with the worries about this new virus here and if it is indeed that serious i wonder what will happen in zim

Latest estimates are that there are over one million Chinese in sub-Saharan Africa.

As long as they have not been to Wohan recently I don't think it will be an issue.

No flights are going to China at the moment so I think Africa is safer than we are.

Ethiopian Airlines is still flying back and forth regularly.

Ethiopian Airlines Denies Suspending Flights to China

To put it in context - the WHOLE continet of Africa has not had a single confirm case or the virus- are you seriously worried??

By the way I am travelling to the USA for the conventions -The USA has had confirmed cases - am I worried ?No not in the slightest!!

Folk,

Let us please not loose our minds as some did over ebola. People cancelled safaris that would have been conducted thousands of miles from where the disease was reported. Like Buzz said there are no reported cases in Africa anywhere. Sadie and I will be on the ground in 4 African countries this coming season and coronavirus will not be on my mind anywhere.

Mark

The Flu has already tipped over 10,000 in the US alone this season.

I’ve had some Australian clients limited in their travel to China for business. On the whole though, I wouldn’t pull the pin on something in Africa due to the goings on. Seems premature to me.

quote:

Originally posted by Dead Eye:

Reminds me of an incident in college.

This coronavirus has some characteristics, that when combined, we have not dealt with in our lifetime:

1. It is early and this is incomplete information, but the RO seems to be between 2.5-3.8, with some estimates over 5.

2. A person can have the virus with no symptoms and be contagious for over ten days, infecting people during this time when they think they are healthy.

3. This one is not proven but worthy to contemplate. The only Level 4 virology lab in China is in Wuhan. There are real concerns by many in Wuhan and some medical professionals in the first world, that this is an escaped weaponized virus.

4. The virus has escaped confinement. Evidently 5 million people left the province that Wuhan is in, for the Chinese New Years. These people spread throughout the world. The key is how many of them have the virus.

5. Yesterday the official word was that 10,000 people had the virus. Some people in China are estimating this number is closer to 500,000 already. Doctors that tried to raise the alarm in mid to late December were shut up by the CCP. There are people dying on the streets. Until last week, virtually everyone that died from the virus, had death certificates listing pneumonia instead of the virus. Look at social media coming out of China and get it translated. Things on the ground are not what is being mentioned by the official media coming out of China.

6. There is no antivirus at the moment.

Third world countries are not equipped to deal with this virus. It has been mentioned that there are no confirmed cases in Africa. How many Chinese are in Africa. Think of this. How many hospitals are there in Africa outside of a few private ones in RSA that can even diagnose this at this moment. If the virus gets to Africa or is in Africa, can Africa handle it.

There are people on this thread who's livelihoods depend on hunting. I wish them all the best. There have been contagions in the past like Ebola, MERS, SARS, Swine Flu, H1N1, etc. Which one of these had the combined characteristics listed above.

Last Monday I readjusted financial accounts. I called an agent and insured a Mozambique hunt in May. I have never done either of these things before due to a contagion. Am I overreacting. Perhaps. I certainly hope so. But, this coronovirus has the potential to be the Spanish Flu of our lifetimes. I pray that it is not, but nothing else in my lifetime looks like this.

This is worthy of keeping your eyes on. The characteristics seem different this time.

The virus was made in China so it won't last long.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:
The virus was made in China so it won't last long.

One of our trackers was telling us a girl from his village got a scholarship to study in China.

She went there and got herself pregnant.

Came back to the village.

After the child was born, it only lasted a couple of months, and died.

The rest of the village were not surprised, they said "what do expect anything made in China?"

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:
The virus was made in China so it won't last long.

Actually is was patented in England by THE PIRBRIGHT INSTITUTE in 2018.

https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

If the reporting is anywhere close to accurate, the mortality rate is relatively low -- about 300 deaths and 14,000 infections, or just over 2 percent.
What I have not seen yet is a profile of those who die from the coronavirus. Recall that the Spanish flu of 1918 killed mostly young people in their primes.
https://www.reuters.com/articl...-14000-idUSKBN1ZW00F

Here is CDC guidance:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Alisa, people dying in the streets?
When my father died of complications from H1N1, his death certificate also listed pneumonia as the cause -- pneumonia brought on by the influenze virus. This is common medical practice.

I really do not see this freeing up any land for wildlife. We need to stop acting like a tree full of hysterical baboons.

They just reported bird flu back there too!

https://africatimes.com/2020/0...ects-2019-ncov-case/



WHO identifies 13 top-risk African nations; Botswana suspects 2019-nCoV case

By AT editor - 31 January 2020 at 6:08 pm
WHO identifies 13 top-risk African nations; Botswana suspects 2019-nCoV case

Botswana on Friday became the latest African nation to announced a suspected – but not confirmed – case of 2019-nCoV, the new coronavirus affecting China and some 20 countries around the world.

Malaki Tshipayagae, the director for Botswana’s health service, said the possible patient was aboard an Ethiopian Airlines flight from China and was identified at Sir Seretse Khama International Airport, where the individual was taken for isolation.



Botswanan authorities, working with the Africa CDC, World Health Organization and other partners, continue to investigate this case, and coordinate the monitoring and response to the outbreak.

WHO said Friday it had identified 13 priority African countries: Algeria, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

These nations have direct links or a high volume of travel to China. “Active screening at airports has been established in a majority of these countries and while they will be WHO first areas of focus, the organization will support all countries in the region in their preparation efforts,” the organization said in a statement.



There are only two referral labs for testing on the continent, so that also is a WHO priority.

“It is critical that countries step up their readiness and in particular put in place effective screening mechanisms at airports and other major points of entry to ensure that the first cases are detected quickly,” said Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa. “The quicker countries can detect cases, the faster they will be able to contain an outbreak and ensure the novel coronavirus does not overwhelm health systems.”


As yet, there are no confirmed cases of the potentially fatal virus on the African continent. Ethiopian Minister of Health Lia Tadesse said four possible cases there have tested negative for 2019-nCoV, as has been the case elsewhere. Angolan health minister Sílvia Lutucuta reports a new suspected case there, while Sudanese authorities previously said they were investigating two possible coronavirus infections.



China’s latest update on the coronavirus epidemic, issued at midnight Thursday, listed 213 fatalities with a new total of 9,692 confirmed cases. There were 15,238 suspected cases along with 113,579 close contacts under health monitoring, according to the National Health Commission.

WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on Thursday. The PHEIC is a designation for an “extraordinary event” with the potential for international disease spread, one that requires immediate international action and a coordinated response to reduce the global public health risk.

quote:

Originally posted by Bill/Oregon:
If the reporting is anywhere close to accurate, the mortality rate is relatively low -- about 300 deaths and 14,000 infections, or just over 2 percent.
What I have not seen yet is a profile of those who die from the coronavirus. Recall that the Spanish flu of 1918 killed mostly young people in their primes.
https://www.reuters.com/articl...-14000-idUSKBN1ZW00F

Here is CDC guidance:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

Alisa, people dying in the streets?
When my father died of complications from H1N1, his death certificate also listed pneumonia as the cause -- pneumonia brought on by the influenze virus. This is common medical practice.

If it's only young people in their prime, I'm safe!

quote:

Originally posted by Bill/Oregon:
Alisa, people dying in the streets?
When my father died of complications from H1N1, his death certificate also listed pneumonia as the cause -- pneumonia brought on by the influenze virus. This is common medical practice.

Information regarding the virus is very fluid at the moment. Information coming from the medical community can change 180 degrees in the course of a day.

My comment regarding point 5 in my post of, "people dying on the streets", was a poor choice of words on my part. Sorry. In using that expression, I mean that people are not all, dying in the hospitals. People are dying in their homes and other places and taken directly to the crematoriums with no diagnosis of death, and probably no inclusion in any official numbers. Therefore the mortality rates and numbers of people with the virus are under reported.

Also regarding point 5 in my post, where I said that people are dying in the hospitals and have "pneumonia put on their death certificates". I agree with you that this happens a lot in medicine. The early days of HIV in the States would be another example. The reason I mentioned this is that even within the medical community in China, deaths have been under reported up until last week and may still not be reported correctly in towns and cities that are just now getting their first cases.

There doesn't seem to be any good mortality rate figures due to the fact that there is not good information on this coming out of China at the moment. We will learn better RO figures when we get a large enough sample set from first world countries. The mortality rate will continue to be a problem since medical care in first world countries is so much different than medical care in third world countries.

My post was not meant to be hyperbolic. I hope this helps to clarify my post.

CDC has the Novel Coronavirus listed as,

quote:

Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel

. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/n...el-coronavirus-china

It's up to you whether or not you believe there is any risk for travel within the U.S. to the SCI convention or not or for any travel abroad.

Based on past SCI shows, there will be some international hunters traveling to the show from China (if they can make it out or if they were already abroad) and traveling in from other countries.

Large gatherings of people are usually where common colds can be transmitted etc. if you are shaking hands and not washing hands or not following common protocols to reduce risk of transmission, then you might get sick or might not. But that is a risk everyone take each day, year etc.

The flu so far has been more harmful than the coronavirus .

This may be true for all viruses. But is not the coronavirus not a bunch of similar, viruses grouped together?

I bought a ticket to hk via Wuhan in May for $220.

If it is bad - flight gets cancelled or my trip insurance from Costco visa kicks in.

If everything is fine I go to hk for $220.

Worst case - If something work or family wise comes up I let the ticket go and lose $220.

My bigger issue is getting to papua in April. Think by mid may we will have a good handle on this - at least the cloud of uncertain outcomes will be narrowed.

Mike

Now flights either directly or via Beijing / Shanghai

Wuhan not showing any flights into May.

Flights to HK between $450-$550 from us which is very cheap.

This mess better get cleaned up soon - China matters too much to the global economy.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
Now flights either directly or via Beijing / Shanghai

Wuhan not showing any flights into May.

Flights to HK between $450-$550 from us which is very cheap.

This mess better get cleaned up soon - China matters too much to the global economy.

Mike

If their economy goes belly up our i phones will get cheaper

I do not belive anything the chinese officials say..they will lie/underreport about this disease as they do about everything else that may cause them to loose face. It would not surprise me if this virus is cooked up by a bio-weapon facility in Wuhan.

And look at their behaviour in Africa...worse than locust and arrogant as p****s..

I for one am not getting on any planes until they have figured this thing out.

I suspect most African countries won't figure out they have an outbreak until it's too late. There is a lot of traffic between china and africa. It's going to take a hold over there, probably already has, and they are not equipped to deal with it.

Pangolin May Be a Vector for Chinese Coronavirus


https://www.courthousenews.com...chinese-coronavirus/

quote:

Originally posted by J.R.Jackson:
Pangolin May Be a Vector for Chinese Coronavirus


https://www.courthousenews.com...chinese-coronavirus/

How do you say Karma in Chinese?

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by J.R.Jackson:
Pangolin May Be a Vector for Chinese Coronavirus


https://www.courthousenews.com...chinese-coronavirus/

How do you say Karma in Chinese?

业力
Yè lì

Now if they can just find a link between rhino horn and coronavirus, the poaching will nose dive. The pangolin tie in is absolutely hilarious and long overdue.

quote:

Originally posted by J.R.Jackson:

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by J.R.Jackson:
Pangolin May Be a Vector for Chinese Coronavirus


https://www.courthousenews.com...chinese-coronavirus/

How do you say Karma in Chinese?

业力
Yè lì

[/QUOTE]If their economy goes belly up our i phones will get cheaper [/QUOTE]

Foxconn has been told not to reopen their factories so there will not be any iPhones being produced until they fire production back up. If anything the price will increase due to availability.

Some say it is far worse in china than the chicom government is letting on. They tried to control it there but it got out of hand and then they finally decided they had better let the world know.

WSJ had a story today that close ties between China and Africa, coupled with weak screening systems in Africa have the alarm bells ringing.

Page A8

Good article from Gordon Chang regarding supply chain issues.

Also 80%+ of the ingredients for the worlds pharmaceuticals comes from China. It is probably a good idea to stock up on your prescriptions.

https://nationalinterest.org/b...conomic-chaos-126471


February 24, 2020 Topic: Economics Blog Brand: The Buzz Tags: ChinaEconomicsTechnologyCoronavirus
Coronavirus Is Killing China’s Factories (And Creating Economic Chaos)
"Walmart, which essentially forces suppliers to manufacture in China, told consumers to “save money, live better.” Yet how can they live better if store shelves are bare?"

by Gordon G. Chang Follow @GordonGChang on TwitterL
This looks like the end of China’s central role in global supply chains. A microbe in China—and the response of a totalitarian government—is killing it.


Americans are angry. “I was on the phone with leaders from several hospitals in New York, and they told me that they had contracts with Chinese companies where they were waiting on things like plastic gloves, masks, all of this stuff where they were on the ships on their way to the U.S., and the Chinese government said ‘no, no, no, no, turn around, we need this stuff,’ ” said Maria Bartiromo on her Fox Business Network show “Mornings with Maria,” on the 19th of this month. “How is anybody going to trust China in terms of keeping up their end of the bargain again in business?”

The influential television anchor is voicing a concern heard throughout America these days. Peter Navarro, who appeared on her Fox News Channel show on the 23rd, provided more reasons for cutting links with Chinese suppliers. “China put export restrictions on those masks and then nationalized an American factory that produces them there,” said President Donald Trump’s director of trade and manufacturing policy, referring to N95 masks, used for protection against the COVID-19 coronavirus.

The coronavirus has exposed a critical vulnerability. Americans at the moment are short of N95s. And that is not the only type of mask they need. Factories in China cannot open for, among other reasons, lack of industrial masks, so Beijing has taken steps to keep these Chinese-produced items in country. “Industrial safety masks have been banned from export from China,” Jonathan Bass, the owner of Los Angeles-based PTM Images, told me last week.

“China has shown us that they will ban the export of masks for the protection of their own people over the protection of all people,” Bass said. “This shows us that America is extremely vulnerable to China’s whim of cutting exports for health-and-safety-related products. What’s next? Pharmaceuticals to save lives? Rare earth metals? Shoes?”

Whatever the goods, the disruption in supply will last longer than most analysts think. Giant container ships are skipping Chinese ports or are leaving only 10 percent full. At the port of Long Beach, Bass tells me, container traffic is down about 40 percent. That’s the result of closed Chinese factories.

Chinese factories were scheduled to reopen February 9, 10 days after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Yet as Simina Mistreanu, who writes for Forbes on the Chinese manufacturing sector, notes, many plants remain closed.



She cites the situation around Chengdu, where authorities require factories to provide two masks daily for each worker. In order to start production, a plant must show it has a two-week inventory of masks. Masks are unavailable, so in one cluster outside the city only five of about 50 companies have gone back to work.

It appears the one general exception to the slow-start are state defense industries.

Even if factories could operate at full blast, logistics businesses are not. Warehouses are shut, making shipments extremely difficult. Moreover, as Bass points out, containers are now left sitting on the dock at the Tianjin and Ningbo ports for extended periods. Containers bound for the U.S. are being loaded as much as four weeks late.

Some believe shortages will become noticeable at American retailers in mid-April, but the big-box stores are especially vulnerable because they generally keep inventories to a minimum. So Walmart shelves, a friend tells me, might show empty spots next month.


And try to buy an iPhone this spring. On the 17th of this month, Apple announced it expected to miss its revenue forecast for the current quarter, in part due to shortages of that iconic product.

The Chinese slowdown is far more serious than many believe. Analysts, looking back to the SARS epidemic in 2002-03, are predicting a “V”—quick—recovery.

This time, the recovery could resemble an “L,” in part because the disruption is so much greater than it was back then. Even the best-run companies this time are being taken by surprise. Apple, given its dependence on the Chinese market, has its pulse on China, but the company issued its overoptimistic guidance on January 28, less than three weeks before the revenue-miss announcement on the 17th. That’s an indication of the fast erosion in China’s economy.

And this brings us back to America’s dependence on China for critical products. More important than phones, China’s troubles look like they will result in shortages of 150 prescription pharmaceuticals, some of which have “no alternatives.” Yet Beijing last week said it wanted to become an even more important part of the world’s healthcare supply chains. The epidemic, however, tells us we must move in the opposite direction. After all, why should anyone want to become even more vulnerable to an unreliable supplier?

Foreigners were strategically short-sighted in relying on an inherently unstable and belligerent regime in China for the supply of goods, yet any reliance can be problematic at times. “In crises like this, we have no allies,” Navarro told Bartiromo on Sunday. “Back in 2009 during the swine flu problem, our best friends in Australia, Great Britain, and Canada basically denied us what we needed. Australia refused to send 35 million doses of vaccine.”

As Navarro said, the administration is now working “Trump-time” to solve supply-chain issues. President Trump has been thinking about these matters for a long time. On July 21, 2017, he issued his Executive Order on Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply China Resiliency of the United States.

The Defense Industrial Base study, as it is known, helped pushed the administration in 2018 to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum pursuant to Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to preserve the U.S. industrial base. These much-criticized tariffs were a good move, first and foremost a national security measure.

So in a sense were the tariffs Trump imposed on China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. These tariffs, by creating uncertainty as to the future of U.S.-China trade ties, encouraged companies to move portions of their supply chain out of that troubled country.

Of course, companies were able to provide goods at low cost when they established factories in China, but now the world better appreciates the cost of low-cost goods. Moving toward self-sufficiency will make products more expensive, but at least they will be available.

Walmart, which essentially forces suppliers to manufacture in China, told consumers to “save money, live better.” Yet how can they live better if store shelves are bare?

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang.

I watched a guy in the Bakersfield California airport walk by with a full face respirator using two filter canisters. I wanted to ask him what the filter cartridges were rated for but skipped it.

I had 14 flights between Feb 3rd and Feb 17th but luckily they were all domestic. Unfortunately, I went through San Francisco airport 3 times.

SARS and MERS were both variants of coronavirus. Much of the work now on COV-19 are based on SARS and MERS.

The estimated probability of mortality based on 72,314 cases is 80+ years old 14.8%, 70-79 years old 8.0%, 60-69 years old 3.6% with those with preexisting conditions be on the high end. That is if we can trust the data.

The virus can survive for approximately 8 - 10 days on a hard surface. It is easily killed with disinfectants. It's viability decreases quickly at temperatures around 100F (Dallas should be safe during summer). Since I fall into the mid 60's group with high blood pressure and lungs scarred by pneumonia as a youth my best bet is hand washing and using disinfectant wipes.

As a supplier to a specific group of businesses we began looking for domestic alternatives to foreign products two weeks ago.
In so far as products we determined we were much more at risk in the logistical supply chain than the manufacturing point itself. You might be able to somewhat isolate a city or manufacturing location but logistics is fluid and dynamic. To many touch points to contain. Trucking, Shipping docks etc.
As far as the virus lasting 10 days on a surface. Any sea bound shipments will be safe to the USA. It takes more than 10 days to get here from China.
The ships crews do not need to disembark their vessels from China.
Soon the issue will be far spread.
That being said from what our "Media" presents. 80% of the cases are mild.
Is this simply a flu type illness?

EZ

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:
WSJ had a story today that close ties between China and Africa, coupled with weak screening systems in Africa have the alarm bells ringing.

Page A8

On the contrary...we just flew Johannesburg and Atlanta return and the only medical screening was upon our return in Johannesburg OR Tambo airport.