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| One of Us |
+1 on that post! I too am in manufacturing, mostly defense. We are holding up pretty good, but when I look at going outside of my industry to diversify it's a whole new ball of wax! Luckly I'm smack-dab in the middle of the Oil Patch, thus am focusing on that sector as my next arear of investment in manufacturing! Somebody had better "invent" a new economy PDQ or most will go by the wayside - and that ain't good news for the Safari outfitters! (unless you like Chi-coms!) LOL! JW | |||
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Recession or depression? I don't know except I had to tell my safari company that I couldn't afford to come again this year to help clean up his left over quota. 465H&H | |||
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Spoken like a guy who works for the gov't. seriously, the other problem with this economy is that there is a fire sale on assetts. If you have money, there are all kinds of things you can buy at fire-sale prices. | |||
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Mike_Dettorre, So let's throw a party because it's not 1934? You're buying, right? Just because our current DEPRESSION is not as "great" as the GREAT DEPRESSION doesn't mean that it's not a DEPRESSION. Sorry but I prefer to see reality for what it is. Mike Wilderness is my cathedral, and hunting is my prayer. | |||
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Out of curiosity, do you have an objective definition for depression, similar to what is used for recession? Or are you using the Supreme Court metric for pornography "know it when you see it"? Without an answer to this question, it is impossible to have an informed discussion on your statement. | |||
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I think the recession/depression thing is (at least to some extent) depending on where in the world one is referring to. Certainly some of the countries in Europe seem to be having a much harder time of it than the US is currently having. Overall, I reckon it's closer to a depression than it is a recession if you consider it as a worldwide thing and my guess is it'll get worse before it gets better and the recent downgrading of the US credit rating ain't gonna make it any better. | |||
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This distinction requires a shared understanding of what those words mean. | |||
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Perhaps it's partly a case of two nations divided by a common language?  Or alternatively, perhaps some might not appreciate there's more than one country in the world!  | |||
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Steve Be nice or we will cut off your jeep parts.  SSR | |||
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  OK. you win!!!!  | |||
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But it is not a world wide thing, not by any means and IMHO it is not a depression. Recession may be. Asia is still powering along, China in particularly (9%), Australia doing good although they say a bit of a 2 speed economy (mining booming, other areas not). On the other hand, as you say Europe doing it hard as is the US. . | |||
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I am using the common definition of the words applied to economics. The economy has basically been flat for the last three years and will be probably be flat this year. When you have a line which charts the value of a number, and that line increases 3-4% a year and then flattens, that is not a depression. Some folks are as bad as politicians, who say because we didn't increase spending as much as we did last year, we are cutting spending. If your a salesman and your sales performance were $900k one year followed by $930K followed by $960K followed by $990K followed by $985K followed by $990K for another two years, you would argue to the end of the earth if your sales manager called them depressed and that your performance sucked. This is the way the news media describes the current economy. Same thing if you were in charge of production and it was units produced and the VP of Manufacturing was giving you a bad time. None of the above is to say that certain sectors and certain individuals are not in a bad way. The news media and the general public react and converse like a 12 year old who gets three bad bruises on his arm and it is really uncomfortable but they are only bruises. But because it hurts, the 12 year old wants to call it a broken arm because that is a better story and he feels better complaining about a broken arm than bruises. Nobody likes what we are in because it upsets our personal financial plans and recreational plans but that doesn't make it something that it is not. We may not see 5% unemployment for a long time. But if in 2-3 years from now, we end up with 6-8% unemployment with 1-2% economic growth for the next decade it still won't be an economic depression. Feel free to call it whatever you want but calling my lab (who barks when someone comes to the front door) a vicious man eating wolf doesn't make her one. Mike Never under estimate the internet community's ability to reply to your post with their personal rant about their tangentially related, single occurrence issue.  What I have learned on AR, since 2001: 1. The proper answer to: Where is the best place in town to get a steak dinner? is…You should go to Mel's Diner and get the fried chicken. 2. Big game animals can tell the difference between .015 of an inch in diameter, 15 grains of bullet weight, and 150 fps. 3. There is a difference in the performance of two identical projectiles launched at the same velocity if they came from different cartridges. 4. While a double rifle is the perfect DGR, every 375HH bolt gun needs to be modified to carry at least 5 down. 5. While a floor plate and detachable box magazine both use a mechanical latch, only the floor plate latch is reliable. Disregard the fact that every modern military rifle uses a detachable box magazine. 6. The Remington 700 is unreliable regardless of the fact it is the basis of the USMC M40 sniper rifle for 40+ years with no changes to the receiver or extractor and is the choice of more military and law enforcement sniper units than any other rifle. 7. PF actions are not suitable for a DGR and it is irrelevant that the M1, M14, M16, & AK47 which were designed for hunting men that can shoot back are all PF actions. 8. 95 deg F in Africa is different than 95 deg F in TX or CA and that is why you must worry about ammunition temperature in Africa (even though most safaris take place in winter) but not in TX or in CA. 9. The size of a ding in a gun's finish doesn't matter, what matters is whether it’s a safe ding or not. 10. 1 in a row is a trend, 2 in a row is statistically significant, and 3 in a row is an irrefutable fact. 11. Never buy a WSM or RCM cartridge for a safari rifle or your go to rifle in the USA because if they lose your ammo you can't find replacement ammo but don't worry 280 Rem, 338-06, 35 Whelen, and all Weatherby cartridges abound in Africa and back country stores. 12. A well hit animal can run 75 yds. in the open and suddenly drop with no initial blood trail, but the one I shot from 200 yds. away that ran 10 yds. and disappeared into a thicket and was not found was lost because the bullet penciled thru. I am 100% certain of this even though I have no physical evidence. 13. A 300 Win Mag is a 500 yard elk cartridge but a 308 Win is not a 300 yard elk cartridge even though the same bullet is travelling at the same velocity at those respective distances. | |||
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DLA69, An economic depression would be a contraction/reduction of real GDP, reduction in real prices across the majority of industries, and broad scale high unemployment across the majority of industries over a multi-year period say 2-4 years. The above has to apply to the economy as a whole not just a few sectors and the percentages of the reductions need be more than just a "blimp" say greater than 3%. As I mentioned earlier the Great Depression saw a reduction in US GDP of 25% over a 4 year period and it took 4-5 years to recover. There were similar conditions in the rest of the world. In the US and the world as a whole, 2009 GDP represented less than a 1% reduction from 2008 and 2010 estimates show a return to 2008 levels. There are certain countries now that are in a depression but to say the US is in a depression or the majority of Europe is in a depression or the world as whole is in a depression is simply not true. The EU economy grew about 4% from 2009 to 2010. The term recession, IIRC, started being used in the mid 1970s or early 1980s when economic growth slowed and unemployment started to increase. Over the last 40 years whenever unemployment increases and GDP per capita flattens or declines slightly the media and the public dialog generally starts to use the word recession. During these same periods, individuals/groups who are negatively impacted often want to label the status of the economy a "depression" but that is like calling two loose cows at a 4H fair a stampede and no matter how much you explain facts to the 12 year old who the cow bumped into and knocked over; the 12 year old still wants to call it a stampede. That however is just human nature. Mike Never under estimate the internet community's ability to reply to your post with their personal rant about their tangentially related, single occurrence issue. What I have learned on AR, since 2001: 1. The proper answer to: Where is the best place in town to get a steak dinner? is…You should go to Mel's Diner and get the fried chicken. 2. Big game animals can tell the difference between .015 of an inch in diameter, 15 grains of bullet weight, and 150 fps. 3. There is a difference in the performance of two identical projectiles launched at the same velocity if they came from different cartridges. 4. While a double rifle is the perfect DGR, every 375HH bolt gun needs to be modified to carry at least 5 down. 5. While a floor plate and detachable box magazine both use a mechanical latch, only the floor plate latch is reliable. Disregard the fact that every modern military rifle uses a detachable box magazine. 6. The Remington 700 is unreliable regardless of the fact it is the basis of the USMC M40 sniper rifle for 40+ years with no changes to the receiver or extractor and is the choice of more military and law enforcement sniper units than any other rifle. 7. PF actions are not suitable for a DGR and it is irrelevant that the M1, M14, M16, & AK47 which were designed for hunting men that can shoot back are all PF actions. 8. 95 deg F in Africa is different than 95 deg F in TX or CA and that is why you must worry about ammunition temperature in Africa (even though most safaris take place in winter) but not in TX or in CA. 9. The size of a ding in a gun's finish doesn't matter, what matters is whether it’s a safe ding or not. 10. 1 in a row is a trend, 2 in a row is statistically significant, and 3 in a row is an irrefutable fact. 11. Never buy a WSM or RCM cartridge for a safari rifle or your go to rifle in the USA because if they lose your ammo you can't find replacement ammo but don't worry 280 Rem, 338-06, 35 Whelen, and all Weatherby cartridges abound in Africa and back country stores. 12. A well hit animal can run 75 yds. in the open and suddenly drop with no initial blood trail, but the one I shot from 200 yds. away that ran 10 yds. and disappeared into a thicket and was not found was lost because the bullet penciled thru. I am 100% certain of this even though I have no physical evidence. 13. A 300 Win Mag is a 500 yard elk cartridge but a 308 Win is not a 300 yard elk cartridge even though the same bullet is travelling at the same velocity at those respective distances. | |||
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I had a record profit last year, and I think Ms AZWriter had one of her best as well (absolutely did when you consider the K1 I shot her way - we aren't married principally because of the marriage penalty). But that said, if you are in construction, this is worse than the Great Depression. Right now in Phoenix, you can't build a house for what you can buy one, foreclosure or no foreclosure. That won't last forever, but while it does last, there are bargains to had (you can easily get 10% rent on a house you buy here) for some, and endless pain for others. Govt spending cannot continue the way it has and there is going to be a giant resetting of expectations. Speaking of foreclosures, and not to get off the subject, but when it comes to all this crap about the wealthy not paying their fair share, how much revenue did the gov't pass up when they decided to forgive mortgage loan debt? In the past you would have been issued a 1099 for the debt you walked away from. That was one massive tax cut for the middle class - one that did nothing but accelerate strategic defaults. | |||
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If we are not in a depression now, what do you think will happen now that Standard and Poor has down graded the AAA rating for the US? Jeff | |||
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It will be interesting to see what happens to the markets Monday after the down grades. | |||
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Not looking good for Europe either: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/n...-out-of-their-depth/ | |||
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The Stock Market is driven by future expectations. It could fall because of those expectations on Monday and re-bound on Tuesday because investors think it is undervalued. But last weeks DOW 500 point sell off in one day had nothing to do with a fundamental change in the actually economy...it had to do with emotion and future expectations. The speed of trading in the last 15 years has made the market much more speculative. The S&P 500 is a better gauge than the DOW because it is a broader measure. The S&P 500 gained about 60% from Jan 2003 to Dec 2007. Does anybody think the economy grew 60%? or even anywhere close to that...of course not The S&P 500 fell 37% in 2008. Does anybody think the economy fell 37% in 2008? or even anywhere close to that...of course not Likewise, the S&P 500 increased 35% between 2009 to 2010. The S&P 500 doubled in value from 1995 to 2000, the NASDAQ quintupled. Those growths weren't a reflection of the actual economy either. Mike Never under estimate the internet community's ability to reply to your post with their personal rant about their tangentially related, single occurrence issue. What I have learned on AR, since 2001: 1. The proper answer to: Where is the best place in town to get a steak dinner? is…You should go to Mel's Diner and get the fried chicken. 2. Big game animals can tell the difference between .015 of an inch in diameter, 15 grains of bullet weight, and 150 fps. 3. There is a difference in the performance of two identical projectiles launched at the same velocity if they came from different cartridges. 4. While a double rifle is the perfect DGR, every 375HH bolt gun needs to be modified to carry at least 5 down. 5. While a floor plate and detachable box magazine both use a mechanical latch, only the floor plate latch is reliable. Disregard the fact that every modern military rifle uses a detachable box magazine. 6. The Remington 700 is unreliable regardless of the fact it is the basis of the USMC M40 sniper rifle for 40+ years with no changes to the receiver or extractor and is the choice of more military and law enforcement sniper units than any other rifle. 7. PF actions are not suitable for a DGR and it is irrelevant that the M1, M14, M16, & AK47 which were designed for hunting men that can shoot back are all PF actions. 8. 95 deg F in Africa is different than 95 deg F in TX or CA and that is why you must worry about ammunition temperature in Africa (even though most safaris take place in winter) but not in TX or in CA. 9. The size of a ding in a gun's finish doesn't matter, what matters is whether it’s a safe ding or not. 10. 1 in a row is a trend, 2 in a row is statistically significant, and 3 in a row is an irrefutable fact. 11. Never buy a WSM or RCM cartridge for a safari rifle or your go to rifle in the USA because if they lose your ammo you can't find replacement ammo but don't worry 280 Rem, 338-06, 35 Whelen, and all Weatherby cartridges abound in Africa and back country stores. 12. A well hit animal can run 75 yds. in the open and suddenly drop with no initial blood trail, but the one I shot from 200 yds. away that ran 10 yds. and disappeared into a thicket and was not found was lost because the bullet penciled thru. I am 100% certain of this even though I have no physical evidence. 13. A 300 Win Mag is a 500 yard elk cartridge but a 308 Win is not a 300 yard elk cartridge even though the same bullet is travelling at the same velocity at those respective distances. | |||
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Mike And I'd like to add that the Share market and what it does flows into normal day to day life because of this emotion. Shakari And because of the media and a fair bit of negative reporting, I think sometimes we almost talk ourselves into a recession. Not saying that is true in Europe or the US BUT I have seen it here where the media screws people's confidence. The stock market will go up and down like a yo yo over the next few months. I think the US is in for a torrid time unless Obama actually does something substantial instead of just talk. . | |||
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So what are the clever people putting their money into at the moment and If foreign currency, which one? | |||
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Until recently - last few days - Australia !!! LOL (We have done pretty well from the US going down). It looks like Gold is the big winner. Check out the latest price. Resources are still going up / trong, not sure how long for but China is still growing at 9% so while they keep doing that, I think we'll be OK. It's when the music stops in China and not enough chairs left for everyone that we will come back down the ladder fast. ie just look at the Aussie dollar in the last week, dropped back from 1.10 to 1.04 in a few days. That's my take on it. Edit Japan is the exception in Asia. . | |||
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We would be in a depression if the US government wasn't borrowing and spending an additional 1.5 trillion dollars a year over what it takes in. Once our national credit card is taken away, then the real adjustment will come. Whether or not it will be as bad as the depression of the 1930s is yet to be seen. I don't think it will, but it will be severe nonetheless. How deep and how long is a guess. In any case as I stated before...if you have the money then make the best deal you can now and go hunt Africa while you can. Don't assume you will get another chance. STAY IN THE FIGHT! | |||
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Its a recession for sure,no matter what the goof balls on TV say. I noticed that people with money are still hunting big ticket items but the normal guy that spends 3/4000.00 on deer,antelope,bear and small end safaris are not doing it anymore. They are holding on to their money to see what happens. This recession or whatever will not be over until people with money start making money off their money but with these interest rates that will be awhile.Hope the good guys survive!!!!!!   life member of SCI life member of NRA NTA Master Scorer SCI Scorer for Rowland Ward www.african-montana-taxidermy.com | |||
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This has turned into an interesting discussion! Ay predictions for the stock market after this new turn of events? How about a Christmas "rush?" Or do stocks normally tumble in the silly season? 375 Ruger- The NEW KING of the .375's!! | |||
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One of the things saving America at the moment is that China owns so much US Debt it is not funny and can't afford to have the US Devalue it's holdings. god help if the China changes how it exchanges the Yuan and the price of things from there increases. . | |||
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AZ writer said
Yes I understand what some of you said about saving a bit on daily rates etc. & that it is an experience & not just a hunt etc. To me some of that is still marketing speak....trying to sell up.... Given that there are fire sales around in all sorts of businesses and transactions, why not in safaris? Why are the game depts not reducing trophy fees. If you dropped 20% on trophy fees, you would sell more safaris and the local economy would benefit from it as the outfitters would all be busy. Yes I am aware that I can get an end season buffalo hunt for about $10k and add PG trophy fees on top. So for less than $20k I can have a PG Buffalo hunt including flights. Look at it another way - premium elk hunts in New Mexico have come down. Dall sheep & brown bear hunts have come down by 20% or more. Why not Africa? BTW - countries like India, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia etc. are doing fine. India felt the retail recession in 2008 but not any more. There is real (infrastructure and trade) growth of around 8%. 800 new BIG projects being started each month - 5 star hotels, big shopping complexes, sports stadium, Industrial complex etc. I was there in Feb (on business for the first time in 18 years) and it felt like a different country - not the India I grew up & started my career in. "When the wind stops....start rowing. When the wind starts, get the sail up quick." | |||
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The "rule of thumb" definition of a "recession" is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Technically, the recession ended over a year ago. Does that mean people's lives don't still suck? No....but it is not a recession. We just haven't seen substantial growth to make it feel like a real recovery. http://www.tradingeconomics.co...ed-states/gdp-growth  | |||
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I prefer to use a different method of tracking the economy. Example: August 8,2011 a full bag 21 day Tanzania Lion safari disappeared from my accounts. Jeff | |||
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I am an equine orthopedic surgeon. NO ONE has to have a horse to survive. People only WANT to have horses. People talk about trickle down economics and whether it is good or not...I don't know for anything but the equine industry. But...for the equine industry...it is the ONLY type of economics that there is. If people don't have extra money to put into their horses...they just don't spend it or at least as much. For $25K to $500K horses...which is the majority of my caseload...there are a helluva lot less of them right now...and our industry is definitely in depression rather than recession. I think we have bottomed out here in 2010...but we are still flat going into 2011. People with money MUST be able 1) to continue to make it, 2) must be able to make money with thier money, & 3) not be threatened of loosing their hard-earn dollar to fund a foolish government. My $0.02 FWIW. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Jeff: +1. When you add the prior losses of last week, I could do a lot of hunting on that. Hopefully, this will reverse itself before too long. Hopefully, the idiots running this country will wake up. This cannot go on. | |||
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The Dow was done 600 points today, but don't worry as Alan Mugabe Greenspan assures us that the US can never default since we can just print more money. We have nothing to worry about. Cheers and good luck. STAY IN THE FIGHT! | |||
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Truman defined it perfectly. " It's recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose your own." Stock market had been due for a major adjustment. The rise since March 2009 was hardly justified. The price of knowledge is great but the price of ignorance is even greater. | |||
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Gotta love Truman. Here's one I just heard: Our economy is so bad that television stations in Africa are showing "Sponsor an American Child for Pennies a Day" commercials. Mike Wilderness is my cathedral, and hunting is my prayer. | |||
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And the DOW plunges 600 points today. | |||
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"poof" my elephant disappeared today. If it keeps up i may have to shoot my horse  | |||
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The sixth biggest single day drop would be a bit more than an "adjustment" wouldn't you say? Jeff | |||
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I don't know what you call it, but I get less for my money now than I did a couple years ago, and all forms of petty crime in my town have gone up. true we're capital for auto-theft, but the unreported stuff you dn't hear about, I had a staff member file a police report this morning and they won't come out because it is policy not to on minor things like this; three vehicles gas siphoned, two catalytic converters stolen, and an antenna for good measure. In the last three months this is the 3rd time gas has been stolen, the plates off one vehicle, and the smashingin of windows and other damages to two of them. I'm hearing a lot more about "petty" crimes, I think it is all indicative of how the economy as a whole is doing, people out of work wanting money turning into predators, those still with jobs and working turning often times into prey. I think no matter what the media says things are not getting better and are limping along (I never thought the bailout was good specifically because you infuse it into a system that has major systemic issues, it does just this, acts as a crutch instead of letting things die off and something new be built on top of it) and will get worse before they get better. sadly I think my dreams of africa are on a very very back burner with no gas hooked up. I hope the PH's out there can survive until I can get there.  Red My rule of life prescribed as an absolutely sacred rite smoking cigars and also the drinking of alcohol before, after and if need be during all meals and in the intervals between them. -Winston Churchill | |||
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No Bwana, it is only one episode. The adjustment has just started. The market will settle after quite a few trading sessions up or down. The last 3000+ point rise was completely unjustified IMHO. The price of knowledge is great but the price of ignorance is even greater. | |||
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This followed Friday which was the 9th biggest drop in history... | |||
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I now wish I would have spent more last month in Zim. Will J. Parks, III | |||
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The Accurate Reloading Forums THE ACCURATE RELOADING.COM FORUMS Hunting African Big Game Hunting Has the recession and the US dollar affected Africa?
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