https://www.npr.org/2023/07/17...sia-grain-deal-putin

Grain deal expires w no extension. There is hope a deal can be re-reached.

This I fear has the most likely hood to export hunger and economic harm assuming the l conflict remains binary between Ukraine and Russia.

Reading the above I simply do not see a negotiated peace that sees Russia’s annexation of Crimea not recognized by Ukraine and the West.

Russia has always seen the Black Sea as a warm water port strategically valuable since the time of the Czars. Ukraine does not have the ability to drive Russia out of Ukraine.