Has anyone thought of what these might look like if things don't return to normal? It seem to me that a fair number of vendors will not survive this total shutdown. Logically speaking, it seems that both shows will be smaller.

I think the whole world we have been living in is going to change.

Let’s hope and pray for the best.

It is strange to think about retraction at DSC, but many won’t book flights until they know. However, many outfitters have paid for their 2021 booths.

The Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center may, or may not, be a temporary hospital. Local and state leaders are doing a measuring contest now.

Everyone must adjust...sadly.

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
I think the whole world we have been living in is going to change.

Dont be so dramatic Saeed

Altough I think both shows next year will be suffering hard.

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Has anyone thought of what these might look like if things don't return to normal? It seem to me that a fair number of vendors will not survive this total shutdown. Logically speaking, it seems that both shows will be smaller.

No vaccine - 2021 conventions for everything are dead - from hunting to surfing.

Rest of the country will come back faster than expected and some will suck. Next 15 months will be interesting.

A lot of people and a lot more sci dsc members will be self quarantining till vaccine.

When I said African hunting and safaris are going to be distant luxuries a while back is coming to sad fruition.

Some business models are more pandemic resistant than others. Discretionary vacations in third world countries which require long haul flights and sold in conventions centers are not very pandemic resistant.

2022 on things should come back to normal - we need a vaccine.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Has anyone thought of what these might look like if things don't return to normal? It seem to me that a fair number of vendors will not survive this total shutdown. Logically speaking, it seems that both shows will be smaller.

No vaccine - 2021 conventions for everything are dead - from hunting to surfing.

Rest of the country will come back faster than expected and some will suck. Next 15 months will be interesting.

A lot of people and a lot more sci dsc members will be self quarantining till vaccine.

When I said African hunting and safaris are going to be distant luxuries a while back is coming to sad fruition.

Some business models are more pandemic resistant than others. Discretionary vacations in third world countries which require long haul flights and sold in conventions centers are not very pandemic resistant.

2022 on things should come back to normal - we need a vaccine.

Mike

Vaccine or what did Trump call it.."The Herd"

Most of the major shows in Europe got cancelled this year! Every type of convention, game, music concert, etc etc is all over until a solution is found!

If a simple chore like driving in your own car to go grocery shopping while avoiding touching something that has been touched by someone is so difficult. How the hell are you going to go to a convention! Its like a bloody sci-fi horror movie!

The future plan seems to be social distancing to drop the spread to near zero.

At the same time, mass testing be made possible, with a cure found

Longer term a vaccine to be discovered.

And we all have a corona card!!! As proof of vaccination. Those who got it and cured are called Covidians!

The darker side being it mutates in to something even more deadly, then we are doomed!

The only survivors will be the Sentinelese on Sentinel island in the Indian ocean - dont plan to shack up with them as the last American who tried that a couple of years ago was promptly killed by them!

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Has anyone thought of what these might look like if things don't return to normal? It seem to me that a fair number of vendors will not survive this total shutdown. Logically speaking, it seems that both shows will be smaller.

Larry, it appears that both the DSC & SCI convention will be smaller. I am not sure there will be many International airline flights for travelers going or coming. In 6 months we may have a better picture.

I believe that the conventions will be basically, localized in nature. I am thinking North American outfits. Right now anyone who is in the danger area (older with medical issues, over weight) needs to be careful. I am thinking that next year will be a year to sit out for the conventions. Attending and becoming ill is not a good situation to put your self in. So we need to be personally responsible for our own safety.

I do not see 2021 being opened up to International travel until late in the year, so I am planning for 2023 in my return to Africa. I am thinking my trip for this year, that we have now moved into 2021, will be moved into 2022.

In my planning phase, yesterday, I ordered a new rifle and scope (I gave the business 2 different model of scope that, I would be happy with either one), and for there gunsmith to do some tweaking on the rifle for me. Plus I am currently looking at obtaining a second rifle (fierce or christensen) and use one of the new scopes I have in my book case behind me. Also I have been kind of talking to a few different PH's on different hunts for 2022 or 2023 that is something I have not done before. I am looking at a different country (one I have never been to) and different animals to go after. Until I know what will happen with my trip for 2021, I am not stacking any more on my agenda.

quote:

Originally posted by A.Dahlgren:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Has anyone thought of what these might look like if things don't return to normal? It seem to me that a fair number of vendors will not survive this total shutdown. Logically speaking, it seems that both shows will be smaller.

No vaccine - 2021 conventions for everything are dead - from hunting to surfing.

Rest of the country will come back faster than expected and some will suck. Next 15 months will be interesting.

A lot of people and a lot more sci dsc members will be self quarantining till vaccine.

When I said African hunting and safaris are going to be distant luxuries a while back is coming to sad fruition.

Some business models are more pandemic resistant than others. Discretionary vacations in third world countries which require long haul flights and sold in conventions centers are not very pandemic resistant.

2022 on things should come back to normal - we need a vaccine.

Mike

Vaccine or what did Trump call it.."The Herd"

The herd don’t work for

60 plus
Diabetics
Cancer survivors
Any auto immune
Heart patients
Asthma

The herd works for the USMC but it does not work sci crowd.


Just imagine if this had started in late December and everyone went to dsc with its packed convention.


A vaccine will come this is a relatively easy vaccine. Just need time for safety and efficacy.


Mike

No but it Will stop the spread and ultimately stop the virus. To stop the world 1.5 years will not happen anywhere I think

quote:

Originally posted by A.Dahlgren:
No but it Will stop the spread and ultimately stop the virus. To stop the world 1.5 years will not happen anywhere I think

It won’t for the world but it will happen for a lot of people in the above group.

60 plus and those with health issues.

Mike

Some countries in Europe are giving signals that social distancing rules are something which will be implemented over longer times (12-18 months), indeed until a large proportion of the population is vaccinated, so the healthcare system won't be inundated with patients until restrictions are lifted.
No vaccine = no conventions.

About 20 vaccines are currently in development, several pharmaceuticals have allocated big money to it (>1 billion $ each), they want to be the first and best (found who are developing the vaccines, invest in all of them and the winner will double it's value). Usual time-frame says at least 12-18 months, it might be quicker, but not much.
The vaccines need to be developed (some are done), then usually tested at animals (some skip this step), then tested on a few volunteers for short term side effects, then on a larger group of volunteers for effectiveness. Anti-body counts in those volunteers need to be monitored, as well as side-effects, over at least 6 months. Then maybe they need to do challenge studies. If body count development looks good over the 6 months a company might decide to start setting up a mass manufacturing process, so they can hit the ground running once they get a green light. But then still, producing billions of vaccines takes time, distributing takes time, administering takes time.
I would say there is a very real possibility SCI and DSC won't happen in 2021. Or maybe they'll do something online.
Or somebody comes up with a magical, cheap and easy cure.

If it is like China and the graph shows almost zero new cases, I can't see convention attendance or anything affected-unless it is in the elite's agenda that things remain closed.

go back to finance
Beretta682E

or go to med school
or get Phd in immunology

you are not comprehending "herd immunity"

quote:

Originally posted by shootaway:
If it is like China and the graph shows almost zero new cases,

China has been dishonest about this virus from day one. Remember that they originally said that it could not be transmitted from human to human....


They're numbers might be real but I would be willing to bet money that they are not.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:


Some business models are more pandemic resistant than others. Discretionary vacations in third world countries which require long haul flights and sold in conventions centers are not very pandemic resistant.

Mike

This raises the obvious question- "Are conventions necessary to sell hunts?"

I wonder how many hunts are actually sold "at" the convention.

I realize that a ton of hunts are booked at the convention, but in this internet age I wonder how many of those hunts are booked by guys who have done all their research before the convention, and show up knowing more or less who they are going to book with. I mean how many guys walk into the convention, stop at and attractive display, start chatting with an outfit they have never researched and ultimately book a hunt.

Thirty years ago I am sure that this was the norm. Somehow I doubt that is still the case.

I have attended the SCI convention in Reno a handful of times but I never booked a hunt there. All of the hunts I have ever booked(6) have been done "through word of mouth" recommendations and acquaintances I have made online.

We are about one full generation into the internet age. There can't be that many "old guys" who still in the dark regarding the internet. I really wonder if the number of hunts booked at a convention provides enough extra business to justify the costs involved.

I would be interested to hear from outfitters on this.

China's numbers are staggering.

There are multiple reports of funeral urns selling at rates that are 5 -6 times normal.

China is not being honest about their numbers.

There will be no conventions without the antivirus vaccination, matter of fact.

No sports, no conventions, no meetings, and many businesses will close.

I would not be surprised if 50-80% of all public trading businesses close. I can get almost everything I need from www.costco.com, www.midwayusa.com, www.kuiu.com, www.amazon.com or www.thrivemarket.com

I’ve visited with several outfitters (SA and Zim), nearly every one of them is hurting badly. Some have said they won’t be able to afford to come to the US, others have said they might only be able to afford to attend one convention. I suspect hunt donations will be down, way down. I sure hope I’m wrong.

Should be all over by then. Business as usual

quote:

Originally posted by Big Wonderful Wyoming:
China's numbers are staggering.

There are multiple reports of funeral urns selling at rates that are 5 -6 times normal.

China is not being honest about their numbers.

There will be no conventions without the antivirus vaccination, matter of fact.

No sports, no conventions, no meetings, and many businesses will close.

I would not be surprised if 50-80% of all public trading businesses close. I can get almost everything I need from www.costco.com, www.midwayusa.com, www.kuiu.com, www.amazon.com or www.thrivemarket.com

I agree with BWW. However, I been told when I asked on here that the virus is fairly simple. That a vaccine should be able to come to the market. Like I said, I am a pray for the best expect the worse kind of guy. I pray for a vaccine. I expect one not to come, so how do we move forward of a vaccine is not commit in the foreseeable future is the question I would be asking if I were in high Government.

None of my three overseas hits were bought at the conventions.

This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

Like Karl, I have talked to outfitters all of which are hurting . I fear what this might do to the industry.

Personally, I have a bunch of hunts booked. One has been cancelled. I suspect 2 others will be cancelled.

Never expected this .

quote:

Originally posted by DuggaBoye:
go back to finance
Beretta682E

or go to med school
or get Phd in immunology

you are not comprehending "herd immunity"

Go pick a fight with him and teach him about herd immunity.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...people-infected.html

The policy choices already have been made in the US by federal state local And financial authorities. It ain’t betting on herd immunity. Boris Johnson tried that till reality set in on policy and he had to personally make a trip to the icu.

I doubt any cancer survivor or immuno compromised person is going to be running around next year betting on herd immunity.

Consumer behavior will be impacted. And international hunting will be impacted.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

This exactly!

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

My guess is that North American outfitters will be hurting big time too.

I am not sure what makes a North American hunt any safer than any other country. You still have airlines, motels, car rental, restaurants, etc all of which will be less than safe.

If I was in my eighties I might worry.

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

Doesn’t the US have more cases than any other country? Does fishing somehow ward off the virus in a way that hunting does not?

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?


Just wondering,,,

quote:

Originally posted by shootaway:
If I was in my eighties I might worry.

This pandemic sure is bringing out some odd comments.

The US has far more cases than any other country. And it has been reported that the average age of people dying from this virus is "over 80" but that means that a lot of people younger than that age group have been dying too.

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

I'll submit that I would be safer in the bush in Africa (once I get there) than a hunt camp in Montana.

It is going to be extremely tough for hunting outfits in Africa...more so due to measures taken by governments than the disease itself.

I say wait until August and see what things are like. If it is good then (which I suspect)...Oct and November will tell the tale on whether the virus was able to find a reservoir. If no cases spike up in the Fall...2021 might be fine. Even if no disease...it will likely be too short of time to make 2021 conventions normal.

All this said...from the data I have seeen...the virus was likely circulating in the USA in January when the conventions were going.

quote:

Originally posted by boliep:

quote:

Originally posted by crshelton:
This may sound like heresy, but why not skip hunting risky areas and hunt the USA and Canada next year?

Or go fishing?

Just wondering,,,

My guess is that North American outfitters will be hurting big time too.

I am not sure what makes a North American hunt any safer than any other country. You still have airlines, motels, car rental, restaurants, etc all of which will be less than safe.

The hotel thing is rough. I am considering buying a pickup camper and staying in that for all the rest of my touring this year.

The DSC convention should be moved to a more rural location and close to an RV park anyway.

I’ve got a peacock bass and dove Cast& Blast booked for Bolivia in September, I’m thinking it’ll be 50/50 as to whether we can go. Other than that and my son’s wedding on Veterans Day, I have no travel plans. Might pick up a quality mule deer or elk hunt if I can’t go to Africa. But, if we can fly this fall, I’ll be looking for a late season African hunt with one of a few different PHs that I want to hunt with. I’m a banker and we are busy as hell with these PPP loans on top of what has already been a busy year. By fall, I’m gonna find a good hunt to go on somewhere, come hell or high water. It might be Montana or Wyoming but I hope it’ll be somewhere in Africa.

quote:

Originally posted by shootaway:
If it is like China and the graph shows almost zero new cases, I can't see convention attendance or anything affected-unless it is in the elite's agenda that things remain closed.

The bloody Chinks have been lying!

And that is why the whole world is where it is now!

I would never believe a word from them.

And anyone who has been taking this very lightly is an idiot!

My bet is that before a vaccine they will come up with a treatment regimen to drastically reduce severe symptoms/hospitalizations/deaths. There may also be a prophylactic for vulnerable groups. For example I know anecdotally a lot of the medical staff in India is taking hydroxy already and I read of a large scale study of the same being started all over Asia.

Once that happens it will take off a lot of the pressure - vaccine or not.

The Dallas Convention Center
is a make shift hospital.

What about herd immunity?

Beretta682E: Boris Johnson is a chain smoker. I saw him when I was in the UK last year and he smoked 5+ cigarettes in less than an hour while someone else spoke. Coincidence?

quote:

Originally posted by drj:
Beretta682E: Boris Johnson is a chain smoker. I saw him when I was in the UK last year and he smoked 5+ cigarettes in less than an hour while someone else spoke. Coincidence?

No but the idiot should have quarantined himself and stopped shaking hands.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Wesheltonj:
Should be all over by then. Business as usual

Bullshit. The hangover will linger.