It is getting warmer - no doubt. But, the cause remains controversial. Winter kills will diminish, but other unexpected consequences may develop. For example, I'm concerned about the drought in the West and it's possible effect on the future of hunting, especially in Arizona and New Mexico. Could the trend toward a warmer climate make the Southwest even drier? Hunting in Canada and Alaska will likely be drastically changed. What other effects might there be? What are your thoughts?

No knowledge of Arizona or New Mexico conditions, but the weather/climate in most of Texas has really gotten strange. We may be just going thru a draught period, and a period of milder temps. without the extremes on the lower end of the thermomometer. JMO

It is getting warmer. We, that is the UK in general and my friends in Norway and Germany, say there is less snow in the Winter. Temperatures are milder and there is more rain, over higher ground, but it falls more heavily during shorter periods.

What causes it? I do not know.

I have read that increased or reduced sun spots / solar flare activity has a great influence on our weather. Makes sense. These solar flare events seem to display some sort of periodicity, so this would account for longer term / periods of climate variation.

Those who remember reading Charles Dickens, will recall the winters he described in the 1830s through 1850s period in England were hard, lots of snow. In the 17th century, Ice fairs were held on top of the thick frozen surface of the River Thames in London, complete with bonfires!

There was a mini ice age in the UK, and I guess in northern Europe generally, between the early 1500s and 1850s. Before that, there was a mini ice age across northern europe from about the 6th century through to the 11th - 12th century.

The Christian Romano - British Celts associated the earlier part to a general end of civilisation, bringing the Saxons, Danes and Vikings(i.e. the people who became the "English") to these shores. Shocking table manners! So, it is not uncommon for the end of the World brigade to shout.

When I lived in Liecester, English Midlands, I visited a local museum. Liecester had been an important Roman garrison city, Norman agricultural centre with associated industries. An archaeological dig had found an earthen ware pot containing wheat seeds - a planting supply from the middle middle ages: 1300s through to early 1400s (I think?).

The interesting part was they were for a species which cannot grow in current climate England, it is now too cold and wet.

I had read the early part of the Middle Ages had a warmer climate and was characterized by healthy harvets, increasing numbers of livestock and general population increases. Then the Black Death bubonic plague of 1347 arrived in England. Just nature re-balancing things.

I have a vague memory of reading about a cave dwelling tribe of American indians in what is now Colorado. They lived in dwellings carved into the soft rock cliff faces. They were an agrarian group, who lived by cultivating crops , did not seem to keep many animals for meat and were not nomadic hunters following the buffalo. Their civilisation seemed to be in decline before the Spanish entered the south west USA - "Conquistadors" (spelling?). Maybe that is the fate for all vegetarians - extinction?

The academics suggest it was climate change - less rain, change in weather patterns with irregular wet seasons which did for them. Although they did say other factors like over population and increased demands for water for irrigation could have added to the problem - desertification.

Global WARMING is a natural cycle. We go from an ice age to a very slow and gradual warm up. One we reach the peak of warming, we will them start or normal cooling cycle to another Ice age. This takes such a long time that you and I will never see it, neither will our great, great, great grand children.

I don't claim to be an expert on global warming. We here in Texas are now wishing for an ice age. It is hotter than hades these days, and always is this time of year. I grew up here but the older I get the less I like hot weather. It seems when you look at history that the planet is in a constant state of change, albeit a very slow one.

quote:

Originally posted by Redhawk1:
Global WARMING is a natural cycle. We go from an ice age to a very slow and gradual warm up. One we reach the peak of warming, we will them start or normal cooling cycle to another Ice age. This takes such a long time that you and I will never see it, neither will our great, great, great grand children.

There is no doubt that global warming and cooling is a natural cycle, the QUESTION is whether or not that natural cycle is being accelerated or changed by human activities. Considering the very quick (relative to normal geologic processes) rate of temperature change, many, but certainly not all, scientists have concluded that the answer is yes, humans are affecting the cycle.

Given that worldwide temps have increased at the one of the fastest rates in history over the last 100 years, to say that humans will not see any negative effects of such a change for the 5 or 6 generations is patently ridiculous. Many of the world's largest cities are built at sealevel. To say, "Oh, it's so slow, we won't notice it, let's ignore it", is passing the buck to our children and their children. To use an analogy, the time take preventative measures is when you've got a bad cut, not gangrene. The worst we can be is wrong and the ameliorations won't affect the cycle. OTOH, it could save humans and the United States citizens countless hardships in the future. For me, I'd opt for doing something, even if it might not be necessary.

quote:

Originally posted by Ackley Improved User:
It is getting warmer - no doubt. But, the cause remains controversial.

It's supposed to be 109 degrees here today, a little cooler would be OK.
When the Yellowstone cutthroat trout hunt alligators in packs, we'll know something happened...

My crystal ball is a real cheapie, and there are a lot of angles to the question. Just looking at our prey, most of it (but certainly not all) are dependent on early stages of vegetation. With global warming, I'd expect more frequent fires that would set back the veg from trees to brush, so the majority of cervids would benefit. In AK where warming and decreased winter severity have given us record setting fire seasons, things don't look good for caribou.

Caribou mostly depend on veg that grows in long, long after disturbance. The fires, melting permafrost, and suchlike will provide better moose habitat, but poorer caribou habitat.

Small game such as cottontails and snowshoe hares will generally benefit. For the gamebirds, it is a real toss-up. Warmer, earlier springs will benefit the hatchlings with better insect crops, but the droughts may kill them. Decreased areas of free water will concentrate the birds making them more susceptible to predation, both human and animal.

My guess is that it'll generally benefit the rifle shooter and further degrade the shotgun-based hunting.

I'm wondering if the recent drop in mule deer populations throughout the Rocky Mountain West is connected to the ever warming climate and chronic semi-drought conditions. Also, I'm concerned that increased fires (indeed, a recent study from UCSD correlates increasing fires in the West with earlier springs, warm temps, and drier conditions). These fires will cause very serious long-term damage to the desert, which recovers very slowly, and degradations of the habitat will hurt wildlife, especially larger animals. The upside might be movement away from these areas by people. Clearly, times are changing and the landscape for both flora and fauna will change significantly.

Another trend might be less travel to far away hunting areas as fuel costs sky-rocket. It might be easierr to get an out-of-state license, if you're one who can afford to travel. Yet, poaching might increase as the economy tanks (do illegals from Mexico poach to survive?), and the economic consequences are likely to be world wide.

All of this is hard to predict, but the changes are occurring and will likely reflect the severity of the changes. Very interesting times ahead.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:

quote:

Originally posted by Redhawk1:
Global WARMING is a natural cycle. We go from an ice age to a very slow and gradual warm up. One we reach the peak of warming, we will them start or normal cooling cycle to another Ice age. This takes such a long time that you and I will never see it, neither will our great, great, great grand children.

There is no doubt that global warming and cooling is a natural cycle, the QUESTION is whether or not that natural cycle is being accelerated or changed by human activities. Considering the very quick (relative to normal geologic processes) rate of temperature change, many, but certainly not all, scientists have concluded that the answer is yes, humans are affecting the cycle.

Given that worldwide temps have increased at the one of the fastest rates in history over the last 100 years, to say that humans will not see any negative effects of such a change for the 5 or 6 generations is patently ridiculous. Many of the world's largest cities are built at sealevel. To say, "Oh, it's so slow, we won't notice it, let's ignore it", is passing the buck to our children and their children. To use an analogy, the time take preventative measures is when you've got a bad cut, not gangrene. The worst we can be is wrong and the ameliorations won't affect the cycle. OTOH, it could save humans and the United States citizens countless hardships in the future. For me, I'd opt for doing something, even if it might not be necessary.

Doing something when you don't truely understand
what's going on is probably the stupidest possible thing to do.

Fact: the earth has been on a gradual warming trend for quite some time.

Opinion: only an extreemly narcissistic idiod could believe that man is responsible for it.

Fact: the earth's average temperature is actually MUCH COOLER than any human has seen since well before written language was invented.
we just HAPPEN to be near the peak of the temp cycle.

Fact: a useful temperature scale was only proposed by Gabriel Farenheit ~1724, so ther
is an impossiblity of any scientifically useful
data about temperature prior to that, and it was some time after that that anyone bothered to consistantly take measurements.

Fact (as pointed out above) Our sun varies it's output a total of 8% (observed) and could conceivably vary more than that (unobserved)
and if you don't think that the sun's output affects global temperatures please get out of the gene pool!

Simply put "ice age" is a more natural state
than any other condition on earth and though temporary temperature fluctuations may affect the insignificant activities of man (in the greater scheme of things man is insignificant)
the idea that man's activities have more than a TINY (virtually unmeasurable) effect on total global temperatures is rediculous.

Is the globe warming up? Yes, any idiot with a thermometer, watch, calendar and a pen (or pencil) to make notes could tell you that.

But the geological evidence is that the climatic history of the earth is of brief temperate periods ending with a sharp temperature spike followed by an ice age.

Just-like-what-is-happening-now!

will the warming affect things? certainly, will the results be universely bad? Not a chance.

So it's hotter? so the winters are warmer? it'll cut down on your winter heating bill
(Should I be expected to cry about that?)

The only thing it all proves is that mother nature can be a real bitch.

The fact that most scientists believe man is responsible isn't a good reason to jump on the bandwagon, because:

1)a preponderance of Doscotrs used to believe that blood letting improved a patients health.

2)The guy who proposed that the Moons cratered surface was caused by metoric impacts was laughed out of his scientific society.

3) Alfred Wegener the father of plate tectonics
was nearly a laughing stock until careful seafloor mapping revealed the Mid-atlantic Rift and PROVED that seafloor spreading drove continental motion (nearly 50 years after Weneger's death) and is his theories are now accepted as fact in the light of overwhelming proof.

4)Galileo Galilei, simply too much to say there...

5)Nicolaus Copernicus, Ditto.

So just because a great majority of people believe something doesn't make them right....

AllanD

Every year for the past 14 years has been just slightly warmer than the last for the extent of the hunting season (deer) in November. I remember whe I first started hunting those 14 years ago to mild winter temps, -10 to -15 degrees Celsius was not uncommon, winter parka and gloves with insulated pants and boots were the order of the day. The past few years have been in the +2 to -2 range during the season. I don't know if it's just a local thing or what, but I can hunt in 0 degrees with a solar fleece and a pair of jeans with comfy hiking boots. Wool socks, toque, parka, and gloves left in the truck. No problem! In fact, we haven't had snow on the groud the past 3 years, it's been too warm. I kinda like the shift, and the animals average weight has jumped about 20 pounds or so, but dislike the fact that it's causing havoc elsewhere in the world.

Alan

I agree with you, everyone is running around screaming global warming while driving around their land yahts, are you listening Al Gore????

This earth has had nothing but a history of widely swinging temperature changes. Most life was extinguished with the impact of a large meteor many times during the history of this planet but life has always rebounded. Super volcanoes ejected millions of metric tons of earth into our atmoshpere yet life still persisted.

So im to believe that 100 years of industrialization is going to destroy the earth???? Come on, what a load of shit, Global Warming is the war cry of the Democrats who habitually use scare tactics to illicit votes!!!!

Like i always say- Dont believe me, do your own research, strive for the truth, its not always easy to see or what you want but its out there.

I do believe that we should be using better fuel sources that are re-newable and dont pollute but i dont think that fossil fuels are causing global warming just because the earth is going through a warming stage.

Allen DeGroot ----- Your thinking and mine are in agreement. I read a couple of years ago in "Fair Chase" magazine put out by the Boone and Crockett Club, that several scientists by studying the Sargassum Sea kelp beds have determined that the world temperature at the time of Jesus Christ was approximately 3 degrees warmer than it is now. If that is indeed true, how did man affect the warming then, when the largest factorys in the world were crude blacksmith shops used to make swords and spears for the Roman Army. ----- If man was not here on earth to cause the previous four major glacial periods, what caused the global warming then. We all know it happens, is man speeding up the process seems to me to be the question. I usually say, just my .02 worth, in this case I must say, just my .01 worth and hope enlightenment comes. Good shooting.

Allan de Groot:

quote:

Fact: the earth's average temperature is actually MUCH COOLER than any human has seen since well before written language was invented.

Please source this ridiculous statement.

And just to try to educate you a bit....

paleoclimatology

The amount of the element carbon is a constant. Little additional carbon is entering our planet from anywhere else in outer space, and very little is leaving the earth. Over the previous four or five billion years, plants have taken carbon from the atmosphere and converted it by photosynthesis into organic compounds. Some land plants died, fell into acid swamps, and formed layers of what eventually became coal. Some organisms in the seas, phytoplankton (particularly diatoms) were able to convert atmospheric and disloved carbon dioxide into oil droplets which eventually formed the vast petroleum deposits we are frenetically removing from beneath the earth. Most of this happened during the past billion or so years.

During the past one hundred years, we have been burning the carbon, recombining it with oxygen to form carbon dioxide, and pumping it back into the atmosphere. While a few climatologists doubt that this has had the major influence on global temperatures, very few contest the following:
1. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is higher now than 100 years ago.
2. Carbon dioxide absorbs heat in the atmosphere and exerts a warming effect upon the earth (greenhouse effect).
3. There is probably little we humans can do to stop whatever climatary changes this will cause at this point.
4. While it is true that the earth has had warm and cold periods in the past, a huge majority of scientists believe that what we have done in burning so much of the fossil fuels in the past century has had an effect.

There is, however, difference in opinion as to what the precise effect will be. One hypothesis is that the warming of the atmosphere could disrupt the flow of ocean currents such as the gulfstream, and that this could precipitate the next ice age. Whatever happens, I believe that there is little that we can do, and even less that we have the will to do, about it. What will happen will happen.

If I live to be a couple of million years old, I'll start to sweat this stuff. Until then, its more fun watching the chicken littles espouse their particular theories on daytime TV.
Bottem line is someone(s) is making money off this and other "cry wolf" deals. Get a good spot on Oprah and then mail out your gimme letter to just the NYC folks and you're rolling in dough.

quote:

Originally posted by RupertBear:
My crystal ball is a real cheapie, and there are a lot of angles to the question. Just looking at our prey, most of it (but certainly not all) are dependent on early stages of vegetation. With global warming, I'd expect more frequent fires that would set back the veg from trees to brush, so the majority of cervids would benefit. In AK where warming and decreased winter severity have given us record setting fire seasons, things don't look good for caribou.

Caribou mostly depend on veg that grows in long, long after disturbance. The fires, melting permafrost, and suchlike will provide better moose habitat, but poorer caribou habitat.

Small game such as cottontails and snowshoe hares will generally benefit. For the gamebirds, it is a real toss-up. Warmer, earlier springs will benefit the hatchlings with better insect crops, but the droughts may kill them. Decreased areas of free water will concentrate the birds making them more susceptible to predation, both human and animal.

My guess is that it'll generally benefit the rifle shooter and further degrade the shotgun-based hunting.

a. But don't forget that we have had fires in Alaska since lighting was created by mother nature.

b. Also, most of the fires we have had this year have been started by humans, and the rest by nature.

c. This summer has been very cool in the interior of Alaska, where it has been raining on and off for weeks now. It has gotten of to 80 or so a couple of times, but it has been around 60 degrees, too. I don't know the details, but it seems that it has been one of the coolest summers recently.

d. We don't really know what will happen in Alaska, but it's also possible that warming will provide for more arable lands. And better still (just a joke): global warming may cause Florida to cancel their "Spring Break" festivities, and all of those good-looking chicks will come to Alaska to celebrate Spring Break at the Turnagan Arms' waterfront and sandy beaches.

d. Lastly: global warming will make it easier for us Alaskans (men and women) to shed a few pounds. This way our girls and boys won't be like plump and juicy Alaska tomatoes.

Now, on a serious note, please read what these Canucs have to say on Global Warming:
http://www.friendsofscience.org/

Wait, 30 years ago wern't the same level-the-playing-field types saying that a "New Ice Age" was on the way? America was to blame and the global cure was for us to change our lifestyle by abandoning our cars and airconditioners etc.

Now that the cry is "Global Warming", why is it that the global cure is for America to change our lifestyle by abandoning our cars and airconditioners etc.

Same old shakedown in a different wrapper I say.

Notice how our up and coming competitors India and China are excluded from the Kyoto treaty? Why? Because thus isn't about global warming, or cooling for that matter. It's about welfare payments to the less competitive, and you get to pay them.

At a hundred plus degrees the last couple of cays in northern Wisconsin all I know is that any game or fish I would have taken would hve to be put in the freezer right away.

Big-foot, you're right about the same people changing their story !! As far as Kyoto -it's a scam .I stopped paying any attention to Kyoto when I found the Russia is in Kyoto only because they will make money because of it !! Same old , same old . I remember an "environmental" conference that was just a forum for world socialism. The speech that recieved by far the most applause was given by Fidel Castro ! I think that was the same one where the Norwegian representative just happened to be a member of the world socialist organization. Global warming -it's America's fault and we have to pay for it .

Put it all in perspective politicians are know nothing know it alls just flapping their gums,none have taken any training on climate,geology or anything relative to climate.They listen to those other"expert" know nothing know it alls" like their equal gore.

So maybe you guys need to replace all that socialist opportunism with real market based solutions and show em' how it's done.

The data is becoming increasingly clear on global warming and that anthropogenic factors are contributing to it.

Who gives a rats ass if Gore and Castro are sniveling about it, take the issue away from them and act on it.

quote:

Originally posted by Gatogordo:
Allan de Groot:

quote:

Fact: the earth's average temperature is actually MUCH COOLER than any human has seen since well before written language was invented.

Please source this ridiculous statement.

And just to try to educate you a bit....

paleoclimatology

Actually I rephrased, because a sentance kinda disappeared...

The averge temp over geological time is much lower than it is now.
the temperature NOW isn't actually as high as many other peaks when the only thing that could have explained the additional warmth was intestinal gas from large animals and festering swamp scum.

We just happen to be approaching an unexceptional temp peak and people are running around screaming about it.

ALL the works of man combined, ALL the brush fires, barbecues smoldering cigarettes and overheating pentium processors put together add up to far less than .000001% of the total energy
that arrives on earth everyday as solar radiation in the visible spectrum

And anyone who suffers under the rediculous dilusion that man is responsible for a significant increase in temperature, only proves my point that they should be beaten to death with a fourth grade math textbook.

BTW, the net-sum-total of what is said on the link you provided is that "they don't know"
though they obfuscate the point a bit.

Frankly in my mind "don't know" equals "don't know" no matter how it's phrased.

My point is that people are asking us to completely change our lifestyles to a degree that is unimaginable to virtually everyone on the basis of an "I don't know".

Frankly I think the prolem with burning fosile fuels and releasing carbon dioxide is a self correcting problem.

The CO2 in the atmosphere has increased?

Ok tell me Professor Poindexter, what is the concentration of CO2 in earths atmosphere?
(no searching on Wikipedia, right off the top of your head)

Now comment on the fact that Sulfur Dioxide
counters the effect of CO2 even when the SO2
is a tiny fraction of the level of the CO2, and most people complain that burning peat and coal increases sulfur emmissions.....

What I worry about is NOT "global warming"
What I worry about is the affect on my life
from MISGUIDED attempts to correct the problems by forced changes in our lifestyles.

changes that I'll end up paying for several different ways.

Like everyone else I have a lot invested in personal infrastructure that would have to be replaced with EXPENSIVE new technology equipment
that operates to any new standards that might be mandated.

My personal transportation, my domestic heat sources, etc...

AllanD

quote:

Originally posted by Skinner.:
So maybe you guys need to replace all that socialist opportunism with real market based solutions and show em' how it's done.

The data is becoming increasingly clear on global warming and that anthropogenic factors are contributing to it.

Who gives a rats ass if Gore and Castro are sniveling about it, take the issue away from them and act on it.

"How it's done" what? Global warming? Well, to increase global warming all we have to do is to clean the air in such a way that there is not smog in the skies of California, and China. Once that happens, the sun rays should be able to reach earth and fry it like an egg placed on a hot chick's behind while tanning at noon at one of the beaches in Florida.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4880328.stm

Meanwhile, it's barely 60 degrees in Fairbanks. Not only that, but the ice just melted at Summit lake on the second week of June, just as it happens each year. I imagine that if this cool weather and rain continues, I will be hunting moose under the snow by mid September

We are doomed, folks

Global warming is the least of your problems with hunting. At the rate of urban sprawl and the dogshit known as the baby boomer. There won't be any hunting to worry about being effected by climate change.

quote:

Originally posted by sledder:
Global warming is the least of your problems with hunting. At the rate of urban sprawl and the dogshit known as the baby boomer. There won't be any hunting to worry about being effected by climate change.

(Joke) Add that to the number of illegal immigrants crashing our borders, and soon Californians will be populating Alaska, and the Alaskans will be pushed to Russia.

But what you said is correct. There are houses and roads sprouting all over the place.

Things are definitely AVERAGING warmer and dryer in my part of the country, despite the usual short term variations and unpredictability.

Winters are generally milder which should help big game -- yet at the same time their valley wintering areas are increasingly being overtaken by suburban sprawl.

Even before the warm dry trend started, weeds from Russia and Europe were taking over the foothills and turning them into wastelands. The warm dry summers and frequent rangefires are only accelerating the spread of weeds. This is a huge problem that doesn't get much press. Sage grouse are practically extinct due to the invasive weeds.

Springs and creeks have dried up, forcing game to concentrate around the few remaining water sources -- where they are easy pickings for cougar and coyotes.

All theory and political issues aside, here is one personal, non-political example -- For several years I sucessfully hunted a large clearing formed by an avalanche slide. The clearing made it easy to see game, and there was plenty of game in the area due to the lush native grasses growing on the hills.

Now fast forward a few years -- the clearing is now overgrown with brush and trees because there hasn't been enough snow for an avalanche. Brown stubble is all that remains of the formerly lush native grasses. Several springs in the area completely dried up. There is hardly a track or pellet to be found on the mountain. Instead, the animals are spending their days shading up on the north slopes, then at night they commute down to the valley to raid the farmer's fields and stock ponds.

The elk harvest has increased in some areas (the wolf-less areas) because the warm dry conditions have forced elk down into the valley where they are easy pickings for the road hunters. More tags are issued because farmers complain about elk damaging their crops and haystacks.

On the bright side, the warm dry conditions have actually improved habitat for some species. Whitetail populations have increased dramatically in most parts of Idaho. Whitetail seem to adapt to the suburban sprawl better than mule deer or elk, and the whitetail have benefited from the milder winters. Turkey populations seem to be increasing (the turkey is not even native to Idaho).

Just a thought about the earth getting hotter. If we still have glaciers, maybe the earth hasn't completetly warmed back up to it's previous (pre iceage) state.

Anyway as far as animals and hunting go, I know that three easy little snow winters in a row sure jumped the numbers of deer in my neck of the woods.

We have guys on AR who will pontificate ad nauseum about the right elk rifle for elk when they themselves have never even killed one.
So I am not surprised anyone would try and sound smarter than they are when they really have no basis for their opinion.

Just like the elk ballistics threads, it would be nice if those sounding like experts would post a bit of their credentials.

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:
We have guys on AR who will pontificate ad nauseum about the right elk rifle for elk when they themselves have never even killed one.
So I am not surprised anyone would try and sound smarter than they are when they really have no basis for their opinion.

Just like the elk ballistics threads, it would be nice if those sounding like experts would post a bit of their credentials.

Just imagine how boring it would be in this forum if everyone of us was an expert on global warming?

From what I have seen of the supposed experts on daytime TV and from reading various written articles, I would say the most ill informed person in this room has as good a position and any of them. When you make millennium projections based on the past 30 years, you really have your head where the sun don't shine!
Its basically outcome driven research. Gotta keep the scare factor up so's them grants keep coming. And you don't get on Oprah if you're saying "everythings cool. Its just normal fluctuations."

AZ, even the brightest scientific "experts" are people w/ opinions & agendas. If you study a bit of anthropolgy & history, you see that our climate has cycles & we are in one. Man may or may not influence the cycles but rolling over for the UN & Kyoto only sacrafices the US economy & global warming continues until we hit global cooling or the next ice age. It will happen it's just a matter of when.