It will be interesting to see what might happen to double rifle prices with the colapse of oil prices. For most of the year Texas boomed while the rest of the country slowed down. Oil country is now getting killed so you have to imgine the spending on things like double rifles will drop significantly and the buying of new pieces for the collection will slow or stop.

I don't know how many double owners are tied to Oil Production. Most of the double owners I know are not.

More importantly, how much less of disposable income is there from folks who use that money to hunt in Africa. I suppose that that attendance at DSC and SCI would say something?

Trust me whan I tell you that those who benefitted from high oil prices have plenty of $$ to go around.

We're used to this up and down out here in the oil patch....Yes we'll see a big adjustment in the way biusinesses are operating, but those whao made it still got it!

I don't anticipate any change in the spending habits of the Oilmen.

JW out

At our manufacturing facility in Odessa, Charles A. Templeton Machine, Inc. we just bought a new large manual lathe and a new Okuma L-470 live tooling CNC. Business is good!

Our biggest problem is finding qualified people who can pass a drug test. It's a damn shame!

I will be interesting to check back in a few months to see if anything changes.

Barnett Shale for me and I am still hedged!

My income is not totally tied to oil but a big chunk is (transportation & storage). We've not seen this 'bust' the first poster aludes to. We're still working away down here in the oil capital. Of course some slowing but no way near enough to force anyone to liquidate the 'ole arsenal.

Doubtful you'll see the oil industry begging congress for a handout. We didn't do it in the early 80's. We'll leave that to the bankers & auto companies.

Pete A.

We are seeing a slowdown already, not drastic but still a downturn. I feel next year is going to be slow in the oil service industry. I have been wanting to buy a double, but right now in the current economy I cannot justify it. I would rather spend the 12K as a down payment on another trip to Africa.

to bad im not looking to move to texas im a machinist and have been in the trade since i was 17... damn near 27 yrs old now

have exp doing all kinds stuff from auto motive parts to turbines to blowers larg industrial steel factory forgings and casting equpment

and im drug tested as its required to get onto the oil sites.

i dont drink and i dont smoke... the only vice i have is guns and my wife.... lol.

If oil prices and nat. gas hang in the range they're in now or lower, then anyone who thinks it won't DRASTICALLY affect the oil patch is whistling past the graveyard. Just one oil company I own stock in has cut BILLIONS off it's exploration and drilling budget for next year alone and that is mostly in Tx, Ok, Ar, and La. If you think that doesn't add up or down, depending on your point of view, just give it a while. Whether that will affect the people who buy double rifles or not is another question.

Here in Western Oklahoma, life is good. I am the Marketing Director for a chain of convenience stores and truck stops. While our industry suffered -9.5% nationwide in 2008, My business was up 10-24% due to the crews of oilfield service companies that trade with us. This trend has been running since 2004. We sit on a combination of oil and natural gas fields and though there has been a leveling off of drilling, I don't see anything near the crash of the early 1980's. I was a senior open hole engineer with Gearhart at the time and have felt the pain of a region-wide industry die. With both the Republican and the "Less-Informed" parties preaching "DRILL, DRILL,DRILL" I don't see this being any more than a minor slow down until the financial BS in banking stabilizes. At least that is what my business is showing.
But, what do I know?

I haven’t seen the drilling stop or slow much around hear. The main players did cut back on leasing. I noticed several more rigs drilling setting up this weekend. The main thing is they need more pipeline capacity. I personally would like to see natural gas go up some. I was never interested in natural gas prices till I became a royalty owner.
Bill

They're still exploring in East Texas. Business has slowed down quite a bit from what it was a year ago, but none of the roughnecks I know have been laid off yet.

We sell lots of electrical to oil patch and business has slowed down around a little...some attribute it to the fall in oil prices, some attribute it to the crappy weather, some just say "its this time of year." However, I'm still dodging saltwater trucks on the highway and nobody's been laid off yet so I guessing things are still rolling.

As long as oil stays above $30-$50 a barrel, the oil companies will still make money and continue to explore. Rig count may be down, but not by that much.

In my corner of Oklahoma (NW) gas wells are being drilled, leases are being signed and they just put a pipeline through my favorite deer hunting area!

I can look out my kitchen window and see a rig right now, and a landman called last week to lease the two acres my house is on.

So I think the oil industry is doing OK so far.

But I still think that right now is a good time to keep your eyes and ears open and cash in hand. There will be some bargains to be had, just not necessarily from oilmen.

Long term pricing above $40 per bbl makes alternative fuels and technologies viable. The producers (and their political buddies) know this and will do their best to maximize returns over the long term by only occasionally pushing pushing prices above this. As long as it looks like prices will always return to $40 (or below) eventually and for a long enough time to make the payback on new tech investment too long or uncertain, it'll never happen.

Anyone who thinks the companies aren't making enough to justify exploration at that price is out to lunch. Now the real question is, to what degree were companies stupid enough to really increase their exploration in a world of $100+ bbl oil when no one in their right mind beleived it would stay there.

While I'm not totaly sad, I'll say the economy will effect us all in time. I have raised cost on some of my companys products to raise profits, but I incured my losses on increased headstock cost in the last 2 quarters. of 08.

I think the company will do fine as we are very conservitive and plan for storms. What I hate is my 401K has taken major hits! We are not in control of these funds and can only pick from a list of M. funds or can put it in Money market type accounts. I'm young enough to stand it right now, but how depressing. I will have to make up about 8 years of saving. It will make me a lot more careful in my choices next time.

Back to the subject. I dont look for doubles to go down. The only reason prices in the 70's and 80's were reasonable were on ammo aval. not high inflation or other economic troubles. People who want a double will buy a double!

As far as Texas goes, it is still one of the most reasonable places to live, and I was born and raised here. Our economy is not all oil based anymore and I see more and more "plates from out of state" everyday here.In my OP we are getting to many folks.

Been on the road too long sorry for the rant.

Ed

after 20 plus yrs with a caterpillar dealer as a mechanic, i'm glad that i'm not chasing rigs like i was before... 150k miles a year gets old quick... now i'm chasing stand-by generators, like the 1's at the hospitals, and in people's back yards.... not quite as demanding.... i've went thru the boom and bust in the early 80's... from venezula and the yucutan, to all over west texas and the gulf....

quote:

go big or go home ........

That about sums it up!

JW out

quote:

Originally posted by GeoffM24:
It will be interesting to see what might happen to double rifle prices with the colapse of oil prices. For most of the year Texas boomed while the rest of the country slowed down. Oil country is now getting killed so you have to imgine the spending on things like double rifles will drop significantly and the buying of new pieces for the collection will slow or stop.

Enjoy it (cheap oil prices) while it lasts, because the fundamentals haven't changed that much. We still consume more oil than we produce, large old oil fields are in decline, we are exploring for oil in more expensive places (deepwater, artic, etc.), tar sand projects are being delayed, China & India still want/need energy, oil companies are scaling back their budgets to reflect current prices.

Most in the oil/gas industry don't believe that these low prices are here for that long.

quote:

Originally posted by MHC_TX:

quote:

Originally posted by GeoffM24:
It will be interesting to see what might happen to double rifle prices with the colapse of oil prices. For most of the year Texas boomed while the rest of the country slowed down. Oil country is now getting killed so you have to imgine the spending on things like double rifles will drop significantly and the buying of new pieces for the collection will slow or stop.

Enjoy it (cheap oil prices) while it lasts, because the fundamentals haven't changed that much. We still consume more oil than we produce, large old oil fields are in decline, we are exploring for oil in more expensive places (deepwater, artic, etc.), tar sand projects are being delayed, China & India still want/need energy, oil companies are scaling back their budgets to reflect current prices.

Most in the oil/gas industry don't believe that these low prices are here for that long.

Oil and commodity prices have always dropped as the US has gone into recession and stayed low long after, it was different this time do to the theory that their was decoupling of the BRIC (Brazil, Russian, India China) economies from the US economy. This all proved to be BS.

As you can see the high prices were NEVER about US consumption, it was about the growing BRIC consumption which has fallen off the face of the earth and isn't coming back anytime soon.

The other issue is that most OPEC countries have ramped up their budgets based on the increasing oil prices. Since oil production is roughly 90% of most of these economies, namely Saudi Arabia, their revenues have fallen through the floor and creating serious short falls. Now cutting production would compound this issue and this is why you frequently see OPEC countries LIE and say they are cutting production while they aren't really cutting production.

On top of this Russia and Venezuela are producing as much oil as possible because they too are suffering from the severe drops in price and the colapse of their economies.

Add to this the current projections that Hedge fund assets via market declines and redemptions will be at 1/2 to 1/3 their 2007 levels you can see that there is also a lot less money for spec buying. Just look at Boone Pickens, he lost his ass in oil and is out of the game right now.

China has also stopped subsidizing oil prices causing continued decline in demand as the affordability in rural China disappears.

You also need to remember that very high oil prices are not what OPEC truly wants. $140 oil created more alternative engery interest then we have ever seen, we have already seen interest drop as oil prices drop. Low oil = less competition.

Lastly, just like real estate, the tech boom, and every other boom, those evolved seem to always go through the same phases. Denial, hope of quick recovery, confusion, depression, acceptance.

We are still in phase one and maybe starting on phase two.

Most of the O/G industry is looking for oil prices to stabilize in the $75-$80 range (the New York Strip price has crude at $70/barrel right now), with spikes into the low $100/barrel range. Nobody really think's that $140 oil is substainable for long time. At those prices we have seen rig rates double and the price of steel has gone through the roof. A lot of companies didn't adjust (increase) their budgets to reflect the "ultra" high oil prices, however they did budget based on a long term outlook.

Right now, most companies can buy reserves cheaper than they can explore for it. This doesn't do anything for the supply side of the equation.

The bottom line is the price is driven by supply vs demand (with a little speculation by the Wallstreet crowd on the side to drive prices a little higher/lower). Your argument is that there is less demand going forward, due to the recession. My argument is: the margin between adequate supply and demand and the fact that as a whole "new" sources of oil are more expensive to explore for and bring on line, therfore the price of oil will increase.

Time will tell - I will call you when I need to sell my double rifle and you can call me when your ass is freezing in the dark.

PS: I have met a lot of MBA's that were really intellegent, but they didn't know shit about the oil and gas business.

quote:

Time will tell - I will call you when I need to sell my double rifle and you can call me when your ass is freezing in the dark.

PS: I have met a lot of MBA's that were really intellegent, but they didn't know shit about the oil and gas business.

Funny! Those MBA fellers are sort of like Angus bulls - Show'em where to go, what to do and then get rid of'em when they've done their job!

As of late, seems that these overly educated, inexdperienced dumb-ass's have gotten themselves into a real mess - guess who gets to pay for it!!!

Gates has a degree in what??? Thought so!

God bless the thinking, common-sens'd man with a big set of cajones!!!

Bush, Cheney and their cronies at Halliburton wanted oil at $140, so it went to $140.

Obama and his cronies at the UAW want oil at $40, so it's going to $40.

That's just the way the world works.

When I had lunch with MHC-TX this week, he couldn't even cough up enough money to pay his part of the tab. Don't let him tell you times aren't tough in the oil patch.

ForrestB...
If obama's powers are that far reaching, then y'all will soon be turning in your rifles for scrap, eh?....

quote:

Obama and his cronies at the UAW want oil at $40, so it's going to $40.

Hmmmmm, seems we have a conspiracy theory mindset.

So, Bush & Obama can control the global oil markets on a whim? Well then, I guess we are the world's only Super-power afterall.

Whew, glad to know that, I was worried there for a while!!

Wake-up Man! The Dems want really high gas an oil prices to drive the "Green" agenda. Without high G&O there will be no "Green" initiative - Just ask Boone Pickens!

Wind, Solar, Ethanol, etc. are at the mercy of the Petro market fluctuations...Markets up, they flourish, markets down, they falter...Pick up the WSJ and learn about the Ethanol guys that are about to go under...(good riddance BTW)

It's playing out before your very eyes...

Now about that lunch tab....Sure there are going to be pains felt by the late comers, employees and residual service entities, but the OIL MEN, the real guys that have been there and done that will be just fine if they don't bet the farm on hairbrained schemes.

I'm looking forward to a leveling off at around 80-90 a bbl on the world mkts.

Then and only then will the real players on the world stage show-up and do their bidding.

Until then it will get ugly for us small guys!

A messgae to the Federal Gov't: Let Mr. Darwin have is way!!!

JW

All "top end" toys are going to take a hit in what will be the mother of all recessions.

There will be more bargains floating around than you can point a stick at.

The winners will be those with cash and low debt.

"Cheap" is just a relative term.

Think cheap, and then halve that price and you may be getting close, maybe.

quote:

The winners will be those with cash and low debt.

Reckon that was my point in the first place!

Well put, man!

JW out

I personally know two people who own double rifles; both own more than one; all of their rifles are either British or by Searcy. One is an airline pilot the other is an retired postal worker. All of the oil guys I know play golf.