Last thing we need is another hurricane and looks like one is headed straight for Florida.

I am heading for a European red beer and boar hunt leaving September 13th.

Not fun.

Mike

Hope you get out in time Mike,be a shame to miss that hunt.

Batten down the hatches and stay safe!!!!!

.

If it hits here that is about the time it will be here.

The 13th, coincidentally, is the day we are supposed to have all of our new furniture delivered to the ranch. Now we wonder.

I am an old FL Cracker. I grew up on the coast. I have been through many of these. Most don't scare me. This one does.

quote:

Originally posted by JTEX:
Batten down the hatches and stay safe!!!!!

.

Yup

I am stocked with water, food, batteries, propane and coal for cooking.

I have too much damn ammo and guns at home.

Need to pack up my office and move it to the backup. The office is in a old house and surrounded by oak trees. I am prepared for it to get destroyed in a hurricane.

Need to figure a way to store gasoline safely.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
If it hits here that is about the time it will be here.

The 13th, coincidentally, is the day we are supposed to have all of our new furniture delivered to the ranch. Now we wonder.

I am an old FL Cracker. I grew up on the coast. I have been through many of these. Most don't scare me. This one does.

It should Larry.

21 years back in Grad school I was hired on one summer to do consultation on hurricane evacuations.

Traffic pattern optimization is very similar to dynamic programming in economics. I could crunch thru the number and create simulations.

This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by larryshores:


This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

We are in Jacksonville--rode out Matthew last October but as we are inland a few miles, we really didn't have it all that bad.

The coast got torn up some, but it could have been a lot worse.

We've only been in Florida 3 years. As a long-time resident, do you have any prediction for NE Florida as regards Irma?

Good luck in Cocoa--

quote:

Originally posted by Nitro Express:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by larryshores:


This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

We are in Jacksonville--rode out Matthew last October but as we are inland a few miles, we really didn't have it all that bad.

The coast got torn up some, but it could have been a lot worse.

We've only been in Florida 3 years. As a long-time resident, do you have any prediction for NE Florida as regards Irma?

Good luck in Cocoa--

I am in Orlando and Cocoa - my guns and dog are in Orlando so I am going to ride it out in Orlando.

I was in NYC for 15 years so I missed out a few storms.

I did get to see Sandy in NYC and it was scary. I lived on Central Park West and there were trees knocked down in Central Park and Natural History Museum.

After 9/11 a firm I worked for had downtown offices and win their close connections to NYPD and NYFP was able to access the office in 2 days.

After Sandy a firm I consulted could not get to their office for 6 weeks. Nature can be far more brutal.

This one scares me.

I have all supplies other than a generator. That is now a 2018 project as I don't have a fuel source in place.

Loading up my truck and car with gasoline. Will drive by dog car for next week.

Hang tight this one could get ugly.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
If it hits here that is about the time it will be here.

The 13th, coincidentally, is the day we are supposed to have all of our new furniture delivered to the ranch. Now we wonder.

I am an old FL Cracker. I grew up on the coast. I have been through many of these. Most don't scare me. This one does.

It should Larry.

21 years back in Grad school I was hired on one summer to do consultation on hurricane evacuations.

Traffic pattern optimization is very similar to dynamic programming in economics. I could crunch thru the number and create simulations.

This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

Yup.

As you no doubt know, the front right quadrant is the worst. If it goes up the west coast, guest what happens to the ranch? Guess what happens to all of those multimillion dollar houses in Naples and elsewhere along the coast.

Two of my clients insure the risks of public entities in FL. One is based out of Ft. Myers. Their years ends are 9/30. Ouch is all I can say.

quote:

Originally posted by Nitro Express:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by larryshores:


This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

We are in Jacksonville--rode out Matthew last October but as we are inland a few miles, we really didn't have it all that bad.

The coast got torn up some, but it could have been a lot worse.

We've only been in Florida 3 years. As a long-time resident, do you have any prediction for NE Florida as regards Irma?

Good luck in Cocoa--

With all due respect sir, Matthew was the equivalent of a BB gun. Irma is the equivalent of a hydrogen bomb. There is NO comparison.

I have lived here my entire life in FL. I grew up on the water. I have been through so many of these things that I cannot count them. Evacuations were an annual occurrence. I rarely ever get phased by these things. This one scares me and scares me a lot.

As far as NE FL goes, it all depends on the path. It could be nothing or it could be really bad. There is still major uncertainty but it looks more and more like the west coast will get hammered. If it decided to cross the state at the right place, you could still be in for a rough ride.

Stay smart and Safe Larry. Take care of your lovely bride. Prayers that it shifts course.

quote:

Originally posted by Hogbreath:
Stay smart and Safe Larry. Take care of your lovely bride. Prayers that it shifts course.

Thanks Rick.

We always get a small mountain of things in June. We have a generator that will run the entire house n 30 seconds. All of the vehicles are full of gas. We have about 30 gallons in reserve.

All we can do is watch and wait.

quote:

I have all supplies other than a generator. That is now a 2018 project as I don't have a fuel source in place.

Probably too late now, meaning they'll be sold out, but run down to Lowe's or HD and buy a 5Kw generator, and buy 10 or 20 5 gal gas containers while you're there or at Walmarts. Gas can always be recycled into your truck. Smaller Honda generators are more expensive but much better and one will power a refrigerator or freezer. Best way to do it is to cool them down at night and let them slower warm up in daytime. We were without power for 17 days back in the early 2000s when an ice storm hit NE Texas. Not fun, but doable. Think using a hot plate, backyard propane grills can be life savers.

[QUOTE]With all due respect sir, Matthew was the equivalent of a BB gun. Irma is the equivalent of a hydrogen bomb. There is NO comparison. QUOTE]



I know, that's what I said about Matthew and Harvey: compared to Harvey, Matthew was a summer shower.

I'm hearing Irma is now tied for second place as the strongest hurricane ever to form in the Atlantic.

No matter what path it takes, people are going to be in big trouble.

And now another storm, named Jose, is forming behind Irma.

I guess we'll know better by Thursday what the likely path will be.

Yup.

I can tell you this. Even the first responders are being evacuated from Key West.

It appears more like it is heading up the west coast. That is really bad news for them.

Too little info available at this time. I'd say the chances of it having a major impact on Orlando is low and nearly zero for Jacksonville. Of course, I'm not any better than the weather liars, so take that with a grain of salt. I have some close, elderly native Floridians relatives right on waterfront near W Palm Beach, I'm urging them to consider a trip to NE Texas in the very near future, like now.

Re: generators

It's nice to have at least one of the "intelligent" small generators as the others can easily burn up TVs, computers, etc. Don't ask me how I know.

If you still have water, you can take one of the 5KW gen sets and hook it up to your water heater and in a few minutes you can shower. Takes a minimal amount of electrical knowledge but is not difficult. As we are on a water well, I'd have to hook up to well, first, then switch to water Heater, then back to well. Kind of a PIA, but worth it when you count time from last shower in days. BTW it was cold as hell when all this was going on, rarely getting above 30 degrees, but we have an "Earth Stove" in living room which helped heat home and you can cook on it.

It's been so long now I am vague on exact gas consumption of 5Kw gen sets, but I'd put it at close to 5 gal/day, so it takes a fair amount of gas reserve to keep them going. One reason you don't power refrigs, freezers, etc 24/7.

Blimey, it's a bit relentless at the moment for you guys!

Take care and all the best from this side of the pond.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:
Too little info available at this time. I'd say the chances of it having a major impact on Orlando is low and nearly zero for Jacksonville. Of course, I'm not any better than the weather liars, so take that with a grain of salt. I have some close, elderly native Floridians relatives right on waterfront near W Palm Beach, I'm urging them to consider a trip to NE Texas in the very near future, like now.

I don't know. It is certainly early. This looks way worse than 2004 where we got hit 4 times. This place was a war zone. It was bad. Really bad.

I have property elsewhere in the state. My ranch is 6 miles off the Gulf.

Think about the poor souls on St. Johns and St. Thomas USVI. They will feel the full brunt of the 185 mph winds. Plenty of Americans there.

I should have bought a generator and fuel source. I got lazy. I should have put a 500/1000 gallon propane tank underground for the pool spa and tied it into a generator.

I could have bought a generator but without a lot of fuel it would do little for 3 refrigerators or an ac.

I have 4 gas cylinders. Bags of coal and wood chip for a traeger. Tons of water and supplier and way to much ammo.

I am also preparing for my uncle and aunt who dont even have a lantern.

I stockpile water and food early in the year.

Hunting and fishing - always have a ton of dual use gear. Flashlights, sat phone, lanterns, rope, bungee cords and on and on.

I am just glad I bought insurance this year and decided not to self insure myself.

I did go buy an outdoor stove and a cheap clearance shrimp/fish boil kit. I will use that to heat water if needed.

Next two days I have to pack up my office - this has serious risk of being crushed by a oak tree.

Otherwise hunker down and ride it out. I really want to go shoot my boar too.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
If it hits here that is about the time it will be here.

The 13th, coincidentally, is the day we are supposed to have all of our new furniture delivered to the ranch. Now we wonder.

I am an old FL Cracker. I grew up on the coast. I have been through many of these. Most don't scare me. This one does.

It should Larry.

21 years back in Grad school I was hired on one summer to do consultation on hurricane evacuations.

Traffic pattern optimization is very similar to dynamic programming in economics. I could crunch thru the number and create simulations.

This storm is the nightmare storm. If it follows it's path (European and other models are converging) and comes up along Marco island and Naples. It will be a disaster for those countries - Lee and collier.

Naples is like 4 ft above sea level.

This could get ugly - really ugly.

Mike

Yup.

As you no doubt know, the front right quadrant is the worst. If it goes up the west coast, guest what happens to the ranch? Guess what happens to all of those multimillion dollar houses in Naples and elsewhere along the coast.

Two of my clients insure the risks of public entities in FL. One is based out of Ft. Myers. Their years ends are 9/30. Ouch is all I can say.

Larry

There are 1,223 $1 mil plus homes for sale in Naples and 230 in Orlando area. Orlando/Orange County is 4 times bigger than Naples. whole Orlando msa is probably 5-6 times bigger.

This storm could have some serious financial impact to the insurance industry and unlike Houston there ain't a out for flood damage and flood insurance.

Most insurance policies in Florida have a high deductible for insurance so the pain will be all over the place.

You really much rather get hit on the Atlantic than the gulf - the ocean shelf Is much deeper and the surge would be much lower on the Atlantic.

Mike

I hear you.

A couple of years ago, a client had a board meeting in Naples. We stayed the weekend. We decided to charter a boat and go for a little cruise. Damn that place is astounding. Those houses are insane. Quite a few a well above $20 million. I told Mary Lynn that this place is a accident waiting to happen. I hope that I am not about to be proven right.

If I lived in those waterfront houses in Naples, I would be preparing to get the hell out.

You are right about the hurricane deductible. Most do not understand this nor do they understand that homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage, even that caused by a hurricane.

We live 55 miles north of the Gulf at the westward bend of FL. Needles to say, we are anxiously waiting to see if Irma goes east up the Atlantic or west up the Gulf. We are laying in supplies either way. Hell, we had a quick rainstorm last night that put .55" of rain on the ground in 5 minutes, according to my electronic weather station!

It has taken a turn. It seems more likely that south Florida will get hit. If it continues that easterly turn, we may still get it just not as bad.

It has been interesting to observe what has happened to society. There is a massive portion who think they are going to die because there is no bottled water. Getting tap water into containers NOW is not even a possibility to them. What has happened to people? I have to laugh at them.

I just don't understand how someone with financial resources can live in Florida and not have backup generators available. Makes no sense to me.

AFA 3 full refrigerators, they won't be full for long and will miraculously shrink to one if you're pouring gas in a generator to power that one. Half the stuff we keep in our refrigerators (cold drinks, water, beer) don't have to be refrigerated to start with. A lot of the other stuff can be made into a soup/stew which will keep fairly well with reheating.

One outlier forecast track has it going up E coast far off of coast to E of Bahamas. Maybe Florida will get lucky, let's hope so.

The 11 AM update from the NHC is probably better for FL as a whole but worse for some areas. At 8 AM Monday, we should have a major hurricane ( 110 MPH or more) just off the coast from where I live. I live 35 miles from the coast in a straight line.

Gato, I agree. I got a serious generator after the 2004 debacle of being hit 4 times in a row. When the power goes, the generator comes on in 30 seconds. In another 30 seconds it will run the entire house.

My house is more in harms way. My ranch is safer.

Now for the wait.

quote:

I just don't understand how someone with financial resources can live in Florida and not have backup generators available

Me too. I ran pretty much my whole house....minus A/C and water heater during Ike and Rita with a 5kw Generac.

Refrigerator, water well and two deep freezes, put a small window unit in and it was livable. I know have a 15kw Diesel and can run the whole house and 1) A/C system at a time on 14 gallons a day.

When a storm comes into the Gulf, I lay in the diesel.......burn it in the tractors for the next year......


Wish you all the best, stay safe!

.

If it misses Florida it ain't like it is going out to sea.

Track shows the east coast getting whacked which is better for the state as a whole than the west coast.

Next year I will have a generator with 1000 gallon propane tank.

I will also be running a shelter given everyone will be at my place.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
It has been interesting to observe what has happened to society. There is a massive portion who think they are going to die because there is no bottled water. Getting tap water into containers NOW is not even a possibility to them. What has happened to people? I have to laugh at them.

I was thinking the same thing. Watching the news I was asking myself if they turn the taps off before the storm.

quote:

Originally posted by J_Zola:

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
It has been interesting to observe what has happened to society. There is a massive portion who think they are going to die because there is no bottled water. Getting tap water into containers NOW is not even a possibility to them. What has happened to people? I have to laugh at them.

I was thinking the same thing. Watching the news I was asking myself if they turn the taps off before the storm.

90 percent of people don't prepare.

Water does not expire - water is not expensive.

Same thing about batteries and lanterns/flash lights.

I load up on lanterns when Academy has a close out - keep them in my fishing closet on the beach. No one in my family asked me this week why I have 8 lanterns and 20 flashlights cause they all got a couple yesterday.

Hunting and fishing gear has dual use.

No one mocks the cost of a yeti/artic/high end cooler and ability to hold ice for 3 days when a hurricane comes.

I gave a bag of coal to a friend from the dog park whose alternative was collecting stick and newspapers to burn in his grill.

Mike

What happens at times is that tap water becomes unsafe . This is due to malfunctions and/or lack of electricity running the machines that purify the water. It is not an uncommon occurrence in a serious hurricane.

We have had 10 cases of bottled water since June in anticipation of hurricane season. In addition, we will fill large containers with tap water before Sunday. For example, a 120 quart Yeti cooler. It just ain't that hard. Of course, I am an old FL cracker who has been through many many of these. A little common sense goes a long way.

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
What happens at times is that tap water becomes unsafe . This is due to malfunctions and/or lack of electricity running the machines that purify the water. It is not an uncommon occurrence in a serious hurricane.

We have had 10 cases of bottled water since June in anticipation of hurricane season. In addition, we will fill large containers with tap water before Sunday. For example, a 120 quart Yeti cooler. It just ain't that hard. Of course, I am an old FL cracker who has been through many many of these. A little common sense goes a long way.

My uncle and aunt (she is wheelchair at best) had 12 1/2 liter bottles. I stocked them up.

Yeti makes a nice water storage container.

I also have a 40,000 gallon pool and have little shame taking a bucket and bathing outside if needed.

Mike

According to news report, Branson and some of his Virgin airlines team are going to ride out a direct hit from Irma on his private island in the British Virgins. He's got a lot more faith in his builders than I would have. He should be about in the middle of it now.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:
According to news report, Branson and some of his Virgin airlines team are going to ride out a direct hit from Irma on his private island in the British Virgins. He's got a lot more faith in his builders than I would have. He should be about in the middle of it now.

Thought about doing that for a second this evening as I put the storm shutters at my place on cocoa beach. Then claustrophobia set in and I ran out.

But Gato at last you will appreciate I drove 185 miles collection at the boudin and bringing it to my central bunker. I will have a lot of stuff go to hurricane Irma but not my guns or boudin.

Mike

quote:

But Gato at last you will appreciate I drove 185 miles collection at the boudin and bringing it to my central bunker. I will have a lot of stuff go to hurricane Irma but not my guns or boudin.

Boudin goes with anything, but I'm not sure about hurricane sauce.

I sincerely hope you were smart enough to bring at least a rifle or two along with ammo for same and several pistols with plenty of ammo and extra clips.

None of my business but I'd strongly consider getting wheelchair bound relative and bringing her to your place, if you think it is safer, before storm hits.

Hang in there buddy, and if you lose your home, I've got one you can use in NE Texas.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:

quote:

But Gato at last you will appreciate I drove 185 miles collection at the boudin and bringing it to my central bunker. I will have a lot of stuff go to hurricane Irma but not my guns or boudin.

Boudin goes with anything, but I'm not sure about hurricane sauce.

I sincerely hope you were smart enough to bring at least a rifle or two along with ammo for same and several pistols with plenty of ammo and extra clips.

None of my business but I'd strongly consider getting wheelchair bound relative and bringing her to your place, if you think it is safer, before storm hits.

Hang in there buddy, and if you lose your home, I've got one you can use in NE Texas.

I am not worried about the house or the beach place. I am worried about the office and the old oak trees surrounding the house. It has few valuable in it and everything is backed up on google cloud.

I have 52 rifles, 17 handguns, 10'shotguns and 40k rounds of ammo. Also have dozen Nfa items.

I cannot bring my aunt home - all her equipment is at her place. I will stock pile with more water, food, lanterns, flashlights etc. I will leave a yeti with ice for them. My cousin (her son) is less than 1/2 mile from her and I am 3 miles. He gets back from China tomorrow night.

Thanks for the offer to crash if everything goes pear shaped in Florida.

Mike

quote:

I cannot bring my aunt home - all her equipment is at her place. I will stock pile with more water, food, lanterns, flashlights etc. I will leave a yeti with ice for them. My cousin (her son) is less than 1/2 mile from her and I am 3 miles. He gets back from China tomorrow night.

Mike:

I'm sure you've evaluated her situation, but you're going to feel bad if she dies. The chances of your cousin getting into Miami are nearly zero and she will likely be alone. Not to mention a 1/2 mile under hurricane conditions can be a very long way. Hard to swim or avoid debris in a wheelchair. I suggest you reconsider her location. I sure as hell would not want to be a non-mobile old lady alone in a hurricane.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:

quote:

I cannot bring my aunt home - all her equipment is at her place. I will stock pile with more water, food, lanterns, flashlights etc. I will leave a yeti with ice for them. My cousin (her son) is less than 1/2 mile from her and I am 3 miles. He gets back from China tomorrow night.

Mike:

I'm sure you've evaluated her situation, but you're going to feel bad if she dies. The chances of your cousin getting into Miami are nearly zero and she will likely be alone. Not to mention a 1/2 mile under hurricane conditions can be a very long way. Hard to swim or avoid debris in a wheelchair. I suggest you reconsider her location. I sure as hell would not want to be a non-mobile old lady alone in a hurricane.

My cousin is less than 100 yards as the crow flies - he has to jump a fence. Driving its another subdivision. He should be back in Orlando tonight.

My uncle is there with my aunt. She just has specialized bed, bathroom etc so moving her to a new living location is hear impossible.

Let's hope this storm stays at sea - that is good for Florida but bad for sc and ga.

Mike

quote:

My cousin is less than 100 yards as the crow flies - he has to jump a fence. Driving its another subdivision. He should be back in Orlando tonight.

I hate to harp on this, but they are shutting down all flights into and out of Miami as I write, Orlando probably won't be far behind.