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. . . more winning. So much beautiful winning. Some say the most winning ever. WTI 1/20 75.89 WTI 4/11 61.48 Plunging oil prices force US oil industry to consider cutting production Plunging oil prices force U.S. oil industry to consider cutting production, jobs Seeking Alpha Despite President Trump's exhortations to "drill, baby, drill," U.S. shale oil producers are facing their most serious crisis since the pandemic, as the sudden oil price selloff triggered in part by President Trump's trade war has pushed parts of the sector to the brink of failure, industry executives warned this week. Oil markets have been hit with a potential "double whammy" of declining demand from a tariff-induced economic slowdown combined with new supplies, with OPEC+ announcing last week it planned to raise production faster than expected in the coming months. Analysts say Trump's decision to leave tariffs on China, the world's biggest oil importer, will continue to loom over global crude demand prospects. The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week sharply cut its estimate of U.S. crude prices to $63.88/bbl for 2025 from a prior forecast of $70.68/bb, and lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth for this year by 400K bbl/day to 900K bbl/day. Tariffs also will make it more expensive to buy steel and equipment, which could further discourage drilling unless oil prices rise substantially. Benchmark U.S. crude has fallen nearly 14% so far this month, leaving the price below the level many producers in Texas say they need to break even and even causing concern that the industry could be forced to idle rigs. Rystad Energy said this week that many U.S. shale producers faced breakeven costs of ~$62/bbl when debt servicing and dividend payments were included, and "in reality, even a company operating on $40 breakeven acreage would be inclined to slow down activity when prices fall below $65/bbl, as their level of dividend coverage would be at risk," Rystad said. Energy prices remain well below levels producers say they need before they substantially increase activity and will not get there any time soon, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's latest quarterly survey, which said the energy firms surveyed need to see oil at $85/bbl and natural gas at $5.10/MMBtu before they significantly ramp up drilling. "If oil does go into lower $60s or upper $50s, public independents that are already capital disciplined are going to have to cut their budget and cut rigs," said Bryan Sheffield, founder of energy investors Formentera Partners and former Parsely Energy CEO. "If prices get sub-$60 and stay there, we'll see a definite drop in the rig count," Marauder Capital managing partner Roe Patterson said. "They've definitely opened the door for the OPEC countries to gain market share here, and it's an inadvertent, self-inflicted wound." While it may cost under $40/bbl to drill in the best parts of the Permian Basin, new well drilling in North Dakota would require oil prices at ~$57/bbl, according to Wood Mackenzie, meaning operations in those basins would be more at risk at current price levels. Mike | ||
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I generally stay out of these economic discussions for all the obvious reasons, but I'm having a hard time taking umbrage here. Low cost energy is good for everyone but the oil industry. Trumps interest in "drill baby drill" is an interest in increasing domestic production and lowering energy costs. If current prices aren't enough to profit today, eventually that'll change I think? It seems to me like the oil industry has been a real whiplash the last couple decades. War drove the price bananas and then again with corona. As I understand it, oil has always been boom or bust. If trump can make domestic drilling available, and then when it makes sense to drill it's done, I don't see the downside. Any domestic drilling is in competition with foreign oil right? Less money for vlad? Less money for The Taliban? I prefer domestic oil production because they play by our rules more than Vlad and Saudi Arabia. That doesn't mean I'm particularly loyal, I think domestic energy sticks it to my fellow Americans every chance it gets. | |||
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boom and bust -- it's the oilfield, baby -- it's almost like you are new - and then the article goes on to compare shale oil vs normal drilling-- it's almost like using hyperbole -- WOW -- thanks for the new info, jines.. oil prices go up and down .. almost like it's on a schedule -- here's a HINT, when it's cheaper to buy than "build" you buy -- it's business 101 -- again, it's almost like you are NEW to the energy business ... of course you aren't -- you are just raising cain because you are bored -- target price for the patch has been, ,for at least 2 decades, 72.50 -- when it's below that, wait -- opinions vary band of bubbas and STC hunting Club Information on Ammoguide about the416AR, 458AR, 470AR, 500AR What is an AR round? Case Drawings 416-458-470AR and 500AR. 476AR, http://www.weaponsmith.com | |||
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Trump would( and could) fuck up a one car funeral procession…. Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend… To quote a former AND CURRENT Trumpiteer - DUMP TRUMP | |||
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drill baby drill and stop buying it from canada ... | |||
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Say what you will, but the GOP & trump have been running on "drill, baby, drill, as the answer for the last decade. So, are you just educating yourself to the fact that it's all bullshit? | |||
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Close enough, i wonder, have you been tested, or did you just become the village idiot by default? opinions vary band of bubbas and STC hunting Club Information on Ammoguide about the416AR, 458AR, 470AR, 500AR What is an AR round? Case Drawings 416-458-470AR and 500AR. 476AR, http://www.weaponsmith.com | |||
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. . . please don’t quote Jeff, it ruins the respite some of us enjoy by virtue of having him on ignore. You do surely realize, the only reason he shows up here is to incite and act condescending. Perhaps you should try putting him on ignore too. I commend it. Mike | |||
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Cheap energy is an economy driver and the target goal. Keeping the oil market high does not accomplish that. Reducing “lift-costs” is the goal of drill-baby-drill. What is the number one driver of lift-cost??? Regulation! The goal is cheap energy through reduced regulation. The oilfield runs on lagtime. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Regulations have been place. Nothing deserves or should be completely unregulated. That pies not explain what this thread observes. No, we should not let oil have free and unrestricted reign. Interesting, gas prices came down significantly during President Biden’s term. | |||
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you might look up the prices of gas over time .. heck, see for yourself https://www.statista.com/stati...d-states-since-1990/ opinions vary band of bubbas and STC hunting Club Information on Ammoguide about the416AR, 458AR, 470AR, 500AR What is an AR round? Case Drawings 416-458-470AR and 500AR. 476AR, http://www.weaponsmith.com | |||
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 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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The oilfield is WAY over regulated. Decreasing regulation will incentivize exploration, production, and transportation (of oil). Cheaper energy drives the economy. Drill-baby-drill revolves around decreasing regulation. Contrary to the Little Lord of Louisville’s random thoughts…the Biden regime was extremely heavy-handed with the use of regulation to disincentivize all 3 mechanisms of the oilfield. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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That conclusionary statement is not an argument. Yeah, how dare we have rules in place and enforce to prevent another BP. | |||
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That job was already taken by Biden | |||
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Will we be drilling in the sand off the coast at Mar-a-Lago (asking for a Santa Barbara friend)... TomP Our country, right or wrong. When right, to be kept right, when wrong to be put right. Carl Schurz (1829 - 1906) | |||
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 Another BP huh? Do you think government regulations prevents such? Private enterprise does this job. The man that came up with the solution and made equipment to prevent those blowouts is actually a fellow hunter and AR Member. He lives in Texas and I owe him an enchilada dinner and a beer. He reads the ARPF…maybe he will chime in. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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I might as well, he just a waste of electrons when he posts, 90% of which are just insults anyway. | |||
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With no tools to attack the message, attack the messenger opinions vary band of bubbas and STC hunting Club Information on Ammoguide about the416AR, 458AR, 470AR, 500AR What is an AR round? Case Drawings 416-458-470AR and 500AR. 476AR, http://www.weaponsmith.com | |||
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Yes, your fib is not an argument.. I gave you facts opinions vary band of bubbas and STC hunting Club Information on Ammoguide about the416AR, 458AR, 470AR, 500AR What is an AR round? Case Drawings 416-458-470AR and 500AR. 476AR, http://www.weaponsmith.com | |||
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Not a fib. Dr. Easter’s statements are self serving and conclusionary. That is not an argument. Enjoy sticking up for him. His creditability before the body politic is long gone. Your post does not refute the argument that a sale off occurred due to Trump’s trade policy’s Nor should we agree to let an industry like oil development self-regulate. Dr. Easter nor you have provided no argument that the industry is over regulated. To do so, one would have to identify specific regulations and provide a cost-benefit analysis. This regulation is causing X limitation upon production. X increase in price. The harm it seeks to prevent is Y, and here is why Y is not being prevented or the risk of is not justifiable. No, neither of you have made an argument. | |||
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My credibility trades on the open market. The Little Lord of Louisville sucks the government tit. The oilfield is over regulated and has been since the early 1980s. Maybe our fellow hunter, fellow Texan, and private enterprise guy who did correct the problems with the BP blowout will chime in. Government had ZERO to do with preventing similar in the future. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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You are as intellectual bankrupt as you are morally bankrupt. You have made no argument in this whole thread. | |||
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Look in the mirror. The Little Lord of Louisville may savvy whiskey but leave oil to the Texans. I have made the only actual argument. Cheap energy drives the economy. Decreasing life costs is the way to get there. How do you decrease lift costs??? Decrease regulation. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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You still haven't said what regulations on the oil industry are unreasonable. I guess the Exxon Valdez was over-regulated... | |||
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Clown, you still have not made an argument. No, I will not. | |||
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How does any regulation over or under prevent a drunk ship captain? I think you and I understand the North Slope to be pretty nutty when it comes to job stopping regulations. How about we look at it this way: what regulations does the USA have in place that make Vlads or the Saudis oil more profitable than ours? When identified, how can the US modify to better compete? Our foreign oil purchases are paying for Vlads and the Caliphates aggression. We should knock that off. | |||
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. . . true that. Mike | |||
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You mean NOBODY he worked with noticed he was an alcoholic before the accident? Granted, Exxon paid the price--but still. I've worked around alcoholics, and you can usually smell it on their breath. | |||
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I think I was poorly saying no further or less regulation would make a difference there. Hazelwood was already breaking laws and it didn't matter. | |||
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I doubt it. BP pulled the drilling mud and filled the pipe with salt water with lower specific gravity to get on to the next hole sooner. The pressure at the bottom of the string was about the same as chamber pressure for a black powder Colt. Things went south as soon as the methane hit the diesel generators. The blowout preventer did not prevent, it had been modified awhile earlier. Regulations may not have helped that mess. The drillship operator made some unfortunate decisions that probably would have been outside the province of new regulations. It's not clear to me whether there were extant regulations that were not followed. There was an alternate proposal to stop the flow delivered to BP's chairman by a Florida Senator, which may or may not have worked, 200 tonnes of a low-melting alloy with specific gravity high enough to go to the bottom against the flow. The solution that did work was a masterful piece of drilling, just jawdropping to the uninitiated. TomP Our country, right or wrong. When right, to be kept right, when wrong to be put right. Carl Schurz (1829 - 1906) | |||
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Yes, regulations work. Especially, when the rules are followed and enforced. | |||
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Be interesting to hear which regs in general are adding to the price to supply oil. Give me a home where the buffalo roam and I'll show you a house full of buffalo shit. | |||
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The cost of oil. The price does not necessarily reflect the total cost, just the quarterlies... TomP Our country, right or wrong. When right, to be kept right, when wrong to be put right. Carl Schurz (1829 - 1906) | |||
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Yes regs add to the cost which in turn is added to the price. So yeah, indirectly they add to the price. So which regs add to the cost per barrel and how much is this cost? My guess is he's too ashamed to admit what they are as the regs are probably detrimental to the environment; maybe immunity from the effects of spills, leaks, etc. Give me a home where the buffalo roam and I'll show you a house full of buffalo shit. | |||
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I don't know but suspect that the cleanup of the Valdez cost more than the regulations that should have prevented the accident. TomP Our country, right or wrong. When right, to be kept right, when wrong to be put right. Carl Schurz (1829 - 1906) | |||
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I'm not willing to accept Russian or Saudi environmental standards for safeguarding the lands and waters of the USA. | |||
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What additional regs could prevent a drunk ship captain and a crew that covers for him? The Exxon Valdez crew were already in numerous violations. | |||
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It's been too long and I can't remember. Didn't the captain have some prior problems? Like multiple drunk arrests? I guess they could have asked about that and made a decision about letting him loose with a giant oil tanker? | |||
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I've tried to explain this to no avail to some of my friends (I get a portion of my income from the ground) and I've come to the conclusion that informed facts are no match for uninformed opinion. | |||
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