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THE MYTH OF MURPHY'S LAW: Why "better to have it and not need it" fails the test.
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http://thinkinggunfighter.blog...o-have.html#comments

THE MYTH OF MURPHY'S LAW: Why "better to have it and not need it" fails the test.

Monday, January 18, 2010

We've all heard it, frequently from the guy who is carrying three guns, 90 rounds of ammo, two tactical folding knives, a cell phone, a couple of flashlights, a can of Mace, an expanding baton, a Kubotan, and so on. "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." A close companion is "Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it." While technically true I suggest that this is a poor way to plan, and thus becomes a myth that the thinking gunfighter needs to recognize.

Yes, anything that can go wrong will go wrong...given enough time, enough incidents, and so on. The actual problem is not will it go wrong, but how likely is it to go wrong at any particular time or place. The same is true of the concept that it is better to have it and not need it. Technically true, but "what is the actual likelihood of needing it and how much does having it impact your resources" is the better way to look at the issue.

Let's look at the issue from a few different viewpoints. A question I often see is "how much spare ammunition should I carry" or the similar "how many spare magazines should I carry?" At which time we begin hearing horror stories about being attacked by roving gangs of street thugs, or shooting someone and then having their friends come to their defense and having an on-going, running gunfight, or some such. Folks, it is possible, but not too darned likely. You are going to solve the problem with what you have in your gun, or the chances of you solving it at all are almost non-existent. Even in law enforcement, with a much more offensive role, reloads are needed in a very small percentage of gunfights.

Let's say that you have 30 rounds with you. Do you really think that that you are going to be able to accurately and effectively fire 30 rounds at the bad guys? Equally important, if you were attacked by a dozen people, (A)do you really think they would press an attack after you shot the first 3, or 4, or 5, etc. and (B) if they pressed the attack do you really think you would be able to shoot them all before they got you? Let's think about it.

"But wait!" comes the cry. "What about if I have a malfunction and need to clear it? That requires another magazine." First, if you are worried about your weapon malfunctioning, you need to get a different weapon. Yes, I know that guns do malfunction. I see it on the range quite regularly. Why do they malfunction? Bad ammo, cheap aftermarket equipment, modifications designed for the range instead of real life, and so on. A well made, quality firearm that has been properly checked out and is well maintained, using ammunition proven to feed in that gun will not suddenly decide to start malfunctioning on you. Yes, magazines are the weak link in most autoloaders, but not good magazines. If you are going to the range and practicing and checking out your equipment, you will know what works and what doesn't. If a magazine malfunctions don't carry it for serious social purposes. Use that magazine only for the range. And if it continues to cause problems, throw it over the berm and get rid of it!

Second, let's think about this for a moment (Thinking Gunfighters, remember!). A spare magazine only addresses problems that are related to the magazine. If one wants to worry about malfunctions one should look at all malfunctions. After all, isn't that the essence of Murphy's Law? Why worry about and provide a solution to one narrow malfunction problem. Let's solve ALL of our malfunction problems and just carry a spare gun. Realistically, what are the chances that your quality-made, well-maintained firearm will pick this particular time to have a malfunction? Given that, what are the chances that particular malfunction will be the result of a magazine that is defective? If we truly believe in the Murphy concept carrying a spare magazine is rather silly.

OK then, but still isn't it better to have it and not need it than the other way around? Again, sure, but let's think about it. We can't carry around everything, so we need to rationally consider what equipment will be useful to us and what won't. It is always going to be a compromise. Most of us don't carry around a big-game rifle to kill a tiger if it attacks us. Why not? Isn't it better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it? "Wait a minute" you say. "I don't need that rifle because the chances of me getting attacked by a tiger are so small that I don't need to worry about it!" And with that you have effectively done away with the myth of "better to have it and not need it." Having something does cost us. Whether it be money, time, physical effort, convenience, or any of our other resources, there is a cost. We should balance that cost against the need.

The reality is that we all make decisions about what we will need, and we all compromise what we carry based on what we think we will need. Based on perceived need one person might decide a 1911 with 8 rounds meets their needs. Another person might decide that a Glock 17 with a spare mag and 34 rounds meets their needs. But the decision on where to compromise on what to carry should be made based on a reasonable and realistic understanding of what is needed (risk assessment) accompanied by a cost/benefit analysis.

"Remember Murphy's Law" and "better to have it and not need it" are the rationalizations of people who are unable to decide what their needs actually are or people who are unwilling to accept the conflict between the world of fantasy and reality. No matter what the case we will all compromise on what we decide to do for our personal safety and security, even though we might be unwilling to acknowledge that fact. The important thing is if we determine that compromise based on thinking about it, or do we base it on the non-thinking mythology of Murphy's Law?
Posted by David Armstrong at 12:33 PM
Labels: firearms, tactics
7 comments:

Dandapani said...

I carry a spare 5 round full moon clip for my S/W 940 9mm snub. Think that's enough?
January 18, 2010 7:51 PM
Xavier said...

Spot on David!
January 19, 2010 12:10 AM
michael-j-doyle said...

I take your point. These days, I most commonly carry a .38 snub with a speedloader and a speedstrip, or a 9m with one spare mag. But, the reloads are more force-of-habit from my days on the job and/or security blanket than anything else. If I can't solve the immediate problem with what I've got in the gun, it probably wasn't an "immediate" sort of problem, was it? Frankly, I, too, doubt that a bad guy is going to give you time to clear a magazine failure, or dump and reload a snubby, if he wasn't impressed by your initial efforts.

Having said that, I'll also say that, if you're the one on the sharp end, I'm not going to criticize whatever security blanket you need to get you through the night. Just be honest with yourself and admit that it's a security blanket, and not likely to be decisive in and of itself...
February 15, 2010 10:47 PM
Jim said...

As a recovering "BTHIANNI" addict, your article is definably SPOT ON. Well done, glad I found this blog and looking forward to reading more.
March 19, 2010 12:41 AM
tom said...

Four time world champion in IPSC and Bianchi, he was the first winner of the IP game and former LEO and Marine before that, in combat, so you can probably guess the name, as he has a stance named after him...anyway, we were sitting around and he was having his evening glass of red and I was drinking a Meskin beer, jawing about guns and such...he said "If you need more than four or five rounds and you aren't in a beach assault or other pitched military battle, you need to be running not shooting, more likely than not..."

I couldn't say I disagreed with him. He was one of the pioneers of semi shotguns instead of 500s and 870s for mil/LEO use because "It's awkward to rack a slide when you're hiding under a car and such and semi-autos are pretty dang reliable, worst case, you have to rack the bolt because of a missfeed, so you aren't any worse off than with a slide gun."

He saw many an ele in his life and I can't think of anything he ever said that didn't make sense about shooting. he got frustrated when IDPA, which was formed to take all the gamesman crap out of IPSC, just turned into IPSC Jr. Engineer's mind, and a keen one at that.

Miss that old feller.
April 3, 2010 7:59 PM
Will said...

Carrying a spare mag might make more sense for a lefty, as the typical mag release button is pointed out at the world while in the holster, instead of protected by the body as for a right handed shooter. Over twenty-some years, I've found a mag released a couple times, while checking it in holster. Also, that TUNK!dink, tink,tink,sliiish sound as a full mag hits the ground right after drawing while running is heart-stopping.
I carry a speedloader when packing a snubbie.

One scenario that might require a reload is one of those mall shooter incidents. I realize most gun carriers state that they intend to beat feet, and the devil take the hindmost, if that happens. However, if you can't, or won't, having a little more ammo on hand might enable you to keep him bottled up until the calvary shows up. That's if you can't take him out on first encounter. Will it be a hazardous situation? Oh, yeah! Lots of variables there. But, personally, I expect I would be moving to the sound of guns in such a public venue.

I think the most common use of spare ammo is to fill up that gun after the smoke clears, for comfort.
April 4, 2010 4:08 AM
micko77 said...

This is why I don't feel "naked" with just an Airweight Bodyguard and a speed strip. Low profile town, low profile life, lower odds of being in need of more. Traveling? Grab one of the other J-frames for another pocket.
April 15, 2010 1:50 AM
 
Posts: 56912 | Location: GUNSHINE STATE | Registered: 05 October 2003Reply With Quote
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Good blog IMHO.
Peter.


Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong;
 
Posts: 10515 | Location: Jacksonville, Florida | Registered: 09 January 2004Reply With Quote
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I just carry a Para P-14 myself.

Fourteen rounds of 45 acp is about twice as much as I would get off in an unsocial situation.

Rich old
 
Posts: 23062 | Location: SW Idaho | Registered: 19 December 2005Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by Idaho Sharpshooter:
I just carry a Para P-14 myself.

Fourteen rounds of 45 acp is about twice as much as I would get off in an unsocial situation.

Rich old


You never know.
 
Posts: 56912 | Location: GUNSHINE STATE | Registered: 05 October 2003Reply With Quote
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Exactly why I carry a pistol and not a can of mace, some blunt weapon, a knife AND a pistol.

Some of you may feel that a knife is necessary. As far as I'm concerned, if I would draw a knife on an assailant, I would be justified in shooting him also. Maybe a LEO needs to be concerned about "continuum of force" but if I'm feeling that my life is in danger, I'm doing whatever I can to immediately end the threat- even if it means running away like a p*&&y.
 
Posts: 11198 | Location: Minnesota USA | Registered: 15 June 2007Reply With Quote
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Funny. I usually use BTHIANNI as an offhand response to questions concerning carrying a sidearm at all. Never considered it as an end all/be all justification for anything.
 
Posts: 348 | Location: North Carolina | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With Quote
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I think it is one of those things that applies sometimes and not others, across the board. i.e. I once heard a speaker that was one of those guys in blackhawk down, the guys that went in to get the first chopper IIRC, he was talking about how he carried around this 4.5 lb rocket all the time, through training, then in the field. he hated it and whenever he asked a superior about it they told him that about "better to have and not need..."

Sure enough, during that fire fight they were taking fire from behind a large stone wall, well, after that he never complained about carrying that rocket again. Smiler (I don't remember the overall point of the story, just know after that I thought about the reasoning more often).

I know other examples, all I'm saying is it is one of those things that maybe 90% plus of the time you won't need, and if you're comfortable with that then fine, but I can't fault anybody for wanting extra ammo. My grandfather's, paternal/maternal, both had carry permits for over 20 years, and never had to draw their guns. I'm sure though there are also a few people out there that have drawn and needed more rounds than were in it initially.

Red


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Posts: 4740 | Location: Fresno, CA | Registered: 21 March 2003Reply With Quote
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I have carried every thing from 5 shot 22 mini revolvers to full sized 44 mags. I have always tried to carry some extra ammo.

My normal carry for the last 10 years has been a clock 23 with two mags 26 rounds total.

Do I feel under gun with a 5 shot revolver and 5 extra rounds most of the time no.

If I ever became invovled in a gun fight would I like to have more most likely.

In the last 33 plus years of off duty carry I only once pulled my carry gun and that was to stop one drunk from stabbing another drunk. No shots fired so did I need the 18 rounds of 357 I had on me at the time.

Besides shooting a varmit now and again yotes porkupines ect. when I have done that with a revolver it was nice to be able to reload the spent round.

I stopped going to bars after that. I decided bars and cops don't mix well.

So the moral of the story is carry extra ammo if you want don't carry it if you don't want to.
 
Posts: 19736 | Location: wis | Registered: 21 April 2001Reply With Quote
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A close companion is "Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it".


And totally true. The article is pure BS I am afraid.

I know of certainly TWO incidents where people were killed. Yes killed. Murdered in fact. Because they didn't have it when they needed it.

One is many years ago in the Phillipines and was filmed. Off duty policeman. Fired off his six rounds at a knifeman. Either missed or didn't disable the guy. Knifeman chases the policeman who has a now empty gun and catches him and stabs him to death.

Other is in Northern Ireland. Two British off duty soldiers. Took a drive into the "wrong" part of town and were boxed in by taxis.

Either had not enough ammunition, or unwilling to open fire, after an initial shot or shots, but were surrounded by a mob, hauled out of their car, and then murdered.

Again all mostly filmed from above by a British Army surveillance helicopter.

So sorry. If you are in a country where you can legally carry a handgun for self-defence then you'd be a fool not to carry sufficient ammunition.
 
Posts: 6823 | Location: United Kingdom | Registered: 18 November 2007Reply With Quote
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Enfieldspares, don't you think it makes a difference whether the person is a civilian or a military or LE operating in a potentially hostile environment?
Peter.


Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong;
 
Posts: 10515 | Location: Jacksonville, Florida | Registered: 09 January 2004Reply With Quote
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More so if a civilian as at least you have no false hopes that "the 7th Cavalry" is going to arrive.

The Phillipines policeman was off-duty I believe. It was years ago well before the internet. But made many international papers as these things were headlines then before Bin Laden and all that.

The two Corporals were both, supposedly, off-duty and either through very unfortunate unfamiliarity or deliberate wilful stupidity ended up in a "Republican" area.

But no I'd actually say that in a military situation you would need less personally carried back-up. As, as a last resort as so many did, you can always pick up a fallen comrade's weapon.
 
Posts: 6823 | Location: United Kingdom | Registered: 18 November 2007Reply With Quote
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The Phillpines attack was the early 80's I watched the attack on tv even going as far as paracticing shooting running away from the target as the officer did there.

I do not think he would he would have had time to reload, a hi cap auto might have helped. As it was the the attacker ran him down and killed him stoping to reload would have ment the attackerp would have been on him sooner

He most likely would have been better off trying to get off 6 aimed shots then trying to shoot running away.

Most likely he had not had much paractice in shooting running maybe not much paractice at all.
 
Posts: 19736 | Location: wis | Registered: 21 April 2001Reply With Quote
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Get real, if you're shooting at a man with a big knife who's trying to kill you, if you miss or don't disable him with the first cylinder or magazine, you're dead unless you can outrun him.


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Posts: 17099 | Location: Texas USA | Registered: 07 May 2001Reply With Quote
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FYI:
In the last couple of years or most instructors I know have updated the 21 foot rule to 30+ feet.

That is:
A trained assailant with a knife drawn has the advantage over an officer/individual with a firearm holstered or concealed.

Also-- I was trained that my sidearm's primary
purpose was to enable me to fight my way to my rifle/shotgun; an extra mag/loader and a knife were part of that sidearm's equipment compliment.


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Gatogordo most of the time but one has to think of other ways to advoid him if available to give one self time. Like getting something in between you and him ect. Not saying it is going to work but having more the one option in mind is a good idea.

DunggaBoye If he is well trained you well not see the knife untill he is close enough to cut you.
 
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PDS,
That point too is made in the training.


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Posts: 4594 | Location: TX | Registered: 03 March 2009Reply With Quote
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The British Army actually one hundred years ago were quite advanced in their small arms training. Everybody knows of the mad Minute with the SMLE that stopped the German Army in 1914 but less well known is their pistol training.

Particularly the Advancing Man. This was a man sized target on rails! Advancing to the firer from twenty-five yards to ten yards. At which point a mechanism turned it edge on so that no further scoring shots could be made at it.

The commencement of fire was a whistle at which the target started to advance. The firer had from that distance to the turning edge on at ten yards to fire his six shots. Single or double action with pistol or revolver.

I used to shoot it as hundreds had, at Bisley, it certainly taught that if you held your nerve you could actually almost take you time and easily empty a full cylinder into the killing area on a man sized target rushing towards you.

And the turning edge on at ten yards re-inforced the idea that if you had not made effective hits on the target by then that it was too late and you were likely to be bayoneted!

The scorimg system allowed no relief for misfires, malfunctions or shots not got off in time.

In fact this no relief rule for misfires, malfunctions or shots not got off was called the "spear and assegai" rule!

I guess the classic case of that is America's Alvin York and his Colt 1911.

And nowadays? It isn't taught any longer! In fact it wasn't taught after World War Two and and certainly not in the British Army of the 1970s and 1980s.

Too much trouble!
 
Posts: 6823 | Location: United Kingdom | Registered: 18 November 2007Reply With Quote
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Not surprising to me enfieldspares. How much time is spent on bayonet practice these days? In fact I thought I read somewhere that standard NATO practice was to not even depend on the sidearm (handgun). If it came to that you were being overrun and it was time to bug out. I don't think it was too much trouble just the new reality.
Peter.


Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong;
 
Posts: 10515 | Location: Jacksonville, Florida | Registered: 09 January 2004Reply With Quote
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That article is probably the biggest piece of mental masturbation I have ever seen.

Carry what the circumstances dictate or allow, carry what you feel comfortable with, adjust your response based on your abilities, the equipment you have, and the circumstances.

Is a J frame smith with no spare ammo appropriate to carry for all situations? of course not

Is a Sig 220 with two spare mags appropriate to carry all situations? of course not

If you are a shooter who can only become proficient with 1 gun...Is an S&W 908 with one spare magazine a good choice for 90+% of the scenarios any of us may actually face as a civilian or quite frankly even a LEO? yes it is.

If you aren't comfortable with the potential outcome of the other 10% of the scenarios then carry something else.

But carrying it or not doesn't make it right or wrong.


Mike

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Never under estimate the internet community's ability to reply to your post with their personal rant about their tangentially related, single occurrence issue.




What I have learned on AR, since 2001:
1. The proper answer to: Where is the best place in town to get a steak dinner? is…You should go to Mel's Diner and get the fried chicken.
2. Big game animals can tell the difference between .015 of an inch in diameter, 15 grains of bullet weight, and 150 fps.
3. There is a difference in the performance of two identical projectiles launched at the same velocity if they came from different cartridges.
4. While a double rifle is the perfect DGR, every 375HH bolt gun needs to be modified to carry at least 5 down.
5. While a floor plate and detachable box magazine both use a mechanical latch, only the floor plate latch is reliable. Disregard the fact that every modern military rifle uses a detachable box magazine.
6. The Remington 700 is unreliable regardless of the fact it is the basis of the USMC M40 sniper rifle for 40+ years with no changes to the receiver or extractor and is the choice of more military and law enforcement sniper units than any other rifle.
7. PF actions are not suitable for a DGR and it is irrelevant that the M1, M14, M16, & AK47 which were designed for hunting men that can shoot back are all PF actions.
8. 95 deg F in Africa is different than 95 deg F in TX or CA and that is why you must worry about ammunition temperature in Africa (even though most safaris take place in winter) but not in TX or in CA.
9. The size of a ding in a gun's finish doesn't matter, what matters is whether it’s a safe ding or not.
10. 1 in a row is a trend, 2 in a row is statistically significant, and 3 in a row is an irrefutable fact.
11. Never buy a WSM or RCM cartridge for a safari rifle or your go to rifle in the USA because if they lose your ammo you can't find replacement ammo but don't worry 280 Rem, 338-06, 35 Whelen, and all Weatherby cartridges abound in Africa and back country stores.
12. A well hit animal can run 75 yds. in the open and suddenly drop with no initial blood trail, but the one I shot from 200 yds. away that ran 10 yds. and disappeared into a thicket and was not found was lost because the bullet penciled thru. I am 100% certain of this even though I have no physical evidence.
13. A 300 Win Mag is a 500 yard elk cartridge but a 308 Win is not a 300 yard elk cartridge even though the same bullet is travelling at the same velocity at those respective distances.
 
Posts: 10169 | Location: Loving retirement in Boise, ID | Registered: 16 December 2003Reply With Quote
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quote:
Originally posted by DuggaBoye:
FYI:
In the last couple of years or most instructors I know have updated the 21 foot rule to 30+ feet.

That is:
A trained assailant with a knife drawn has the advantage over an officer/individual with a firearm holstered or concealed.

Also-- I was trained that my sidearm's primary
purpose was to enable me to fight my way to my rifle/shotgun; an extra mag/loader and a knife were part of that sidearm's equipment compliment.


Yeah, a knife can induce a lot more trauma in a very short time frame than can a .38 snubbie or even a .45. If some guy is on you slicing away with a six inch blade taking off a finger here or an ear or nose there, you're not gonna be shooting anything. You're gonna be dying. Knives work.
 
Posts: 11729 | Location: Florida | Registered: 25 October 2006Reply With Quote
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jetdrvr in the right place and right time knifes can make very good weapons.

Over all fiearms are better.
 
Posts: 19736 | Location: wis | Registered: 21 April 2001Reply With Quote
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Yeah, true, but at elevator distances, I'd rather have a knife. The first time your opponent should know you have a knife is when he see the handle sticking out of his rib cage.
 
Posts: 11729 | Location: Florida | Registered: 25 October 2006Reply With Quote
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Just recently turned 63. NEVER have been in a gun fight except in a military combat zone.

There were a couple times I was grateful I had a sidearm, or a shotgun, rifle. But I was "afield" in an isolated area where everyone is armed.

I don't carry to go to town -- This town is pretty tame. I carry on the road, variously, but it's rarely the AK with the drum mag.

Locally we carry for cougar and bear, not two legged skunks.

I read a thread on "Glock Talk" about some urban mall ninja who wanted to know if it was OK to take his Glock into the shower.

Jeez! Roll Eyes
 
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