El Nino rains in 16 regions next month
By Guardian Reporter

6th August 2009

A weather pattern is developing in the Pacific Ocean that will likely result in El Nino rains beginning next month, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency has cautioned.

Mohamed Matitu, the agency’s director for ‘outlook affairs’, said in an interview in Dar es Salaam yesterday that there was “every indication” that the pattern will cause above average rains.



“Let’s hope and pray that the impact this time around will not be like the one which devastated most parts of the country in 2007 and last year, especially the high lands areas, which was associated with outbreaks of water-borne diseases,” he said.



Areas expected to be hit most include Arusha, Coast, Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro, Manyara and Tanga regions as well as the northern part of Morogoro Region and Unguja and Pemba islands.



Matitu said the rains will also likely spread to most other parts of the northern highlands as well as Mara and Kagera regions, the northern portion of Shinyanga Region and parts of Kigoma Region – particularly Kibondo District.

“All areas getting bimodal – or twice- a-year – rains will be affected by the El Nino,” he added, noting that his office was still studying weather trends on the Pacific Ocean to see if there would be any change.



He promised that the agency would issue regular updates on the matter after the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) slated for Kenya next month.



According to the TMA official, the meeting would discuss climate change and give detailed outlook information and come up with other details, including the possible impacts to human and the environment.



At the meeting, the MET official said meteorologists from across Africa and those from the global weather centers will meet for discussion. “After that meeting, each GHACOF member country will get to know their status,” he said.



South Africa’s Weather Service said last week an El Nino weather pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean was likely to lead to drought in much of southern Africa, wreaking havoc on crop and livestock production and hitting national economies.



The latest long-range forecasts suggest that Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zimbabwe and most parts of Mozambique, Zambia and the southern half of Angola will have below average rainfall in the October to March summer rainy season.



The SAWS forecasts showed that Tanzania, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda “should experience good rains, in line with previous El Nino years”.



El Nino, the Spanish for “little boy”, is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean and causes havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.



A severe one in 1998 killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage to crops, mines and infrastructure in Asia and Australia, but produced slightly below average rainfall in southern Africa.



However, relatively minor ones in 1991/92 and 2006/07 caused severe rain shortages in southern Africa. Regional maize production fell by 10 million tonnes in 1991/92, hitting economic growth hard.



By contrast, successive good harvests have been a factor in the racy expansion that many African economies have enjoyed in the last five years.

SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN

I happened to be headed to Tanzania and the Mara next month. I hope I don't get rained out. Thanks for posting this, Kathi. I'll be sure to take rain gear.

I was in the Mara in Feb 2007 and arrived right after the extra-rainy season that year but it was still very flooded. People getting stuck in the mud all over.

I just returned form northern Tanzania last Monday. If ever a place needed some rainfall, it's Simanjiro and the surrounding areas. There's a horrible drought going with game scarce and hundreds of thousands head of cattle and goats ravaging the countryside. I really hope this forecast is correct.