How will the current economic crisis affect the booking of hunts and their prices?

Prices will go up permanently, and bookings will go down temporarily.

There is no shortage of suckers.

George

quote:

Originally posted by GeorgeS:
Prices will go up permanently, and bookings will go down temporarily.

There is no shortage of suckers.

George

Truer words were never spoken!

Very interesting

My impression is that there are more open dates and cancellations than usual these days, and consequently more discounted deals are being offered than in the recent past.

Eric,

Don't look for any discounts particularly in government owned safari areas. The governments in the countries offering safaris don't care what the economic situation is in the US. They are charging the safari companies X$$ to operate on the concession and a trophy fee for each animal. Then the safari company has to charge enough to cover expenses and make a small profit on top of the government expenses. This allows the safari company very little wiggle room.

Mark

quote:

Originally posted by mrlexma:
My impression is that there are more open dates and cancellations than usual these days, and consequently more discounted deals are being offered than in the recent past.

Spot on, as usual.

quote:

Don't look for any discounts particularly in government owned safari areas. The governments in the countries offering safaris don't care what the economic situation is in the US. They are charging the safari companies X$$ to operate on the concession and a trophy fee for each animal.

And I hope these governments and countries spend a few years eating these rates. The prices are just getting stupid.

quote:

Originally posted by tradewinds:

quote:

Don't look for any discounts particularly in government owned safari areas. The governments in the countries offering safaris don't care what the economic situation is in the US. They are charging the safari companies X$$ to operate on the concession and a trophy fee for each animal.

And I hope these governments and countries spend a few years eating these rates. The prices are just getting stupid.

The extrapolation of that is that if the safari companies have no wriggle room then they may have less clients able to pay up, and concessions get surrendered...

I don't think this will happen widely as there is no shortage of people able and willing to pay for hunts, but the waiting lists may come down a bit.

Rgds,
FB

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
Eric,

Don't look for any discounts particularly in government owned safari areas. The governments in the countries offering safaris don't care what the economic situation is in the US. They are charging the safari companies X$$ to operate on the concession and a trophy fee for each animal. Then the safari company has to charge enough to cover expenses and make a small profit on top of the government expenses. This allows the safari company very little wiggle room.

Mark

True statement Mark, with one slight problem.

The government in Tanzania, for instance, charges a few thousand dollars for the concession. And those who have political connections get these concessions, then sell these at rediculously inflated prices.

There is more discounted right now than I have seen. Been following it for ten years.

Of course there will be more deals and discounts as bookings drop off. Just like there was the year after 9/11/01.

Booking agents will tell you that it ain't so. Just like a used car salesmen will tell you they ain't got any wiggle room on that green 88 Pinto. They have to make a living too.

quote:

Then the safari company has to charge enough to cover expenses and make a small profit on top of the government expenses. This allows the safari company very little wiggle room.

While there must be some margin of profit for the operation to remain in business, the question remains what is reasonable under current economic conditions? Supply and demand will determin what is reasonable or even if that operation remains viable.

I think you gentleman are seeing something different than I am and perhaps I'm niave but I just do not see a noticeable drop off in the safari business. There has been some leftover inventory in Zim because of the election gitters but bookings otherwise are not down and '08 has been very good.

I guess the point is if people are thinking that they will wait to book after prices come down they may be waiting indefinitely. My advise is as always to book well ahead of your desired safari dates to get those dates and have a pick of all the available quota. You also can often cement your daily fees against future increases.

Mark

Mark- I am getting an average of three emails/week now with discounts. About 2/3 of these are African. Many of them are cancellations.

Our partner in Zim has been busier this year than ever before. Bookings were very strong early this year for the Zambezi Valley, and for the most part, the clients showed up.

Having said that, we have (and others too) discounted buff in Tanzania, as well as a small number of discounted late season buff hunts in Zim (see "Discounted hunts" forum). We have a deal in Namibia on PG. This is quite normal at the end of the season. In fact, in Zim there was more leftover quota last year than this year.

If you are a sucker for booking a hunt in Africa as one cynic states above, then I can only conclude from reading hunt reports on this and similar forums, that there are plenty of deliriously happy "suckers" out there.

Regarding the "economic crisis", I think this is largely a media invention, fueled of course by politicians who have a vested interest in making things look worse than they are. If you look at the actual number/percent of non-performing subprime mortgages, you will also scratch your head. I think it's about 3% of all mortgages. Correct me if I am wrong. Yes, home prices have fallen from their peak values. Yes, a couple of badly managed companies have been liquidated or acquired. Yes, fuel prices are high. But for the most part, this is money out of one pocket into another. The folks in the oil patch are rolling in money, and realtors, contractors and mortgage brokers have been on a roll for 10 years. Losses on home values, for the vast majority, are paper losses, and most people are still sitting on gains. The stock market is still pretty lofty by historic standards. There have been some individual issues and sectors that have taken a beating, while others have done well. High fuel prices are only high because they were unusually low for many years. By historic standards they are in line with inflation, and a lot cheaper than Europeans pay.

The one thing that is a factor in pricing is the weak dollar. For the most part, the outfitters have taken the brunt of the damage. Europeans have benefited. Americans are neutral. Next season, US dollar prices will probably go up for this reason alone.

The sad sacks out there are for the most part folks who lived beyond their means, spent the equity in their homes, bought holiday homes and timeshares with money they did not have, and invested in shaky paper without applying their gray matter. Now they want the more conservative folks who didn't indulge, to bail them out. I have two words for such people. The first word has two letters. The second word is "yours".

I think that discounted hunts will pick up with the latest economic developments, as everyone's business is suffering and an African Hunt is (God forbid I even find myself saying this) not a basic need, but a want, and a want for only those with available, expendable income not required for their basic needs. Most people across the spectrum of society have tightened up financially. Yes, the greed and foolishness of many has been the driving force, but it has, unfortunately, affected us all. Just my two cents' worth.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
Regarding the "economic crisis", I think this is largely a media invention, fueled of course by politicians who have a vested interest in making things look worse than they are. If you look at the actual number/percent of non-performing subprime mortgages, you will also scratch your head. I think it's about 3% of all mortgages. Correct me if I am wrong. Yes, home prices have fallen from their peak values. Yes, a couple of badly managed companies have been liquidated or acquired. Yes, fuel prices are high. But for the most part, this is money out of one pocket into another. The folks in the oil patch are rolling in money, and realtors, contractors and mortgage brokers have been on a roll for 10 years. Losses on home values, for the vast majority, are paper losses, and most people are still sitting on gains. The stock market is still pretty lofty by historic standards. There have been some individual issues and sectors that have taken a beating, while others have done well. High fuel prices are only high because they were unusually low for many years. By historic standards they are in line with inflation, and a lot cheaper than Europeans pay.

The sad sacks out there are for the most part folks who lived beyond their means, spent the equity in their homes, bought holiday homes and timeshares with money they did not have, and invested in shaky paper without applying their gray matter. Now they want the more conservative folks who didn't indulge, to bail them out. I have two words for such people. The first word has two letters. The second word is "yours".

That may be the case where you live, similar to my state. However, Michigan, Ohio, etc. have seen dramatic decreases in home values, well over 50% in some areas. I was there this summer; its very, very bad in some places. Not all of these people lived beyond their means. Many were part of the false economy of the UAW union and were over paid for too long. Others are engineers now laid off and leaving their homes to the banks and moving out of state.

We'll bounce back but its going to take a while in the midwest.

While I've only been on the African hunting scene for about four year now, I've got to say that I've seen a remarkable increase in discounted hunting opportunities over the past year, especially this year. Being a cheap bastard, I notice these things. Unfortunately, I've not been in a position to take advantage of any of these hunts. I've had good deals floated in front of me from Africa, to Argentina to Alaska to New Mexico. Being caughat up in the real estate crunch to a certain extent as well, I've had to settle on a white tail hunt in Kansas.

I'll add that the same big swinging dicks that I've seen going on far away hunts for years are having a hard time paying their local hunt club dues. It's not a pretty time.

I now see more trip cancellations on Cabelas web site than I ever have before.

I am patiently waiting for my Government Bail out so I will have $$$$ to take advantage of some of these hunt.

That's it lets all band together and petition the Gov. to give us just a few Billion of tax payer money so we can make sure the hunting industry does not deteriorate an effect the economy.

Seems kinda hard to believe there hasn't been a drop in the safari business when you look at AR's discounted hunt forum.

There have been quite a few discounted hunts in Tanzania this year.

Tanzanias problems are no surprise. Who didn't see that coming! What is a surprise is seeing some of the big name, well established companies in excellent areas that have hunts left un-booked for this year. If the big guys are hurting, you know the little guys are hurting as well.

quote:

Originally posted by Jorge400:
Being caughat up in the real estate crunch to a certain extent as well, I've had to settle on a white tail hunt in Kansas.

Hard times, they's effectin' all of us!

My heart goes out to you. We all must make our sacrifices.

quote:

The sad sacks out there are for the most part folks who lived beyond their means, spent the equity in their homes, bought holiday homes and timeshares with money they did not have, and invested in shaky paper without applying their gray matter. Now they want the more conservative folks who didn't indulge, to bail them out. I have two words for such people. The first word has two letters. The second word is "yours".

My feelings also.....but in other parts of the country it COULD be different.

quote:

Originally posted by Wendell Reich:

quote:

Originally posted by Jorge400:
Being caughat up in the real estate crunch to a certain extent as well, I've had to settle on a white tail hunt in Kansas.

Hard times, they's effectin' all of us!

My heart goes out to you. We all must make our sacrifices.

True that! But I sure would have liked to have gone to NM with you.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
Our partner in Zim has been busier this year than ever before. Bookings were very strong early this year for the Zambezi Valley, and for the most part, the clients showed up.

Having said that, we have (and others too) discounted buff in Tanzania, as well as a small number of discounted late season buff hunts in Zim (see "Discounted hunts" forum). We have a deal in Namibia on PG. This is quite normal at the end of the season. In fact, in Zim there was more leftover quota last year than this year.

If you are a sucker for booking a hunt in Africa as one cynic states above, then I can only conclude from reading hunt reports on this and similar forums, that there are plenty of deliriously happy "suckers" out there.

Regarding the "economic crisis", I think this is largely a media invention, fueled of course by politicians who have a vested interest in making things look worse than they are. If you look at the actual number/percent of non-performing subprime mortgages, you will also scratch your head. I think it's about 3% of all mortgages. Correct me if I am wrong. Yes, home prices have fallen from their peak values. Yes, a couple of badly managed companies have been liquidated or acquired. Yes, fuel prices are high. But for the most part, this is money out of one pocket into another. The folks in the oil patch are rolling in money, and realtors, contractors and mortgage brokers have been on a roll for 10 years. Losses on home values, for the vast majority, are paper losses, and most people are still sitting on gains. The stock market is still pretty lofty by historic standards. There have been some individual issues and sectors that have taken a beating, while others have done well. High fuel prices are only high because they were unusually low for many years. By historic standards they are in line with inflation, and a lot cheaper than Europeans pay.

The one thing that is a factor in pricing is the weak dollar. For the most part, the outfitters have taken the brunt of the damage. Europeans have benefited. Americans are neutral. Next season, US dollar prices will probably go up for this reason alone.

The sad sacks out there are for the most part folks who lived beyond their means, spent the equity in their homes, bought holiday homes and timeshares with money they did not have, and invested in shaky paper without applying their gray matter. Now they want the more conservative folks who didn't indulge, to bail them out. I have two words for such people. The first word has two letters. The second word is "yours".

You couldn't be more wrong.

9% of ALL yes ALL not just subprime mortgages in the US are in default meaning delinquent or in foreclosure.

It is total BS that it is caused by the media, the market has actually been extremely SLOW to react to the obvious writing on the wall of the down turn in the economy. Our economy is 70+% driven by consumer spending. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out higher inflation through food, fuel etc comes right out of the economy. Add to that tighter credit standards and consumer spending and the economy shrinking by the second.

Again, total BS on it being good for politicians.

And a couple of badly managed companies, are you kidding me!!! AIG was THE BIGGEST insurance company in the WORLD. The WORLD. They have 75,000,000 policy holders worldwide.

Oh and two more of those companies called Freddie and Fannie just happen to hold 70% of ALL the mortgages in the US.

I'm glad you think the negative real return of the S&P 500 over the last 10 years is historically lofty but I'm afraid you'll have a tough time finding members for your club.

The average joe has NO IDEA how serious this is.

I'll leave you with the words that Paulson and Bernanke told congress “that we’re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications here at home and globally.â€

GeoffM24 ...... well said !!!

And the two guys who are seeing nothing but sunshine are the ones who'd like to sell you that lime green 88 Pinto.

I don't claim to have all the answers but I'd have to say that 09 bookings are going to suffer unless something drastic changes between now and the hunting shows early next year.

Geoff, it sounds like you represent the vocal minority that are yelling "Bail me out, the sky is falling" i.e. it's not my fault I am a deadbeat. Last time I checked, every mortgage was an agreement between a willing borrower and a willing lender, both adults, and there are several places where both parties sign. If the willing borrower can't repay because they didn't read/understand the agreement, or they did read it but figured the market would go even higher so no problem, we'll just refi when the rate adjusts; and the willing lender is squeezed due to their conscious decision to make risky loand and to magnify that risk with various leverage strategies, that's a matter between those two parties. Don't come looking to me or others like me who did not indulge for a bailout.

Your statistics are distorted by the inclusion of "delinquent" mortgages. I am pretty sure the number of foreclosures is 3% of all mortgaged residential property, and there are plenty of residences without mortgages. So less than 3% of resi property is in foreclosure. Delinquencies include loans that being paid, but are late to some greater or lesser degree.

The fact that a company is big doesn't make it well-managed. In fact the bigger they are, the more likely they are to be mismanaged. Freddie and Fannie succumbed to political ideologies and greedy management. They were implementing the liberal agenda, houses for all. How about going after Mr. Raines for some of the $90 million he pocketed from this scam?

And nobody is more delighted with this than Obama. Well perhaps Pelosi is. It's all Bush's and the Republicans' fault that this bubble has burst. I don't see it that way. If anything, it was pressure from Democrats to loan money to the marginal home buyer that contributed to this situation. But by and large, it was the "ME ME ME, NOW NOW NOW" mindset that brought this on.

I didn't say the media created the problem, I just said they have blown it out of proportion. That wouldn't be the first time.

Doesn't anyone remember the internet bubble?

The DOW broke through 1000 for the first time in the mid 80s I think it was. Now it's above 11,000. Horrors! Yes, some of it is inflation, but you have to remember that equities pay dividends and I doubt you have taken those into your calculus when you state that the markets have delivered negative returns over the last ten years. Also, 10 years ago was 1998......nice try...lies, damn lies, and statistics.

In order for the country to be in recession, we have to see consecutive quarters of negative growth. Last quarter, the economy grew 3% or thereabouts. If we are in a depression, how come the economy is still growing?

So you are entitled to your opinion, and you can intimate that I am the fool that doesn't know what I am talking about all you want, but you and your ilk are not entitled to my money. As before, two words.

The '09 DSC show will be a real good indicator of what's to come. I'm thinking there will be many more tire kickers and a lot fewer 'keys' being passed back and forth.
I'm one who likes a good deal. A real good deal. I'm not opposed to picking up a hunt that someone else already paid part of.
And as far as some of the thoughts on the economy are, we haven't begun to see the layoffs yet. They are coming. And when they do it will be in waves...

Russ, I have thought some of your Business Practices could use some polish, but you are SPOT ON with your last post.

After reading GeoffM24's post I was putting together a response when I read your's, you saved me the effort.

GeoffM24, , not a personal attack, but IMHO, you are dead wrong.

GeoffM24 is absolutely correct. I will add one more thing.

Under and deregulation of the financial industry has come damned close during this past week to causing another deep economic depression not only in this country but in the entire world, and it's not over yet. It seems like some of us will never learn that rampant greed is not good, and that unchecked by enlightened regulation it spawns nothing but trouble, for one and all.

I don't like bailing out the stupid or the greedy any more than anyone else does. But if there are enough of them on the ship with you, and you don't start bailing, you will sink right along with them.

And don't they know it. It's disgusting to me, personally.

But our government unfortunately had no choice other than to step in and bail out the stupid and greedy bastards whose abuse and manipulation of the so-called free market caused this crisis.

Anyone can say don't use my tax dollars to rescue the unworthy. On a small scale that's okay. But it takes income to pay taxes, and in the constricted, no credit economy of a depression, it is income - or more accurately the lack thereof - and not taxes, that is the problem.

I hate that the government had to step in and ease the credit crunch caused by this mountain of illiquid, sub-prime mortgage debt, but don't kid yourself, in spite of what the Pollyannas and knee-jerk libertarians may say, it did have to do this.

quote:

Originally posted by surestrike:
And the two guys who are seeing nothing but sunshine are the ones who'd like to sell you that lime green 88 Pinto.

I think Ford stopped production of the Pinto in 1980. If so an 88 Pinto might be worth quite a bit.

quote:

some of your Business Practices could use some polish

I appreciate the support but not the jab. I am an equal opportunity straight shooter, so I must state for the record that you and I have had no business dealings, so you have no first hand knowledge of my business practices.

You did question a posting I made about a discounted buffalo hunt. I provided all the info I had regarding that hunt, including the name of the outfitter, the day rates, and the buffalo trophy fee. You then chose to contact the outfitter directly, depriving me of a commission on a booking (if you did indeed book). So I think you ought to check your eye for a log before you start commenting about the speck in mine.

quote:

But our government unfortunately had no choice other than to step in and bail out the stupid and greedy bastards whose abuse and manipulation of the so-called free market caused this crisis.

We will never know what would have happened had the gov't not stepped in with AIG and (possibly) on a broader scale. I think there is a pretty good chance that investors, ranging from private individuals to global corporations could/can mop up the mess. The govt is going to sell it all back to us anyway. However, they will not be very efficient or effective in doing so. It will be a sloppy and expensive process. And how will they decide who gets to come aboard the lifeboat? Remember, a lot of this crappy paper is owned by foreign entities. Are we going to bail out the Japanese pension funds? The oil sheiks that own our paper? The cocaine-snorting gamblers on Wall St?

I think there is a pretty good chance that the markets would have managed this just fine. There are tons of people waiting on the sidelines to buy distressed assets, ranging from the little guy buying a foreclosed house in his neighborhood, to global corporations buying up entire companies. In the process, wealth will end up in the hands of people qualified to manage it.

And I think that there will be "unintended consequences" of govt intervention. The creditworthiness of the US govt will be tainted, for one thing. They are borrowing massive amounts on top of huge existing debts, with no idea how they will repay, just like the deadbeats. Are foreigners going to stop buying US Treasuries? Watch out when that happens. Inflation will likely worsen. Banks will be even stricter in future lending, if the govt prevents them from foreclosing on deadbeats as the Dems are demanding. And our economy will be stifled by govt deficits crowding out private capital.

The truth here is that the politicians, advised by people with cronies on Wall St., want to pander to the press and to popular opinion, especially at this time of elections when their jobs are up for grabs. So they have decided on appeasement. The Dems are piling on...as their price for rubber stamping the administration's plan, they want the govt to stop foreclosures on the irresponsible lot that got us into this mess in the first place. This way, the Wall Streeters keep their jobs and their multi-million $ bonuses, the pols look like heroes and get voted back into office, the deadbeats will get off the hook (at least for a while), and the silent majority gets the bill when it's all over. Remember who pays the taxes in this country. It's the top quintile that pays almost all of it. These are the folks who are going to get the bill.

I say, let govt stay out of it. We don't need them to buy the assets at artificially high prices and then sell them back to the rightful owners. Smart folks can buy this stuff for themselves without any govt bureacracy in the middle (and without any attached pork).

As for credit seizing up, I don't see it. I get inundated with credit offers by mail and on the phone on a daily basis. TV and radio are still running mortgage ads. I am sure that GE has no problem borrowing pretty much as much money as they need. Credit is a two way street. People and entities with excess cash have to lend it or invest it. The guys who can't get it are the guys that don't deserve it. That's how credit markets work, and they are working as they should.

Now back to the thread: I hear that Chifuti (controls most of the lower Zambezi Valley) is going to charge $1300 per day for buff hunts next year in Zim. Does that sound like they are hurting for business? Remember, there is global demand for safaris, and demand is growing while supply (at least for DG hunts) is not. If a few American contractors, realtors, mortgage brokers, and Wall St. types lose their jobs and have to forego their safaris, I don't think that will hurt the industry much. Look at Zim this year...despite the political trauma in that country, the season was very successful. Next year, if things settle down, my prediction is that demand will be strong.

So don't hold your breath on the Pinto...my advice is to book your hunt now, before rates go up. Esp. for Zim.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

quote:

some of your Business Practices could use some polish

I appreciate the support but not the jab. I am an equal opportunity straight shooter, so I must state for the record that you and I have had no business dealings, so you have no first hand knowledge of my business practices.

You did question a posting I made about a discounted buffalo hunt. I provided all the info I had regarding that hunt, including the name of the outfitter, the day rates, and the buffalo trophy fee. You then chose to contact the outfitter directly, depriving me of a commission on a booking (if you did indeed book). So I think you ought to check your eye for a log before you start commenting about the speck in mine.

I take it back, you need a full semester of "Marketing 101" Your responses to my questions tell all I want to know about your business practices.

You did not give full disclosure as our host has asked. I asked about "normal license fees" and was refering to "trophy fees" of "other species, cheap enough". Never did get an answere.

I have known Con for many years and exchange emails with him frequently. If this bothers you, see first paragraph.

As far a booking with him to "deprive me of a commission" would never happen. Not ethical. Period. What do you think?

So to quote you, "two words"

quote:

I take it back, you need a full semester of "Marketing 101" Your responses to my questions tell all I want to know about your business practices.

You did not give full disclosure as our host has asked. I asked about "normal license fees" and was refering to "trophy fees" of "other species, cheap enough". Never did get an answere.

I have known Con for many years and exchange emails with him frequently. If this bothers you, see first paragraph.

As far a booking with him to "deprive me of a commission" would never happen. Not ethical. Period. What do you think?

So to quote you, "two words"

Yeah that ^^^^

Add another one to the "Never do business with that jerk" list!!!!

What a shame and very embarrassing.

Licence fees are pretty standard in Tanzania, and I assumed anyone interested in hunting Tanzania would know what they were. So rather than publish a laundry list I just referenced the standard tariff. The only one of any significance on a buff hunt is the buff, and I published that in response to your question.

You also asked about charters to which I responded that no charter was required. This was clearly stated in the original posting.

Frankly I interpreted your question as a schoolmarm admonition for not following the "Rules" to the letter, rather than a genuine expression of interest in the hunt. Since you could not go the the trouble of sending me a PM or an email, stating (with your adolescent sunglass dude icon that I interpreted to mean you were investigating the veracity of my ad)that you would contact the outfitter directly, and according to the post above you never did book the hunt, it appears that I was right. Or did the $400 impala scare you off? Maybe it was the $100 ammo licence fee that Tanzania charges, some of the time?

If you don't like my style, that's life. You too Pauly. I am who I am, I don't put on any salesman facade. Feel free to go with more sycophantic types if you like to have your balls licked before you part with any of your cash. I like to do business with guys who know what they want and are genuinely interested in what I have to offer, whose finances are in place, and whose first concern is not "what's the catch".

He was already I won't be phoning that guy when I book a Buff, he is now the founder member on my "when hell freezes over" list of people to book a hunt with.

Not only do you not have a fekkin clue what you are talking about in the economy and the consequences for hunting, but your are boorish in the extreme.

Still...all publicity is good publicity!