Here is a short assessment of yesterdays attack in Ankara, Turkey covered by Global Rescue's intelligence analysts:

Background

At approximately 18:40 local time on 13 March 2016, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonated in Güvenpark, a major transit hub in the Kizilay district of Ankara, the capital of Turkey. According to local sources, a BMW car laden with explosives sped towards a busy bus stop before the driver detonated the VBIED, creating a large fireball that riddled the area with shrapnel and debris. At least 37 people were killed and 120 wounded in the attack. According to local reports, the Turkish government imposed media restrictions immediately following the attack, including banning access to social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook, in an effort to block the spread of images from the scene of the attack. No group or individuals immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.

The attack came two days after the US Embassy in Ankara issued a warning about a “potential terrorist plot against Turkish government buildings and housing located in the Bahcelievler area of Ankara” and advised US citizens to avoid the area. The Bahcelievler area of Ankara is located immediately west of where the attack occurred in the Kizilay district. This attack also comes less than a month after another VBIED attack in Ankara targeted military personnel on 17 February, killing at least 29 people and wounding 60 others. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), a breakaway faction of the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK)—a group considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and the United States—claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it had been conducted in response to ongoing military operations in the Kurdish-majority southeastern regions. The group also threatened further attacks.

While an investigation into this latest attack is ongoing, Turkish authorities believe that Kurdish militants are behind the attack. Authorities have stated that one of the two suspected bombers was a woman linked to the PKK. Turkish warplanes also carried out airstrikes against Kurdish militant locations in northern Iraq on 14 March in apparent retaliation for the attack.

In addition to these two latest VBIED attacks in Ankara, the capital has witnessed increased terrorist activity over the past few months. On 30 December 2015, Turkish authorities announced they detained two suspects believed to be planning a suicide attack during New Year’s Eve celebrations in central Ankara. On 10 October 2015, twin suicide bombings during a demonstration near the city’s central train station killed nearly 100 people and injured 245 others. The 10 October attack is considered the deadliest terror attack in modern Turkish history.

Assessment

This latest attack, the third in Ankara in the past five months, represents another example of the continual destabilization of the security situation in Turkey, including in its major cities. There have been a number of terrorist attacks in the country in the past 12 months, including in Istanbul, that have been attributed to Kurdish militants, the Islamic State (IS), and the far-left Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C), a Marxist militant group. If the PKK or another Kurdish militant group claims responsibility for this latest attack, or the Turkish government proves such links, it would represent a significant and worrisome change in tactics on behalf of the PKK. The PKK has historically targeted military, police, and government targets in Turkey rather than the general population. If this attack is linked to the PKK, it would be the first time they have specifically targeted civilians in a mass casualty-style attack, and only the second time they have used suicide VBIED tactics since the latest escalation of violence since August 2015.

The attack only further adds to the recent heightened anxiety in the country over the threat of terrorism. While Turkey's southeast region has historically been the most restive area of the country, the recent trend of attacks in Istanbul and Ankara have sought to demonstrate the Turkish government’s inability to provide security to citizens and tourists. According to Turkish government figures, tourism revenues in the country dropped 14.3 percent in the final quarter of 2015, and 8.3 percent over the whole year. Multiple cruise lines have canceled trips to Turkey due to security concerns, and tour operators have reported heavy drops in future bookings. In February 2015, the Turkish government announced plans to support the tourism industry through grants and the restructuring of its debt.
Clients in Turkey are advised to:

• Avoid large crowds and demonstrations, which may be seen as ideal targets for terrorist groups.

• Avoid using public transportation, which have also been seen as prime targets.

• Maintain a low profile and avoid large gatherings of people.

• Avoid areas around government buildings, to include local police and military buildings.

• Maintain situational awareness at all times. Report suspicious behavior, activities, or objects to the authorities.

• Expect an increased presence of security forces in Ankara, Istanbul, and other cities around the country. These increased security measures may result in travel disruptions.

• Closely monitor US Embassy messages and alerts, as well as local media reports, on possible threats and upcoming demonstrations.

Please be sure to let us know if you have any further questions or we can provide further information.

I was in Istanbul in December and all was fine. I am not informed on terrorist or how they think, but I suspect this is done by someone or some entity that is coming into Turkey as a part of the so-called Syrian refugees.

I would go there again.

I was there in October and stood on the same ground as 11 Germans who were killed 10 days later in a bombing. I won't be going back.

Ski+3