Projections for quarterly government borrowings are going up. At a time when Trump's club-fisted economic policies have increased treasury yields. For the MAGAts that are unable to connect a two dot puzzle, more borrowing at higher yields means the cost to service the national debt rises. Just more winning . . . the most winning ever . . . more winning than anyone thought possible.


Treasury to Raise Forecast for Government Borrowing, Strategists Predict
Story by Karishma Vanjani
MARKETS TODAY

The Treasury Department will release new projections for its quarterly borrowing on Monday, the next risk to watch for a bond market that is consistently worried about debt issuance.

The Treasury will disclose the amount it expects to borrow for the three months from April through June at 3 p.m. Eastern. Fresh estimates will also be released for July to September, helping investors to understand the strength of the government’s appetite for cash as yields on longer-term bonds show no signs of retreating below 4%.

“[T]he borrowing projections will be factored into the market’s outlook for debt issuance which could have implications for longer-dated Treasury yields,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

The numbers will precede a more important release on Wednesday that tells the market how this debt will be divided between short- and longer-dated securities. That breakdown has even more significant implications for the yield on 10-year notes, which determine the cost of mortgages and other debt for both consumers and businesses.

The 10-year yield ended at 4.267% on Friday, declining 0.059 percentage point in the week. Lower yields mean prices are rising for existing bonds, partly reversing a slide in price that came after President Donald Trump jolted the bond market with plans for widespread tariffs on April 2.

Yields remain far from the low of 3.622% hit in September. With the exception of April 4, when they slipped to 3.99%, they have remained above 4% all of this year. Concerns keeping bond prices down and pushing yields higher include uncertainty about tariffs, erratic government policies, and how long the U.S. can sustain a national debt of $36 trillion, and rising.

Monday’s announcement will be an update on the Treasury’s initial estimate of $123 billion in net marketable borrowing for the current quarter, which it shared in February. Wall Street strategists, almost across the board, expect the Treasury to raise the number.

Deutsche Bank strategist Steven Zeng expects $507 billion in new borrowing for the current quarter, while Société Générale’s Adam Kurpiel is predicting $339 billion. Jay Barry, J.P. Morgan’s head of global rates strategy, forecasts $255 billion, but said there is a risk his prediction might be on the conservative end.

The problem is that the U.S. government has drawn down on the cash that was available in the Treasury’s account. The closing balance in the Treasury General Account was $406 billion at the end of March, while the February forecast had projected a balance of $850 billion, assuming Congress suspended or increased a legal limit on the size of the national debt.

The Treasury borrows more money than expected if it kicks off a quarter with less cash on hand than planned. Other factors affecting net borrowing include projected government revenue and spending needs

For the July to September quarter, Zeng expects $480 billion in borrowing. Kurpiel is at $585 billion, while Barry is at $816 billion.

Tune in Monday, and on Wednesday.

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
Projections for quarterly government borrowings are going up. At a time when Trump's club-fisted economic policies have increased treasury yields. For the MAGAts that are unable to connect a two dot puzzle, more borrowing at higher yields means the cost to service the national debt rises. Just more winning . . . the most winning ever . . . more winning than anyone thought possible.

Mr. Jines...you have your 'Trump speak' down pat I see.

Wasn't there going to be a DOGE savings check, and reduced borrowing this term?

you guys are so naive ... all is working as planned or not lol ...

Treasury raised its projection of borrowing for the period April through June from $123 billion to $514 billion . . . that's just an increase of slightly over 300%. So much winning . . . believe me. If you had any doubts regarding the basic ability of MAGAts to digest information and their innate intelligence . . . I saw a CBS poll that showed that 70% of "MAGA Reps" believed the economy was getting better. I guess lower stock market performance, more federal borrowing, higher bond yields, huge tax increases through tariffs, increased chances of a recession, etc. is the new definition of "better". Just how stupid are these people? No need to answer, it was a rhetorical question.

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
Treasury raised its projection of borrowing for the period April through June from $123 billion to $514 billion . . . that's just an increase of slightly over 300%. So much winning . . . believe me. If you had any doubts regarding the basic ability of MAGAts to digest information and their innate intelligence . . . I saw a CBS poll that showed that 70% of "MAGA Reps" believed the economy was getting better. I guess lower stock market performance, more federal borrowing, higher bond yields, huge tax increases through tariffs, increased chances of a recession, etc. is the new definition of "better". Just how stupid are these people? No need to answer, it was a rhetorical question.

we have a lot of them here as well saying that all is going as planned so it is not only cbs lol ...

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
Treasury raised its projection of borrowing for the period April through June from $123 billion to $514 billion . . . that's just an increase of slightly over 300%. So much winning . . . believe me. If you had any doubts regarding the basic ability of MAGAts to digest information and their innate intelligence . . . I saw a CBS poll that showed that 70% of "MAGA Reps" believed the economy was getting better. I guess lower stock market performance, more federal borrowing, higher bond yields, huge tax increases through tariffs, increased chances of a recession, etc. is the new definition of "better". Just how stupid are these people? No need to answer, it was a rhetorical question.

Just look at all the money Trump amd DOGE are saving us. Does someone have the receipts?