I am looking at booking a hunt for 2009 with my father. We have both been over before him once and myself twice for PG. He likes to hunt as do I and while I would like warm my double up and shoot a buff, its not going to happen right now. So we are looking at another PG hunt in either Namibia or Zim or Bots, (I don't want to go back to RSA).

With my current schedule (which is pretty wide open) and him being retired we have the time.

With the current economy and bookings maybe being soft, would you wait for last minute deals at a discount (such as late season) or later this spring, or book right now? Any help would be appreciated.

I'm going out on a limb and am going to play the "wait and see" game... I'm going somewhere this season, just dont know where and what for just yet!!

If I hadn't booked, I'd wait and see too.

I guess you need a crystal ball to be sure of what's gonna be best on that one, but if you take a look at the special offers etc forum here, you'll find some guys are already offering some real knock down prices. To be honest, I can't see prices dropping much more than those guys are offering right now.

My guess is those prices are more likely to go up rather than down as the year progresses. At the end of the day, they (and I) have to make a living out of what they do and I can tell you now, those guys ain't exactly getting rich on those prices.

Sooooo I'd say book it now!

If you're looking at plains game, I'd go ahead and book. I don't think prices will get much lower.

However if it is buffalo or leopard, I think I'd wait a bit. I see no reason for an outfitter to charge a higher daily rate for dangerous game than plains game other than they can with supply and demand. With less demand, I think those rates will come down.

There are some exceptional deals on elephant now. Look at the offer dukxdog has on the Outfitters/Offered/Discounted Hunts forum.

I also think that I would book now for PG for the dates and location I wanted. I think you will see daily rates for hunts stay the same, and maybe only minor change.

I talked to several friends who are outfitters and their comments were generally the same. Yes, their bookings were a little soft for 2009, but they will weather this. It wouldn't be especially fair to offer discounted hunts when others booked last year at higher prices (how to handle refunds, discounts, or just blow it off?). They did say there were ways to sweeten the pot such as reduced trophy fees, additional animals, extra services, etc. These need to be on a personal level between the outfitter and hunter.

If your timing is at all flexible, wait, for sure, unless you are buying one of the hunts that are in scarce supply eg Zambia cats. The attendance at SCI was down 40%. Chifuti has 40 buffalo unsold (about a quarter of their quota) Last year they sold all 160 at the shows.

Within limits, the supply of shootable animals on any given piece of ground in any given year is pretty much a fixed number. Game ranchers have to take off animals going into the winter, to prevent overgrazing. Gov't quotas are, by definition, use-or-lose propositions. So as the season progresses, if significant quotas remain unsold, the prices will come down.

The economy is not going to recover anytime soon, the antics in Washington are going to make it worse. Banks are not going to lend if their rights to foreclose are limited or taken away by a bunch of liberal politicians. So demand is going to remain weak. Going into this, I thought the rest of the world would not be affected, diluting the downturn, but that has turned out to be wrong. The entire industrial world is in the tank.

One caution...the binge of federal borrowing and spending is going to put the last nail in the coffin of the US dollar. So take the money you have put aside for hunting (if any) and invest it in foreign-denominated securities or gold. DO NOT invest in US long Bonds. Interest rates are going to go up a lot to attract the huge inflows of foreign money necessary to keep us on the debt drug, and the value of long bonds is going to tank as well as the value of the dollar.

Gentlemen, welcome to the new Brazil.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

Gentlemen, welcome to the new Brazil.

or do you really me Zimbabwe????

congress is going to consult with Zimbabwe on "how can we print money as fast you" -----I do believe

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
If your timing is at all flexible, wait, for sure, unless you are buying one of the hunts that are in scarce supply eg Zambia cats. The attendance at SCI was down 40%. Chifuti has 40 buffalo unsold (about a quarter of their quota) Last year they sold all 160 at the shows.

Within limits, the supply of shootable animals on any given piece of ground in any given year is pretty much a fixed number. Game ranchers have to take off animals going into the winter, to prevent overgrazing. Gov't quotas are, by definition, use-or-lose propositions. So as the season progresses, if significant quotas remain unsold, the prices will come down.

The economy is not going to recover anytime soon, the antics in Washington are going to make it worse. Banks are not going to lend if their rights to foreclose are limited or taken away by a bunch of liberal politicians. So demand is going to remain weak. Going into this, I thought the rest of the world would not be affected, diluting the downturn, but that has turned out to be wrong. The entire industrial world is in the tank.

One caution...the binge of federal borrowing and spending is going to put the last nail in the coffin of the US dollar. So take the money you have put aside for hunting (if any) and invest it in foreign-denominated securities or gold. DO NOT invest in US long Bonds. Interest rates are going to go up a lot to attract the huge inflows of foreign money necessary to keep us on the debt drug, and the value of long bonds is going to tank as well as the value of the dollar.

Gentlemen, welcome to the new Brazil.

Mr. Gould,
In your comments above, the first two paragraphs make sense. You seem to be in that business and should know a little about it.

I find your advice and comments in the last 2 paragraphs interesting. Are you an investment broker or certified investment planner? Do you have expertise in currency trading or precious metals? I would be curious to see what your money is invested in based on the advice you are freely giving.

"The entire industrial world in the tank" - seems the world economy is struggling but other than Iceland and Zimbabwe, which economies are insolvent? The Chinese government projects 8% growth for 2009, the Russians are digging out of their hole, the US will do so over the next 18 to 24 months. The dollar is up against the
Euro and pound, more so than 6 months ago.

I have a hard time buying what you are selling. Stick to sell guns on the internet.

Russ,

You might be right, but I hope not. In any case, don't wait to hunt Africa as it could get cheaper or more expensive. If you have the cash haggle yourself a good price and go now.

sieerabravo45,

Here's a scenario. You wait around until late summer and book a "deal". Often these plains game areas are stocked yearly and during the year. Do you think if you get a cheap hunt at the end of the season the safari operator is going to restock for your "deal". It ain't happening. Or maybe there are plenty of animals but good quality everything is long in the salt.

Book a real hunt for the dates that work for you, provide the best hunting and quota availability. Have a great hunt and don't screw yourself over a few bucks.

Mark

I booked now, for me it was a simple choice.

1) It's my first trip so I wanted to be sure on my choice of outfitter and time.

2) I am also using air miles so I need to lock in close to a year out.

3) My schedule is not flexible enough to wait for a late deal to pop up and be on an airplane a month later.

Frostbit,
You make sense. Do what you can afford.
And thanks for not giving me financial advice.

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
sieerabravo45,

Here's a scenario. You wait around until late summer and book a "deal". Often these plains game areas are stocked yearly and during the year. Do you think if you get a cheap hunt at the end of the season the safari operator is going to restock for your "deal". It ain't happening. Or maybe there are plenty of animals but good quality everything is long in the salt.

Book a real hunt for the dates that work for you, provide the best hunting and quota availability. Have a great hunt and don't screw yourself over a few bucks.

Mark

More, pretty good advice. You get what you pay for in life. The best deal I got on a gun was one that would shoot 5" groups at 50 yards. The most expensive gun I have shoots 1/2" groups at 200 yards. Wonder why?

Its only Jan. wait and see at least a couple of months. I remember some popular poster here (Mark)
saying their would be no deals, Look at the discount thread now. I never have seen it start so early. If you book with a good company you will not have to worry.

quote:

Originally posted by BulldogMaster:

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

The economy is not going to recover anytime soon, the antics in Washington are going to make it worse. Banks are not going to lend if their rights to foreclose are limited or taken away by a bunch of liberal politicians. So demand is going to remain weak. Going into this, I thought the rest of the world would not be affected, diluting the downturn, but that has turned out to be wrong. The entire industrial world is in the tank.

One caution...the binge of federal borrowing and spending is going to put the last nail in the coffin of the US dollar. So take the money you have put aside for hunting (if any) and invest it in foreign-denominated securities or gold. DO NOT invest in US long Bonds. Interest rates are going to go up a lot to attract the huge inflows of foreign money necessary to keep us on the debt drug, and the value of long bonds is going to tank as well as the value of the dollar.

Gentlemen, welcome to the new Brazil.

Mr. Gould,
In your comments above

I find your advice and comments in the last 2 paragraphs interesting. Are you an investment broker or certified investment planner? Do you have expertise in currency trading or precious metals? I would be curious to see what your money is invested in based on the advice you are freely giving.

"The entire industrial world in the tank" - seems the world economy is struggling but other than Iceland and Zimbabwe, which economies are insolvent? The Chinese government projects 8% growth for 2009, the Russians are digging out of their hole, the US will do so over the next 18 to 24 months. The dollar is up against the
Euro and pound, more so than 6 months ago.

I have a hard time buying what you are selling. Stick to sell guns on the internet.

I am a (semi-retired pensioner) ex:Rhodesain (living in New Zealand) whom works part time from home as a 100% independant Safari and Southern Africa game ranch investment consultant.

I (dont know a hell of a lot about anything) BUT I do try my damdest to keep up with world events, social leisure and political

This is my general read on the situation (with referance to Russ Goulds comments)

I will expand upon with some of my thoughts

Yes the USA is in (some considerable sh.t) and with the help of the (new and some older kids on the block) these mainly liberal protaginists and thinkers will proberbly help push the country deeper into trouble.

Firstly, I must admit that the vast Obama campain propaganda army of assistants and advisor team (did a wonderful CON JOB) or for those PC thinkers, a Marketing Miracle on the mainly white populace to get their vote, which pushed him over the finish line with a lot of spare gas in the tank.

It is patiently clear that the (vast majority) of afro americans voted for Barak and a good percentage of the white folks as well, he could not have made it without that solid white vote. Barak knows how to play the game of inclusion better than most and he did a wonderful feel good exercise, and of course they used Bush as one of their key weapons throughout the process

You or I might say, what con job, well it seems the main stream USA media did a wonderful sell on Barak and he himself is a great preacher and salesman, the problem is the product that was sold is now being unwrapped and is starting to look somewhat different from the product advertised. OK to get some balance, I must admit George Bush also sold the USA and me included a wonderful product description to get Regime chanage in Iraq, we all bought it hook line and sinker, not that I dont believe it was quite a good move, just that he should have tried to be more clear and tell us that the main reason was to get a friendly partner in that volitile region, I think that goal is getting closer.

Apart for the USA I believe most other countries of the world are now truly starting to feel the power of the crises which has developed. The UK is particularily starting to fold inwards with the bail out game in full swing.

Im not too sure if following Mugabe's plan of printing printng money will do the trick, maybe some SOB's whom prevoiusly were very efficient at shuffling paper and cooking the figures were to do some (constructive production work) and not just create false hope without a product at the end that we can feel and touch.

Also (which no politician) will dare mention is (world population) there are tooooooooooooo many people chasing too few jobs, the mainly unemployable population explosion will outstrip jobs no matter what is done, believe me, unless we start to address the population expansion worldwide we will never start to solve these world problems.

Too many unemployable people = WELFARE POVERTY or BOTH .. and neither will solve the world problems being faced

Although houses land and mortgages are a major issue at this time there will always be a safe haven (medium/long term) in property, but you need to work hard and own a property NOT mortgage yourself to infinity which is what sort of started this slippery slide.

The value of GOOD property will over time always increase. Just like with WILDLIFE as their habit shrinks they become vunerable valuable and get poached or hunted more. Same with good property, as it becomes rare it get snapped up by entreprenuer investors. In Zimbabwe it gets snapped up by poachers

Cheers,

Cheers, Peter

Peter: Good take with one exception. Your one line should more accurately read: "Yes, the WORLD is in (some considerable sh.t),and with the help of mainly liberal protagonists and thinkers will probably help push the WORLD deeper into trouble. . ."

quote:

Originally posted by Balla Balla: "the problem is the product that was sold is now being unwrapped and is starting to look somewhat different from the product advertise.

Good post, but that part pretty much says it all!

I agree with more sage commentators -- we're in deep excrement. But that's not a reason not to go hunting. You're going to be dead soon enough (hopefully a long time from now) but do you want to be remembered for what you did, or what you wish you did.

I'd pick someone you are comfortable with and book. Price notwithstanding. I think it's the multiple times African hunters that can gamble on a late discount booking -- once they know the players, situation, etc., and are willing to accept that it might by a cluster!!! I might take advantage of a late discount deal if I knew the players, but that's a really adventuresome approach. As one of my good friends often said, however, I'm in it for for the "story value".

quote:

I have a hard time buying what you are selling. Stick to sell guns on the internet

You don't have to buy what I am "selling" ... it's free for the taking or leaving, as you please.

The dollar is up (temporarily and off already low levels) precisely because the rest of the world is in the same boat, and people see the US dollar as a safe harbor. It certainly isn't up based on our balance of trade...or the rate of interest one can earn on t bills. The minute that dynamic changes (and that will be the minute the world realizes that the USA has overdosed on debt, a point in time that is rapidly approaching thanks to the prior and current administration), there will be dollar flight. In other words, vast sums of money will be withdrawn from US security markets by foreign investors, and invested elsewhere. The value of the dollar could fall by as much as another 50%.

I am sorry if my take offends some patriotic and/or democratic readers. And I don't care to divulge my personal financial particulars. I am not running for the Senate.

This is a forum, but unfortunately too many posters see it as a pissing contest.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

quote:

I have a hard time buying what you are selling. Stick to sell guns on the internet

You don't have to buy what I am "selling" ... it's free for the taking or leaving, as you please.

The dollar is up (temporarily and off already low levels) precisely because the rest of the world is in the same boat, and people see the US dollar as a safe harbor. It certainly isn't up based on our balance of trade...or the rate of interest one can earn on t bills. The minute that dynamic changes (and that will be the minute the world realizes that the USA has overdosed on debt, a point in time that is rapidly approaching thanks to the prior and current administration), there will be dollar flight. In other words, vast sums of money will be withdrawn from US security markets by foreign investors, and invested elsewhere. The value of the dollar could fall by as much as another 50%.

I am sorry if my take offends some patriotic and/or democratic readers. And I don't care to divulge my personal financial particulars. I am not running for the Senate.

This is a forum, but unfortunately too many posters see it as a pissing contest.

I have to agree with Russ on this one thing, he didn't ask anyone here to pay for the post he posted, and it is not a requirement for anyone to agree with him on anything! Why the pissing contest?

I also agree with Bala bala (Peter) completely, from one end of his post to the other! IMO, he hit the nail on the head!

However, since the ecconomy is not going to jump into the black too soon, if you are getting old, don't wait, book now! If you are young and want to go several times book now! If you have to take fewer trophies to make it happen, then shorten the list, but book while there is something left to shoot!

Once more, a seemingly innocent question, asking for information and opinions, turns into the predictable comments about the new President of the United States. GET OVER IT! The financial situation started before he came into office, and still has it's course to run. You will have your chance again in 4 years. In the mean time, I appreciate the (few) attempts to answer the actual question.
Peter.

Sorry, but off topic:

How are the finacial situation in US at this time?
Here in Norway the government is paying out the bank and industry problems, and they are expecting an increasing unimployment.
some huge numbers are expecting

I'm fighting some health problems so I decided to go now. Who knows if I will have the money or health later.

Elkfitter's post poignantly illustrates there are myriad factors to be considered whenever this question is asked. The older I get, the more I factor these issues into my decision making process. Time, health and family are our most precious commodities. I am not yet an old man, but my calendar does seem to be picking up speed.

While I certainly have to draw the line at some point, I no longer dicker over a few bucks. If I can't afford it, I don't buy it. But if I can, and I want it, I will.

Enjoy your hunt Elkfitter!!!

quote:

Enjoy your hunt Elkfitter!!!

+1, Peter.

I'd recommend booking now if what you want is available available right now at a price you can stand and for the dates you'd like. If not, wait until something is available at a convenient time and price.

Russ, Macd37,
You both are in my opine seeing it clearly, to many people feel ownership of these forums and are to eager to jump all over somebody who's gone over their line in the sand. I posted about 4 months ago about buying gold for an elderly gentleman who couldnt figure out how to afford an elephant. Gold has gone up about 60.00 oz since the house passed the spending bill. I made enough (profit) to go shoot a buff, if I sold yesterday. If the senate passes the bill and the presses start gold will most likely run to 1200.00 or even higher I'll would then make enough more to shoot several elephants. Russ, well said. GOLD GOLD GOLD. I wouldn't skof at Russ I think he's right on.
Chipolopolo

I recall, I think, when gold hit $1100 in the lat '70's although as I recall interest rates soon hit double digits and gold tumbled back to 400 or so. Also the time when one of the Hunt boys decided to "corner" the silver market - he also failed. Yes, we all have opinions and $$$holes. Who knows. I do KNOW, I will be in Zim for 15 days in May/June and that is a certainty, Lord a'willin and the creek don't rise.

Before anyone bets the farm on gold just make sure you are aware of the factors that make this seemingly black and white issue much more gray.

1) Jewlery makes up the vast majority of gold usage. With the bad economy gold used for jewlery has fallen by about 1/3 offsetting the increase in purchased coins and bullion by a large margin.

2) It is a World problem and not a US problem. Most of Europe has much higher unemployment and Spain, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Portugal all face or have already had credit downgrades on their debt. This is a HUGE problem for the EU and the Euro. The colapse of the Euro is a real possibility here as these weaker countries pull down stronger countries like Germany.

3) Asia is no better off, Japans stock market is at 26 years lows. China and India were down 65% last year.

4) It doesn't matter what people say but what they do, and what people and countries are doing is buying US Treasury bonds at record levels leading to these ridiculously low yields. Remember the Fed does not set long term rates, only short term. The market is looking for the safest investment and that is US treasuries.

My gut tells me inflation is coming and gold could be a good bet but it is no lock! Remember everything is relative and as bad as the US is, the rest of the world is worse hence the higher value of the dollar and super high Treasury prices (low yields).

Geoff,
For sure its no lock, HOWEVER, if you had say bought 200 oz tuesday you would be 12,000.00 up as of friday. Like I said a buffalo hunt. If it goes back to 1100.00 like in 70's I think the jumbos will be falling all over the continent. Gold is not only purchased for jewelry its is a safe hedge against wild inflation. But as said it usually goes the opposite way the dollar goes but with the other world currencies having all been hit. So it has not run yet. But I'll take my postion and cross my fingers. If it goes back to 400.00 I'll buy a bunch more. Another thing about gold is it has a tendency not to drop drastically allowing time to get out. Geoff, call a precious metals guy and try and buy maples, eagles or krugs. They are hard to find.
Chipolopolo

From today's news:

"As much as there's always been something slightly goofy, if not outright kooky, about gold bugs, you've got to hand it to them these days. Gold has soared about 50% in the last 52 weeks, while the dollar has dropped about 15%"

Don't mention it.

You said you were wanting to do a buff hunt, but were now planning to do a PG hunt instead.

Instead of booking right now, or waiting for a good last minute deal on a PG hunt, I'd say wait and save up and do the buffalo hunt that you really want to do.

quote:

Originally posted by muygrande:
I recall, I think, when gold hit $1100 in the lat '70's although as I recall interest rates soon hit double digits and gold tumbled back to 400 or so. Also the time when one of the Hunt boys decided to "corner" the silver market - he also failed. Yes, we all have opinions and $$$holes. Who knows. I do KNOW, I will be in Zim for 15 days in May/June and that is a certainty, Lord a'willin and the creek don't rise.

Gold made it to about $980 and Volcker raise the prime to 20% and gold tanked. I was in it up to my ears and did very well, getting in at a very low spot. The same thing's happening now. Too bad I don't heve the money now. I would have been into gold four years ago. My son in law has been and is up a couple hundred per cent. The dollar is going down the tube, all rose colored outlooks to the contrary. Now is the time to be in tangibles, not paper. I saw what Carter did. What's happening now makes Carter look like a piker.

If you're going hunting, go now. Your dollars may not buy a hunt in two or three years.

just from my personal experience: if you can go on short notice, like 2 weeks; check the discount aisle here. I got to hunt with IMHO THE best outfit in Zimbabwe, CM safaris last December. Had the absolute time of my life, got to see lots of game, worked my ass off for a nice Cape Buffalo, and came back planning how to return on the flight home.

The companies seem to sticking to their daily rates, but discounting game tags. I paid the regular price for an eight day safari, and got the Buff tag free. That made the deal.

The market was over 10,000 when it closed yesterday, and gold set a record high. That's crazy. We could be heading for a stagflation period. Growth is stagnant, but inflation rises. That's how cash value/equity disappears.

Go now if you can find a deal to suit you.

Rich
I can die happy: I've smelled wild Elephant and Cape Buffalo alive and up close...

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:

Book a real hunt for the dates that work for you, provide the best hunting and quota availability. Have a great hunt and don't screw yourself over a few bucks.

Mark

+1

+2