How far out can some of these hunts be booked? Specifically the dg hunts. With the prices keep going up its hard for the average person too drop 25'000 at one time. Too most people I'd say that is a third of there yearly income.

Please accept this as what it is, an opinion. There are outfitters in Tanzania, calling booking agents telling them, they have ZERO clients booked for the remainder of the season.

My point, if you can be ready, go on short notice, your 25k might buy you 21 days in TZ.

Steve

Thanks for the input.you might be able too get 21 days of daily rates but unless I've missed something and you do know more about it than myself. That's all it would get some of the charters I've seen run from 2500-7500 in Tanzania.

They might have finally priced themselves out of the market

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
Please accept this as what it is, an opinion. There are outfitters in Tanzania, calling booking agents telling them, they have ZERO clients booked for the remainder of the season.

My point, if you can be ready, go on short notice, your 25k might buy you 21 days in TZ.

Steve

Steve..if that is true it is terrible news for the safari industry.

I have no reason to make that up. You can negotiate this nearly all in for that, minus trophy fee's. Some areas don't require a charter. A secondary commercial flight and a longish drive to camp.

Be aggressive, expand your horizon of booking agents. These are not depleted areas either.

Imagine being one safari into a season and no more clients.

Steve

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
I have no reason to make that up. You can negotiate this nearly all in for that, minus trophy fee's. Some areas don't require a charter. A secondary commercial flight and a longish drive to camp.

Be aggressive, expand your horizon of booking agents. These are not depleted areas either.

Imagine being one safari into a season and no more clients.

Steve

Not doubting you at all , just extremely concerned about the future of these areas/ wildlife .

In support of what Steve points out, I will repeat my claim, originally made a few years ago when I saw the pending trend of safari hunting: The governments of Africa, and some of the outfitters, are in the process of killing the Golden Goose, which is the American middle-class safari hunter. Once you price the middle-class American hunter out of the market, your business will suffer dramatically.

While I have little faith that most of the government authorities on the continent have little to any understanding of what I speak, the outfitters ought to know better! Unfortunately many do not.

Unless some drastic changes are made, and I have no reason nor indicator to believe they will be anytime soon (if ever), the Golden Goose is beginning to gasp its' death bellow.

Mores the pity!

Got it. With no clients, no money, no money, no anti-poaching.

Steve

quote:

Originally posted by LionHunter:
In support of what Steve points out, I will repeat my claim, originally made a few years ago when I saw the pending trend of safari hunting: The governments of Africa, and some of the outfitters, are in the process of killing the Golden Goose, which is the American middle-class safari hunter. Once you price the middle-class American hunter out of the market, your business will suffer dramatically.

While I have little faith that most of the government authorities on the continent have little to any understanding of what I speak, the outfitters ought to know better! Unfortunately many do not.

Unless some drastic changes are made, and I have no reason nor indicator to believe they will be anytime soon (if ever), the Golden Goose is beginning to gasp its' death bellow.

Mores the pity!

+1

The average price of a Zim Buffalo and plains game hunt has gone up between 40%-50% between 2010 and today. At least for me it is reaching a point of "not being worth the money."

These are some good deals on plains game hunts in Botswana. But DG hunting is getting stupidly expensive relative to other discretionary activity - a nice vacation at a fancy resort.

How many other discretionary consumer items (especially non durable consumption activity) that have gone up 40%-50% in last 4 years? I would not peg a buffalo hunt to the S&P 500. If one wants to extrapolate the pricing trends for last 4-5 years a decade out your average buffalo hunt will cost $40K plus. I don't think that is sustainable.

If the trend in prices increase continues there will be very few to no middle class American hunters hunting dangerous game. I don't think most African hunting (in English speaking Africa) operations are sustainable without American hunters.

I expect to see a lot more specials advertised on AR and a trend towards all in pricing.

We will see but I am most likely sitting out DG hunting at these prices.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
Please accept this as what it is, an opinion. There are outfitters in Tanzania, calling booking agents telling them, they have ZERO clients booked for the remainder of the season.

My point, if you can be ready, go on short notice, your 25k might buy you 21 days in TZ.

Steve

Steve,

Please give me the details of 21 day safari in Tanzania for 25K!

I must be doing something drastically wrong to pay the prices I pay??!!

I gotta say
Steve is right, the prices are quite out of touch for lots of us in just few short years
Simple economics, nothing lasts forever and nothing goes up forever
Yes, you price middle class out, you're on your own
It's like that in any business and life goes on...

Our last hunt in Zim I paid the daily rates in full 2 years in advance, the quote I got was significantly higher than the website price at the time. I doubt if you will easily get a pay 2014 price for a 2016 hunt. For me it was still worth it seeing that the Rand devalued by 30% in those 2 years.
I don't see another Zim hunt in my near future between unsustainable increases in hunting fees and buying US $ with a 3rd World currency.
On the other hand as a resident I am lucky, the wife and I spent 4 weeks hunting plains game this year. We got magnificent trophies, saw beautifull animals, birds and places, stayed in brick and mortar buildings, had our washing done, had lots of help skinning and guided ourselves for the equivalent of 4 days daily rate in Zim!
Some would say it is not the same as we didn't hunt so called wild unfenced Africa, well I have seen a lot of Africa south of the Zambezi and when we were hunting I didn't hanker after the Zambezi Valley or the remoteness of the Kaokoland, I was too busy hunting and having fun!

So one the one hand, hunt prices can be negotiated down to very low prices and on the other, Outfitters are screwing everyone over and killing the goose that lays the golden egg?

To me at least, that seems to suggest there must be some misunderstanding about how things work in the safari industry.

Sure you can get cheap deals and the truth is you always could but as with everything else in life, you only get what you pay for or more precisely, you don't get what you don't pay for and quality comes at a price....... and as I've said on more than one occasion, there's not many people get rich from the safari industry.

There are of course also other factors to be considered. Govt fees always go up regularly but so do fuel costs, food costs, vehicle costs, labour costs & everything else so we just have to accept that. We also have to accept that recent years have seen the world and his dog suddenly become agents who incidentally still take a similar percentage as they did decades ago but as prices have increased their percentage hasn't reduced....... then of course, there's the marketing costs. Most safari companies feel compelled to attend the convention circuit nowadays and costs of that are truly obscene....... but they do have to be passed on to the customers as any advertising/marketing cost has to be passed on to the customers in any other business.

Now let's take a step back in time and look back at costs just before the wonders of jet travel opened the world to us. Then, hunters would (mostly) have to book several years ahead, access Africa by ship then train and would be away for months on end....... Then look at the average salary for the average working joe and you'll see that hunting Africa then was FAR beyond the purse of any but a very few. So therefore one could argue that hunting Africa has become considerably more affordable over the years.

The truth is that outfitting African safaris is a business just like any other business and have to be run as such and African safari prices are what they are so either get used to it or book a cheaper hunt than you'd ideally want or book a hunt in your home country if you can't afford an African safari.

If I had to name one single reason for the most significant price rises in recent years, I'd say it's the conventions. There's more of them and exhibition, donation, hotel, hospitality, airline and all other related costs are ever increasing.

Given the uncertainties of Africa...outfitters going under, governments closing hunting, species becoming unimportable, I think anyone who books any hunt more than a year in advance is a bit nutty. Do you really want to be trying to get your money back from a defunct outfitter in Africa because your species becomes unimportable or the country closes hunting between when you book and when the hunt is supposed to occur? Not me! Further, I have always found that the last minute deals to be had at any point in time are usually better than any "discount" one might get by booking far in advance. In short, even if prices go up in the two or three years between booking/"locking in" a price and the actual hunt time, I think last minute deals of today will very likely be cheaper than the (at best!) "regular retail" prices of two or three years ago which is what you will (if lucky!) have locked in when you booked.

My advice: Horde cash in an investment fund for two or three years and then shop around at the end of a season with an outfitter of good reputation, for the species that are currently available, and in the countries that are still open. Lately, things are just changing too quickly in the African hunting game to book so far in advance and besides, it is often/usually cheaper to do otherwise anyway.

Now, the other option, if we are talking about a particular species that MIGHT become unimportable in a country that MIGHT close is to simply borrow the funds at what are now really low interest rates and shop at the end of the season TODAY. The interest you pay over the two years paying off said loan might just be worth getting the species you want in the area you want. How about borrowing from your 401K? Take some money off the table in why might be a shaky stock market, pay the interest to yourself, and go hunting. Frankly, it may be well worth it as I imagine there were more than a few guys really sad about the insufficient horde of cash they had accumulated for a Tiger hunt when India closed. It is not so inconceivable to think of a similar group of guys crying in their beers when Lion or Elephant or Rhino (in their chosen area or generally) closes or becomes unimportable.

There are many discounted or fairly priced hunts available here on AR. Especially late season and often this is prime time for hunting.

I for one cannot price for the future as things change so quickly in Africa.

Best bet at the moment is Buffalo in wild Africa where you mix it with DG and embrace the ambience of old Africa.

Stay clear of the 'I have a problem Lion and it keeps nicking the towels from the sauna' sort of bullshit.

There is nothing surprising to me about outfitters jacking up their prices to the limit and beyond. If they see the end coming, they want to build a stake before it is all done.

I saw the same thing in Hong Kong, where a few years ago, the prices of fine custom tailored suits -- and even those not so fine -- rose dramatically. It got to the point that the bargains were all gone. I could buy a tailored suit in Japan using English or Italian worsted for less than I could in HK. There are no bargains on anything else, either.

I do not travel as much anymore, so I haven't bought in Bangkok or Shanghai, where there still seem to be bargains, but HK is no longer a shopping destination for me, even though my son lives there.

I have a close friend that booked and paid $25,000 for a Zim elephant hunt, two years in advance. The outfit went out of business and he lost all of it.
This was 2-3 years ago. I don't know the name of the safari company.
My friend admitted that he was stupid to put that much money up front.

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:
So one the one hand, hunt prices can be negotiated down to very low prices and on the other, Outfitters are screwing everyone over and killing the goose that lays the golden egg?

To me at least, that seems to suggest there must be some misunderstanding about how things work in the safari industry.

Sure you can get cheap deals and the truth is you always could but as with everything else in life, you only get what you pay for or more precisely, you don't get what you don't pay for and quality comes at a price....... and as I've said on more than one occasion, there's not many people get rich from the safari industry.

There are of course also other factors to be considered. Govt fees always go up regularly but so do fuel costs, food costs, vehicle costs, labour costs & everything else so we just have to accept that. We also have to accept that recent years have seen the world and his dog suddenly become agents who incidentally still take a similar percentage as they did decades ago but as prices have increased their percentage hasn't reduced....... then of course, there's the marketing costs. Most safari companies feel compelled to attend the convention circuit nowadays and costs of that are truly obscene....... but they do have to be passed on to the customers as any advertising/marketing cost has to be passed on to the customers in any other business.

Now let's take a step back in time and look back at costs just before the wonders of jet travel opened the world to us. Then, hunters would (mostly) have to book several years ahead, access Africa by ship then train and would be away for months on end....... Then look at the average salary for the average working joe and you'll see that hunting Africa then was FAR beyond the purse of any but a very few. So therefore one could argue that hunting Africa has become considerably more affordable over the years.

The truth is that outfitting African safaris is a business just like any other business and have to be run as such and African safari prices are what they are so either get used to it or book a cheaper hunt than you'd ideally want or book a hunt in your home country if you can't afford an African safari.

If I had to name one single reason for the most significant price rises in recent years, I'd say it's the conventions . There's more of them and exhibition, donation, hotel, hospitality, airline and all other related costs are ever increasing.

From what little I know...I would say the one most influencing factor is the government greed.

Excluding one or two countries such as Tanzania who pretty much have a unique product, govt fees are generally not overly expensive but the convention circuit costs always are.

I am really not looking for a boggie man in the closet on this. It is as simple as supply and demand. Right now in piss poor economic times the booking dates outweight the booked hunts and the price goes south.

If I remember, AAZ went on one of these late season, short notice Tanzania safaris extra cheap. I also seem to remember he shot the place up pretty good. I also don't think it spells trouble for the safrai industry that a better economy won't fix.

I think the larger issue for the industry is how to replace the old blood. There is just less intereest in a long and complex safari in the upcoming demographic of tech kids.

Regards,

Steve

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
I am really not looking for a boggie man in the closet on this. It is as simple as supply and demand. Right now in piss poor economic times the booking dates outweight the booked hunts and the price goes south.

If I remember, AAZ went on one of these late season, short notice Tanzania safaris extra cheap. I also seem to remember he shot the place up pretty good. I also don't think it spells trouble for the safrai industry that a better economy won't fix.

I think the larger issue for the industry is how to replace the old blood. There is just less intereest in a long and complex safari in the upcoming demographic of tech kids.

Regards,

Steve

And looking to get a whole lot worse before it even begins to get any better!

And that's without even beginning to consider the possible spread of ebola.

Hi Steve,
Considering safari hunting is (or should) funded by 100% disposable, dicretionary income, that is obviously down for most. The ultra wealthly will continue to do as they wish. There are just not enough of them to fund an entire industry.

Oh, on your ebola comment, you're a chicken shit if you allow that into your decision to travel to west Africa. (Or so I was told last week)

Steve

I agree with Steve A. and Lane.
Lane has brought up very valid point, African govs greed.
In the end economics will figure things out.
As long as African govs and USFWA don't mess with it too much
But in the end more than half the hunters don't have deep pockets so industry should keep that in mind...

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails. I guess I will try to be a realist. A suspect that the conversations about the safari industry being a dying business, that the days of going on safari are drawing to a close, that going forward only the uber rich will be able to hunt, that the political situation/geo-political situation/pandemic concerns mean that alternative hobbies need to be considered, etc., will still be going strong ten and twenty years from now when folks are still going on safari. The same was the case ten or twenty years ago. Times change and the business will evolve to deal with that change.

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
Hi Steve,
Considering safari hunting is (or should) funded by 100% disposable, dicretionary income, that is obviously down for most. The ultra wealthly will continue to do as they wish. There are just not enough of them to fund an entire industry.

Oh, on your ebola comment, you're a chicken shit if you allow that into your decision to travel to west Africa. (Or so I was told last week)

Steve

Steve

I agree such spending should be funded by disposable/discretionary income but it's actually a relatively recent thing for working guys to have that but of course, whether they'll continue to have that with what's going on in the world is a different matter and time will tell on that..... my main point is not many people in the safari industry get rich from it and in fact, many of the PHs will probably earn less in a day than some here (who can afford an occasional safari) earn in an hour.

As for the ebola. The news here is that it's spread to several other (African) places outside of west Africa and more worryingly has spread to several places outside of Africa....... if that happens or rather if it continues to spread, you can bet your life the booking rate for African hunting safaris will drop dramatically.

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:
...African safari prices are what they are so either get used to it or book a cheaper hunt than you'd ideally want or book a hunt in your home country if you can't afford an African safari...

When it comes to PG, a 7 day PG Safari in RSA where one can bag multiple species is the same or even cheaper than a run of the mill 6 day Elk hunt in Wyoming even factoring in plane fares. The only thing extra of course is the additional time one might have to take off for travel.

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:
...African safari prices are what they are so either get used to it or book a cheaper hunt than you'd ideally want or book a hunt in your home country if you can't afford an African safari...

When it comes to PG, a 7 day PG Safari in RSA where one can bag multiple species is the same or even cheaper than a run of the mill 6 day Elk hunt in Wyoming even factoring in plane fares. The only thing extra of course is the additional time one might have to take off for travel.

Then prices for such African hunts are pretty damn good then........ perhaps the fact that fewer people (in the US esp) can afford them might be because they have a shite President who has spent the last few years successfully destroying the economy.

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Ahrenberg:
Hi Steve,
Considering safari hunting is (or should) funded by 100% disposable, dicretionary income, that is obviously down for most. The ultra wealthly will continue to do as they wish. There are just not enough of them to fund an entire industry.

Oh, on your ebola comment, you're a chicken shit if you allow that into your decision to travel to west Africa. (Or so I was told last week)

Steve

Steve

I agree such spending should be funded by disposable/discretionary income but it's actually a relatively recent thing for working guys to have that but of course, whether they'll continue to have that with what's going on in the world is a different matter and time will tell on that..... my main point is not many people in the safari industry get rich from it and in fact, many of the PHs will probably earn less in a day than some here (who can afford an occasional safari) earn in an hour.

As for the ebola. The news here is that it's spread to several other (African) places outside of west Africa and more worryingly has spread to several places outside of Africa....... if that happens or rather if it continues to spread, you can bet your life the booking rate for African hunting safaris will drop dramatically.

Many government officials line their pockets with Safari hunting money.

Look at the trophy fee increases in Zim the last 10 years while this same period has seen a drastic drop in discretionary income.

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:
Excluding one or two countries such as Tanzania who pretty much have a unique product...

Can you expand on this please in regards to the "unique product"?

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails. I guess I will try to be a realist. A suspect that the conversations about the safari industry being a dying business, that the days of going on safari are drawing to a close, that going forward only the uber rich will be able to hunt, that the political situation/geo-political situation/pandemic concerns mean that alternative hobbies need to be considered, etc., will still be going strong ten and twenty years from now when folks are still going on safari. The same was the case ten or twenty years ago. Times change and the business will evolve to deal with that change.

Hi Mike,
I really don't think it is a pessimistic view to discuss the hurdles we all face in planning and successfully implementing a complex safari. All the things you listed come into play.

When I was in SCI, at a BOD meeting we had an AZGFD commissioner address their concerns at a meeting. Number one concern; the lost generation. Without a robust hunting demographic, the, industry funded AZGFD has no funds. Point being, if they just decided to be an optimist and disregard the potential loss of funding, THAT would be irresponsible.

For me, I use to go two to three times a year. Now, i plan carefully and try to get as much bang for my buck in new country as is humanly possible. If things ever return to 2005-2006 times, I will be the beneficiary of many more frequent flier miles.

Good Sunday all,

Steve

tanks

There's not a country in Africa that has anything even similar to what Tanzania has by way of wildlife or reserves etc...... for example, according to the Frankfurt Zoological Society, the country and IIRC, the Selous alone has more buffalo than the rest of all of southern and east Africa combined.

That said, the rampant poaching is no doubt taking it's toll (esp on elephant) on that and if the Steigler's Gorge Dam Project ever happens (and it very well may) that situation will change dramatically.

As for Govt officials having their fingers in the till of hunting finances....... Karibu Africa. It happens all over the continent and with every single hard currency earner from hunting to foreign aid to tourism and that ain't gonna change any time soon.

Steve,

Certainly nothing wrong in planning for the worst and hoping for the best. We all should do that. My point was simply that I am sure the demise of safari hunting has been discussed for many years and while the nature of safari hunting changes, countries come and go, costs go up and costs come down, safari hunting continues. Boddington actually does a great job of discussing this in some of his talks like the one he recently did at the Houston Safari Club. Sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I sure hope that is the case with safari hunting. Have a great rest of the weekend.

It seems the sky has always been falling somewhere in Africa.
While it is true that some places become off limits while others open up, we have to deal with the info we have at that particular time.
I am 13 months away from my next safari, but will monitor ALL conditions before boarding a plane.
I will not go if I think there is a chance that I could bring something deadly back to my loved ones.
I'll be praying for the best, but also planning for the worst.

I think everyone has valid points
I think all of these are excellent discussion and give all of us better perspective.
Everyone knows there is no stupid questions, only stupid answers
One point-
if African countries ever figured how to make money regular capitalistic way, we'd be all better off in long run

Reb -

You can book 2 and 3 years out. In some cases you have to do that as it all full. Or maybe full at a particular time.

Obviously there are other ways and things do change and some other opportunit9ies pop up. There have been some deals right here in the offered trip section.

Gents,
I put a 2nd mortgage on my house to finance my DG safari in Zambia 22 years ago. Our 2012 DG safari in Zim cost my wife and I more than we net in a year. We may die owing money on that trip, but we won't die wishing we had gone!
Cheers,
Tim

quote:

Originally posted by Tim Ferrall:
We may die owing money on that trip, but we won't die wishing we had gone!
Cheers,
Tim

That's a man with his priorities straight!

Well gentlemen, it has already priced me out of the game! Once retired for a few years, the lack of discretionary funds have become a factor!

I just consider myself lucky to have done some good Buffalo and plains game hunts in Africa while still working!

For those fortunate enough to continue safari hunting in Africa, I say go for it while you can!

.....................................................................

quote:

I put a 2nd mortgage on my house to finance my DG safari in Zambia 22 years ago. Our 2012 DG safari in Zim cost my wife and I more than we net in a year. We may die owing money on that trip, but we won't die wishing we had gone!

To each his own, but I would never borrow money for a safari, if I don't have the cash on hand I don't go.
As far as "we may die owing" I would be thinking what if I died & left my widow to pay on MY debt.
I definitely have enough life insurance to cover such a debt, but I would not want it to go for something other than her needs for the rest of her life.
I only borrow money for the things I absolutely need & do not have the cash on hand to pay with.
There may be things in life that I never experience, but leaving my family to cover my debts ain't gonna happen.
I am not trying to criticize or tell anyone else what to do, this is just the way I feel about it.