Tomorrow morning I'm coming out of retirement, putting on my M&A hat and calling Winchester for an purchase package. Remington's original acquisition team put $100mm in the company so I think it would probably take about $30mm to have a viable company. I will absorb the initial investigation cost & do a quick down & dirty business plan. If it looks viable I'll raise the capital & buy it. If any of you want to come along pease pm me, minimum investment will be about $1.0mm with the usual personal capital requirements. I assume this is a long shot and this is really just a plan to break the union but we will have a good idea in a few weeks.

Good idea but I think you would do better with an IPO on a holding company that then goes in for a bid on Winchester. That way some of us guys that are a few bucks short of a million can get in on the deal.

Private investment with fewer investors will allow the managment team to answer to the product, and not the SEC.

Getting out from underneath the pension/health care benefit burden will allow capital to flow into modernizing the manufacturing process, and most importantly develop an extremely robust QA function.

LD

All in all its probably not a good investment anyway. With the continued urbanization of America fewer and fewer people each year take up the shooting and hunting sports. Moreover, each year there is less and less land to hunt on because it is all being bought up, and hunts are getting more and more expensive all of the time.


The other problem is that guns last a long long time. they are not like a car that needs to be replaced every 4-5 years. Some people hunt with the same gun their entire lifetime.

22WRF,how true.

The business I am in is becoming more and more cooperative.Sad scene.For the past few years there ia half of me saying stay and the other saying bail out now.May be good for the near future but for the distant it does not look good.Poured everything in it for years and it may be all for nothing.At least it was a lesson learned.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a deal isn’t all ready in the making. Winchester is just like a lot of other American company’s right now trying to figure out how the leave the country and not alienate the customer. Don’t be shocked if in a few months their guns are available again under a new name Chinachester. Then just like other companies they could skip out on their employees and their pensions.

USRAC is not Winchester. Winchester is not going away. The Model 70 is not going away.

Winchester is owned by Olin Corp just as it has for many years. Olin licenses the Winchester name and various trademarks (including the "Model 70" tag) to USRAC. USRAC bought some of Olins' production facilities like the New Haven facility.

USRAC is owned by the same parent company as Browning, which also owns FN and other weapons companies.

Model 70's are made in the FN's South Carolina production facility. It's a bit early to say that USRAC is forever dropping production of the M70.

If they do, Winchester will probably (I haven't seen the licensing agreement) have the right to take back the Model 70 license and grant it (if they so chose) to another manufacturer or marketing group.

The problem as I see it is in the basic business model of USRAC (and Remington for that matter). These large gun companies want market share and volume. Their shareholders want earnings growth. That's fine in a growing market, but the gun market overall is not growing.

I'd like to see the Model 70 license in the hands of someone who's interested in turning out a quality product for 5-10% of the rifle-buying public. Kimber, Dakota and Galazan seem to be doing just fine. Somewhere in that mix is room for a new Winchester Model 70 licensee who understands that you can't produce the "Rifleman's Rifle" and sell it at Walmart prices.

First is was pre 64's. Maybe in two years it will be pre chinese. I wonder if the companies downfall was there lack of sales or there high labor costs and benefits or a combination of the two.
Forrest, Montana actions and barrels are not very high priced and they are avalaible in many different calibers and both chrome moly and stainless in right and left hand.

SO ForrestB,what you're saying is that guns and cooperations don't go together.Is that right?If so I agree.Gun's and screwing over people do not go together.Let that be a lesson to all.Now stop that now!

Tom ga hunter,count me in.

We could hire Ricciardelli!

It seems to me the way to go is similar to MRC, with a twist. How does a company know how many rifles to make ia a certain chambering.
I mean sure produce a 30,06 ,270 7mmMag 300 win .338 win, in standard and featherweight,
and an african version. But supergrades and odd ball chamberings should be special order
and the ability to buy actions and barreled actions. How much time and money is spent forcasting how many 6.5 swdeds and 7mmStws to build? and how do the wholesalers like it when they have odd ball rounds sitting on the shelvs for years. I would love to be able to special order a model 70 short action in .257 roberts. And a long action twin in ..35 whellen
! And if I could just get the barreld action that would be fine too !!!...tj3006

quote:

Originally posted by Thomas Jones:
It seems to me the way to go is similar to MRC, with a twist. How does a company know how many rifles to make ia a certain chambering.
I mean sure produce a 30,06 ,270 7mmMag 300 win .338 win, in standard and featherweight,
and an african version. But supergrades and odd ball chamberings should be special order
and the ability to buy actions and barreled actions. How much time and money is spent forcasting how many 6.5 swdeds and 7mmStws to build? and how do the wholesalers like it when they have odd ball rounds sitting on the shelvs for years. I would love to be able to special order a model 70 short action in .257 roberts. And a long action twin in ..35 whellen
! And if I could just get the barreld action that would be fine too !!!...tj3006

I agree with Thomas. Dell Computers doesn't build a computer until you place the order. Car manufacturers are headed in that direction.
Case in point, why did I just have to buy a Winchester Stainless Classic Featherweight WITH A WOOD STOCK when what I wanted was a Stainless Featherweight in a nice, lightweight (non-Tupperware) synthetic stock. Now I've got to invest several hundred more dollars to get what I really wanted in the first place. My dealer ought to be able to place an order direct to the factory and have my rifle in two weeks (cutting out the distributer). Have a few "showroom" models and used guns, but future of most of these should be "just-in-time" manufacturing.

The key is to down size product line, equipment and most of all employees. Offer only the best selling products. Sell unused equipment. Get rid of those lazy good for nothing benefit sucking people. Outsource everything! Get the kids who make nike shoes to manufacture the gun parts then assemble them here with work force of illegal aliens. Sure, at first quality will suck. But as those kids get older they will get better...maybe. Hey, who cares about the customer! Screw them too. When the company begins to fail, go to the local government and promise to build a factory "up north" that will employ thousands of locals in exchange for a bail out. Then don't build the factory but instead a sales office and staff it with your brother and sister with an inflated salary. By the time everyone figures it out the profits are in the bank and you are rich and happy.

signed Gary "dope smoker" Wilson

Redlander, you have a great point.

I don't have near the money for a buy in, but that might be the future of the gun industry. You will always have the low price guys who survive (for how long?) on volume, but take Winchester into a nice semi custom shop where they build what you want from a pre set list.

I already own 3 Winchesters, might buy another one, but don't have a million to invest in the Company.

quote:

Originally posted by ForrestB:
USRAC is not Winchester. Winchester is not going away. The Model 70 is not going away.

Winchester is owned by Olin Corp just as it has for many years. Olin licenses the Winchester name and various trademarks (including the "Model 70" tag) to USRAC. USRAC bought some of Olins' production facilities like the New Haven facility.

USRAC is owned by the same parent company as Browning, which also owns FN and other weapons companies.

Model 70's are made in the FN's South Carolina production facility. It's a bit early to say that USRAC is forever dropping production of the M70.

If they do, Winchester will probably (I haven't seen the licensing agreement) have the right to take back the Model 70 license and grant it (if they so chose) to another manufacturer or marketing group.

The problem as I see it is in the basic business model of USRAC (and Remington for that matter). These large gun companies want market share and volume. Their shareholders want earnings growth. That's fine in a growing market, but the gun market overall is not growing.

I'd like to see the Model 70 license in the hands of someone who's interested in turning out a quality product for 5-10% of the rifle-buying public. Kimber, Dakota and Galazan seem to be doing just fine. Somewhere in that mix is room for a new Winchester Model 70 licensee who understands that you can't produce the "Rifleman's Rifle" and sell it at Walmart prices.

While Olin Corporation owns the trademarks, I very much doubt they own the rights to the designs of USRAC firearms. I believe the Herstal Group has ultimate ownership of those. For certain Herstal owns the designs of firearms introduced after the USRAC spin off, such as the Supreme O/U and the Super X2 semi auto shotguns.

Am I wrong?

The sad truth is that the sales are down, the Union is making higher cost demands, benefits are costing more, and the bottom line isn't yielding the profits it should.

As much as we love Winchesters, and the whole history behind them, business still dictates the actions.

Ruger and Savage have taken a fair share of the market they once dominated. Remington is in the same boat! Our auto industry suffered the same discovery years ago. From the business aspect it makes good sense to shut down a facility that isn't doing well. Every other industry is suffering through the same issues. It's just a bitter truth.

A new buyer can come in, set up new contracts with suppliers and workers and be back to making the M70 within a short while. The trained personel are available, machines are in place, and the demand for the product is there. Starting fresh one could hire those he wants to have, turn out fewer options but of higher quality, and pay good wages & comp benefits, and have loyal peeps again. Look at Toyota right here in the USA. They didn't offer a huge line of cars and trucks. They offered a great value (performance for the $) with few options.

I believe there was a time when Unions were a good thing and served a very real purpose. But we as a society seem to have an "entitlement" mentality. No one owes anybody anything they don't earn! Union benefits, pensions, ect. are causing many backrupcies.

Until those who support welfare, food stamps, free education for illegal aliens, free health care, ect. are broke and paying more in taxes than they bring home, ( history repeats itself, remember the 70's) these morons will continue to bleed our country out. It's the political version of a very old torture.

I'll get off my soap box now. Nate

quote:

Am I wrong?

Unknown by me, I know FN and the Army were on the lossing side of the M4 issue with COlt.

IF the Model 70 recivers are being built in the FN plant I am not going to get too concerned for a while, until the dust settles. Like I said before this could be nothing more than FN shutting down a very old plant with high labor costs.

I do know one off the last Model 70's I seriously sat down and was looking at, had serious QA issues in my book. The left reciver rail had galling all the way down it, about .040 deep and the fix was blue it, I was not impressed. I did look at a featherweight after that which didn't have the problems, but it wasn't chambered in a 280 Rem, so I hunted down a old one and bought it.

I too suspect that this announcement is some sort of bargaining maneveur. The press release I read about the announcement stated that the USRAC license to the Winchester name runs out next year. Olin can then relicense. I suspect the timing of this announcement is tied to that fact.

USRAC's problems are similar to some of General Motors'- lesser quality products than they were historically known for, high labor costs and excessive pension & insurance obligations, stronger competition than in the past and a declining market. I wouldn't want any part of that New Haven facility and its problems.

Seriously,I would not invest in the gun business.Mostly because of the declining market and because I consider shooting more of a hobby.That's what makes it enjoyable to me.

I believe USRAC's suffering is of their own making. There is no doubt that USRAC has high overhead costs compared to some others, however it is too easy to blame past and present employees, and it would be wrong.
It has been some time since I've seen a model 70 that I wanted to purchase, and I don't even remember the last time I saw a Super Grade. Digging thru the gun room produced a Winchester catalog from 2002, the newest of the bunch. Now, if I feel this way, just how do you think other gun nuts feel?
Just to drive my point home I went to the local gun store yesterday and found only five Winchesters in the whole place, two of which were hunting calibres in the wssm family, the others were varminters. Of the hunting models, all were stained so dark, I didn't recognize them, plus they were finished with less than USRAC's best effort. With that said, if I haven't purchased a Winchester in many years, I'm more than sure others feel the same. Now if I don't buy them and USRAC can't sell them, I believe the outcome is obvious...

I am not defending Winchester, but heck, what rifle can you get for under 800 bucks that looks like a craftsman put it together? It simply is not going to happen in the USA in this day and age.

The last thing anyone wants is to aquire is the New Haven union. The state of CT paid for a new plant there and gave tax concesions but the union is the deal killer.

Some other deal killers are the current engineering and marketing types at USARC. They blew the WSM/WSSM design on the M70 by broaching the threads and now WSM chambers are out of round.

The Winchester name still has value but it's been tarnished by USARC. Also the Japan made goods have no appeal to me due to being made in Japan.

There is no common sense in aquiring USARC even if you got it free. It's the horse that carried "Winchester" to this situation. Another thing is that USARC has been bankrupt since 1994. So its auction time. You don't want the building in strong anti gun New Haven. You don't want the union. You don't want management. The machinery can be moved by riggers and we have good riggers here. You just want the name and Olin will rent that.

If they go offshore with the rest of the Winchester products then goodbye Winchester.

Somebody somewhere will make a M70 again. They would have to be quite special for me to bite again on a USARC product. Fool me once........

got up this morning & made a list, called my former partners @9:00, we had agreed on setting up a new fund & how to structure it by 9:10.. Made 6 calls 2 in Chattanooga & 4 in Atlanta and got committments to fund the purchase fund, called winchester about 10:00 and got the contact's name & number. He called back about 1:00 and we talked about 20 minutes.

Bottom line it is probably not a deal that a sane person would make. I will go through the next 2 steps but there is about a 10% chance of it working.

I must not be very trustworthy no one sent me a pm to join in the purchase,

quote:

tom ga hunter: Bottom line it is probably not a deal that a sane person would make....I must not be very trustworthy no one sent me a pm to join in the purchase,

It's not you, it's just that w/o even seeing the numbers alot of folks instinctively agree with your own assessment. I hate to see Winchester fold too.

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
First is was pre 64's. Maybe in two years it will be pre chinese.

there are two chinese made (norinco) pre-64 M70's in a local shop marked down to $300 CDN down from $450 and no takers over a couple years.

The only way I'd fire one of them would be if I tied it to an old tire and used a 50' lanyard. I realize the Chinese are capable of better but wow, you should see these things.

quote:

Originally posted by ForrestB: Somewhere in that mix is room for a new Winchester Model 70 licensee who understands that you can't produce the "Rifleman's Rifle" and sell it at Walmart prices.

This would be my hope as well

quote:

I must not be very trustworthy no one sent me a pm to join in the purchase,

I would love to jump in. Unfortunately the only things I own are a big mouth and a flat wallet. Small town medicne is like being a colonel in the Army. It is a life of genteel poverty.

LD

quote:

Originally posted by tom ga hunter:Bottom line it is probably not a deal that a sane person would make. I will go through the next 2 steps but there is about a 10% chance of it working.

Yes, but some of us are rifle nuts. Keep me posted too.

No way would a "restructure" make sense. As I said the people who come with USARC now are the ones who rode it into the ground. They are bankrupt in every way.

The "package" to create is a new M70 for Olin along with making whatever else of the line thats worth keeping. A new M70 could indeed be introduced. The Classic and CRPF models are ok but a fresh start would be interesting as well. Perhaps the Williams design could have the logo on the receiver and be an improvement?

If you lived in another country on a different continent and wanted to sell USRAC, what would be the best way to get the most out of whatever assets there are?

1. Tell Americans the hallowed WINCHESTER is going away. (Like spurred the origin of USRAC in the first place).

2. Give a "final operation" date at least a few weeks away...to give the city fathers, higher level politicos, unions, press, etc. time to organize a "rescue" effort (new private money, new tax breaks, some hope of new military contract pork barrel efforts, more pressure on the unions to back off, etc.). That date can always be extended under a variety of pretexts.

Put some pressure on the licensor (Olin in this case) to be willing to renew the name rights lease at an attractive price to the new owner. (Olin won't get a lot of short-term money for a name that isn't in use...since copyright "label" price is usually tied to production numbers.)

You can make this list longer and longer, but those three alone tell me there is some chance (maybe very small, but some chance) that at least part of the line will somehow continute, under new ownership.

Will be interesting to watch the corporate/government charade.



P.S. The letter to dealers from "Winchester", which I had thrust on me this morning, clearly indicates the whole line is NOT going away.

Certain shotguns are still to be built, as we all expected, but the one that really caught my attention is that they intend to continue ,making/selling/distributing their "new" design of semi-auto rifle.

Through whom is not transparent, but it does lend a bit of credence to the continued existance of "A" Winchester firearms firm.

I feel about corporate leadership these days about like you do...and I feel the same about politicians of all stripes generally. BUT, your expressed views of India and Japan does not show much understanding of the world, nor a heck of a lot of experience in it either.

Pretty much everyone in every country does the best they can to get themselves and their loved ones through another day alive and well...and in every country, that means a devil of a lot of hard work at any level except the very top.

quote:

Originally posted by tom ga hunter:
got up this morning & made a list, called my former partners @9:00, we had agreed on setting up a new fund & how to structure it by 9:10.. Made 6 calls 2 in Chattanooga & 4 in Atlanta and got committments to fund the purchase fund, called winchester about 10:00 and got the contact's name & number. He called back about 1:00 and we talked about 20 minutes.

Bottom line it is probably not a deal that a sane person would make. I will go through the next 2 steps but there is about a 10% chance of it working.

I must not be very trustworthy no one sent me a pm to join in the purchase,

For a second I thought you were serious about the deal. OK, I'll bite. Whats in it for us if we donated? Stock shares? I know that is not exactly what we are after here but somebody had to ask I guess...

quote:

Originally posted by Snowwolfe:
I am not defending Winchester, but heck, what rifle can you get for under 800 bucks that looks like a craftsman put it together? It simply is not going to happen in the USA in this day and age.

My super grade(NIB for under $800) doesnt look like a craftsman put it together. Nice wood though.

Hey RMK, here's what Matt Williams has to say about USRAC's blameless union workforce:

quote:

As to the whole Winchester is through theory........don't believe all you read.

A company that is going under doesn't order hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of parts the next day.

It makes for a great rumor mill and will likely drive sales, but for them to go belly up would be nearly unheard of.
There's enough high-rollers out there that wouldn't allow such a thing to happen.

They are crippled by their union workforce, just as nearly every company is in the same situation. Workers getting paid more than their worth, doing less work. I've been to the facility on numerous occasions, the latest in December of last year, and I can assure you....nothing has changed. A lot of people standing around getting paid and not working.....typical union.

Get rid of the union and you'll see a prosperous company. If you can't acheive that, it's a dead-end deal for the consumer from here on, as it has been for very long time.

They'll continue to muddle through, but any hopes of a better product, with attention to detail and craftsmanship should be left to the custom gun builders. No one that works there hunts, shoots, or really knows anything about guns....They are business people only. Their heart is not in it as it is for people who make a living building custom rifles for the discriminating shooters.

Matt Williams V.P.
Williams Firearms Company Inc

He's been there. You, OTOH, are in Wyoming. Which leads me to believe that you know shit from shinola about the IAM's responsibility in all of this.

Read a sentiment elsewhere I think, something to the effect of "Gimme three times the quality and twice the price"...yep, and then I'll buy one, or two or three. Somebody upstream in this thread commented that they should build to demand for smaller leaner markets? Yes, absolutely! I would truly enjoy a M70 in 7X57, dimensions, fit and finish up to me and my standards. Their QC tanked somewhere along the way, this is the obvious result.

RMK, you may be crude but your comments are right on the money. The "union" is an excuse used by management for their missmanagement. If workers are standing around doing nothing, it is managements job to inspire them . When a person is standing around looking like they are doing nothing their job is usually to keep an eye on the robotics that replaced the 50 workers who used to be employed as hand checkerers and to push the button that starts and stops the chain saw that tries to simulate checkering on super-grades.

quote:

I must not be very trustworthy no one sent me a pm to join in the purchase,

I am afraid I am in with Lawndart on this one, way above my paygrade.

Now if your doing an IPO or something so us smallfish could chip in it would be a horse of a different color.