Quote:

---

So, what you are telling me is that non-residents applying for 10% of the permits have the same odds of being drawn as residents applying for 90% of the permits??? Got to call BS on that one!

---

Quote:

---

they should have that info available and broken down into figures for residents and non-residents!

---

Quote:

---

do you really think we are stupid enough to believe that

---

I refuse to vouch for your level of stupideness. Others can deternmine that on their own. Hopefully, they'll go easy on you and consider where you're from. -TONY

Quote:

---

That didn't answer the question as to anyone can hunt these elk without a license. -TONY

---

Quote:

---

including animals from the deer and antelope families that landowners have introduced into this state. Includes, but is not limited to feral hog, Aoudad sheep, Axis deer, Elk, Sika deer, Fallow deer, Blackbuck antelope, Nilgai antelope, and Russian boar. Exotic fowl refers to any avian species that is not indigenous to this state, including ratites.

---

Quote:

---

You can certainly 'vote with your pocketbook', but the real problem is the way decisions are made within the legislature and game departments.
Certain business interests (mining, ranching, agriculture, tourism) have a lot of influence over how the public can access public lands.
While non-residents paid a huge proportion of the game depts. budgets (I think most game depts. have to pay for themselves, with no support from the general fund), they received a very small slice of the pie.
Just as Congress can rewrite laws held to be unconstitutional by the federal courts, so too can the state legislatures rewrite their allocation formulas.

CPS

---

Quote:

---

I'll wager that if something like USO Guides wants comes about, there won't be any decent hunting out in the western states for anybody, because if the locals get pushed out for the non-residents, the state will just close it all, to everyone. They'll quit managing the wildlife because the people they "work for", i.e. the people of the state, since they see no gain, will just shut them down through the legislature. Why pay to manage game we don't have access to?

---

Quote:

---

First, the NUMBER of available NR permits do not determine the odds of getting drawn.

---

BS of the highest order! You weren't a math major, were you.........

The ODDS of getting drawn is a mathematical function of number of applicants divided by number of permits available PERIOD! In what order the permits are issued has NO bearing on the initial odds of being drawn!

Quote:

---

Out of the box, a NR has as much chance as a resident as being the very first one selected.

---

Quote:

---

The odds of getting drawn are determined by the number of applicants that chose a particular unit as their First Choice. Both residents and NRs are included in the SAME draw! In other words, if there are 100 permits and 1000 first choice applicants, that's a one in 10 chance or 10%. Now with the 10% NR cap, that means only 10 permits of the 100 will go to NRs.

---

Quote:

---

Got all this so far? 100 permits, 1,000 applicants means 10% drawing odds or 1 in 10.

---

Quote:

---

The computer picks 10 numbers. No NRs are included. That means there are still 10 NR permits in the mix.

The computer picks 10 more numbers; three are NRs chosen. That means there are now 7 NR permits left. The computer picks another 50 numbers before it hits another 3 NRs. That means of the first 70 picks, six NRs got permits of the 10 available under the cap. Now the computer picks the last 30 names and five are NRs. Only four of them will get permits in that unit.

---

There are two big things you can't seem to grasp:

1. Non-residents aren't drawing for the whole pie, only 10% of the pie.......that means NRs have absolutely NO CHANCE of drawing 90 of those permits!

2. in the drawing process itself, a resident's odds of drawing go UP as the 10% cap is approached and a non-residents odds go down (rapidly) as the cap is approached.......

How, you ask? Easy.......when the 10% cap is reached...... ALL the non-residents are eliminated from any chance of drawing that permit.....by eliminating a large portion of applicants from the pool!

You really need to stick to journalism.........math is not your strong point


The fact is, you can't put the genie back in the bottle......your state screwed the pooch.....and now it's going to pay! You and I can argue about it from now on, but the courts have spoken......the fat lady sang.....it's a done deal. If, your state tries to side step the ruling, someone else with deep pockets will come along and spank them again........so get use to it.....things have changed!

Quote:

---

The ODDS of getting drawn is a mathematical function of number of applicants divided by number of permits available PERIOD!

---

Quote:

---

There are ten names in a hat with one prize available. What are the DRAWING odds for EACH name?



There are 100 names in a hat with 10 prizes available. What are the DRAWING odds for EACH name?

---

I'm not a mathematical genius....but I'll give it a go!



1. Initially, the odds are 1 in 10 or 10%.......



2. Initially, the odds are 1 in 10 or 10%......



However, your models aren't accurate because they don't consider the 10% cap.....if we change your model to mirror the AZ drawing equation it goes something like this:



There are 10 prizes and 100 names in the hat.......but, "X" number of the names in the hat (let's say X=40) are only eligible to be drawn UNTIL 1 of those 40 names is pulled from the hat......so, if the first name pulled is one of those 40 names.......then 39 of the remaining names are discarded.....this leaves 60 names eligible to win the remaining 9 prizes.....if you are one of those remaining 60, your odds of being drawn have gone from 10% to 15%......while the odds of group X are now 0%





If the 3rd name drawn is one of the 40......again, 39 of the remaining 97 names are discarded......if you are one of the 58 remaining names left in the hat, your odds of being drawn have gone from 8.1% to 12%......while the odds of group X are now 0%



If the 5th name drawn is one of the 40, again, 39 of the remaining 95 names are discarded......if you are one of the 56 remaining names left in the hat, your odds of being drawn have gone from 6.2% to 9%......while the odds of group X are now 0%



Now, if X increases from 40 to 50 or 60, then the odds of drawing substantially increase for those not in the X group.



Have you got it yet???





I'm not addressing second choices......but, rest assured, as long as the 10% cap remains in the equation.....a non-resident will never have the same odds of drawing as a resident!

Quote:

---

I'm not a mathematical genius....

---

No argument from me.

Quote:

---

However, your models aren't accurate because they don't consider the 10% cap.....if we change your model to mirror the AZ drawing equation it goes something like this:

---

The models in regards to the DRAWING ODDS, i.e. for someone's name to be picked out of many, do not need to consider anything but the stated figures.



And no names in the draw are discarded because second choice units come into play even after all first choices are filled in any given unit. Thus, if a NR number is drawn once the cap is hit in a unit he had listed as 1st choice, he then might get his 2nd choice.



Here's your major problem with "calculations."



First off, the computer assigns a random number from 1 to 1,000,000 to each application and/or bonus point for an applicant. Then it starts spitting out numbers in random order.



The computer drawing doesn't take place by hunt unit but by SPECIES. In other words, each number picked might have a different unit listed as their first choice, 2nd. etc. As the computer selects a number, the choices are checked and filled accordingly.



First pick out of the box -- Res. 1st choice Unit 1.

Second Pick - Res. Unit 27 as 1st choice.

Third Pick - NR Unit 7

Fourth Pick - NR Unit 9

Fifth pick - Res. Unit 4B

Sixth Pick - NR Unit 6A

Seventh Pick - Res. Unit 10 - group of 4 applicants,i.e. 4 permits

etc. etc.



The initial draw with only 1st and 2nd choice considered continues until A. Every permit is gone B. Until the computer has gone through all the names and there are still permits availble.



If B occurs, a SECOND drawing takes place for all those NOT chosen during the first go round. In other words, the deck is reshuffled and the drawing begins anew! BUT this 2nd drawing only involves an applicants 3rd, 4th and 5th choices on the application.



And of course, none of this takes in bonus points, which awards any applicant more numbers in the draw and raises the DRAWING ODDs for those with the MOST numbers in the computer database.



For example, you might have 7 points from past failures to draw a permit. Thus, this year, you will receive 8 numbers. I have only 1 point, so I get 2 numbers. Obviously, you having 8 more chances than me, have the best DRAWING ODDS, even though you're a NR.



Using our basis of 100 available permits, care to figure what the odds are for your number to come up over mine when you have 8 numbers and I have only 2? Hmmm, maybe we need to do away with bonus points for any NRs, eh?



Oh, and then there's the bonus point pool of 10% of the permits, which go to those with the most bonus points for most species. NR and resident alike. -TONY

Quote:

---

The models in regards to the DRAWING ODDS, i.e. for someone's name to be picked out of many, do not need to consider anything but the stated figures.

---

Tony



Admit it, you rode the short bus to school.....didn't you?



It's quite obvious that, even if you ever did "get it" you wouldn't admit it........so, discussing this with you is a hopeless waste of time.......



The good news for non-residents is......it doesn't matter because you already lost!

Quote:

---

Figured it got too complicated for your comprehension.

---

Nope, I didn't major in journalism!

I've always suspected that outdoor writers weren't the sharpest tools in the shed.......now I'm sure of it!

Tell me.......who do you write for and under what name......I want to be sure I'm not wasting good money on those rags!

Quote:

---

that's the stupidest thing i ever heard. i thought most texans were smart, but you're as dumb as a shoebox of assholes.

---

TasunkaWitko: Your statement may be true but that still makes me smarter than Tony!

Quote:

---

They could, you know. Nothing stopping them

---

Quote:

---

At the end of the day the only thing the USO lawsuit is going to do is raise non-resident rates; perhaps even the hunting license itself which is a prereq to getting a bonus point.

---