The stock market has a rightful aversion to new taxes. The GOP did too at one time. I guess when Trump talked about making the economy great again, he wasn't referring to folks with 401Ks. Not to mention the market's desire for stability and predictability with a President who is neither.

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
The stock market has a rightful aversion to new taxes. The GOP did too at one time. I guess when Trump talked about making the economy great again, he wasn't referring to folks with 401Ks. Not to mention the market's desire for stability and predictability with a President who is neither.

tariffs will hurt us for sure but im pretty the americans will feel it as well and not for the best.

I am just thankful that realistically on any given day Trump is one McFish and large fry from a coronary.

some last more than others ...

. . . don't be a party pooper.

If I'm not mistaken this is the largest single tax increase on the American People ever.

What is funny is the fame right on here complains about funding any new social program.

Yet, when a GOP president hits every American w this high tax increase (the admit it is a tax on US consumers), it is all good.

The problem w the McFish Plan is Vance becomes president.

The stock market goes up and down all the time. Don't invest if you can't handle it.

quote:

Originally posted by Aspen Hill Adventures:
The stock market goes up and down all the time. Don't invest if you can't handle it.

do not buy if you cannot afford. some will get 25% very soon among other retaliation coming from your northern neighbour ...

quote:

Originally posted by medved:

quote:

Originally posted by Aspen Hill Adventures:
The stock market goes up and down all the time. Don't invest if you can't handle it.

do not buy if you cannot afford. some will get 25% very soon among other retaliation coming from your northern neighbour ...

Meh, whatever. Isn't justine planning to tariff china?

quote:

Originally posted by Aspen Hill Adventures:

quote:

Originally posted by medved:

quote:

Originally posted by Aspen Hill Adventures:
The stock market goes up and down all the time. Don't invest if you can't handle it.

do not buy if you cannot afford. some will get 25% very soon among other retaliation coming from your northern neighbour ...

Meh, whatever. Isn't justine planning to tariff china?

we are tariffing you back ... canada the nicest are doing back to you trumpist ...

quote:

Originally posted by Aspen Hill Adventures:
The stock market goes up and down all the time.

. . . the typical profundity you expect from Comrade Krasna.

"If the Dow drops 1,000 points in 2 days, the President should be impeached immediately."
Donald J. Trump
November 6, 2012

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
"If the Dow drops 1,000 points in 2 days, the President should be impeached immediately."
Donald J. Trump
November 6, 2012

so not to worry it was only 650 points today ...

An idiot in charge of America.

He is bending over backwards for Putin and NitanHitler.

Now the rest of the world is quing to do the same!

THE MAGA ARSEHOLE Is thinking from Musk's dick!

I did not make that one up.

Saw it this morning!

quote:

Originally posted by medved:

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
"If the Dow drops 1,000 points in 2 days, the President should be impeached immediately."
Donald J. Trump
November 6, 2012

so not to worry it was only 650 points today ...

And 500 yesterday

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
I am just thankful that realistically on any given day Trump is one McFish and large fry from a coronary.

Wow!!!

quote:

The problem w the McFish Plan is Vance becomes president.

He is already the 48th — just waiting to take office.

quote:

Originally posted by medved:

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
"If the Dow drops 1,000 points in 2 days, the President should be impeached immediately."
Donald J. Trump
November 6, 2012

so not to worry it was only 650 points today ...

Buying opportunity.

No doubt about it Lane, you are correct. The economy is being torn down and reorganized in a way that the wealthy will come out in outstanding shape while the working class and the poor have an even harder time making ends meet.

Do you think this will lead to a recession or a depression? Certainly a huge contraction in economic growth.

quote:

Do you think this will lead to a recession or a depression? Certainly a huge contraction in economic growth

No

I think the amount of economic damage that Trump has done and will keep doing will be shocking.

Have you seen the estimates on what his policies are going to do to new cars?

I had several capital investments I had planned to make including a new to me truck, all on hold now. I am only buying inventory to flip at the moment, everything else will wait until the chaos abates, likely after Trump's term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news...rucks-173722168.html

What a god damn mess, and uncalled for.

My companies…

…we are just going to enjoy the ride. We are going to post a growth 1st quarter better than expected. That means investors (people with money who own high-end horses) ain’t worried.

Investors are most certainly worried....see the stock market indexes world wide.

This is a mess, and one that did not have to happen.

I'm in position to ride this out and reap the benefits of my planning, many others are not, those are the folks that this going to hit hard.

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Bertram:
Investors are most certainly worried....see the stock market indexes world wide.

This is a mess, and one that did not have to happen.

I'm in position to ride this out and reap the benefits of my planning, many others are not, those are the folks that this going to hit hard.

They may be repositioning…but not worried. What happens with high-end horses is about as good of a predictor of investor feelings as I have seen. We could feel 2009 coming when all the experts were saying all was fine. Spending on high-end horses always dips pre financial crisis. It is increasing at the moment.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Originally posted by Steve Bertram:
Investors are most certainly worried....see the stock market indexes world wide.

This is a mess, and one that did not have to happen.

I'm in position to ride this out and reap the benefits of my planning, many others are not, those are the folks that this going to hit hard.

They may be repositioning…but not worried. What happens with high-end horses is about as good of a predictor of investor feelings as I have seen. We could feel 2009 coming when all the experts were saying all was fine. Spending on high-end horses always dips pre financial crisis. It is increasing at the moment.

I think tarot cards are probably more accurate than the horse business in predicting economic conditions

I don't claim to have any knowledge of the horse market but I will say that the in crease in has been obvious

Look at the conservative Canadians on here calling the US no longer friends while the Kremlin announces US and Russian strategic alliance.

Look, these tariffs are going to cost farmers, auto workers, the auto sub-contractor energy, home/general contractors, and consumers thereof.

It has already hurt the ability for ammunition companies to procure raw materials like bismuth and tungsten. They have raised prices.

Dr. Easter is lying to us all.

The works of 6 figure horses and a few 7 figure horses have nothing to do w someone working in a factory making small, molded parts for the auto industry.

It certainly does not have anything to do w your 401k.

Again, Trump won because despite inflation bring roughly 3 percent, US citizens believed their buying power which equates quality of life was under attack. Well, a new truck w 42 percent products from Mexico and Canada is going to cost more. Building materials are going to cost more. Food is going to cost more.

One thing I will say: There is the horse business and then there is the high-end horse business. The 2 have zero in common.

And, you did make one accurate statement.

quote:

I don't claim to have any knowledge

Credit where credit due!

If you follow spending in the high-end horse market…a dip will always precede an economic downturn. Tip of the day.

What is real funny is Trump and his tariff brain trust even tell us consumer good prices are going up.

It is only you who tell us, there will be no economic hardship to US consumers.

Let us not forget that these tariffs are legally dubious.

That single digit majority in the House is gone.

On Trump’s first 3 months, Congress has passed price of legislation. Yet, the activity of Trinlnas s president is high. They is not good regardless of which party sets in the chair. Yet, one would have to ne s conservative to see the problem.

Fuel prices have declined in my area. Last time I went on a supply run it was $2.63/gal. The previous trip it was $2.77/gal. If this continues, lower fuel prices will make a difference overall.

Fertilizer is $30 less per ton this year as well. Not a lot but it helps.

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:

Dr. Easter is lying to us all.

Has been for quite some time. Don't look for it to stop any time soon either.

quote:

Originally posted by ledvm:

quote:

Do you think this will lead to a recession or a depression? Certainly a huge contraction in economic growth

No

. . . the new picture of making America great again . . .

. . . making America great again one crisis at a time . . .

The Two-Headed Monster Stalking the Economy Has a Name: Stagflation
Story by Nick Timiraos
The Wall Street Journal

Stagflation has entered the chat.

President Trump’s decision to dramatically raise tariffs on imports threatens the U.S. with an uncomfortable combination of weaker or even stagnant growth and higher prices—sometimes called “stagflation.”

The U.S. has imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and another 10% hike on China following last month’s 10% increase. They “will be wildly disruptive to business investment plans,” said Ray Farris, chief economist at Prudential PLC. “They will be inflationary, so they will be a shock to real household income just as household income growth is slowing because of slower employment and wage gains,” he said.

It is still unclear how long Trump intends to keep the tariffs in place. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested Tuesday afternoon on Fox Business that a rollback could be in the works.

Some economists said if they stay, then the odds of recession will meaningfully rise.

“This thing could get off the rails pretty quickly,” said Tim Mahedy, chief economist at Access/Macro. “This is not at the level of the 1970s or 1980s. But it does have a whiff of stagflation, or a ministagcession.”

China and Mexico are the top two sources of consumer electronics sold at the retailer Best Buy, Chief Executive Corie Barry told analysts Tuesday. “We expect our vendors across our entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers highly likely,” Barry said. The company’s shares plummeted 13% in the midst of a general stock-market retreat.

Brothers International Food Holdings, based in Rochester, N.Y., imports mangoes and avocados from Mexico and sells fruit juices, purées and frozen-food concentrates to food and beverage manufacturers. New tariffs are forcing the 95-person company to pass on price increases to its customers or accept lower profit margins.

Many of the company’s customers accelerated shipments in January in anticipation of tariffs. “We are bracing for softer sales in the coming months,” said Chief Operating Officer Jack Whittier.

Trump and his advisers have said some short-term pain might be warranted to achieve the administration’s long-term ambitions of remaking the U.S. economy. They have also said their steps to boost energy production could offset higher goods prices.

Nonetheless, tariffs are a particularly difficult economic threat for the Federal Reserve to address. Its mandate is to keep inflation low and stable while maintaining a healthy labor market. Tariffs represent a “supply shock” that both raises inflation, which calls for higher interest rates, and hurts employment, which calls for lower rates. The Fed would have to choose which threat to emphasize.

Fed officials thought they might have engineered a soft landing over the past 18 months. A few are publicly warning of a stagflationary scenario.

“A deterioration of the labor market alongside higher inflation could present difficult choices,” said St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem at an economics conference in Washington on Monday.

New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday at an event hosted by Bloomberg that he expected tariffs would lead to higher inflation this year than he had anticipated. Tariffs on consumer goods, he said, “filter into prices that consumers pay. That happens relatively soon.” Tariffs on intermediate goods, meanwhile, take longer to show up but last longer, he said.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been falling steadily from its 2022 peak of 5.6%, to 2.6% in January. That is still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Researchers at the Boston Fed estimate that lifting tariffs on Canada and Mexico by 25% and on China by 10% could add 0.5 to 0.8 percentage point to core PCE inflation depending on the response of U.S. importers. They don’t account for consumers’ substituting cheaper domestic goods, retaliation or fluctuations in exchange rates.

“We won’t get as much of an inflationary bump if the economy contracts, but we also probably won’t get much cooling either. That’s going to hamstring the Fed,” said Mahedy, who previously worked at the San Francisco Fed.

Because monetary policy is also often guided by backward-looking data, worries about inflation in a slowing economy means “the stars are aligned for a late monetary policy response,” said Mahedy. By contrast, the Fed acted to pre-empt weakness during the 2019 trade war, which it had the luxury of doing because inflation was low.

Fed officials consider expectations a key driver of future inflation, and some measures have hinted at trouble. A survey by the University of Michigan, and Treasury inflation-protected securities, suggest that consumers and investors alike anticipate somewhat higher inflation over the next several years.

“It’s not a good sign for the central bank, and I would think it would be of some concern for the administration,” said Dean Maki, chief economist at the hedge fund Point72 Asset Management.

High inflation or rising long-term inflation expectations would make it harder for officials to justify lower rates. “The stakes are potentially higher than they would be if inflation were at or below target, and if consumers and businesses had not recently experienced high inflation,” said Musalem.

He pointed to the 1970s, the last time the U.S. had stagflation. The Fed oscillated between hiking rates to combat inflation and then lowering them to combat high unemployment, a “stop-go-stop” policy that “is widely viewed as a failure because neither inflation nor unemployment was satisfactorily contained,” said Musalem.

To be sure, commentators repeatedly warned of stagflation over the past four years, and it never materialized. The idiosyncratic nature of the pandemic inflation—driven by supply-chain disruptions and a burst of government spending—allowed the Fed to raise interest rates rapidly to bring down inflation without a downturn.

When the pandemic inflation first hit in 2021, Fed officials judged that they shouldn’t raise rates much because cost pressures from short-term supply shocks would be transitory (i.e., go away on their own).

A similar argument is being made now about tariffs because, in theory, they too are a transitory supply shock, noted Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. “As soon as I include the word ‘transitory,’ then you should get your dander up precisely because that logic didn’t prove true.”

Goolsbee said that the lessons of Covid would be particularly relevant, “if you get policy shocks that start approaching the magnitude of the things that we saw in Covid.”

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:

quote:

Originally posted by LHeym500:

Dr. Easter is lying to us all.

Has been for quite some time. Don't look for it to stop any time soon either.

No lies here.

I made it through the 2009-11 recession and came out better on the other side by using skills and knowledge to read what was happening and adapt.

If you didn't...you should listen.

. . . you're my hero . . . not.

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
. . . you're my hero . . . not.

100%

If you followed me, you wouldn't be a neoliberal (exconservative-lite) and would care more about the Texas southern border.

Clueless. As I said, I don’t look for you stop lying anytime soon. I declared ages ago that borders are essential for any country, that immigration reform was needed and that the first step was to secure the border. So long as whatever cute little label you elect to tag me with is not your label, I’m good.

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:

quote:

Originally posted by medved:

quote:

Originally posted by wymple:
"If the Dow drops 1,000 points in 2 days, the President should be impeached immediately."
Donald J. Trump
November 6, 2012

so not to worry it was only 650 points today ...

And 500 yesterday

did he was impeached?

quote:

Originally posted by MJines:
Clueless. As I said, I don’t look for you stop lying anytime soon. I declared ages ago that borders are essential for any country, that immigration reform was needed and that the first step was to secure the border. So long as whatever cute little label you elect to tag me with is not your label, I’m good.

Why is immigration reform needed? Another liberal talking point. Journey complete.

. . . stock market loving up on the daily dose of Trump chaos. Wonder if the WSJ is regretting their endorsement yet? Making America Great Again one crisis at a time.