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English Double Rifle Prices??
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What drives English double Rifle Prices??

I Have observed the meteoric rise of English Double Rifle prices since the early 2000's era. I bought my first one, a nice BLE Jeffery 450/400 3" in 92-93 (<$6K) preparing for an elephant hunt...and was still looking for a 470...which I found a year or so later, a Manton $7500...sold the Jeff after the hunt, it was too short for me, and doubled my money...big mistake based on today's ASKING??

I am amused at what I call the "Cabela's Double Bubble"...where they went on a pursuit to "own" the double rifle market. They bought for incredible prices and listed purchases for even higher prices, a formula for making big money??...seems it almost caused a frenzy!!

I recall talking with some of the Higher profile broker/dealers-shaking thier heads-"I can't go there as I can't tell a client I can resell, consign or trade at those prices in 5 years when you want to sell/trade??" Well, seems over time, they had to follow...and now we seem to be stuck in the stratosphere??!!...and Cabela's is completely OUT!!
Yup, not an English double on the rack at SCI, and not one in the Libraries these days...they have gone to selling only the Sabatti's and a few of the other European rifles...Go Figure??!!
Check out the excellent website- Guns International...many of those English guns have been there for over 2 YEARS!!...some dealers have been so braizen to RAISE prices in that timeframe!
Now with the excellent Verney, Chapuis and a few others, American customs, that sets the bar quite a bit lower for similar calibers...ie 33-50% of present English asking..So, NOW WHAT??
I am sure that the English guns that do sell are sold to knowledgeable buyers for numbers well below the asking. I am also sure there is an Inner Circle of buyers and sellers that still trades reasonably today "under the radar."
*I ask myself, when will the bubble burst??
*I can't buy at these prices and expect to make a buck or two 10 years down the line...as we used to??
I know there are those out there that making a buck doesn't make a difference...or even getting out. It does to me!!
I understand the fine hand work and the English names add the panache...but I am just wondering if/when the gig will be up and they come back out of the stratosphere like real estate, jewelry and the stock market...and get back into a supply and demand cycle of reasonable or at least justifiable numbers against alternatives?? And YES, there should be a premium against the Continental new manufacture guns...but what is that premium...where guns will sell again?? Yes, they aren't making any more OLD English rifles...there is a finite number of these fine pieces...it is like waterfront real estate, or old Masters Art...but not all of these are prime real estate or old Masters...just trade guns at 4x-5x what they were 10 years ago...Interestingly, seems to me that the old Masters, the Bespoke guns, H&H, Purdey,etc....have increased, but NOT 4-5x the old days??!!
I am interested in a real enthusiastic commentary...you won't offend me!! Is this a BUBBLE?? What do you see in your Crystal Ball??


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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I don't think it is a bubble like the stock market. My thoughts are they may slow some, but we won't see a drawback, just some leveling & then gradually move higher. JMHO.


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Posts: 1587 | Location: Eleanor, West Virginia (USA) | Registered: 20 April 2002Reply With Quote
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I really haven't seen prices rise by 5x in the last 10 years. Solid well conditioned guns are not abundant and are sought by both hunters and collectors. I don't believe we will see any significant decreases in prices over the next few years for good guns.
 
Posts: 134 | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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My crystal ball shows exactly the same thing happening in other vintage collectable guns like Winchesters, Colts and Mauser snipers; prices are now all in the realm of the well to do collector who does not care what the price is; he wants it and will have it. The same for art and land. Just come here to the Rock Island Auction and you will see what I mean. Back in the 70s and 80s, double rifles were very common and relatively cheap. I bought a couple, and stupidly sold them to buy modern stuff, which is now worth nothing and the DRs are worth several times what I paid for them. So if you can afford them, buy now; they will go up. Iowa farm land too. There are still plenty of lesser name English doubles out there but not for the couple of $K that we used see.
 
Posts: 17477 | Location: USA | Registered: 02 August 2009Reply With Quote
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I notice in the last 4 years or so that many English classic doubles have come on the market and are just sitting there. Look at Champlins & GI. In 2006 one could barely find a reasonable condition one for US$25k. Today there are several around the US$15k to $20k. Some of them are obviously restored rifles and there is even one with a Monte Carlo stock that has been there for 3 or 4 years.

I do not think the price for those lower end English rifles will go up. I think they are just rifles that people had in the cabinet and now want to sell because times are hard or they want to get the less expensive European models.

The other thing I find is that some OLD H&H doubles are availale for US$35k or there abouts. Again - none were in this category 5 years ago.

I personally think that the really good conditions English rifles will hold their value and probably appreciate a bit but the ones that have been restored etc. will not go back to the top levels of the past. JMHO.


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Posts: 11424 | Location: New Zealand | Registered: 02 July 2008Reply With Quote
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In answer to the OP, I do know a couple buyers whom don't even bother to shop the internet sites. And yes, much of the really nice stuff changes hands behind the scenes and doesn't go on the public market.
My opinion of the rise in the English double market is that there has been a general resurgence of interest in classic rifles in general and doubles in particular. Then, the better availability of ammunition such as 470, 450 and 450/400 has made ownership a bit more bearable to those that don't reload.
Also, keep in mind that we are in the era of $30K (and more) bolt guns, and I am not even talking vintage bolt guns. So in that light, $25K+ for a good vintage double looks to be pretty good value!
 
Posts: 3405 | Location: Colorado U.S.A. | Registered: 24 December 2004Reply With Quote
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In 2005, I bought a Rodda 450/ 400 Jeff. from Caswell at D.S.C. for $6500. Last year at DSC, Willoughby- McCabe had its twin for 24K! It looked like it was polished on a belt sander. My gun is in nice condition and shoots well, but I would say, in the English Double world, it is probably the Chevy Impala of rifles. I think a lot of greedy dealers have driven the prices up artificially on the internet, mostly on "bread and butter" lesser name rifles.


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Posts: 2278 | Location: Texas | Registered: 18 May 2004Reply With Quote
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I know I used to have a William Evans underlever in 450/400 3 1/4 Nitro Express with the original oak and leather case. I sold it about 7 years ago and I sure as hell wish I'd have held onto it. With the prices they get now, I'll never be able to replace it.
 
Posts: 2940 | Location: Colorado by birth, Navy by choice. | Registered: 26 September 2010Reply With Quote
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A very thoughtful OP.

It is interesting that another post talked about how land holds its value and thus DRs will, too. That would sure keep me worried if buying for investment purposes--US real estate is down something like a quarter or a third?

If I were looking at a new investment class and wondering if past growth will become a popped bubble, I would read Manias, Panics, and Crashes, by Charles Kindleberger. It is likely the authoritative text on speculative bubbles.

What do I personally think? I tend to stay away from investments that have opaque and likely high transaction costs (What is a typical dealer mark-up on a "vintage" DR? Is there even such a thing?). And I like using firearms, not keeping them in pristine condition for the next guy.
 
Posts: 72 | Registered: 17 October 2008Reply With Quote
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Lots of interesting thoughts and comments!

lee440 makes my point exactly, ie the meteoric rise of 4-5x in the last 10 years!! And YES, there are lots of poorly restored guns out there at ridiculous prices....even though porper English restoration is common and accepted...they do it right!!

I reallly think the auction market attracts the better to best guns available and not the typical rifle one sees on the internet sites. When you get a few old rogues bidding on a nice piece, wise buying is out the door...it becomes a fight to the end with no reason to prices!!

That said, there are also some nice buys on the auction market, but remember lots of the dealer/brokers are out there buying and then come back to the market bearing the cost of the buyers and sellers premiums too!!

Yes the new ammo now available makes certain calibers of old doubles now much more shootable and huntable....does this drive the prices...probably not much. I think it is the old romantic names that drive this more...and rightfully so...better rifles, probably now.

I have certainly NOT seen the $25-30K bolt action custom rifles. I ahve seen some English bolt guns in this arena and some of the old Jeffery's with provanence in 416Rigby and 505 Gibbs.... I also note that the resale of expensive Custom bolt guns is really a shock...ie 50% losses or more??!! There doesn't seem to be a collectors market in these yet...

As an old corporate money man, following trends and history is my forte. Personally, I see a bloated price and inventory of the English trade guns, and just like the housing bubble, driven by artificial factors and no end to UP mentality...I see a precipitous fall in the near term in double prices.

Dealers and brokers simply can't hold this very expensive inventory without turning it once in a while....or they will be eating beans....most are NOT independently wealthy and do it for thier enjoyment...they have to pay the bills too!!

It is my opinion that deals will only happen when we get back to willing seller-willing buyer levels...there seems to be a huge gap right now...ie sitting inventory?? Lots if Pie in the Sky sellers...??

Fact is that new English guns have become much more reasonable these days due to the favorable $US/Pound exchange rates.

The Cabela's exit from this market is telling me something...their bean counters drive the ship and they have changed course...I think we should be watching what happens next.

I am holding on....


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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470,
You say that you bought your first double a Jeffery in 1993. Paid approximately 6K for it sold it a year or so later for double that (10 to 12K?) and now 15 years or so later similar guns have an asking price of 24K? Doesn't seem all that meteoric. There are always overpriced guns on the market. It is also difficult to compare prices on similar guns without comparing each gun on its merits. Two guns built exactly alike 150 years ago could now be worlds apart in condition. Some don't take this into consideration when pricing or comparing pricing.
I believe the new gun market serves to fuel the used English gun market as new owners are introduced to doubles and many wish to own a piece of doublegun history someday.
 
Posts: 134 | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:
Yes the new ammo now available makes certain calibers of old doubles now much more shootable and huntable....


YIKES----I repeat, YIKES


Please be careful putting new modern ammo through your fine double guns. With a bit of research on this website you will find information and research on pressures and potential problems that may destroy older Doubles.

Sorry to go off subject, but I hate to see that happen to anyone here.

ZZZ
 
Posts: 389 | Location: Montana, USA | Registered: 29 April 2002Reply With Quote
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what do you guys figure a H&H Royal Sidelock in 577 NE will go for? Just saw one on TV today, what a gorgeous rifle. jorge


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Posts: 7151 | Location: Orange Park, Florida. USA | Registered: 22 March 2001Reply With Quote
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Gatsby....read a little closer, bought the first one in 92-93, bought the Manton 470 a year or so later, then sold the Jeff AFTER the elephant hunt...I didn't say when, but actually I recall around 2000....and I didn't say how much....actually about 50% more than purchase...so little more than 5%/year. Good appreciation, but not much more than Interest rates at that time!!
My point is that today, from there, the asking has gone almost another 150% and I have not seen pix of one as nice..it had been fully restored properly by H&H who owned the name at that time. It was just too short for me or I would still have it... and I didn't want to restock it...for obvious reasons!!...
Still wish I hadn't sold it...but a good friend has it, has taken it to Africa several times and we have shot at the Eastern Oregon DR Shoot...and we call it "OUR RIFLE"!!
ZZZ- actually I shoot more old Kynoch than anything else, it was just a comment to a related price issue, ie popularity...that said, I have NOT seen the posts stating that damage can occur shooting new ammo in Nitro Proofed older rifles??...thank you, I will research that!! My Manton 470 sure likes Federal Safari Premium ammo...but I think the new Hornady is really too hot!! I sure do like the big orange muzzle blast with old Cordite and the smell...I just get concerned that it might NOT go BANG in a dangerous game situation...


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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Was just thinking of Elmer Keith's Westley Richards in the upcoming Holts auction.
The estimate is roughly $40K-$50K. That is with Keith markup. My guess is that may be low but for arguments sake lets say the high end for a no provenance gun.
He sold it in the early '70s for $5500.
It would have been $600+/- in the early '40s.
So, there was a 9X increase from 1942-1972 (30yrs) and say an 8X increase from 1972-2012 (40yrs).
I don't know how many people were walking around with $6K in the early '70s, but that is just shy of what you would have needed to buy a used Mercedes 300SL, and those dang things are half a million nowdays!
 
Posts: 3405 | Location: Colorado U.S.A. | Registered: 24 December 2004Reply With Quote
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Its not the guns that have gotten expensive its that our money has become worthless. Cool
 
Posts: 134 | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by gatsby:
Its not the guns that have gotten expensive its that our money has become worthless. Cool


Consider a US dollar had $1.00 of purchasing power in 1967. By 1978 that same US dollar was worth $0.51, by 1990 it was worth $0.25, and by 2010 it was only worth $0.15. So, considering purchasing power of the dollar alone, a double rifle that cost $6,000 in 1967 would cost $40,000 in 2010.


http://mykindred.com/cloud/TX/Documents/dollar/




.
 
Posts: 10900 | Location: North of the Columbia | Registered: 28 April 2008Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by 470EDDY:
Gatsby....read a little closer, bought the first one in 92-93, bought the Manton 470 a year or so later, then sold the Jeff AFTER the elephant hunt...I didn't say when, but actually I recall around 2000....and I didn't say how much....actually about 50% more than purchase...so little more than 5%/year. Good appreciation, but not much more than Interest rates at that time!!
My point is that today, from there, the asking has gone almost another 150% and I have not seen pix of one as nice..it had been fully restored properly by H&H who owned the name at that time. It was just too short for me or I would still have it... and I didn't want to restock it...for obvious reasons!!...
Still wish I hadn't sold it...but a good friend has it, has taken it to Africa several times and we have shot at the Eastern Oregon DR Shoot...and we call it "OUR RIFLE"!!
ZZZ- actually I shoot more old Kynoch than anything else, it was just a comment to a related price issue, ie popularity...that said, I have NOT seen the posts stating that damage can occur shooting new ammo in Nitro Proofed older rifles??...thank you, I will research that!! My Manton 470 sure likes Federal Safari Premium ammo...but I think the new Hornady is really too hot!! I sure do like the big orange muzzle blast with old Cordite and the smell...I just get concerned that it might NOT go BANG in a dangerous game situation...


Eddy,

Take a look at the "Double Rifle Bullet of the Future" thread by Michael458 if you haven't already. This is where you'll find extensive data with concerns of shooting modern ammo in vintage guns. You mention the Hornday being too hot. Could very well be. But of more importance, the DGS bullet is showing the second highest barrel strain of all bullets tested. The highest being the Woodleigh FMJ. Seems to be this way across the board in all calibers tested. This is a separate issue from pressure, but could be a real consideration in older weapons with softer steel than todays guns.
 
Posts: 8537 | Registered: 09 January 2011Reply With Quote
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The Hornady .470 load may or may not be hot but I'm pretty sure their .450/.400 is a tropical load, being about 100fps slower than Kynoch's.

As to what drives English double rifle prices, the cost of a new one is the obvious arbiter. Old rifles of any type will normally cost a proportion of the new price, unless that type can't bought new any more, in which case it could have increased collectability. Old BP rifles will generally be cheaper than NE, however, even though not made any more but, compared with their original prices when new, have still done well in nominal if not real terms.

Currency movements will also affect the prices outside the UK.

Certain brands can have increased cachet, of course, and special factors may come into play. During the 1970s a post-colonial cringe developed, along with loss of traditional hunting fields and production of at least the less-common NE ammo. This plus an influx of old stuff from India made DB rifles cheaper for a time in Australia, at least.
 
Posts: 5216 | Location: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: 31 March 2009Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by Grenadier:
... a double rifle that cost $6,000 in 1967 would cost $40,000 in 2010.


Actually if those are real prices, that would mean that the price of the gun has stayed relatively the same...

The average income in the US in 1967 was $7,200, so a 6K double was about a years wages. In 2011 the average wage is $46,326, so a 40K double of the exact same type is about in the same ballpark price wise.

To get a true reference we must use actual prices.

So did a good double really cost 6K in 1967 and the exact equvalent cost 40K now??? I don't know about 1967 but I can tell you about 1910.

In the 1910 H&H catalouge a Royal double rifle cost 75 guineas. In 1910 US dollars that is $375. The average US income in 1910 was $750 per year. So a H&H royal double rifle would cost the average guy 53% of his yearly income.

In 2010 The average income is $46,326. A H&H royal cost starts at 95K pounds (per H&H website) or $150,603 US dollars - a little over three times the average yearly wage.

So when it comes to certain items the cost has basically gone up over three times.

If the cost of a H&H royal had maintaned its price of 53% of the average US yearly income, it should cost only $24,553 today.

We bloody wish.
 
Posts: 270 | Location: Bay Area, CA | Registered: 19 August 2009Reply With Quote
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Unless you work for the Government today...average is $66K...yup 50% MORE than Private Jobs!!...tells you something about our US problems, eh??
Now, I am not sure many/any "average income" guys/gals are buying doubles...then or NOW?? Why do you think H&H calls their premier double ROYAL??....perhaps built for Royals??
Seems to me that the "average double buyer" is probably one of the late Obama targets, ie the HIGH INCOME crowd...and by my measure, $200-250K isn't really HIGH by today's standards of Double Income families...that said, many of these are now unemployed...the contractors, successful car dealers, business owners, attorneys, Docs...and even airline pilots salaries are WAY DOWN....
So maybe the depressed $US, unemployemnt, and economy in general...and now a tank of gas costs the same as a good box of Double Rifle cartridges??


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by 470EDDY:
So maybe the depressed $US, unemployemnt, and economy in general...and now a tank of gas costs the same as a good box of Double Rifle cartridges??


No,the average guy of 1910 was probably not saving up to buy a H&H royal...

But I use the average wage as a reference to bounce inflation off of, so we can get a true picture of how our buying power has really degraded.

So in 1910 the average guy would have had to give up half a years salary for a H&H royal. Today he would have to give up three years salary.

In my collection of african hunting books - I have read more than a few references by old time hunters & even game wardens of placing orders with H&H, rigby, jeffery, and others in the london trade for rifles.

So while expensive, it was within reach for these guys if they saved thier money. (and probably more bolt rifles were ordered then doubles)

Are H&H, WR, or even Jeffery within reach for PH's today - Mostly, Hell no.

Basically it is a combination of government monetary policy ruining our currency, and a bucket of new/different taxes & gov programs every year, that are increasing the cost of living.

We are having to work more for less...
 
Posts: 270 | Location: Bay Area, CA | Registered: 19 August 2009Reply With Quote
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When we compare conditions today with those of decades past, we cannot forget that other factors such as how well equipped the trade is to produce best guns.
In Greener's "The Gun" it is noted that the engraving was one of the least expensive steps in producing a best gun.
Today, I would wager it is the most expensive and time consuming part of producing a gun.
So, we need to take into account that engravers were quite common in the late 19th and first half of the 20th centuries and not common at all today.
 
Posts: 3405 | Location: Colorado U.S.A. | Registered: 24 December 2004Reply With Quote
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TwoZero's figures are of great interest and I have seen a Jeffery's catalogue from about 1907 that showed analogous figures.

So why were the British rifles so 'cheap' then? Can't be sure but I suspect it was because English wages were depressed while those in the New World, particularly Australia, were freer.

And why are the London guns so dear now, even though H&H admit to using some machines to make them? Well, I think it is because they can be. What was once a tool the hunter needed but expected to get at a reasonable price is now an investment icon in a time when the rich are getting richer faster than ever before. (For instance, I hear top CEOs used to make 70 times the average worker's wage but are now pushing 500 times.) The best gunmakers have come to crank up their prices magnificently every year or two and know the mega-rich will pay whatever is needed. Meanwhile, those who have already bought theirs applaud the price rise because it underwrites their investments.
 
Posts: 5216 | Location: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: 31 March 2009Reply With Quote
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Huvius has a good point. “My opinion of the rise in the English double market is that there has been a general resurgence of interest in classic rifles in general and doubles in particular. Then, the better availability of ammunition such as 470, 450 and 450/400 has made ownership a bit more bearable to those that don't reload.”
I can remember in the 60’s when ammo wasn’t available at any price for many of the European calibers. I think we should offer a prayer of thanks to manufactures like Horanady who are producing quality ammo at better prices.
There is one other thing that I think is driving the interest in double rifles. The new and better means of communication. You are using one of the most important changes in how we communicate since the invention of the printing press. We can communicate instantly with people around the world about anything. More doubles in more places. There are more people being exposed to the evil double rifle virus than ever before. You can watch video on ytube for hours of doubles being shot and hunted.
You could take a double to a crowded range in say 1965 and you probley wouldn’t find 1 person who had ever seen one before. Now you might find someone else with one on the line with you.
The point I am trying to make is the pool of people who were interested in and bought doubles almost died out when ammo dried up after Kynoch shut down production.
There may have been a few but if you can’t get ammo you can’t shoot your rifle. Now we have money more and the size of the pool is growing all the time. The bigger the demand the higher the price.
Bill


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Posts: 1132 | Location: Fort Worth, Texas | Registered: 09 May 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by jorge:
what do you guys figure a H&H Royal Sidelock in 577 NE will go for? Just saw one on TV today, what a gorgeous rifle. jorge


You know what they say Jorge. If you have to ask, you can't afford it! Wink



 
Posts: 5210 | Registered: 23 July 2002Reply With Quote
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No doubt and I can't afford his hat either!


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Posts: 7151 | Location: Orange Park, Florida. USA | Registered: 22 March 2001Reply With Quote
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I have been doing some research since the warnings about the New Ammo in vintage rifles! Right , bang on I Have found!!....friend of mine told me he has seen a $35K Westley Richards come apart after only 6 rounds with Woodleigh solids!! Seems they are made with a thick and hard steel jacket over a lead core and there is little to no give....this is destructive to old more mild steel than today....
My friend recommends the new CEB banded bullets, of course handloaded if you need Solids...I guess if you don't handload, then Superior or Safari Arms can do the job for you...thank you guys, a lesson well learned!!

Jorge- last H&H Royal in 577 I saw was with Mike Schwandt...I recall in the mid-$150'sK that is, it is still in his SOLD files on the website! I think Connecticut Shotgun has one from the Bob Peterson Collection??

....last one I shot doubled on me...and boy did that leave a lasting memory!! Seems it had been shot so much the interlocking sears didn't work.

So, I really haven't seen a good answer to: WHY ARE THERE OVER 100 NICE ENGLISH DOUBLES GOING BEGGING ON GUNS INTERNATIONAL TODAY...SOME OVER TWO YEARS??...as well as a multitude of other brokers sites, etc??


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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As a complete neophyte to the erudite auctioning of and price point for sale of classic English double rifles, I have only one point to have you ponder: Market prices do recede from time to time.

Evidence: fungible good, price of silver in 1980 ~40.00 per ounce. Today: ~35.00 per ounce.

Non-fungible good: residential housing.

Need I say more?

Sincerely,

Chris Bemis
 
Posts: 2594 | Location: Pennsylvania | Registered: 30 July 2006Reply With Quote
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quote:


So, I really haven't seen a good answer to: WHY ARE THERE OVER 100 NICE ENGLISH DOUBLES GOING BEGGING ON GUNS INTERNATIONAL TODAY...SOME OVER TWO YEARS??...as well as a multitude of other brokers sites, etc??


What is an appropriate # of guns to be for sale? Maybe GI does a good job of attracting clientele? Which guns have been there "too" long? Wouldn't you have to discuss them individually?
 
Posts: 134 | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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Thanks, Eddy, It sure was a nice rifle.


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Posts: 7151 | Location: Orange Park, Florida. USA | Registered: 22 March 2001Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by 470EDDY:
...
So, I really haven't seen a good answer to: WHY ARE THERE OVER 100 NICE ENGLISH DOUBLES GOING BEGGING ON GUNS INTERNATIONAL TODAY...SOME OVER TWO YEARS??...as well as a multitude of other brokers sites, etc??


Prices tend to be rather "stickey" - especially when a market has taken a downturn. People just don't want to take a loss (or admit that they overpaid to begin with) even thought they bought the gun during a bubbble.

There is also the tendency for people to look at guns as an "investments" - it is one of the big justifications people use to buy them. But excepting certain collectables, guns on the whole are not very good long term investments.

So if you have put your gun up for sale and it has not sold for two years - then you are charging more than the current market is willing to pay.

Of course you can play a long term waiting game and hope that the market bounces back...

Good luck with that one.
 
Posts: 270 | Location: Bay Area, CA | Registered: 19 August 2009Reply With Quote
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quote:

Of course you can play a long term waiting game and hope that the market bounces back...



Since the price of British double rifles has increased possibly 1000-fold over the past 100 years, this makes a reasonable inflation hedge compared with many other assets, distortions accepted. For this pattern to stop altogether now would be strange, despite the slowness of the market recently.

But as Keynes or Galbraith said: in the long run we're all dead.
 
Posts: 5216 | Location: Melbourne, Australia | Registered: 31 March 2009Reply With Quote
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AAH!!...TwoZero BANG ON!! My Point exactly and backed up with analagous products by YALE.. that have soared in a Bubble as well...perhaps the English doubles did in fact follow the Housing bubble driven by Mortgage Brokers offering negoitable terms to unqualified buyers...and maybe gold and silver(which has industrial uses too) runs as well...I still submit E.Doubles, driven by the Cabela's pursuit of English doubles.
Gatsby...I am not complaining about GI display of nice English Doubles....my point is they would come and go if there were "willing buyers" to take "willing sellers" offerings!
I still submit there is going to be a precipituous fall in present asking prices, eventually...how much, IDAKNOW!!
I know this not a betting Forum so I will not offer a bet...but I would throw some numbers out for 1 year and 5 years...30% for one year, the cliff that usually occurs when a fall begins, then maybe 50% TOTAL over 5 years??
Example- Jeffrey 450-400 3" BL. Used to sell under $10K...today $19-24K..preponderance to the high end, regardless of condition...so, 30% drop puts them at $16.8K...five years and 50% back to $12K. That's pretty significant!!
Should we throw out some numbers we would pay today in a Fantasy Market...gun and seller specific?? I am game!!


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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Originally posted by 470EDDY:

Should we throw out some numbers we would pay today in a Fantasy Market...gun and seller specific?? I am game!!



I'll take a Westley droplock 577 fully engraved for 12K. lol
 
Posts: 134 | Registered: 28 October 2006Reply With Quote
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HA,HA, nice try...add a zero and you got it!!

OK, let's try this one:
Jeffrey 450-400 3" BL, range on GI $19-24K
I would buy a nice one at $12,500 today.

Another:
Webley & Scott BL 405 Win, asking $14,250.
I would buy today for $10,000

Another:
Bentley & Playfair 375 Flanged Mag, asking $29,000, reduced from $39,000.
I would buy today for $14,000. Note I can buy a super William Evans for $19K
What do you think?


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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470Eddy,
The prices YOU would be willing to pay is no indication of what the market really is.
I would pay that for the guns you mention above as well.
The thing is, looking at guns advertised on GI gives no indication of what the guns really trade for.
I would think that most guns on GI either sell right away because they are priced right or linger because they are too high - naturally, right? Then, when they do finally sell, they go for 10-20% lower than the asking price.
This also depends on whether they are offered by a dealer who has a target price which he "has" to get or by a private party who may be willing to deal based on his need for cash or circumstances of ownership (inheritance etc.)
IMO, guns should be invested in as one would invest in art. You better be willing to have it a long time and like what you will be stuck with if the market has a downturn. Buy what you really like and then care not if the market slips. At least it isn't the same as new cars which always lose value or the stock market where your money simply disappears!
 
Posts: 3405 | Location: Colorado U.S.A. | Registered: 24 December 2004Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by 470EDDY:
HA,HA, nice try...add a zero and you got it!!

OK, let's try this one:
Jeffrey 450-400 3" BL, range on GI $19-24K
I would buy a nice one at $12,500 today.

Another:
Webley & Scott BL 405 Win, asking $14,250.
I would buy today for $10,000

What do you think?


Since you ask, let's try this one. I think you should step up to the plate and put your money where your mouth is. These are not my guns. Don't have a dog in the fight. Just saying, money talks and bullshit walks. Make your offer. So......"swing batter batter, swing batter batter, swing batter batter swing". Hope you get them. Wink Let us know.

sofa


Deo Vindice,

Don

Sons of Confederate Veterans Black Horse Camp #780
 
Posts: 1711 | Location: Virginia | Registered: 01 February 2009Reply With Quote
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Point is, I have...several times...no go, they just SIT, and SIT and SIT!!


470EDDY
 
Posts: 2711 | Location: The Other Washington | Registered: 24 March 2003Reply With Quote
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