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Are 2009 safari prices going to come down?
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Picture of Andrew McLaren
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These comments on future hunting safari prices are made from my own perspective: A small Hunting Outfitter catering for the budget constrained ethical plains game hunter.

I have no idea of what effect the current economic turmoil will have on my basic costs of presenting a plains game hunting safari. It may be assumed that in South Africa there will be a decline in the amount of money spent on hunting [and other ‘luxury’ pursuits] by local hunters. This means less money chasing the same amount of trophy animals; and it should, like Buck Watson said, drive cost of trophy animals down? I sure think so. Are the other safari cost items like accommodation, fuel for travel, drinks and foodstuffs are all likely to rise? Of these it is only the actual hunting accommodation that can be regarded as true supply and demand cost driven, and may tend to be lower. Fuel, imported into South Africa in $ is likely to rise significantly, but global economy seems to want to drive fuel costs down. I simply don’t know! By and large I do not see that the cost that I have to pay for these “Daily Rate†items to offer a client a good plains game hunt in 2009 is likely to be very much different, but possibly slightly higher, from the 2008 costs when calculated in South African Rands.

Based on this one can state that, at the moment Andrew McLaren Safaris have already decreased it’s trophy prices by about 33% for all $ earning hunters. This is because I quote my prices in rand, and the R to $ exchange rate has gone from about 6.7 to over 10. This means that any trophy that would cost you $ 1500 a year ago will now cost only $ 1000 – or one third less in $ terms!

If, as this non-economic expert expects, the actual rand cost for trophy animals also decreases, the $ price will be reduced even more. The possible increase in costs in South Africa of the items that are part of the ‘Daily Rate’ can be largely offset by opting for a less luxurious, and hence lower cost, safari. All hunts arranged by Andrew McLaren Safaris are in fact true “custom safarisâ€, in that you get exactly what you ask for!

So despite some serious economic hardship possible, many will still be able to afford the life altering experience of an ethical plains game hunting safari arranged by Andrew McLaren Safaris.

Just my 0.02 cents worth.

In good hunting.

Andrew McLaren


Andrew McLaren
Professional Hunter and Hunting Outfitter since 1974.

http://www.mclarensafaris.com The home page to go to for custom planning of ethical and affordable hunting of plains game in South Africa!
Enquire about any South African hunting directly from andrew@mclarensafaris.com


After a few years of participation on forums, I have learned that:

One can cure:

Lack of knowledge – by instruction. Lack of skills – by practice. Lack of experience – by time doing it.


One cannot cure:

Stupidity – nothing helps! Anti hunting sentiments – nothing helps! Put-‘n-Take Outfitters – money rules!


My very long ago ancestors needed and loved to eat meat. Today I still hunt!



 
Posts: 1799 | Location: Soutpan, Free State, South Africa | Registered: 19 January 2004Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by shakari:
I think it's impossible to predict. The losses which are admittedly dramatic were losses on paper and they can be regained overnight or the same amount can be lost overnight again. I note that the markets rallied dramatically over the last few days but are now falling again. So who knows.



Steve these are not paper losses at all. Yes we are seeing volatility onn a daily basis reaching ridiculous levels but the fact is that overall the losses are down to fundamental issues.

The raising defaults in the mortgage market and the subsequent requirement to liquidate colateral at current market prices is not a paper loss. It is a reall loss.

The unwinding of all the synthetic vehicles that cot caught in the deleveraging trap is not a paper loss, those guys have lost their shirts.

Equities falling because unempoyment is rising, spending is down etc, isn't just a random number that gets quoted at the end of the news along with a couple of FX rates.

My point is that as yet two things are happening to the man on the street. The first thing is that the media portrayal of the situation is completely focussed on Equity and FX news. As important as they are the fundamental issues are in the leveraged fixed income and credit markets, (because there is no leverage available). This all means that your average Jo doesn't get the full picture.

The second problem is that the politicians have got involved. They are allocating bame while claiming to be the nations saviours. What they don't point out is that it was their policies and lack of regulation in the retail markets that caused this whole mess.

People were taking on debt agaist house price rises, and spending it on depreciating assets or one off expenses. People don't get the fact that if you take money out of a house as the price rises to spend on a holiday, then to go sideways you need to put the same ammount of money in when it goes down, leverage and deleverage.

Ayway, my point is that this mess is real and it isn't gonna change in a hurry.

Of course i don't have a crystal ball but I can still stretch to a couple of beers as some kind of wager mate... Wink

Rgds,
FB
 
Posts: 4096 | Location: London | Registered: 03 April 2003Reply With Quote
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I did this last year, long before this topic started, and doing it again....

Me thinks it is just fair to drop prices while the Rand is in such a bad shape. We all work on profit margins......why not drop your price to give the benefit to the client, keep your business going, and make the same dough..?????

Let's see if some of the guys that was hoping in a drop of prices get to book one of these hunts.....

Follow the link....

https://forums.accuratereloading.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/832100588/m/396108849


Charl van Rooyen
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Posts: 2018 | Location: South Africa,Tanzania & Uganda | Registered: 15 August 2006Reply With Quote
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There is a lot of truth to what a lot of people say here. While a safari operators costs may not come down, at the end of the day if there are hunts available for which costs are incurred whether a client hunts or not,deals will be available. That happened before the crisis. It will most certainly continue probably at an accelerated level.

I do the same thing in my business. During the slower time of the year, I take projects for reduced amounts. It is better to have $70,000 to come in on a project rather than $0 even if the normal price is $100,000 as my costs for staff, rent, insurance, etc are there whether I take the project or not.

The financial losses are devastating to those invested in the stock market. There will almost assuredly be a slow down in demand (as opposed to desire) for all hunting related things. I just got back from Zim Tuesday night. I was shocked at what had happened. My first thought was that had I known what was going to happen in the markets, I may not have been so quick to go.

For those willing to wait a bit, deals will be available. That was the case before the financial crisis. I expect that to be magnified.
 
Posts: 12134 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: 26 January 2006Reply With Quote
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All good points and FB, Ill be happy to buy you a few beers anytime - even without losing a bet. Wink Anyway, I'd guess that some guys will drop their prices, esp in RSA. As Infinito says if the exchange rate change, it's gonna affect prices, but as I also said, there's gonna be othe factors at work as well.......... such as what happens to the fuel price in RSA. Personally, I fail to understand why our fuel prices haven't dropped with the oil prices. Confused but they haven't. - At least, not in my area.

Other countries have other factors at work as well. Tanzania for example, effectively has everything in USD and considerablt higher overheads and subsequently has less leeway.

Assuming economies etc don't pick up considerably, my guess (and it's only a guess) is that although it'll vary from country to country, the guys at the lower end of the market will be offering the most discounts, the guys in the middle will see a change in their bookings where they have more shorter hunts and less demand on longer hunts (might get some discounts there) and the guys at the higher end of the market, both in quality of hunt and area etc will suffer the least change in bookings.

Individual countries will probably vary in 'discountability' as well. As I said, my guess is RSA will offer the most discounts, Botswana is a bit of an unknown quantity because there's some question about quota and permit availability for some areas such as the tribal zones in general and cat and elephant permits in particular.

In Tanzania, my guess is that the lower end of the market might get a bit cheaper but the upper end of the market probably won't.

But as I said, it's all gueswork and as I don't have a crystal ball, I'm not gonna make any surefire predictions. Wink






 
Posts: 12415 | Registered: 01 July 2002Reply With Quote
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Don't know about south Africa but all my costs are in US$ and the only thing may change significantly is the fuel price. When I consider that this years budgets were worked on US 84c per liter and the stuff is now $1.40 in harare...Nope, not going to see any drop in prices of dangerous game hunting until fuel falls below 8c a liter. My guess is that, certainly in Zimbabwe, prices in the prime areas will go up.

I did notice at SCI this year that it was easier to sell a $40,000 lion hunt than a $3000 plainsgame hunt. Already the US economy was hurting the "average" working man. Top end hunts sold as well as ever.
 
Posts: 3026 | Location: Zimbabwe | Registered: 23 July 2003Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by Ganyana:
I did notice at SCI this year that it was easier to sell a $40,000 lion hunt than a $3000 plainsgame hunt. Already the US economy was hurting the "average" working man. Top end hunts sold as well as ever.


This is very likely what it is going to come down to.

- mike


*********************
The rifle is a noble weapon... It entices its bearer into primeval forests, into mountains and deserts untenanted by man. - Horace Kephart
 
Posts: 6653 | Location: Switzerland | Registered: 11 March 2002Reply With Quote
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Take a look in the Discounted Hunts Forum. The rand will drive some prices down. With 5000+ safari companies in RSA and Namibia - expect contraction of the market and prices falling 20% or more over the next 3 years....
 
Posts: 10440 | Location: Texas... time to secede!! | Registered: 12 February 2004Reply With Quote
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To me the real point is that discretionary spending is being cut way back in most families, regardless of whether they are upper middle class or middle class. And I suspect that the majority of hunts are booked by these income classes. While it may be true that the top end hunts will still sell fine since the folks booking those hunts are not likely the people checking their Schwab account balances every couple of days, for many of the meat and potato dangerous game hunts like buffalo, leopard, tuskless elephant, PAC elephant, etc. hunts that fall in that grey zone between high end top dollar hunts and lower end plains game hunts, those bookings are going to going to fall off -- probably regardless of whether prices come down. And while I am an optimist by nature, the suggestion that this is going to turn into a boom in a few months is just pie in the sky talk. Let's see what happens at the shows in January, but my prediction is that bookings are going to be off significantly.

One barometer on the economy, my wife has started cutting back on her spending. That tells me the situation is serious.


Mike
 
Posts: 21882 | Registered: 03 January 2006Reply With Quote
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At least most people wanting to come to Africa earn their money either in dollars or euros.What about someone like me living in South Africa who earns his money in rands.A hunt in Zim of about $40 000 would have cost me a few months ago about 280 000 rands now the same hunt will cost me at this mornings exchange rate 432 000 rands that a big jump.Iam not the only person from South Africa who has hunts booked in the future in Africa.
 
Posts: 203 | Location: South Africa | Registered: 28 October 2007Reply With Quote
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I saw the Rand to Dollar was 10.39 at one point today.


Remember, forgivness is easier to get than permission.
 
Posts: 3994 | Location: Hudsonville MI USA | Registered: 08 June 2000Reply With Quote
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I have read all these posts and the only thing I am sure of is not a single one of you and that includes myself btw has any idea what is going to happen before this all washes out..Just opinnions and opinnions are like a$$holes, everybody has ONE. rotflmo

The only thing I am sure of is that most of us will survive this one and the next one if we live so long...It's the American way, when the chips are down we historically raise to the cause..Albiet we are weaker than I ever recall the people being, and that comes from years of prosperity, maybe a depression is needed to bring some back to reality..

I have survived the end of the big depression, several big recessions, lost a ranch, lost jobs, been broke and had to dig post holes, cowboyed, worked jobs that I hated but had to feed the family, I did whatever I had to do, and eventually prospered to a point of comfortable and once again that may be threatened, but I know how to handle it this time, you just do it!! Don't vote a Democratic Congress to help a Republican president,and look to the good Lord for help.


Ray Atkinson
Atkinson Hunting Adventures
10 Ward Lane,
Filer, Idaho, 83328
208-731-4120

rayatkinsonhunting@gmail.com
 
Posts: 42230 | Location: Twin Falls, Idaho | Registered: 04 June 2000Reply With Quote
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Shakari
Great points! The gas prices here in TX is right about $2.77 per gallon. That is down right now becasue less than a month ago we ere paying almost $3.50. I think in Alaska it is well over $4.00 per gallon.

But I agree that things are so unpredictable right now.

I will say this that my operator in Tanzania does not expect prices to drop in 2009. However if they do we will certianly pass along those savings to the client directly. Same for 2010 for those that have already booked.

I think it is also importnat to note that hunting cost here in the US have also increased as well. It is not just Africa!

I wish everyone could experience Africa the way we are fortunate enough to do!

beer


Ray Matthews
Matthews Outdoor Adventures
2808 Bainbridge Trail
Mansfield, Texas 76063
 
Posts: 321 | Location: Dallas | Registered: 18 June 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by KUDUBULL:
I think in Alaska it is well over $4.00 per gallon.

beer


$3.40 for regular in Anchorage and anywhere between $5.00-9.00 in the bush. Diesel is rediculous at $4.75 in Anchorage.


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Posts: 7626 | Location: Alaska | Registered: 05 February 2008Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by shootaway:
The future looks better than ever.It will be the end of the phonies and the phony economy. I hope I earn enough and hunt a CHIRISA lion with my 458 Lott.
 
Posts: 11651 | Location: Montreal | Registered: 07 November 2002Reply With Quote
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All I know (which is never much!) that I was considering another hunt for leopard or tuskless/Pac hunt ------or maybe some sort of plainsgame hunt and taking my two sons next year. I am not sure what to do now with the current financial turmoil going on.

It is spooky right now along with damn painful to what your retirement accounts go to crap! Mad
hopefully I can figure something out

maybe I will just sell the crap in my garage/home and go anyway---hunting is to damn important to miss out on coffee


nothin sweeter than the smell of fresh blood on your hunting boots
 
Posts: 746 | Location: don't know--Lost my GPS | Registered: 10 August 2005Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by larryshores:
There is a lot of truth to what a lot of people say here. While a safari operators costs may not come down, at the end of the day if there are hunts available for which costs are incurred whether a client hunts or not,deals will be available. That happened before the crisis. It will most certainly continue probably at an accelerated level.

I do the same thing in my business. During the slower time of the year, I take projects for reduced amounts. It is better to have $70,000 to come in on a project rather than $0 even if the normal price is $100,000 as my costs for staff, rent, insurance, etc are there whether I take the project or not.

The financial losses are devastating to those invested in the stock market. There will almost assuredly be a slow down in demand (as opposed to desire) for all hunting related things. I just got back from Zim Tuesday night. I was shocked at what had happened. My first thought was that had I known what was going to happen in the markets, I may not have been so quick to go.

For those willing to wait a bit, deals will be available. That was the case before the financial crisis. I expect that to be magnified.
I agree with you on this . An outfitter has to deal with costs just like any other buiseness man , and he has to make a profit to feed the family. But also as you and Andrew said ... You can sell that Kudu for 1500-2000$ and sell one hunt, or for a 1000 and poss get the price down enough for the old boys that just can't pay 2000 right now!
 
Posts: 60 | Location: Kilgore TX | Registered: 09 September 2007Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by shootaway:
The future looks better than ever.It will be the end of the phonies and the phony economy.People will have no choice but to spend only what THEY earn! I hope I earn enough and hunt a CHIRISA lion with my 458 Lott.
if you think the future looks better than ever, you are even more stupid than your previous posts indicated.


Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend…
To quote a former AND CURRENT Trumpiteer - DUMP TRUMP
 
Posts: 13620 | Location: Georgia | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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Another factor is what will happen with oil prices and yet another factor will be what individual Governements do about oil prices. - I notice that in recent weeks oil prices have dropped by about 50% and pump prices in the UK have dropped by about 30%. (Don't know about the US) - Here in my part of RSA, the pump prices haven't dropped at all.



Hi Shakari,

In Australia, or at least in NSW prices have remained the same... the Aussie dollar to night is about .67 cents again the yankie dollar. The Ford motor is laying off about 400 by Christmas time. We all have to be careful, the "Shitpits" lid is up in all our economies.

Cheers from Australia


"Travel Light, Travel Fast and carry a Big Bore"
 
Posts: 59 | Location: DUBBO NSW AUSTRALIA | Registered: 09 April 2008Reply With Quote
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Any rational operator working in Rand will reduce prices quoted in dollars by some amount less than the actual percentage depreciation of the currency (compensating, of course, for the degree to which he is reliant upon what are now price inflated imported goods needed to keep the business running). I think this is a good time to start looking for bargains in Namibia. This country was already a better deal than RSA IMO and those savvy farmers are gonna be looking to lure clients from other safari destinations right about now.

JMHO

tendrams
 
Posts: 2472 | Registered: 06 July 2008Reply With Quote
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The rand is moving by up to 80 cents a day - in both directions, lots of people fully expect it to come back to the R8-50 level but everyone everywhere is just guessing at best; right now anyone who publishes reduced (guaranteed) prices for next year may just put himself under if things go back as they were.
 
Posts: 256 | Location: Africa | Registered: 26 July 2007Reply With Quote
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Currency update: Michael Keenan – currency strategist, Standard Bank Global Markets Research

16 October 2008 23:09

ALEC HOGG: Michael Keenen is the currency strategist at Standard Bank Global Markets Research. Michael, I don't know if you have got any nails left - or in a job like yours I suppose it's the possible heart palpitations that must be creeping up on you?

MICHAEL KEENAN: Good evening, Alec. Yes, it's been a very busy day from all the calls from local players, importers, exporters, as well as some of the big funds abroad. Obviously they want some clarity as to where the currency is going to be going. Very difficult to say at this stage. There's obviously a lot of risk-aversion out there, and we are watching our screens minute by minute. A lot of volatility with the rand almost up to 11 bucks today, and then it recovered all the way back to the low trend, and we are back now at sort of R10.37. So a very volatile day, and a lot of uncertain people out there.

ALEC HOGG: Why all of a sudden did the rand take a hammering in the last 24 hours?

MICHAEL KEENAN: Well, Alec, really we saw a bit of improvement at the beginning of the week because the market perceived the recent measures that have been implemented by the Fed and a lot of the European central banks as a way of stemming the tide on the interbank lending and the financial turmoil. But then everyone soon realised that the global economic outlook looks pretty dire, and of course that bodes very ill for commodity prices - which is negative for our exporters as well as our resource-laden JSE. So it's really the global growth outlook which is now coming under the spotlight again. And I don't think it's a question of whether or not we are in a global recession - it's really a question of how long this recession is going to persist, and accordingly the rand weakened.

ALEC HOGG: What are you advising importers and exporters?

MICHAEL KEENAN: At the moment we obviously realise that there is a lot of panic built into this price - a huge risk premium. And the rand is undoubtedly undervalued on domestic fundamental grounds. So we still are of the opinion that if this global sentiment improves, if confidence can be restored, the rand will come back. If you look at market positioning, we are seeing that the market's terribly short rand at the moment, so we could definitely see an uncall of this rand weakness, and I think we could quite possibly be back around R8.50 before the year is out. But it's provided that confidence is restored - and at this stage people are still very fearful. So exporters - obviously those have been coming in quite aggressively today. But some of the importers as well should be cautioned not to panic because I do believe the currency will recover.

ALEC HOGG: Michael, in 2001 the rand doing the inverse - at one stage it bought you only US 8.3¢. Today it's just below 10¢, so we are still a way off the all-time low. Do you think we are going to challenge those lows?

MICHAEL KEENAN: I don't think so. Alec, the reason being that South Africa is a lot better positioned than what we were in 2001. Remember, we had the net open forward book on our hands - that's been eradicated. There've obviously been a lot of strides made both on the fiscal and the monetary side ... so fundamentally we are looking a lot more stable than in 2001. But it's the extent of the rise that's definitely equal to the kind of moves we saw in 2001. This is aggressive rand selling, and the magnitude might not be the same, but it's the rate at which it's happening which is of equal concern.
 
Posts: 256 | Location: Africa | Registered: 26 July 2007Reply With Quote
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I think some SA outfitters might be tempted to work on the (perhaps) overly simplistic basis of 'the rand has dropped by xyz% so we'll drop our prices by xyz%' - but I can't help but feel that may be a mistake for their long term future, because some products they're gonna need for the safari such as booze and fuel (for example) have not dropped by the same percentage as the rand has dropped against the dollar........ fuel here for example is still at the same price it was when oil was US$140 a barrel and imported goods will cost more in rand. Then again, it's up to them how they do it and none of my business. - Hope I haven't upset any of the outfitters here with that comment. - It was nothing more than idle speculation. Wink

Maybe some companies will start quoting rand prices instead of USD ones.

BTW, As I can't find my crystal ball I wonder if some kind soul who has one might be kind enough to let me have next week's winning lottery numbers please? jumping






 
Posts: 12415 | Registered: 01 July 2002Reply With Quote
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Wrath of plunging global stock markets haunting tourism sector

2008-10-17 09:58:33
By Perege Gumbo


The financial turmoil now ailing developed world will most directly hit Tanzania�s hospitality industry, a leading banker has predicted.

The head of Africa Research at Standard Bank�s economic division Yvonne Mhango said recently in Dar es Salaam that Tanzania would most likely suffer from diminishing number of tourists� flow as economic recession continues to stalk key visitors� source markets.

Such predictions were founded on still jammed credit markets which are barely budging though governments around the world are scrambling to prop up their failing banks and investors waiting for details on how bail-out plans would save banks` mortgage assets.

The expert was addressing �The Economist breakfast talk� prepared by Stanbic Bank in Dar es Salaam.

Again, if lending remains tight, it could cause more cash flow problems for private equity funds that rely on the credit markets and banks for short-term loans, part of which gets invested into lucrative tourism industry.

As things still remain profoundly dislocated in Tanzania�s traditional tourism markets of Britain, Germany, the United States, Italy, France, Spain and the Scandinavian countries, the future is gloomy for the industry unless dust settles.

The US has also recently emerged as important tourists� source for Tanzania, yet, with any luck, the government\'s quarter-trillion dollar cash infusion in banks will get them lending again, but the radical move won\'t quickly turn around the tottering economy.

Tourism earnings for Tanzania reached all time record of USD1 billion this year, but earlier estimates that more than 750,000 foreign tourists would visit the country this year, up from 719,031 who came last year are all now cast in doubt.
The fast growing tourism industry has overtaken agriculture as major foreign exchange earner.

Currently it contributes 17.2 per cent of the country\'s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 25 per cent of the total exports.

Responding to the what should be done by African governments Tanzania to enable private sector engage more vibrantly in economic development, Standard Bank�s Group Chief economist Goolam Ballim proposed enhanced democratisation of institutions which could reduce individuals� risks to invest in the various sectors of the economy.

This one should go hand in hand with efforts on putting in place conducive mechanism for markets to operate efficiently.

SOURCE: Guardian


Kathi

kathi@wildtravel.net
708-425-3552

"The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page."
 
Posts: 9538 | Location: Chicago | Registered: 23 July 2003Reply With Quote
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Some of you in the States may have noticed that airline stocks took a massive jump today. UAL was up over $12.00, all because of declining fuel costs. No bet on whether or not ticket prices will be adjusted downward, though
 
Posts: 11729 | Location: Florida | Registered: 25 October 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by Scott450:
but everyone everywhere is just guessing at best; .


very good point at this stage i wont try and predict anything.

do pricing as nornal when its hunting time and the rand stays as weak add trophies for free or give a discount then if it get stronger to like 6 to 1 you are losing but you are still fine what if the it goes to 14 to 1 then you as client have over paid again. times is to turbulant to grasp at straws at the moment. draw up a proper contract that protects client and outfitter then both parties is safe.

remember Newtons laws for every action there is a equal reaction


"Buy land they have stopped making it"- Mark Twain
 
Posts: 914 | Location: Burgersfort the big Kudu mekka of South Africa | Registered: 27 April 2007Reply With Quote
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Personally, I think prices will flatten or go down; or some hunts will go unsold.

We are not creating more hunters faster than we're losing them. We're pricing many of the hunters out of the African market.

I think all the outfitters are going to have to get more competitive, or watch their business dry-up some.

I've not booked for 2010. I am going to watch the market. Having the money to hunt is not the issue, but I would like to get as much bang for the buck as possible. Outfitters may need to look at their hole card, because the money isn't going to keep flowing if people have security concerns (job, debt, etc.)

If you've lost your job, your home, your kids college fund, and have credit card debt you can't pay off when the statement comes; and you still think you have to go hunting in Africa; you need to have the word "stupid" written on your forehead.

We'll see how it shakes out. I've got a two-year horizon, but I would like to see the price of oil back over $100. While that helps me; it probably hurts the majority. We all just have to look at our priorities, and make the decisions that make the most sense for us and our families. That applies whether you are an outfitter, agent, broker, or just a hunter.
 
Posts: 13919 | Location: Texas | Registered: 10 May 2002Reply With Quote
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When the Swiss Govt. has to bail out two of its largest banks, this is a crisis of world porportions!! The world has lived on borrowed money far too long and that has driven prices for cars, homes, yachts, safaris...and look at Double rifles...way out of perspective...and people still kept buying...many, many BEYOND their means and banks were playing everyone along like Las Vegas Roulette...
We are in for another big crash when the credit card game comes to roost on the banks...and it is coming soon!!
Wait and see, it's time to be vigilant and NEGOITATE EVERYTHING!! Spening like there is no tomorrow got us where we are....


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2691 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by Kensco:
Personally, I think prices will flatten or go down; or some hunts will go unsold.

We are not creating more hunters faster than we're losing them. We're pricing many of the hunters out of the African market.

I think all the outfitters are going to have to get more competitive, or watch their business dry-up some.

I've not booked for 2010. I am going to watch the market. Having the money to hunt is not the issue, but I would like to get as much bang for the buck as possible. Outfitters may need to look at their hole card, because the money isn't going to keep flowing if people have security concerns (job, debt, etc.)

If you've lost your job, your home, your kids college fund, and have credit card debt you can't pay off when the statement comes; and you still think you have to go hunting in Africa; you need to have the word "stupid" written on your forehead.

We'll see how it shakes out. I've got a two-year horizon, but I would like to see the price of oil back over $100. While that helps me; it probably hurts the majority. We all just have to look at our priorities, and make the decisions that make the most sense for us and our families. That applies whether you are an outfitter, agent, broker, or just a hunter.
while i am sure $100 plus/barrel for oil would please an oil rich nation like Indonesia. it sure FUCKS the rest of us!!!!!!!! whether i hunt or not, i still have to drive my truck.


Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend…
To quote a former AND CURRENT Trumpiteer - DUMP TRUMP
 
Posts: 13620 | Location: Georgia | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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We loose sight of it due to the increased oil prices, but there is a constant move to drive fuel prices up anyway; to reduce emissions...
Personally I am all for it as the planet cannot sustain the current output. We are currently at 1.4x what the earth can handle, much more and we are in shit.
In short your truck is either going to have to go green or go extinct before the prices become reasonable again.
The new hybrid GMC's have been very popular due to their better economy and the fact that you don't get quite a s many dirty looks from the guys driving around in their Prius.

There is also one other major thing to remember, that when we get rid of our oil dependency there will no longer be a need to aid or invade oil rich nations based on our needs, but rather based on their merit...A whole new world of political freedom and maybe a more peaceful planet
Time will tell
 
Posts: 423 | Location: Natal - South Africa | Registered: 23 September 2006Reply With Quote
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There are boom and bust cycles in everything and the Safari industry might/probably is at the tail end of their boom cycle.

What happens is that prices go back to levels not seen in 10 years. The stock market is at levels it first hit 10 years ago so Safari prices can surely get there too.

How? It really is simple, demand drops and more and more outfitters find it impossible to make a living and leave the business. The government struggles with less money from trophies and land concessions and keeps dropping both.

Private land in RSA drops in value as more and more outfitters sell there now nonprofitable hunting lands. Government also lowers fees to bring people back.

Basically every pressure that pushed things higher works the EXACT SAME WAY in reverse.

The only thing that remains the same is peoples unwavering belief that it couldn't happen to them. Tech company employees, housing buyers in Florida, Cali and Vegas in 2005, investors in Oct 2007, Investment bankers two years ago, etc. etc. Every one of them would have told you were out of your mind if you told them in advance what kind of downturn they were facing.

The hunting world lives on the buying power and health of the baby boomers and both have already peaked. Add to this the fact the US has been joined with the rest of the world in a total economic slow down and things are going to be slow for quite some time and quite possible never return to there baby boomer driven peak in the 2000-2007 period of time.

The slow down, while taking a little longer to reach the higher income, has hit home in a huge way. This is much bigger then the little guy getting pinched by gas and food prices. We have already seen art auctions start to colapse.

In the end the bright side will be that only the best managed most professional operations will survive leaving an overall better industry with the get rich quick guys forced out.
 
Posts: 952 | Location: Mass | Registered: 14 August 2006Reply With Quote
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Geoff, you may be a Yankee, but you've got a very accurate perspective on the situation.
 
Posts: 13919 | Location: Texas | Registered: 10 May 2002Reply With Quote
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as for me, one of those middle class guys; I really want to get a cape buffalo and a zebra skin rug. If the prices stay at a Bill Gates income level, I will wait until I can do the above for $10 grand. That money is sitting in the bank here. If they keep raising prices, I will watch and see which outfitters are not in business the next year.

NOTE TO ALL OUTFITTERS: nobody NEEDS to hunt Africa. Price us out and try and make a living off your investments in the market.

Africa is a fantasy for the middle class.

Rich
DRSS
Knowledge not shared is knowledge lost...
 
Posts: 23062 | Location: SW Idaho | Registered: 19 December 2005Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by shakari:
I think some SA outfitters might be tempted to work on the (perhaps) overly simplistic basis of 'the rand has dropped by xyz% so we'll drop our prices by xyz%' - but I can't help but feel that may be a mistake for their long term future, because some products they're going to need for the safari such as booze and fuel (for example) have not dropped by the same percentage as the rand has dropped against the dollar........ fuel here for example is still at the same price it was when oil was US$140 a barrel and imported goods will cost more in rand. Then again, it's up to them how they do it and none of my business. - Hope I haven't upset any of the outfitters here with that comment. - It was nothing more than idle speculation. Wink

Maybe some companies will start quoting rand prices instead of USD ones.

BTW, As I can't find my crystal ball I wonder if some kind soul who has one might be kind enough to let me have next week's winning lottery numbers please? jumping


Steve, as always your wisdom astounds me.......As well as your pussyfooting around the offence you give.......As I am the ONLY outfitter that posted a reduction on prices relevant to the drop in Rand/$ exchange, I must say I take your comment very personal. At least we do something about it.

You see, we have to have a SET price list in $'s for the next year, this year.........Any reduction in prices, based on a weaker Rand, is done in such a way that you get the same RANDS than you would have, and the Client pays less in DOLLARS. For both parties to benefit from this, ALL monies must be paid before the exchange rate settles back to a level where the outfitter feels he cannot support the discount anymore…I Guess Wendell Reich with all his experience must not know what he is talking about then, since he endorses this line of thought…….(not dragging Wendell into this)

This industry for some is a very serious way of making a living, and we do anything that we think that might give us an edge over some of our friends. It is not a nice to have to hunt cheaply every year, or to say “I’m a PHâ€, it is just a hard way of making ends meet Sir (although we enjoy every second of it)
If you hunted 250 days + a year, as a full time PH, and market the other 100 days (no holiday, just X-mas) a year, you would have known this of course………

I assume you are a PHASA member. Will you be at the PHASA 2008 AGM starting 16November? I would love to meet you in person…..we have a couple of things to discuss.....like gentleman of course.

I look forward to hear from you,

Charl


Charl van Rooyen
Owner
Infinito Travel Group
www.infinito-safaris.com
charl@infinito-safaris.com
Cell: +27 78 444 7661
Tel: +27 13 262 4077
Fax:+27 13 262 3845
Hereford Street 28A
Groblersdal
0470
Limpopo
R.S.A.

"For the Infinite adventure"

Plains Game
Dangerous Game
Bucket List Specialists
Wing-Shooting
In House Taxidermy Studio
In House Dip and Pack Facility
In House Shipping Service
Non-Hunting Tours and Safaris
Flight bookings

"I promise every hunter visiting us our personal attention from the moment we meet you, until your trophies hang on your wall. Our all inclusive service chain means you work with one person (me) taking responsibility during the whole process. Affordable and reputable Hunting Safaris is our game! With a our all inclusive door to door service, who else do you want to have fun with?"



South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
 
Posts: 2018 | Location: South Africa,Tanzania & Uganda | Registered: 15 August 2006Reply With Quote
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Infinito,

I wasn't aware you or Wendell had posted reductions related to the exchange rate or anything else! -So don't take it personally. Wink As you obviously have done so, maybe the term oops (from me) might apply. Wink - come to that, I didn't know you worked with Wendell either. (Or did I misunderstand that?) - The comment wasn't aimed at you, as I said in the post, it was just idle speculation.

As I also said, I wouldn't be at all suprised if some outfitters do start quoting in ZAR rather than USD because of the credit crunch and exchange rate turmoil etc.......... it'd actually make a lot of sense for some SA operators.

Yes, I am a PHASA member and have been for close to 20 years. Whether I'll get to the AGM or not, I don't know, but probably not. By the time I've travelled there, done the AGM and travelled back, it's almost a week out of my life and we're usually far too busy to attend and all that social side of mutual back slapping, internal politics (that always occur in any organisation) and fancy dress parties really aren't my style at all. I'm a great believer in and supporter of PHASA but don't usually attend the AGM.






 
Posts: 12415 | Registered: 01 July 2002Reply With Quote
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Oh, hold on, I've just seen you posted a link in a much earlier comment that goes to the special offers page....... I hadn't seen that before as I rarely visit that forum. - As I said, oops. Wink

Note to self, don't idly speculate! rotflmo






 
Posts: 12415 | Registered: 01 July 2002Reply With Quote
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I thought South Africa is a democratic country with freedom of speech??


"Buy land they have stopped making it"- Mark Twain
 
Posts: 914 | Location: Burgersfort the big Kudu mekka of South Africa | Registered: 27 April 2007Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by 375 fanatic:
I thought South Africa is a democratic country with freedom of speech??


Ja Rudi, tot 'n ou impliseer dat jy jou besigheid soos 'n idioot bedryf, dan gaan hy op sy moer kry.

Steve should be more careful when he posts about how other outfitters do business, even if it is just "IMHO".....

Of course this is a democratic country.....75% of the population votes for the ANC and as for freedom of speech.....just look at Zuma and his cronies to see what that statement can also mean......

Any case, I know you and Steve know each other, and my quarrel is not with you. As for Shakari, we know where we stand with each other....I just like to remind him of it every now and again...... Big Grin

Steve, it is hard to believe these are your views of the AGM if you are such a long term supportive member...... I will make formal excuse for you if you like, as we have about 15 min. in the beginning where we have the opportunity to do this. Do you want me to relay your views on the AGM to the meeting?

Your "oops" accepted, again.... it is just hard to believe you missed the link..... Wink Any case, me and Wendell do NOT do business together, and have not even traded e-mails or PM's.....I just respect him as a booking agent a lot (by reputation only), and he commented positively on the reduced hunt I advertised in the relevant section.


Charl van Rooyen
Owner
Infinito Travel Group
www.infinito-safaris.com
charl@infinito-safaris.com
Cell: +27 78 444 7661
Tel: +27 13 262 4077
Fax:+27 13 262 3845
Hereford Street 28A
Groblersdal
0470
Limpopo
R.S.A.

"For the Infinite adventure"

Plains Game
Dangerous Game
Bucket List Specialists
Wing-Shooting
In House Taxidermy Studio
In House Dip and Pack Facility
In House Shipping Service
Non-Hunting Tours and Safaris
Flight bookings

"I promise every hunter visiting us our personal attention from the moment we meet you, until your trophies hang on your wall. Our all inclusive service chain means you work with one person (me) taking responsibility during the whole process. Affordable and reputable Hunting Safaris is our game! With a our all inclusive door to door service, who else do you want to have fun with?"



South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
 
Posts: 2018 | Location: South Africa,Tanzania & Uganda | Registered: 15 August 2006Reply With Quote
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PHASA already know I'm not a usual attendee and if I want to tell them how I feel about something, I'm quite capable of doing it myself without anyone to help me...... but thanks for the offer.

If you think my statement was loaded, all I can say is that you seem to be suffering a degree of paranoia........ You seem to think every time someone in the business posts a comment, it's a criticism of you personally or your business...... and that's simply not the case.

I doubt I visit that forum once a month, certainly no more. After all, why should I care who's offering what? - Esp in SA where I don't operate much anymore.

If it's all right with you, Wink I'll also reserve the right to freedom of speech and although my comments weren't aimed at anyone, least of all you, I have the right to say whatever I like, and if you don't like it, you can lump it. I'm not here to promote my or anyone else's business. I post here because I enjoy it and for no other reason. Roll Eyes

Getting back on subject, I see the Rand is enjoying another rollercoaster day and as I said earlier, I'm beginning to think a lot of (SA) outfitters may well consider publishing prices in Rands for 2009. - I spoke to two today who are considering it.






 
Posts: 12415 | Registered: 01 July 2002Reply With Quote
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by shakari:
PHASA already know I'm not a usual attendee and if I want to tell them how I feel about something, I'm quite capable of doing it myself without anyone to help me...... but thanks for the offer.

If you think my statement was loaded, all I can say is that you seem to be suffering a degree of paranoia........ You seem to think every time someone in the business posts a comment, it's a criticism of you personally or your business...... and that's simply not the case.


If it's all right with you, Wink I'll also reserve the right to freedom of speech and although my comments weren't aimed at anyone, least of all you, I have the right to say whatever I like, and if you don't like it, you can lump it. I'm not here to promote my or anyone else's business. I post here because I enjoy it and for no other reason. Roll Eyes
QUOTE]


Good for you and your views......no paranoia, just maybe a bit prickly when it comes to YOU and your posts and views in an industry you ( as you said yourself)are not active in any more.... You said "oops" , so surely you must know you offended me in some way.....

No worries Stevo, I'm not crying my eyes out, and you know I was being sarcastic about the PHASA thingBig Grin.......

Enjoy your freedom of speech, just do not get your knickers in a twist when others enjoy theirs...... Wink


Charl van Rooyen
Owner
Infinito Travel Group
www.infinito-safaris.com
charl@infinito-safaris.com
Cell: +27 78 444 7661
Tel: +27 13 262 4077
Fax:+27 13 262 3845
Hereford Street 28A
Groblersdal
0470
Limpopo
R.S.A.

"For the Infinite adventure"

Plains Game
Dangerous Game
Bucket List Specialists
Wing-Shooting
In House Taxidermy Studio
In House Dip and Pack Facility
In House Shipping Service
Non-Hunting Tours and Safaris
Flight bookings

"I promise every hunter visiting us our personal attention from the moment we meet you, until your trophies hang on your wall. Our all inclusive service chain means you work with one person (me) taking responsibility during the whole process. Affordable and reputable Hunting Safaris is our game! With a our all inclusive door to door service, who else do you want to have fun with?"



South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda
 
Posts: 2018 | Location: South Africa,Tanzania & Uganda | Registered: 15 August 2006Reply With Quote
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