I just returned from Phoenix where I attended the NRA Annual Meetings and Exhibits. I spoke with reps from Winchester, Remington, Federal, and also the powder manufacturers like Accurate, Hodgdens, IMR, Winchester (the last 3 are owned by the same parent company), and bullet makers like Hornady, Sierra, Berry's, Nosler, etc. The answer from all of them is they are making as much as they can, as fast as they can, and they can not keep up with demand. They all stated their supplies are coming in to the factory without interuption, they just can't make bullets, loaded ammunition, or powder fast enough.

The rep from Accurate Powder reminded me that it takes several weeks or a couple months to create a batch of powder, because the mixing takes time and can not be just thrown together (almost like it needs to brew like beer or fine wine), but he also explained that as soon as each batch is completed it is on the trucks and enroute to the distributors.

As far as where to buy anything gun or bullet related. They mentioned all the major internet suppliers like Midway, Powder Valley, Midsouth, etc, all the places we are already familiar with, but as with everyone else they can not keep product in stock due to the high demand.

In short, they all agreed the firearm, ammunition, and related industries are doing more than their part to stimulate the economy by posting record sales numbers (quantities) month after month for the past couple of years. I forget which month one rep mentioned, but they produced about 210% more this year than last year in that month and still could not keep up with demand. They are all running 24/7 and they will continue to do so as long as we keep buying product.

That being said, I scored some .224 caliber 55 grain pointed softpoint bullets for reloading from Midsouth last week. The were posted available that morning and the next morning they were gone! I will load them into some .223 or 22-250 cartridges, but they wont last long when I start shooting again. Natchez finally sent me a notice that some loaded .223 ammo came available, but it is over twice the price they sold it for the last time they had it in stock about 18 months ago. Supply and demand, I read something about that in Economics class about 20+ years ago.

Oh, the NRA meetings and exhibits were AWESOME!

(I am posting this info on a few different forums to answer the often asked question. I wasn't sure where to post this, and thought if I added it into another post it would be missed. Hope this thread helps.)

Yep, I think we are all up to date on what the problem is, the question now is what is the solution.

I know demand will slow sometime, but that is doing me absolutely no good right now. I unfortunately picked this year to really get involved in rifle shooting and am shooting a few matches. Until now, my reloading and rifle shooting has been limited to hunting; big game, coyotes, prarie dogs. What is available right now would probably do me just fine if I wasn't shooting these matches.

You would think that this would be a business opportunity for someone. What a great time to start a component company. I guess it's not easy to get up and running; tooling and such. And when demand returns to normal, you're screwed (probably about the time you get up and running).

I was surprised to see a few boxes of bullets on the shelf at Sportsman's yesterday. Still no primers in my entire city and powder can be found about 1# at a time. I need 8#'s at a time with as much shooting and load development I'm doing. The .300 WM makes a pound of powder seem like a thimblefull.................

I was sure that would be their story, and fairly sure it is true.

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Yep, I think we are all up to date on what the problem is, the question now is what is the solution.

to me it's simple.....wait until it's over.

It won't be too long and folks will feel amply stocked.......just be patient!

I think as high as everything has gone, we can expect an equal amount of decline, past the median, then it will settle down again.

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Originally posted by Prewar70:
I think as high as everything has gone, we can expect an equal amount of decline, past the median, then it will settle down again.

It didn't last time .. it went up to 5x, and then settled at 1.5 to 2x .. why expect it to be anything but that in the future?

Like i've been saying, its getting better, and will be much closer to "pre election" in about 3-4 months

Shot for shotshell loading, in #7.5, #8 and #9 -- the sizes most used for trap and skeet -- has gone down in price over the last year, at least where I usually buy it. (The Prince George's County Trap & Skeet Center in Greenbelt, Maryland) It was above $40 for a 25 lb. bag, but I bought a bag a few days ago and it's now about $29/25 lb. bag.

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Originally posted by INresponse:
...The answer from all of them is they are making as much as they can, as fast as they can, and they can not keep up with demand. ...they produced about 210% more this year than last year in that month and still could not keep up with demand. They are all running 24/7 and they will continue to do so as long as we keep buying product....Oh, the NRA meetings and exhibits were AWESOME!. ...

Nice first-hand, direct from the horse's mouth report. Thank you.

Completely agree about the Annual NRA Meetings. They are as good as it gets for actually talking to the folks who make what we want.

Components will be running out of our ears in a year or so. Remember the "housing bubble", and before that the "tech bubble". Well, bubbles in commodity or product prices, always result in stimulated production which oversupplies a saturated market. After all, how many more cases of 5,000 .22 LR or Black Hills .223 can Bubba afford to buy and store in his wife's kitchen pantry? And isn't it eventually going to dawn on Bubba that (1) he's been buying a commodity at historically high prices, (2) he has little or no more money to purchase more of it, (3) he can't use what he's already got, so (4) the supply starts to go up and the price starts to go down, which (5) causes him to want to dump some of his excess while he still can, which (6) increases the supply more and pushes prices even lower. My money is still in my pocket, ready to buy Bubba's oversupply at half what he paid for it just like I did in the last two bubbles (which is why I had plenty of components on hand when the current bubble came along.)

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he can't use what he's already got, so (4) the supply starts to go up and the price starts to go down, which (5) causes him to want to dump some of his excess while he still can, which (6) increases the supply more and pushes prices even lower. My money is still in my pocket, ready to buy Bubba's oversupply at half what he paid for it just like I did in the last two bubbles (which is why I had plenty of components on hand when the current bubble came along.)

Bingo!!

I don't buy it. There was show on the History or Discovery channel about lead and it's uses. They went to the Sierra bullet making factory for the part of lead in bullets. The rep there said they make (now don't quote me as I may have gotten the number wrong) 6 million bullets a day. Lot of my friends say that when there are bullets on the counter display today they are most often Sierra.

I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

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starmetal: Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

Or the government.

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Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

What the "industry" is not telling you is that they understand the bubble and are not stupid enough to overproduce as the bubble collapses. Federal (ATK) laid off a signficant number of employees back in November because they had caught up with the supply shortage caused by the unprecedented military demand. When the "political" bubble started after November, ATK brought back some laid off employees to take advantage of the unexpected spike in demand. Now, although they may be producing at the moment at "full tilt", Federal and all of the others are planning on near-term reductions in employment and production as the bubble runs its course.

Besides, it's the sales rep's job to sell, not to run either the planning or the production side of the business. The sales rep is not about to tell you that in a few months they'll be deleting shifts and idling machinery.

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Originally posted by starmetal:
I don't buy it. There was show on the History or Discovery channel about lead and it's uses. They went to the Sierra bullet making factory for the part of lead in bullets. The rep there said they make (now don't quote me as I may have gotten the number wrong) 6 million bullets a day. Lot of my friends say that when there are bullets on the counter display today they are most often Sierra.

I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

You don't have to buy it, but I did not have a pen and paper in hand to take notes when he explained it. Some powders take more time to make, other powders take less time to make. But, then they take samples of each lot, run tests on the burning rate and pressures produced to make sure each not lot will perform like previous lots. I don't work there and I don't claim to know all the details, but I gave you a fairly accurate summary of what I learned by asking some questions.

For everyone else who is interested in the information, no charge!

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Originally posted by INresponse:

quote:

Originally posted by starmetal:
I don't buy it. There was show on the History or Discovery channel about lead and it's uses. They went to the Sierra bullet making factory for the part of lead in bullets. The rep there said they make (now don't quote me as I may have gotten the number wrong) 6 million bullets a day. Lot of my friends say that when there are bullets on the counter display today they are most often Sierra.

I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

You don't have to buy it, but I did not have a pen and paper in hand to take notes when he explained it. Some powders take more time to make, other powders take less time to make. But, then they take samples of each lot, run tests on the burning rate and pressures produced to make sure each not lot will perform like previous lots. I don't work there and I don't claim to know all the details, but I gave you a fairly accurate summary of what I learned by asking some questions.

For everyone else who is interested in the information, no charge!

I'll give you two examples. One is the Sunoco Oil refinery I worked at. We make a batch and while making a batch of something a constant stream of samples were taken and sent to the testing lab. This took time. Another was a chemical plant I worked for. We made a product that was in a powder form for the rubber industry. We constantly took samples of that during production too. Sure they take samples and run test. No ways it takes week, weeks, or a month. I'll bet that fellow never even toured the powder production site.

I just got off the phone with my friend who runs the Lothar Walther barrel production facility in Atlanta, Georgia and mentioned this post. We were both laughing at it. He's in the industry and knows what is going on. Like he said "keyboard commandos". Sorry if that tramps on your toes.

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Originally posted by starmetal:
I don't buy it. There was show on the History or Discovery channel about lead and it's uses. They went to the Sierra bullet making factory for the part of lead in bullets. The rep there said they make (now don't quote me as I may have gotten the number wrong) 6 million bullets a day. Lot of my friends say that when there are bullets on the counter display today they are most often Sierra.

I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

I was at Sierra the first part of Apr took the tour and they sure had alot of bullets alittle over million per barrel with Federal name on them.

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Originally posted by starmetal:I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

Stick powder usually takes 2 to 3 weeks to manufacture. Add in time to test, blend, and package and I can believe a month or more from start to finish. Accurate does make a lot of extruded powder.

Ball, on the other hand, can be made in a matter of days. That's one of the reasons why ball powders are more popular with the Military and with the major ammunition manufacturers.

Ray

<<<I just got off the phone with my friend who runs the Lothar Walther barrel production facility in Atlanta, Georgia and mentioned this post. We were both laughing at it. He's in the industry and knows what is going on. Like he said "keyboard commandos">>>

I tend to believe INresponse' account of what he heard from the Accurate Powder representative at the NRA annual meeting. It seems to me that if anybody is full of hot air it is starmetal and his story of laughing at Inresponse's account with his buddy at Walther.

It's interesting that starmetal worked at Sunoco and his friend works at a barrel manufacturer, but I'd believe the Accurate Powder representative beforehand.

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Originally posted by Cheechako:

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Originally posted by starmetal:I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

Stick powder usually takes 2 to 3 weeks to manufacture. Add in time to test, blend, and package and I can believe a month or more from start to finish.

Ball, on the other hand, can be made in a matter of days. That's why ball powders are more popular with the Military and with the major ammunition manufacturers.

Ray

This is the quote I believe the most. If it's a new powder from scratch (that is new series, not something that has been in the line up) then that takes long if includes all the stages of development. The time that takes the longest is he time would be in nitrating/nitriding the cellulose material. The cellulose must be plasterized first with some kind of solvent if they don't want to better control the nitration with the nitric acid, if indeed, they are using that. Some will, some won't and that depends on how they receive the raw materials based on availability, laws, cost.

The real answer is WTF would the Accurate Powder guy have to gain by lying about it while just discussing the issue with a man on the street?

Answer: Nothing, ergo, it's almost certainly true as he understands the situation.

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Originally posted by rcamuglia:

.

You would think that this would be a business opportunity for someone. What a great time to start a component company. I guess it's not easy to get up and running; tooling and such. And when demand returns to normal, you're screwed (probably about the time you get up and running).

.

And the threat of the State ending your business by fiat is a big downer also.

Just stopped by a kind-of local Gun Shop today, Glauber's Sports which is between Louisville and Cincinnati on the old Death Trap - Highway 42.

Glauber's Sports
106 4th Street
Carrolton, KY 41008
(502)732-4005

They looked to be well stocked with Bullets and Powder. I asked if they were having trouble getting Primers and Randy pointed to a very well stocked shelf of Primers. Never crossed my mind to ask how much they were since I've got plenty.

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Originally posted by starmetal:

I'll give you two examples. One is the Sunoco Oil refinery I worked at. We make a batch and while making a batch of something a constant stream of samples were taken and sent to the testing lab. This took time. Another was a chemical plant I worked for. We made a product that was in a powder form for the rubber industry. We constantly took samples of that during production too. Sure they take samples and run test. No ways it takes week, weeks, or a month. I'll bet that fellow never even toured the powder production site.

I just got off the phone with my friend who runs the Lothar Walther barrel production facility in Atlanta, Georgia and mentioned this post. We were both laughing at it. He's in the industry and knows what is going on. Like he said "keyboard commandos". Sorry if that tramps on your toes.

Well, if making smokeless gun powder is anything like refining oil, working with chemicals in the powder form of rubber, or barrel production at Lothar Walther than I guess your information is the most accurate. But rest assured that if I thought you were posting inaccurate information I would not be calling a friend to laugh about it.



(edit to correct spelling of Lothar)

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:

quote:

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

What the "industry" is not telling you is that they understand the bubble and are not stupid enough to overproduce as the bubble collapses. Federal (ATK) laid off a signficant number of employees back in November because they had caught up with the supply shortage caused by the unprecedented military demand. When the "political" bubble started after November, ATK brought back some laid off employees to take advantage of the unexpected spike in demand. Now, although they may be producing at the moment at "full tilt", Federal and all of the others are planning on near-term reductions in employment and production as the bubble runs its course.

Besides, it's the sales rep's job to sell, not to run either the planning or the production side of the business. The sales rep is not about to tell you that in a few months they'll be deleting shifts and idling machinery.

I didn't think to ask them what they will be doing with production when the catch up. Right now I was concerned about right now.

My intention was to share the information passed on to my by the industry representatives I spoke to at the show. It seems the biggest rips are regarding the info I attributed to the Accurate Powder rep, but that was the one conversation I expounded on because he was the first rep I talked with. I also had similar explainations with the Hodgdons and IMR reps regarding powder manufacturing but once I recognized the similarity in answers I switched my questions over to technical stuff about my reloading. Time was limited due to the many people visiting their booth and I wanted answers to several questions.

If I answered your questions about the supply and demand then we are all better because of it. If you don't like the information I provided .... don't read it. There are plenty of posts by the tinfoil crowd explaining the conspiracies.

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Originally posted by starmetal:

quote:

Originally posted by Cheechako:

quote:

Originally posted by starmetal:I worked in the chemical production field. I'm not buying Accurates description on how long it takes to make a batch of powder.

Don't believe everything you hear even if it came from the industry.

Stick powder usually takes 2 to 3 weeks to manufacture. Add in time to test, blend, and package and I can believe a month or more from start to finish.

Ball, on the other hand, can be made in a matter of days. That's why ball powders are more popular with the Military and with the major ammunition manufacturers.

Ray

This is the quote I believe the most. If it's a new powder from scratch (that is new series, not something that has been in the line up) then that takes long if includes all the stages of development. The time that takes the longest is he time would be in nitrating/nitriding the cellulose material. The cellulose must be plasterized first with some kind of solvent if they don't want to better control the nitration with the nitric acid, if indeed, they are using that. Some will, some won't and that depends on how they receive the raw materials based on availability, laws, cost.

It doesn't matter if it's a new powder or a new run of an old powder. Unfortunately it isn't possible to exactly duplicate the burn rate of powders from production lot to production lot for consumer reloading. Can't be done, at least at any economical rate. The commercial loaders and military suppliers use bulk powders and develop specific powder charge for each lot number to achieve the spec for that ammo. Whether or not the ammo has the same grains of powder from different lots is irrevelant.

The commercial reloading (canister) powders must be much more uniform from lot to lot due to all the published data in the reloading manuals and the corresponding liability if they miss the mark. In their case, the consistency of the weight charge from lot to lot is completely relevant.

So in addition to production time they have to test various lots of the same powder for burn rate and blend them, retest and get the "average" they need to meet spec. This means lots of lab time in addition to production time. So the lag time the sales rep stated is very probable.

quote:

Originally posted by tiggertate:
It doesn't matter if it's a new powder or a new run of an old powder. Unfortunately it isn't possible to exactly duplicate the burn rate of powders from production lot to production lot for consumer reloading. Can't be done, at least at any economical rate. The commercial loaders and military suppliers use bulk powders and develop specific powder charge for each lot number to achieve the spec for that ammo. Whether or not the ammo has the same grains of powder from different lots is irrevelant.

The commercial reloading (canister) powders must be much more uniform from lot to lot due to all the published data in the reloading manuals and the corresponding liability if they miss the mark. In their case, the consistency of the weight charge from lot to lot is completely relevant.

So in addition to production time they have to test various lots of the same powder for burn rate and blend them, retest and get the "average" they need to meet spec. This means lots of lab time in addition to production time. So the lag time the sales rep stated is very probable.

Thank you for adding the info on blending the lots to obtain the correct burn rate. I completely overlooked that information. But, I didn't take notes at the time and just lumped that into the several weeks to couple months time frame for production.

Thanks again.

From what I'm hearing from lots of shooter is that powder isn't the problem it's mainly primers. I can find plenty of powder and bullets in my area. Loaded ammo is next down on the list for hard to get.

want to know why the resistence to this post?

it doesn't conform with "the sky is falling" or "the gubbenmint conspriricey" (spelling intentional) ...

that they are working their tails off, and shipping the heck out of product doesn't align with nefarious plots

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Originally posted by starmetal:
From what I'm hearing from lots of shooter is that powder isn't the problem it's mainly primers. I can find plenty of powder and bullets in my area. Loaded ammo is next down on the list for hard to get.

Plenty of primers around here. Powder is rare on the shelfs and difficult to find 8# canisters of what I use on the web, or 1# canisters for that matter.

Bass Pro has primers, Cabellas had primers last weekend when I was there, and even my friends small shop has primers. Maybe I will head your way for my next vacation so I can get what I need in the way of powder.

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Originally posted by INresponse:

quote:

Originally posted by starmetal:
From what I'm hearing from lots of shooter is that powder isn't the problem it's mainly primers. I can find plenty of powder and bullets in my area. Loaded ammo is next down on the list for hard to get.

Plenty of primers around here. Powder is rare on the shelfs and difficult to find 8# canisters of what I use on the web, or 1# canisters for that matter.

Bass Pro has primers, Cabellas had primers last weekend when I was there, and even my friends small shop has primers. Maybe I will head your way for my next vacation so I can get what I need in the way of powder.

None of the major internet outlets have primers. I'm talking Wideners, Grafs, Midway, Midsouthshooters, Pats Reloading, etc. These places mentioned give a better price plus most of them have dealer price. Cabelas..BassPro..screw you on prices.

Wideners has lots of powder. When it goes out of stock they seem to get it fairly fast.

What I can't understand is why Wolf primer manufacturer can't keep up with demand. As you know they aren't U.S. made and as far as I know Obama has only affected this country with the firearms, ammo, and components scare.

Grafs had F215M's last week, I bought 5000 for $170.99.

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Originally posted by INresponse:

quote:

Originally posted by starmetal:
From what I'm hearing from lots of shooter is that powder isn't the problem it's mainly primers. I can find plenty of powder and bullets in my area. Loaded ammo is next down on the list for hard to get.

Plenty of primers around here. Powder is rare on the shelfs and difficult to find 8# canisters of what I use on the web, or 1# canisters for that matter.

Bass Pro has primers, Cabellas had primers last weekend when I was there, and even my friends small shop has primers. Maybe I will head your way for my next vacation so I can get what I need in the way of powder.

I had time at work this afternoon where I was stuck at the hospital babysitting a prisoner so I surfed the web a while. While at Cabellas on Saturday, and recently at Bass Pro in Las Vegas, I saw sleeves of primers on the shelf but I checked their websites and no primers in stock. I know that inventory in the store and inventory at the internet warehouse is two different things but it was a little bit of a surprise. I went on to search many other sites and noticed that #209 primers are in stock all over but the others are getting scarce. I did pick up some Winchester small pistol, small rifle and large pistol primers though, prices ranging from $27.00 to $30.00 a sleeve. They are out there, just gotta look. . . . and be lucky I guess.

One must also remember that military surplus powder when it used to be available burned differently from one lot to another. As such it is a logical conclusion that comercially available powder takes more manufacturing steps and time.