporting.

Daily increases are being reported in a few African countries.


Botswana - 13
Benin - 35
Zambia - 40
Namibia - 16
Zimbabwe - 13
Mozambique - 20
Tanzania - 32
Congo - 60
DR Congo - 215
Cameroon - 820
Burkina Faso - 443
South Africa - 2003

quote:

Originally posted by Opus1:
What is happening, or more to the point isn't happening, in Africa in regards to COVID-19 is a conundrum. It has nothing to do with closed borders or any action the governments have taken as all of that is largely for show. But the lack of cases and hospitalizations is perplexing.

Maybe it started in Africa and moved on from there?

Lack of testing is certainly one reason for low numbers, but the lack of testing does not account for the lack of hospitalizations and deaths. Granted, dying in Africa is their favorite pastime and a few more million a month would hardly make a dent, however, something else is at play.

It will be interesting to see where all this leads.

quote:

Originally posted by tomahawker:
Only work on horses? Oh Lane

quote:

Originally posted by Opus1:
What is happening, or more to the point isn't happening, in Africa in regards to COVID-19 is a conundrum. It has nothing to do with closed borders or any action the governments have taken as all of that is largely for show. But the lack of cases and hospitalizations is perplexing.

Lack of testing is certainly one reason for low numbers, but the lack of testing does not account for the lack of hospitalizations and deaths. Granted, dying in Africa is their favorite pastime and a few more million a month would hardly make a dent, however, something else is at play.

It will be interesting to see where all this leads.

quote:

Originally posted by tomahawker:
Yes! Just an old hog and cattle farmer giving you a hard time.