El Nino rains here - weather agency
By Angel Navuri
19th September 2009


EL Nino rains have started falling in the Lake Victoria zone regions and are expected on the country’s eastern coastline in the fourth week of this month, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency said yesterday.

According to TMA acting director general Filbert Tibaijuka, Kagera, Mara and Mwanza regions as well the northern parts of Shinyanga Region are already experiencing the rains.

He said this in an exclusive interview with The Guardian on updates on the rains, which his agency recently announced would set in any time this month.

“The rains have already started in a number of regions, particularly in the Lake Victoria basin, but Coast Region will likely have to wait until the fourth week of the month,” he added.

Tibaijuka explained that, all things being equal, the rains would fall in Coast, Dar es Salaam and Tanga regions as well as the northern section of Morogoro Region together with Zanzibar (both Unguja and Pemba) in the last week of this month – “and will generally be above normal in a few areas”.

The northern zone regions of Arusha, Kilimanjaro and Manyara are expected to receive normal to above normal rains beginning the fourth week of next month, he said, adding that the eastern parts of Arusha Region would get mainly normal rains.

In the western zone regions of Kigoma, Rukwa, Shinyanga and Tabora, the rains are expected to start in the first week of November. They would be above normal just as would be the case in Dodoma and Singida regions beginning three weeks later.

TMA forecasts show the southern highlands zone regions of Iringa and Mbeya receiving the rains beginning the third week of November, while the southern zone regions of Lindi, Mtwara and Ruvuma would have to wait until a week later.

“We see the Lake Victoria basin experiencing sufficient soil moisture levels for a normal cropping season. However, periods of excessive soil moisture levels are likely to have a negatively effect on some crops, reducing yields,” explained Tibaijuka.

“The northern coastal hinterlands of Tanga as well as the Isles and Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro, Manyara and Morogoro regions will experience sufficient soil moisture levels for a normal cropping season. The same will apply for the south western highlands and central and western zone regions,” he added.

The TMA official said the availability of pasture and water for use by livestock and wildlife was expected to improve in most parts of the country.

“Water levels in lakes, dams and rivers are expected to rise substantially in most parts of the country, leading to greater discharges of water. This will be with the exception of the southern areas, where water should be used sparingly and water harvesting techniques should be applied wherever possible,” he elaborated.

He said the El Nino weather phenomenon this time is not expected to be associated with rains as heavy as experienced in 1997/98.

“This is because the Indian Ocean is not expected to respond in a typical El Nino fashion, characterised by simultaneous cooling and warming over Indonesia and the western Indian Ocean and thus triggering dynamics for rainfall enhancement,” he explained.

Government and various other authorities in different parts of the country are reported to be busy coordinating disaster preparedness initiatives, should the El-Nino rains strike with a vengeance.

Government officials and other authorities in regions where experts say El Nino rains will hit hardest have for months been sensitising people on the destruction the rains could cause, a survey by this paper has established.

Co-ordinated efforts are going on to work out modalities and put in place facilities that would help forestall the negative effects of the rains.

Authorities are taking no chances and have formed multi-sectoral rescue operation teams to help mitigate the impact of the rains, should the worst come to the worst.

The teams, according to various sources reached for comment, are tasked with helping communities to deal with insecure conditions or risk factors like poor hygiene and faulty drainage systems in urban areas.

The disaster management unit in the Prime Minister’s Office, the Health and Social Welfare ministry, civil engineering units, weather forecasters and the media are among the agents that have joined hands in disseminating information meant to sensitise and mobilise wananchi.

Regions usually getting above normal rainfall include Dar es Salaam and those in the Lake Victoria zone, where experts say the expected El Nino could be harshest.

Tanzanian and foreign information and communication technology sub-sector stakeholders meanwhile mid this week set the stage for information dissemination to minimise danger to life and property should the rains be particularly heavy.

They met in Dar es Salaam for a three-day workshop beginning Wednesday and devised preparedness strategies to mitigate disasters, particularly those associated with El Nino rains.

Asenath Mpatwa, the International Telecommunications Unit’s regional officer for Africa based in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, said it was crucial for telecommunication stakeholders to see the need for people “to access clear and understandable instructions during emergencies in order to minimise danger”.




SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN