Normal 2011/12 rainfall season forecast
Wednesday, 07 September 2011 02:00


Elita Chikwati Agriculture Reporter


ZIMBABWE expects normal rainfall during the 2011/12 summer cropping season with weather experts urging farmers to plan carefully.
The first half of the season which covers October, November and December is expected to have normal rains with a bias towards below normal rains.

The 2010/11 season was predicted to be normal to above normal throughout the season.
Presenting the seasonal rainfall forecast for the forthcoming cropping season in Harare yesterday, Meteorological Services Department senior forecaster Mr Jephias Mugumbate said regions 1 and 2 were expecting normal rains with a bias towards below normal rainfall.

Region 1 comprises Mashonaland provinces, Harare, North Eastern parts of Manicaland Province and Matabeleland North Province.
"Region 2 and 3 comprised of Matabeleland South, Masvingo the bulk of the Midlands and extreme southern parts of Matabeleland South provinces are expected to receive below normal to normal rainfall during the first half of the rainfall season," he said.
Mr Mugumbate, however, said during the second half of the season (January, February and March), region 1 is expected to have normal rains with a bias towards above normal.
"Regions 2 and 3 are expected to receive above normal rains with a bias towards normal rains and tropical cyclones may occur during this period," he said.

However, Mr Mugumbate said having normal rains did not necessarily translate into good rains, but the forecast was arrived at after considering the rainfall pattern for the past 30 years and coming up with an average.
The average figure is the normal rainfall.

He said cloud seeding will be carried out to enhance rainfall in some parts of the country that would not have received good rains.
"We do not have onset and cessation dates as these will vary from area to area and from crop to crop," he said.
National Early Warning Unit agronomist Miss Tambu Pasipandodya said the season looked good, although this largely depended on the onset dates.
She said farmers in region 1 and 2 could go for normal crops and varieties although there was 30 percent chance that the rainfall would be below normal.

"Farmers in region 3 should also have moisture conservation to prolong the period when there is moisture. Farm operations need to be guided by daily, weekly and 10-day forecasts issued by the Met Office and Agritex officers for informed decisions," she said.

Ms Pasipandodya said if rains were delayed, farmers would have to plant short-season varieties.
She, however, expressed concern over region 3, which is expecting below normal to normal rainfall during the first half of the season.

At times weather experts give predictions that end up giving wrong rainfall patterns.
Last year, Zimbabwe experienced a prolonged dry spell from the first week of February to March, severely affecting crops.
In December there was intense rainfall activity leading to water logging and disruption of spraying.