Since the dollar has gained over 50% in value vs the Rand in the last year and fewer people are booking hunts, are the prices going to come down next year?

This chart shows what one US dollar is worth (in Rand) over the last year.

quote:

Originally posted by Fjold:
Since the dollar has gained over 50% in value vs the Rand in the last year and fewer people are booking hunts, are the prices going to come down next year?

Nope!

Due to economic conditions, outfitters will have fewer clients overall and will be forced to spread their overhead across fewer clients, which means higher prices.

Frank
IMO, I would not count on it until 2010. If it happens then!

No.

Nope! Spoke to a well known RSA operator this morning. He is tightening his belt but not lowering prices.

I spoke with Adam yesterday and we both think that folks that are waiting for some great deals to open up maybe waiting a long time. My advise is to book ahead as usual allowing your to pick the dates you want and get the choice of limited quota animals. You may also be able to solidify your daily fees against an increase in the future.

I do think there will be some discounted prices from operators that are marginally hanging on anyway but these are not the guys I would want to hunt with.

Mark

I think outfitters and booking agents are deceiving themselves if they truly believe that the economy is not going to dry up demand for hunts resulting in a need to relook at prices. We are in the most volatile financial times since the Great Depression, retail spending for September was down by almost twice what was expected and it was the largest decline in almost four years, auto sales are tanked, home sales are tanked, 401k values are sliding, etc. In the face of all of that if folks are expecting bookings to remain steady or increase for discretionary income items like $10-20K hunts, I think they might need to think again about their business assumptions. Just my $0.02.

I'm with you Mike. I was going to put a deposit down on an elephant safari this week, but I'm having serious second thoughts. I'm probably going to hide and wait a while longer.

Mike is right, something has to give and the only thing that will change that is a huge and sudden rally in markets.....to much wealth destroyed. The extreme is a decline of about 40% last years high to last weeks low, that means we need a 66% rally to get back there. Stocks are important to most folks who can plunk down $10-$20K plus expensive incidentals. For the African hunting scene to continue to have large numbers of hunters participating, prices will have to come down.

One alternate outcome is that a number of outfitters go out of business, those remaining do not drop prices but cater only to the truly wealthy.

While we are still tiny and very new in the market we are particularly looking at value for money hunting options for 2009/2010. While the big guys probably have enough well off clients to fill their quota I believe it will be the start up operators and mid sized operators that may start to offer discounts.

For me personally my motivation is slightly different to others in that my company goal is ultimately to protect wilderness by whatever means available. I see hunting as the premiere wilderness protector and as such have set up the company to offer value for money, ethics based walk and stalk hunting. We want to build the industry and bring more ethical hunters to Africa each year. For this to be effective prices need to stay within the limits of the Average Joe.
So in short, those of your booking with big operators are probably not going to see any difference if not a rise as normal, but if you are feeling the squeeze then focus your efforts on less extravagant hunts that give you a different experience but put you in touch with nature on a unique level.

With what's been happening in the markets over recent weeks, I think anyone who has a crystal ball good enough to predict what's gonna happen next or any other year is a very lucky man indeed.

A few months from now the world economy could be enjoying the biggest boom ever or it could be further down the toilet than it was a little while ago.

quote:

With what's been happening in the markets over recent weeks, I think anyone who has a crystal ball good enough to predict what's gonna happen next or any other year is a very lucky man indeed. Wink

A few months from now the world economy could be enjoying the biggest boom ever or it could be further down the toilet than it was a little while ago.

yup

I agree with MJines .....

My crystal ball says the US will be in a recession for this quarter and the first quarter of 2009 and that is the best case scenario. If Obama wins and the Democrats raise taxes then it could be much worse. I prepare over 600 tax returns a year and none of my clients are spending money on luxuries. They are all holding back. If Safari operators don't recognize this then they are drinking Kool Aid. The smart ones will start agressively pricing their hunts NOW! They are not enough rich Arabs, Chinese or Russians to make up for the Western market.

Ok. The Stock Market wiped out of 8 trillion in wealth in the last two months, and it is not over yet and spreading all over the world. And it is not going to affect hunts?

I know a very wealthy hunter that was going to book a major hunt in 2009, and did not because of the markets. I am also sure that when the average guys 401 loss sinks in they will cut back on small hunts. I find it hard to believe it will not affect hunts. I would not be suprised if the cancellations for next year do not start after the first of the year.
Next we have to deal with President Obama wealth distribution who knows what will happen.

I Broker Corporate Jets for a livng, usually first in and last out of a recession, and since Sept the prices have sunk, new orders have slowed to a crawl, and positions are comming up for sale from all over the world, since with the low dollar. Matter of fact for most of the year foreign buyers where keeping my market moving.

Anyways just hope it is another cycle, prices of houses, jets, boats, cars and Kudu where all getting too high.

I think BigBoreCore nailed it. The prices have simply wiped the smaller guys who were on the fence about spending that kind of money in the first place. $20k buffalo hunts are great, but not if you only sell two of them. I think the price HAS to fluctuate with the market, or there will be many fewer shots fired across the African continent. Mzuri bahati! BN

I believe the world financial situation is in serious trouble. The rich are fine as they can sustain 50% drops in markets and not really feel it. However, the rest of us are in for 3 to 5 years of no growth and recession before the banks and the markets earn their way out of the mess with an infusion of government money.

However, the banking system is in chaos, investors are pulling out of markets and putting money in anything they perceive as safe. Oil is way down. Natural gas is tracking oil. Opec cannot control the oil price.

We will see the economies of several countries seriously impacted - Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran, US, Russia, UK and others. The dollar will rise against the euro because, right now, the dollar is more stable, even with the currency/credit crisis.

All of that to say, vacation travel, entertainment, discretionary hunting trips and the like will see a serious drop over the next three to five years. It will take that long to sort out the mess we are in. Do not expect a quick recovery or a recovery to the levels in the various stock markets for several years. The cash just isn't out there.

The safari operators in RSA and Namibia can be the most flexible due to the structure of their costs. Tanzania, Botswana and Zambia will be hit with less hunters due to the costs and the inflexibility of the fees and concession expenses. Zimbabwe is a "floater" as everything there is negotiable and they are better equipped to handle the chaos in pricing - they are used to it.

I would suspect that pricing will move down and not up as the various entities, be they governments, landowners or concession holders see the available crop of hunters drying up.

Airline tickets should go up for awhile then drop in response to lower oil prices and lack of passengers. The airlines cannot win for losing.

I hope this is not the case, but economics are hard to ignore....

quote:

Originally posted by tradewinds:
Anyways just hope it is another cycle, prices of houses, jets, boats, cars and Kudu where all getting too high.

Well said!!!

Mike,
I really don't know what booking agents have to do with this debate..We sell at the outfitters price, it is not within our control..All we get is a commission and that comes out of the Outfitters stated pricing, not added on...

What is going to happen is anybodys guess, it sure as hell doesn't look all that good to me, but I have been here before, I have taken up my belt and made less money, but I survived and I will survive this next one, but I would not want to be a new booking agent just trying to get into this business..Those booking agents that only do this part time and have jobs will survive or more than likely just quit, thats what I would do in their case, and most don't have a clue anyway and will be better off..Besides most of them are booking to scam free hunts anyway.

I don't see Safari pricing going down until the s--t hits the fan and its FORCED down...As to African hunting the guys with bucks will always hunt. Those poor souls that struggle to put enough money away to go on a safari will suffer the most, but hey thats true in every since of the word, thats life in the real world, not just hunting..The rich get richer and the poor get poorer and every politician will promise a chicken in every pot, Obama has already made those promises that he knows he cannot keep..

I don't think anyone will escape the crunch and if Obama gets into the presidency with a Democratic congress I think his program is a one way street to a full blown depression and this bail out money and now realistate bail out money is the tip of that broken system the politicians have created..We been sold out gents..All of us that didn't get into debt with loans we knew were bad and worked hard to get where we are and have been frugal most of our lives will pay the taxes for the assholes they are bailing out, and it probably is a must, least we all suffer but it like a bad kid and you haveing to sell the house to get him out of jail.

Will we survive, most certainly...It may even make men out of a bunch of flabby pink cheeked wusses and the up and coming generation that thinks the world owes them a living..The last one did, soup lines and 15 hr. a day labor jobs made men..The kind of men we need to run a government, not the trash we have up there...

That's my soap box for today, stay tuned as I get real wired from time to time..

quote:

Will we survive, most certainly...

Amen Brother

Rand hit 10.7-1 USD today. I am sure prices will be dropping. HAH!

I would like to hear from the outfitters, what % of last years hunters were from the US as compared to the rest of the world.

Maybe we don't constitute as much of the hunting market as we think !!!............JJ

AIG executives spent thousands during hunting trip
By IEVA M. AUGSTUMS – 2 hours ago

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — A handful of top executives from American International Group Inc. spent thousands of dollars during a recent English hunting trip, even as the New York-based insurer asked for an additional $37.8 billion loan from the Federal Reserve.

The news comes as New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday told the insurance giant to do away with golden parachutes for executives, golf outings and parties while taking government money to stay afloat.

Cuomo said he has the power under state business law to review and possibly rescind any inappropriate AIG spending as long as the Federal Reserve is propping up the huge insurer with almost $123 billion in loans announced since Sept. 16.

"This was an annual event for customers of the AIG property casualty insurance companies in the U.K. and Europe, and planned months before the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's loan to AIG," company spokesman Peter Tulupman said Wednesday morning.

In a prepared statement later in the day, the company said, "We will continue to take all measures necessary to ensure that these activities cease immediately. AIG's priority is to continue focusing on actions necessary to repay the Federal Reserve loan and emerge as a vital, ongoing business."

AIG officials declined to say which AIG executives attended the trip, which reports have said racked up an $86,000 tab. News of the hunting trip surfaced just days after AIG received an additional $37.8 billion loan from the Federal Reserve, on top of a previous $85 billion emergency loan granted last month.

The company said last week it would stop "all non-essential conferences, meetings and activities that do not clearly maximize value and service given the current conditions."

Last month, and just days after the U.S. government stepped in to save AIG with a $85 billion taxpayer-funded loan, the company picked up a $440,000 tab for a week-long retreat at a posh California resort for top-performing insurance agents.

Lawmakers investigating AIG's meltdown said they were enraged that executives of AIG's main U.S. life insurance subsidiary spent a lavish amount on the retreat, complete with spa treatments, banquets and golf outings. Last week, White House Press Secretary Dana Perino called the event "despicable."

At that time, AIG issued a statement saying that the "business event" was planned months before the Sept. 16 bailout and that it was held for top-producing independent life insurance agents, not AIG employees. Of the 100 attendees, only 10 worked for the AIG unit hosting the event, it said.

The insurer said Chief Executive Edward Liddy sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson "clarifying the circumstances" of the event. In the letter, Liddy assured Paulson that AIG is "reevaluating the costs of all aspects of our operations in light of the new circumstances in which we are all operating."

The insurer then said it canceled a future California retreat that was to be held later this month.

Regarding the recent hunting trip, "We regret that this event was not canceled," Tulupman said Wednesday.

Shares of AIG fell 37 cents, or 13.2 percent, to $2.43 in trading Wednesday.
Hosted by Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

I don't know about anyone else, but as for me being 69 years young and living off of my IRA and other investments, I have advised my broker to reduce my monthly withdrawal by 1/3.

What this means is that I have tightened my belt and all of my discretionary spending has stopped until this turns around. For the time being it's gonna be beer mom and the radio. period.

Prices will come down a lot!!!

Outfitters have surfed the boom years increasing their margins.

Most of them have a fat to burn!!

However, its never the same for everybody. Some have signed contracts paying very high prices for leases or concessions and these will probably suffer.

For the past nine years I have supplemented my retirement income by ghost-writing and editing books for some of the best-known hunters of the 20th Century.

There were two such books scheduled this year, but both clients asked to postpone their projects until 2009 or later because their businesses are in such awful shape.

I'm scheduled to work with another Weatherby Award winner starting in January, but I'm not holding my breath.

These are men who easily fit Ray Atkinson's description as "guys with bucks," mind you, and the fee I quoted for writing their books was less than some of the hunts they've made recently.

Like the rest of us, they're cutting back, too.

Bill Quimby

I took a beating like everyone else but I have my mind made up to get back to Africa. It may take a couple years but I will be back.

I don't know if listed prices will come down anytime soon but I'll bet cancellations will increase and dates will open up.

Have not had the time to read all the above, and have not had the time to do the research for the coming safari year--- but!----can anyone show a time period in the last 5,10, or 15 years when prices were lower going forward from one year to the last? Probably not.

If you are waiting for safari prices to drop, or for a true deal anywhere in the safari industry, good luck to ya! I doubt you'll find one. If I'm wrong, I'll be a happy fellow and the first to cheer on the client who bags one.

I love to hunt Africa and I do so each year. In doing so I knowingly sail a sea full of pirates, do the best to defend myself, and pay the going rate to feed my passion.

It's a decision we all have to make. I'm in the process of making mine as we speak.

Regards....

Atkinson, you hit the nail on the head!! I've struggled to go on every safari I've been on but you can bet your sweet ass I'm not going to stop going until my buddies are carrying me to my grave.
My dad lived through the depression and he always said you shouldn't have a right to vote in this country unless you paid taxes that support this country.

quote:

Originally posted by TWL:
can anyone show a time period in the last 5,10, or 15 years when prices were lower going forward from one year to the last? Probably not.

By the same token, can anybody show such a combination of truly shitty economic conditions in the last half-century?

Definitely not.

Jefffive

Let's cut the crap. Everyone is affected with the state of the economy. If you can afford it, you can go. But a lot of people will not be able to go on safari next year or buy expensive guns, or cars or boats or whatever...and that's a simple fact.

Operators who book very high end clients might not be too affected but everyone else will. How are hunting operators any different from any other business that suffer when times are bad.

There will be a lot of bargains next year. If I was a hunting operator I would slash my prices now and try and sell my hunts before the shows start next year.

quote:

Originally posted by Atkinson:
d..We been sold out gents..All of us that didn't get into debt with loans we knew were bad and worked hard to get where we are and have been frugal most of our lives will pay the taxes for the assholes they are bailing out, and it probably is a must, least we all suffer but it like a bad kid and you haveing to sell the house to get him out of jail.

Will we survive, most certainly...It may even make men out of a bunch of flabby pink cheeked wusses and the up and coming generation that thinks the world owes them a living..The last one did, soup lines and 15 hr. a day labor jobs made men..The kind of men we need to run a government, not the trash we have up there...

well said
in this country, -a crack addicted wacked out street thug crimminal living off welfare can vote and his vote counts the same as yours--------something wrong with that

Its the law of supply and demand, large supply low demand = lower prices any way you want to look at it . I'm sure some of the big guys will hold out longer . But the smaller outfitters ,aka plains game ect-- will have to or find another way to make a living. Just look at the recent cancellations. Speaks volumes I for one was planing a 14 day PG hunt in SA for 09,but as of 3 weeks ago thats out the window for now.... My dad grew up during the 30s said he could get a coke ,hamburger and a ticket to the show for a quarter the ony problem was he didn't have the quarter!!

Maybe the extra 5k that McCain promised us for our healthcare will cover it. Or maybe Obama will re-invest it for us better.

Will the outfitters drop their prices ?

The ones that have too pay commissions to booking agents will most probably not, as they are larger by comaprison and correspondingly greedy,

Every year at this time we review our prices with a absoltue thumb suck too what the future holds, I have lowered the prices some years and raised them some , at this moment the way the dollar is going My prices will drop considerably,

Why, from the start of my business 10 years ago, I always maintained profit is why we do it, but IMHO some of my collegues were and are still too high, I do not drive new Land Crusiers every year , or holiday at Disneyland , or buy a new double rifle on a whim( or even buy one at all Chris know I cancelled my buy beginning of the year when one of the trucks burnt out)

So yes us that are happy with smaller margings will most surely drop prices and or keep them the same,

These comments on future hunting safari prices are made from my own perspective: A small Hunting Outfitter catering for the budget constrained ethical plains game hunter.

I have no idea of what effect the current economic turmoil will have on my basic costs of presenting a plains game hunting safari. It may be assumed that in South Africa there will be a decline in the amount of money spent on hunting [and other ‘luxury’ pursuits] by local hunters. This means less money chasing the same amount of trophy animals; and it should drive cost of trophy animals down? I sure think so. The other safari cost items like accommodation, fuel for travel, drinks and foodstuffs are all likely to rise? Of these it is only the actual hunting accommodation that can be regarded as true supply and demand cost driven. By and large I do not see that the cost that I have to pay for these “Daily Rate†items to offer a client a good plains game hunt in 2009 is likely to be very much different, but possibly slightly higher, from the 2008 costs when calculated in South African Rands.

Based on this I can state that, at the moment I have already decreased my trophy prices by about 33% for all $ earning hunters. This is because I quote my prices in rand, and the R to $ exchange rate has gone from about 6.7 to over 10. This means that any trophy that would cost you $ 1500 a year ago will now cost only $ 1000 – or one third less in $ terms!

If, as this non-economic expert expects, the actual rand cost for trophy animals also decreases, the $ price will be reduces even more. The possible increase in costs in South Africa of the items that are part of the ‘Daily Rate’ can be largely offset by opting for a less luxurious, and hence lower cost, safari.

Just my 0.02 cents worth.

In good hunting.

Andrew McLaren

quote:

economy

I predict a 20% drop in African hunts in 09 and a 40% drop in booking for 2010 hunts. You can't take trillions of dollars out of the economy with out pain! The lucky few that can afford to go will find great deals if they willing to look for them. Most working class hunters will have to hunt closer to home for a few years.

RSA: Interest rates and inflation are both very high, economically times are tougher than they have been in years. Apart from a few big operators most PH's and outfitters live a very middle class existence. It is no secret that they make money mainly out of the animals shot. True demand will drop for animals if less hunters come out but it will take a while for that to kick in.99% of guys cannot even begin to think about reducing daily rates.

Zim:It is tough enough from a logistical and cost point of view to organise and maintain a safari company in the rapidly crumbling/almost destroyed economy.You may get the odd deal but wholesale reductions in prices are highly unlikely. Most outfitters in Zim would probaly just reign in their operations and sit out the bad times, selling what they can when they can, but not at a loss.

Botswana:Companies acquire concessions for a set number of years, most quotas are small and prices are high. Big$$ low volume hunting is the norm, prices may come down but they will still not be "cheap" by any means. Most guys who hunt in Botswana dont scrimp and save for a few years to do so.

Zambia: Companies are locked into U$ concession and licence fees that are dictated by govt. The planning going into acquiring and succesfully running an operation on this model is more complex than most believe.The fundamentals wont change so i cannot see the prices coming down by any significant margin.

Tanzania: Fairly similar to Zambia in terms of govt regulated concession and licence fees.

Charter fees: You don't have to be a wizard to work out that these will definitely not be coming down any time soon

That is my 2 cents on the countries whose systems i know. Others more knowledgeable than me may have a different view.On a whole i cannot see any major reductions.Rand slips, trophy fees should get reduced but marketing costs soar with the weakened currency and the guys advertising rates and trips to overseas becoming way more expensive.Apart from RSA all fees are U$ based anyway so they will not change.

If you are rubbing your hands in glee at the thought of cheap hunts i suggest that maybe you slow down, the reality is that hunting in Africa will never be cheaper than it is now. Yes there may be good deals from time to time, but value for money it is still the best there is on planet earth.And as for those deals, be very careful of who they are coming from - desperate times lead to desperate measures and as in any industry there are unscrupulous operators who will take your money and run or deliver sub standard facilities/opportunities.

I think it's impossible to predict. The losses which are admittedly dramatic were losses on paper and they can be regained overnight or the same amount can be lost overnight again. I note that the markets rallied dramatically over the last few days but are now falling again. So who knows.

Another factor is what will happen with oil prices and yet another factor will be what individual Governements do about oil prices. - I notice that in recent weeks oil prices have dropped by about 50% and pump prices in the UK have dropped by about 30%. (Don't know about the US) - Here in my part of RSA, the pump prices haven't dropped at all. I don't know if that's the case throughout the country, but it certainly is the case in my part of the Lowveld. - Perhaps some of the other SA members can comment on their area?