Back on the economy:

The real problem is that the "nonperforming" mortgages, ie. those that have a high risk of default, must be subtracted from the Bank's reserves leaving them in the position of not having sufficient reserves to support loans to ANYONE. The result; no transactions that are not cash transactions. No business loans, lines of credit, credit cards, etc.
The risk of a melt down is real. The real issue is not making those who created the problem pay the price, it's making sure that the entire economy doesn't collapse.

quote:

Not only do you not have a fekkin clue what you are talking about in the economy and the consequences for hunting, but your are boorish in the extreme.

So, gentleman Jim, what are your qualifications in economic theory?

Terry, good point. However, according to Sunday's paper, only 3% of commercial banks are in any kind of serious trouble. The guys who absorbed most of the bad paper (mortgages are not "toxic", the worst thing that happens is you get to own the underlying house so you will recover at least 50% of your money; the really toxic stuff is the leveraged derivative paper, that can be worth nothing very easily)are Fannie and Freddie, some investment banks, and hedge funds.

I think the bigger risk is that the rest of the world, rather than US Banks, will stop lending us money, if we continue to conduct ourselves like drunken sailors. We have become a huge debtor nation and we are not behaving as if we intend to repay the debt. Remember Brazil?

what UKHunter said.

quote:

Originally posted by TerryR:
Back on the economy:

The real problem is that the "nonperforming" mortgages, ie. those that have a high risk of default, must be subtracted from the Bank's reserves leaving them in the position of not having sufficient reserves to support loans to ANYONE. The result; no transactions that are not cash transactions. No business loans, lines of credit, credit cards, etc.
The risk of a melt down is real. The real issue is not making those who created the problem pay the price, it's making sure that the entire economy doesn't collapse.

But if the mortgages were bundled, securitized, and sold off in strips to investors, what are these banks holding?

I am sure the institutions and investors who bought the riskiest (and highest-paying) strips stand to lose quite a bit.

NB -- say what you want about Russ Gould, he is almost never boring.

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
Eric,

Don't look for any discounts particularly in government owned safari areas. The governments in the countries offering safaris don't care what the economic situation is in the US. They are charging the safari companies X$$ to operate on the concession and a trophy fee for each animal. Then the safari company has to charge enough to cover expenses and make a small profit on top of the government expenses. This allows the safari company very little wiggle room.

Mark

When I see guys like Jeff Rann buying $20 Million dollar Texas ranches and Doug Scandrol hunting $50,000 plus High Altai Argalis, I find it hard to believe that some safari companies are just "covering expenses" and making a small profit. I would bet that there are quite a few safari companies that have 6 or 7 figures worth of "Wiggle Room"

Silwane,

I think many people would be very surprised at how little of a high profile PH's own money goes into some of their acquisitions. Comped hunts and hunt trades are common practice also. Of course some PH's that are owners of a company make a descent living but I think you'll find very few are wealthy.

Mark

You never know,if the current economic situation continues,safari companies may offer a buy one get one free package or a three for the price of one special.Lately,for 600 dollars, I can spend one week in Cuba,aifare,food,lodging included(3or4 stars).

quote:

Feel free to go with more sycophantic types if you like to have your balls licked before you part with any of your cash. I like to do business with guys who know what they want and are genuinely interested in what I have to offer, whose finances are in place, and whose first concern is not "what's the catch".

Russ, I must say, I for one enjoy your style...! I nearly spilled my coffee on my lap when I read this!

I dont think there will be more discounted hunts.I think that a lot of the smaller operaters might close down but the big operators with good areas will survive.There is always people with money and good areas will always get sold

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:

quote:

Not only do you not have a fekkin clue what you are talking about in the economy and the consequences for hunting, but your are boorish in the extreme.

So, gentleman Jim, what are your qualifications in economic theory?

Well here is the thing: I am an ex-professional economist for a large international bank, these days the M.D of a trading division of the same bank.

So overall I think my qualifications in economic theory stack up.

Yours?

quote:

Well here is the thing: I am an ex-professional economist for a large international bank, these days the M.D of a trading division of the same bank.

So overall I think my qualifications in economic theory stack up.

Yours?

In the light of recent events in the markets I'm not sure that's something you should tell anyone.

Hey, I'm sorry and hope you're not offended..... it was just my Brit sense of humour getting the better of me!

Steve, you beat me to it.

Right now I would not trust any banker

Saeed,

you're preaching to the converted on that subject! - You know how I feel about bankers and banks!

quote:

I think the bigger risk is that the rest of the world, rather than US Banks, will stop lending us money, if we continue to conduct ourselves like drunken sailors. We have become a huge debtor nation and we are not behaving as if we intend to repay the debt.

How true! We depend too heavily on credit. I heard that 95% of Chinese transactions (purchases) are cash (not credit cards, HELOCs etc) They don't trust banks. How unsophisticated!
Peter.

I would believe Russ before I would believe a banker.

Banks will lend you an umbrella as long as the sun is shining but they want it back when it starts raining.

quote:

Well here is the thing: I am an ex-professional economist for a large international bank

UKHunter did say EX, obivously had he still been in charge we wouldn't be in this mess.

Never trust a banker.....I'm one and I don't trust them!

Anyway....I don't come here to talk about work....I come here as a break from that and to think of Africa.


My Kudu and my son's Duiker (mounts) arrive tomorrow....that should take my mind off work -when my wife says "where the hell are we going to put that!?"

Hey there's an easy answer to that question. You just say we're not gonna put it anywhere......... I'm gonna put it anywhere I like............. then DUCK!!!!!!!!!

Look on the bright side...... the worst that can happen is the world will be one banker less.

quote:

So overall I think my qualifications in economic theory stack up.

Yours?

Well let's start with the fact that I studied economics under a couple of legendary economists at MIT, where I earned my Masters Degree in Management. Then I worked as a management consultant for McKinsey & Co out of New York, arguably the pre-eminent consulting firm in the world. My first client was Merrill Lynch, so I know a little about Wall St. In my opinion Merrill deserved to go under a lot sooner than they did. They were the "thundering herd" all right...and about as organized. The internet trading firms really killed them, this mortgage thing was just the last nail. A lot of my colleagues at MIT Sloan went into investment banking, mostly the ones who had no values other than money, money and more money. After McKinsey, I founded a steel company. Then I was a member of Jack Welch's personal staff where I did mainly acquisition work, before working in one of GE's European operations for a few years. Finally, I was the president of an aerospace company here in the USA, before retiring early to do what I enjoy and spend more time with family. In summary, I worked on Wall St as well as Main St so I think I have a pretty good understanding of how things work on both sides of the economy.

And while I hate to quote myself, I would like to repeat, for UK Hunter's benefit, my prediction above:

"And I think that there will be "unintended consequences" of govt intervention. The creditworthiness of the US govt will be tainted, for one thing. They are borrowing massive amounts on top of huge existing debts, with no idea how they will repay, just like the deadbeats. Are foreigners going to stop buying US Treasuries? Watch out when that happens. Inflation will likely worsen. Banks will be even stricter in future lending, if the govt prevents them from foreclosing on deadbeats as the Dems are demanding. And our economy will be stifled by govt deficits crowding out private capital."

Already, the rest of the world is shunning the dollar. So, Mr. Economist, which side of that equation did you bet on as a trader? For or against the dollar?

The declining dollar won't help prices of hunts, not one bit. And the stock market is starting to realize that having the Feds come in to clean up is not necessarily manna from heaven. This bailout is a huge scam. The money "invested" in purchasing lousy paper is going to cost each tax-payer (and I exclude the 80% who don't really pay tax) about $20k. Unless the Fed can persuade foreigners to lend them more money to buy this stuff (our debt is close to $11 trillion, almost as much as our GNP...if we were a company, our bonds would be junk), and then they sell it for as much as they paid or more, we taxpayers are going to get the bill one way or another. Remember, these foreigners are the same people who bought up a lot of the securitized mortgages as well as gov't debt, and who, under one version of the govt's plan, will not be entitled to tender them back to the gov't because they are FOREIGN!! Then there are the expenses involved in sorting through the mess and unloading the bad debt (to whom, I wonder, and at what price, if nobody wants to buy it now as the Fed claims). And finally the "unintended consequences" many of which have not manifested yet, will add to the final bill big time. Perhaps as much as another trillion. For example, if the Dems get legislation through allowing deadbeats to keep their homes, via bankruptcy court "cramdown" or some other means, then nobody is going to lend anyone money for a house, not US banks, and certainly not foreigners. That will do wonders for the economy. Frankly, if I were a foreigner, I would wonder what the politicians are going to do next to rewrite the rules of commercial lending. They all loaned us money thinking they had certain legal rights to recover it if things went sour. Now the rules are being rewritten. Bad, very bad.

One final thought for UK hunter and his buddy from that same country: small-minded people who go through life putting people on "lists" deserve to live in miserable small, wet, over-regulated countries like the UK.

Goes to show you there are some things even the greatest schools in the world cannot teach you. I guess thats life.

Russ....you are clearly more clever then what I am.

Wishing you a good day from all of us small minded people from the miserable (sometimes) small (hardly our fault!) wet (sometimes, but dry compared to Sydney) and over regulated (compared to?) country

Russ, I'm going to have to go ahead and respectfully disagree with you.

Russ is abrasive, but he has his economics straight. I don't have his degrees, but I am a CPA practicing for over 20 years preparing a solid 700 tax returns a year. This bail out will make things worse distorting the system for years to come. Let the housing market clean itself out. During the boom I was preparing a couple of CPA letters a week for clients borrowing "stated income"(aka stated lies) loans. All the letters had to say was that the person was self employed. They could have been selling junk at a flea market once a month and qualified. My richest clients were the loan brokers processing these loans. I saw several (one an ex-bartender) who made over $ 1,000,000 a year for several years. The banks would recognize their income upfront with a few points and then quickly sell the loan to another institution. I knew some clients who refinanced three times in one year taking more money out each time. One loan broker refinanced his own house every other month and used the lender rebates to pay his mortgage. He did that for a year and a half. Our government encouraged lower standards to help the lower classes get the American Dream and our financial institutions merrily went along on the joyride. Easy money chasing real estate fed the overvaluation leading to this mess. NOW the government wants to reward stupidity and greed with our tax dollars. NO. Let these idiots fail. Election year politicians are letting themselves be cowed by Wall Street's gyrations. How is this bail out going to reduce the inventory of unsold homes. Do you know how much slower it is for a short sale or foreclosure to process? It's like pulling teeth to get the banks to respond. And now you want to add some government agency into the process? What an idiotic farce.

Sorry for my rant, but I feel better now.

See there! I told you we all live on a different planet!

I don't recall the last time I saw all enclusive $8000. 1x1 buffalo hunts in Zim being offered and that includes the buffalo! at least not in the last 5 or 6 years, maybe longer!!! take a look at the Guides and Outfitters offerings on our very own AR! I have had many Zim outfitters calling me and asking if I could sell their buffalo at these reduced prices, about two or three a week.

I wouldn't want to be a young man trying to break into the booking or safari business today.

The flag is flying pretty high on AR today....

As to Tanzania, I think more $8500 2x1 10 day hunts are selling this year than before, but these hunts have always been offered and you have to pay trophy fees on the bulls and its an excellent deal for those that can't afford a regular safari..The problem this year was the Tanz. Gov. went nuts and jammed it to us, then they realized the error of their ways and backed off considerably but it was too little, too late I think.. What we ended up with was a typical price increase that has been happening every year, and it has to be expected inasmuch as everything else went up such as fuel etc, but some folks are still pouting and not going, and that too will come to pass, those clients lost will doubtfully have any effect on Tanzania, thats just the way of the world.

My take is the business is off about 25% compared to the last 10 years, and may get worse and if it does then I assure you prices will go down in Africa, and prices willl increase in the USA as hunters will be staying home and hunting locally..I have already noticed a jump in local hunts booked..

For anyone to think that the hunting industry is immune from the economy is simply ridiculas or pure BS...Average folks hunt with that rat hole money and when fuel is what it is and the stock market drops and bail outs take place, and the realestate goes to hell, everyone in this country is going to feel the crunch, end of story..

There are people out there that are immune to the economy and they will continue to hunt and hopefully that will keep some of us afloat.

Just my opinnion, and thats the way I see it today, right or wrong, but this ain't my first rodeo I assure you...

In the meantime I am not going to worry about it, I'm going to rope with my grandkids and have some fun since I probably won't be working nearly as hard as usual and at 73, I have earned a break anyway...and it WILL turn around, it always does, but damn I hope a bunch of thoes crooked bastards that put us in this bucket go to jail or commit suicide...

Good post.

quote:

Originally posted by BigBoreCore:
Russ is abrasive, but he has his economics straight. I don't have his degrees, but I am a CPA practicing for over 20 years preparing a solid 700 tax returns a year. This bail out will make things worse distorting the system for years to come. Let the housing market clean itself out. During the boom I was preparing a couple of CPA letters a week for clients borrowing "stated income"(aka stated lies) loans. All the letters had to say was that the person was self employed. They could have been selling junk at a flea market once a month and qualified. My richest clients were the loan brokers processing these loans. I saw several (one an ex-bartender) who made over $ 1,000,000 a year for several years. The banks would recognize their income upfront with a few points and then quickly sell the loan to another institution. I knew some clients who refinanced three times in one year taking more money out each time. One loan broker refinanced his own house every other month and used the lender rebates to pay his mortgage. He did that for a year and a half. Our government encouraged lower standards to help the lower classes get the American Dream and our financial institutions merrily went along on the joyride. Easy money chasing real estate fed the overvaluation leading to this mess. NOW the government wants to reward stupidity and greed with our tax dollars. NO. Let these idiots fail. Election year politicians are letting themselves be cowed by Wall Street's gyrations. How is this bail out going to reduce the inventory of unsold homes. Do you know how much slower it is for a short sale or foreclosure to process? It's like pulling teeth to get the banks to respond. And now you want to add some government agency into the process? What an idiotic farce.

Sorry for my rant, but I feel better now.

quote:

Originally posted by Atkinson:

I don't recall the last time I saw all enclusive $8000. 1x1 buffalo hunts in Zim being offered and that includes the buffalo! at least not in the last 5 or 6 years, maybe longer!!! take a look at the Guides and Outfitters offerings on our very own AR! I have had many Zim outfitters calling me and asking if I could sell their buffalo at these reduced prices, about two or three a week.

Just for the record, I went on an all inclusive 1x1 buff hunt (including charter flight from Vic Falls to Binga) in Zim with Russ Broom about three years ago for less than $8K. Not trying to start a pissing contest, Ray. Just stating my experience. Not sure what they're going for now.

If you guys think $8000 "all in" for buff is the biggest discount being offered around in Zim this year, you are outta your minds. I think a lot of buffalo are gonna be unsold this year at $8000 simply because it may not be worth the US booking agents time to make 10% of $6000. Moral.....book direct this year and next but only with a PH of solid reputation.

Steve,
In the past some outfits that didn't sell out did put out some deals because the either undersold or overbought on buffalo and at that point you must sell them for whatever or shoot them yourself and clean up your quota..That is a totally different deal than I am talking about.

Tendrums,
If any PH out there has some $6000 buffalo then contact me I will sure as hell sell them and take my 10%.

Think about what your saying and keep in mind that 10% of $6000 is better than 10% of nothing..

I and most legetamate booking agents sell a lot of hunts world wide and particulary in Canada and the USA for lot less than that...I even sell day hunts at $125 per day for hogs, and it almost pays the telephone bill, but I am in business to make money, and a little here and there helps me pay the bills.

I think 3 things are certain from reading this "Bar fight" thread.

1. The safari companys and their fish mongers will make every effort to keep prices high and may start looking to other hunters. The US replaced England as the major pool of hunters for africa after wwII so I suspect we can and maybe will be replaced down the road.

2. The US invests more in african overpopulation then in hunting and conservation and that fact is clear on the ground. So we are looking at a hopefully slow decline in African hunting at best.

3. The US markets and government is an accurate reflection of our citizens. I would guess that 50% +1 of americans spend more than they have, are desparate to get rich quick and bitch extensively about the next guy or gal. Just look at the credit debt we carry, the lines for lottery tickets and the fact that, of all nations, we demand access to legions of lawyers to exercise our constitutional right to sue over every damn thing that no other country's citizens would even think of suing about.

I guess it could be worse, but I have a vivid imagination.

quote:

Originally posted by mrlexma:
Russ, I'm going to have to go ahead and respectfully disagree with you.

You invariably do.

quote:

Originally posted by Atkinson:

Think about what your saying and keep in mind that 10% of $6000 is better than 10% of nothing..

I have thought about it and, for a number of reasons, I think few agents will market that $6000 buff hunt as such. To draw a comparison, the next time you think a booking agent will work to sell a $6000 cape buff hunt, try putting a sub $10,000 piece of real estate on the market with a realtor and watch how hard they work for you. It's all about the marginal return relative to the costs. 10% of something is better than nothing UNLESS you are expending marginal costs to sell that low dollar item when they could just as well be expended marketing high dollar Yukon Sheep or Mongolia Ibex. My opinion is that most agents will either market those hunts described above at $8000+ (leaving the majority unsold) or simply change their focus to another country or continent if they have the contacts. In short, prices in Zim (and elsewhere) have probably adjusted on the ground but hunters in the US won't know it unless they book direct.

tendrams

Russ:

McKinsey! Got a few stories about McKinsey consultants...

I am trying to stay abreast of developments while trying to work etc. but it doesn't help when every politician, talking head and news outlet twists fact and conjecture to their own advantage

e.g.

-Harry Reid just told John McCain to stay away from Washington

-Chris Matthews (MSNBC) keeps floundering around saying the sky is falling

- Barry Obama (as he was known when we were at college together) says it is Wall Street greed when it was his party on the Banking Committee that voted down on party lines tightening lending practices, opting instead to make "easy money" loans for mansions for postmen.

Seriously, to our non American readers, my acquaintance in the mortgage business use to tell me he had postmen buying 1 million dollar homes because they "qualified"- hoping to refinance their interest only 3% for the first year ARM loans when "prices went up" as they "always do".

This is the mess we have made for ourselves, and they will be hell to pay.

Meanwhile, there are great deals on hunts right now....I saw some nice one's on Russ Gould's site...

quote:

Originally posted by UKhunter:
Russ....you are clearly more clever then what I am.

small (hardly our fault!)

Once upon a time, the sun never set on the British Empire. Hell, once upon a time we were English citizens. But y'all screwed it up.

JPK

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:

quote:

Well here is the thing: I am an ex-professional economist for a large international bank, these days the M.D of a trading division of the same bank.

So overall I think my qualifications in economic theory stack up.

Yours?

In the light of recent events in the markets I'm not sure that's something you should tell anyone.

Hey, I'm sorry and hope you're not offended..... it was just my Brit sense of humour getting the better of me!

Shakiri,

ROFLMAO, again!