Not exactly a gunsmithing question, but I don't know where else to post it.

We know that many/most guns eventually "go away" in the sense that some of them get broken or damaged, fall out of the boat into the lake, get burned up in house fires, are melted down in gun "buy backs", or wear to the point that they are scrapped or used for parts. If this weren't true and guns were around forever then there wouldn't be such a collector's market for Colt Walkers and Winchester 73's -- obviously a large portion of the production of these models has vanished and is no more.

So, say 50, 75, or 100 years after production, how many of a given model would be expected to still be existing in functional form (regardless of how beat up or worn)? In other words, what percentage of the Winchester Model 70's or Savage 99's produced in 1939 (or any other model in any other year) are still with us 73 years later? Has anyone ever seen a study of this or any reliable estimates?

I would say that that depends on the quality of the gun to begin with; ie, those model 70s made in 39 or any year, seem to last forever as they are usually well taken care of by their owners. Cheap double barrel shotguns made in 1910 are usually worn out and beat up because they were not good quality to start with. Shotguns tend to go faster than rifles, being more lightly made and subject to more and harder use in the field. So the answer depends on a lot of factors except age.

I good stainless syt stocked rifle today should go for a couple hundred years ago with half way decent care.

I think what the OP was looking for was the actual decay rate of guns by quantity not just how long an individual gun could last.

Let's say in 1962, 10,000 M70s were made, how many years would it be before there were only 5,000 left, accounting for theft, house fires, backyard bubba gunsmiths, hunters eaten by bears and the rifle lost, tragic boating accidents, basement floods, etc.

The same thing for every other brand/type of firearm.

I think MIT could come up with an Algorithm.

to many variables, to many forgotten guns in basement warehouses

Fjold: You got the idea exactly. What brought the subject up was a discussion with a couple of other guys who are interested in a particular model of rifle which was made for only about three years in the late 1950's and about 10,000 were made. The question was how many of those 10,000 might be still around and functional.

I agree that better, more expensive, and higher grade guns stay around longer since their owners tend to take much better care of them -- but that's peripheral to the basic question of the basic rate of attrition of guns in general.

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
What brought the subject up was a discussion with a couple of other guys...

Say no more... BTW, did this discussion involve a couple of beers?

How many M1 Garands are still going strong after all these years? I would have to think most of them.

I would think that rifles made since the invention of non-corrosive primers have a much better chance of keeping good barrels for a much longer time than any previously made rifles, even if the maintenance was only sporadic. Add stainless steel and I would guess they could last a really long time. Conclusion, recent stainless steel rifles should last a whole lot longer than rifles made in the beginning of the 20th century. You would be comparing apples to oranges to try to come up with a "half-life". They aren't decaying radioactive atoms.

Wink: The durability of a gun certainly enters into the equation. But it seems that more guns cease to exist due to some kind of loss or casualty than due to wear. For example, a gun confiscated from a criminal is destroyed in many jurisdictions. Another example (only a rumor from many years ago), an ocean shipment of Brownings from Belgium was lost when a freighter sank in a storm. If true, although the Brownings never went into service, they were produced but are no longer in existence.

Westpac, this will break your heart, my Dad was in the Navy at the end of WW-2. I cannot remember what island in the pacific he said it was, but Sea-Bees were constructing a new breakwater/dock and they were using Garands, Springfields and captured Jap rifles for rebar. Like to broke his heart! The amount of war material that was destroyed, buried, etc. to save money on transporting it back to the U.S. was tremendous.

You simply can't separate initial quality from the equation; here is an extreme example; in 1975 Colt built 1000 Single Action revolvers, and RG also built 1000 revolvers. I would venture to say that 950 Colts still exist and maybe 95 RGs do.

It is hard to say. Some weapons get "junked" even before ever being issued.

The Smith & Wesson 9mm Light Rifle for example, others just disappear or, what is left get "junked" the 45 ACP Liberator Pistol.

Maybe the longest "lived" are Mauser 98s that seem to get re-cycled as sporting rifles...

quote:

Originally posted by p dog shooter:
I good stainless syt stocked rifle today should go for a couple hundred years ago with half way decent care.

I have to disagree. The stainless barreled action may last hundreds of years, but I would bet most synthetic stocks will be garbage by then.

IME, plastics seem to age fairly quickly. In certain environments plastics begin failing in as little as 10 years(automotive cooling systems) to 20 years(automotive interiors). In a gunsafe a synthetic stock may last a long time, but I wouldn't bet on it being as long as some may think.

Quite a few of my rifles are 100 years old.
I shoot them on a regular basis, I am certain
that they will last longer than I will.
of course the answer is the care they get.

depends entirely on the severity of the traditis disease of the owner

Russian Mosin Nagant 91-30s; 20 million made and it seems like there are 21 million still around. I remember as a kid in the 50s, Sears had them in their catalogs for $9.95. They are cheaper now and in better condition. They are practically indestructible.

I agree with Westpac that alcohol may have been a factor in the original discussion.

As a matter of fact, the discussion was via email and over a couple of days. I can't swear that none of the participants imbibed during that period, but I can assure that the discussion was a sincere one.

Let's make it simpler:

10,000 bolt action centerfire rifles of a particular model were manufactured approximately 50 years ago and were distributed throughout the world, with the largest number of them landing in the U.S. How many of those rifles might reasonably be expected to still be in service somewhere in the world?

A. 65%

B. 80%

C. 95%

D. 99+%

E. None of the above

quote:

Originally posted by JBrown:

quote:

Originally posted by p dog shooter:
I good stainless syt stocked rifle today should go for a couple hundred years ago with half way decent care.

I have to disagree. The stainless barreled action may last hundreds of years, but I would bet most synthetic stocks will be garbage by then.

IME, plastics seem to age fairly quickly. In certain environments plastics begin failing in as little as 10 years(automotive cooling systems) to 20 years(automotive interiors). In a gunsafe a synthetic stock may last a long time, but I wouldn't bet on it being as long as some may think.

Well I've never seen a synthetic rifle stock that has degraded to the point that it is un useable, I am not a big fan of synthetics but would like to see any picture of yours that have seen use to the point of un useability.
Not counting shipwrecks, loss and recovery years later or alien abduction.......

In response to the original posters request I would hazard a guess of 80% of the firearms you asked about being in existence.
Simply worn out used up and then parted or discarded, burnt in a fire or sunk in the drink (loss with no recovery) I can hardly imagine would exceed 20% considering how durable firearms really are.
Loss to theft cannot count as that firearm was not destroyed only removed from the owners posession.
My answer is B. 80%

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
As a matter of fact, the discussion was via email and over a couple of days. I can't swear that none of the participants imbibed during that period, but I can assure that the discussion was a sincere one.

Let's make it simpler:

10,000 bolt action centerfire rifles of a particular model were manufactured approximately 50 years ago and were distributed throughout the world, with the largest number of them landing in the U.S. How many of those rifles might reasonably be expected to still be in service somewhere in the world?

A. 65%

B. 80%

C. 95%

D. 99+%

E. None of the above

And if you just take firearms made by Holland & Holland would you expect different numbers? If so, then there is no way to come up with a "half-life" for all firearms, even for the sake of campfire discussions. Then again, I suppose you could try to figure out the half-life of every model made by every manufacturer. But it ain't nuclear physics so you might want to search for a different term, like "rate of destruction" or "ability to resist obsolescence" or something along those lines. There are all kinds of factors that are so disparate among the different firearms made in the last 100 years alone, that "half-life" seems like a concept of little value.

Why is it easier to find certain old coins and not others? Would half-life be the best way to describe the phenomenon? Why are there so few German Tiger tanks left? Ever see a real one? Would half-life be the best term to describe the phenomenon?

Half-life is a natural, fixed and unchangeable rate of decay. Everything made by man, and consumed or destroyed by man, would seem to me to subject to rates of decay much greater, with variables related to climate, culture, laws, politics (and who knows what else) than even the materials used to make the item.

Half-life is useful because it is predictive and unchangeable.

quote:

Originally posted by Snellstrom:
Well I've never seen a synthetic rifle stock that has degraded to the point that it is un useable, I am not a big fan of synthetics but would like to see any picture of yours that have seen use to the point of un useability.

Snellstrom
I was not very clear. I don't mean that synthetic stocks would get used "to the point of un useability". I was commenting on the fact that plastics in general seem to degrade over time.

In high heat or high UV situations, plastics break down relatively quickly. A rifle usually wont endure these conditions, but I believe it is a bit of a stretch to believe that synthetic stocks will last "a couple of hundred years" as another poster mentioned.

Wink: I'm sorry you are hung up on my use of the term "half life". It seemed fitting to the question, but I'll stipulate that the level of radioactive decay that most of the materials that guns are made of doesn't much come into play in how long they remain in service.

I'll also stipulate that how long a gun remains in service somewhat depends on its initial quality, how it is used, and by whom it is typically owned.

I've tried to make this a simple question, but I'll simplify it one more step so as to exclude both the Purdy's and the Mossbergs. Let's assume - hypothetically -- that 10,000 Remington Model 721/722's were built in 1961. How many of them are still in existence in firing condition today? 65%, 80%, 95%, 99+%, NOTA.

Stonecreek

I think your question is a fascinating one, so I don't know why you are catching flack.

That said, I don't know that we will ever know the answer to you question. There is just no way to know how many of these guns are still around.

If guns were registered like cars it would be easy, but they're not.(Interesting note: of the first million Ford Mustangs built between 1964 and 1966, half of them were still on the road 30 years later.)

Well guns are, of course, registered here in Britain and have been (rifled barrelled weapons since 1920 and smoothbore weapons since 1968) for a long time.

So in theory it would be "easy" to see how many Webley 455 Mk VI revolvers that Webley made (that number IS known) discount those that went to Government contracts either British, South African, Canadian, Irish, etc., etc,.

Then deduct those listed as sold to gun dealers and private individuals outside Britain and see how many of what SHOULD HAVE REMAINED IN THE UK are:

1) Listed as destroyed in the Conservative Government handgun ban of 1988

2) Remain held, still today, lawfully, on private Certificates.

As bolt action rifles were not banned one could also do the same for Parker-Hale rifles. Deducting those listed as exported and then seeing how many are listed as being held on registered Certificates or on Gun Dealer Certificates.