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Uber - shared transport, driverless cars Tesla - electric alternative energy transport Between uber (and it's competitors) and Tesla (and every major auto manufacture making electric vechiles) I am betting we will see a massive change in transport, energy, city design/real estate in the next 20-30 years. I am pretty sure in 10 years when I replace my f-150 there will be electric or hyprid pickups. Mike | ||
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This boy will still be driving a Dodge 2500 4-door with a Cummins diesel. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Or natural gas! Peter. Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong; | |||
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The electric vehicle has killed any hopes of natural gas. Electric vehicles are just much easier and more efficient. Gas may get burned to generate electricity but it is not going to power consumer trucks and cars. Now Uber and natural gas vehicles is a whole different story. Uber (and its competitors) in asia are creating a whole class of natural gas powered vehicles. The natural gas vehicle is already up and running in asia. Mike | |||
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There is supposed to be a Workhorse W15 for sale sometime next year for fleet buyers, a 4WD gas/electric hybrid. They are somehow hooked up with Navistar and already build hybrid delivery trucks. I plan to keep my Dodge/Cummins another twenty years, but it looks interesting. TomP Our country, right or wrong. When right, to be kept right, when wrong to be put right. Carl Schurz (1829 - 1906) | |||
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Sorry Mike, I am going to have to disagree with you! The fact is that electric motors alone cannot deliver the power necessary to propel large heavy trucks carrying serious loads. That is why you need natural gas fuel. I see no need for natural gas for passenger vehicles. Peter. Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong; | |||
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Why would you want to use energy like natural gas to make energy. Sure wind, water, & solar are there for the taking...but when you burn energy like natural gas to make electricity...inefficient use. Almost any gasoline engine can be modified to burn natural gas. Efficiency equals natural gas cars. The electric car market is driven (no pun intended  ) by consumers who don't think through or understand chemistry, physics, and industry. They see a car free of emissions from their doing and think electricity comes out of thin air.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Peter I will wait to see the Telsa semi truck. I have spent a fair bit of time on natural gas vehicles. Looks at WPRT - tells you everything about the business model. Natural gas works great for trucks that have to come back to a fixed point everyday. Garbage trucks, buses ect. Natural gas has issues with generating torque power. I think the tesla truck will be one where the whole battery pack can be swapped out in a few minutes. Self drive and electric will change trucking. Mike | |||
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Lane A high end car like a tesla is a pure discretionary product. Its consumers often buy for what they want in a car - innovation, low emission ect. The tesla vehicle blows everything else out of the water - it is a amazing product. The energy equation is tough with electric cause consumers can do other actions to reduce their consumption profile. Replace bulvs with led, better appliances, better insulation, solar panels All this reduces energy demand and transfers energy to transport without increasing aggregate energy generation. I think Tesla solar tiles will be a homerun. In 8 years when I replace my roof - I will be going full solar. I have excellent roof (location, size) for solar. Tesla model S gives 120 miles equivalent per gallon, costs 1/4 to power relative to gas, outperforms gas - it is the future. All automakers now acknowledge electric is the future and a building for it. I think oil is dead long term. We have already entered the decline of the oil age. Look at oil futures - they are pricing in the decline. Sucks to be saudi arabia but great to be US, europe, india, china and global environment. Massive changes in transport and energy are just starting. NExt 20-30 years will be fun. Mike | |||
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Natural gas works great for trucks that have to come back to a fixed point everyday. Garbage trucks, buses ect. Natural gas has issues with generating torque power. Natural gas is still a fossil fuel, something the proponents would have us forget. Relatively cheap now, Increasing demand, especially for those "clean" power plants is going to raise the price, not to mention Natural gas is the raw material for producing most of the plastics we use. Didn't take long for demand to make propane , a natural gas derivative, uneconomical for vehicles. Natural gas is also what keeps us Canadians from freezing up solid and handing the country back to the Natives. Sorry, no free lunch here. Grizz Indeed, no human being has yet lived under conditions which, considering the prevailing climates of the past, can be regarded as normal. John E Pfeiffer, The Emergence of Man Those who can't skin, can hold a leg. Abraham Lincoln Only one war at a time. Abe Again. | |||
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Who is talking about burning natural gas to make electricity??? "by consumers who don't think through or understand chemistry, physics, and industry". Well lane, I have a Joint Honors degree in Physics and Chemistry. Sorry, no degree in "industry". The electric/hybrid vehicle is here to stay, despite what you naysayers, global warming and sea level rise deniers, evolution disbelievers, there were dinosaurs in Noah's ark etc. etc. have to say. When the electricity generating industry loses their clout (after ol' Donald goes away) and we individuals generate electricity from solar, we can just use the grid as a backup system. Tesla, who I know all you "true believers" hate, has already demonstrated, and is selling, battery storage for the home, as well as "solar tiles". When the generation industry stops fighting that (see, even though I have no degree I know a little about "industry") we will see what happens! Sorry, the world in 10 years will be a lot different than the one you see now. Peter. Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright, that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless and do no wrong; | |||
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Peter, Natural is used to generate electricity. Natural gas-fired electricity generation in the United States is expected to reach a record level in 2016 More efficient to just burn in the car to begin with. Politely, I disagree that the electric vehicle will stand the test of time. Mike, Oil futures are like Texas Weather...just wait a min...they will change. Electricity is ideal home energy for a multitude of reasons...but it does not make logical sense for transportation. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Some simple facts to book end the discussion 5.8 units of natural gas equivalent to barrel of oil $3.50 Mbtu gas implies getting energy of a barrel of oil for $20 Oil trades at $45-$50 so gas is 40 percent of oil - gas is stranded Us has 100 plus years of gas - I could make a strong case 200-300 years of gas Tesla model s is around 120 miles per gallon in energy equivalent terms. If the power is generated from gas - tesla could be 8-10 more fuel efficient than a Honda Accord. Tesla in my view is the best auto on the road - it is the standard to which other cars will be built. I dont know of tesla dominates autos but I am pretty sure electric cars will - this view is shared by all the global autos firms. The right way to look at tesla is as an ecosystem - complete energy and transport evo system. Already us energy demand is growing at much less than economy is growing - we are becoming more energy efficient as a society - so is the rest of the world. Mike | |||
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The problem lane is natural gas in cars need a massive infrastructure in storage transport gas stations and human staff to operate gas station It's easier in Asia cause the gas pumps are human operated and cost of labor is low. Uber drivers wait for 1 hr to get their tanks filled and thee is a person to fill them.  Mike | |||
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I concur there may 200+ years of natural gas...maybe lots more. Engines have made (not produced) much more energy efficient than Honda Accord. Natural gas is a good fuel for cars and they can be converted quickly using present design. Natural gas vehicles can do work. The electric car may serve a niche for near personal transportation...for a while. But it will never move loads, negotiate rugged terrain, do work, etc etc. I am betting against...respectfully. History is littered with past innovations in vehicles that went bust. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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I will take the other side of the electric car trade. Tesla may or may not grow into its market cap - bigger than gm or ford. But the electric car will dominate auto transport in the future. I was not a Tesla fan - I shorted the stock profitably (lucky). Then I test drove one and it blew me away. Side note - i own a 2010 Honda Accord 2010 v6, a 2014 Cadillac CTS 4 cylinder turbo and a 2016 f-150 3.5 ecoboost. The most fuel efficient car for city driving - stop and go and non highway driving is the f-150 - 19-20 miles per gallon. I would hate to be Saudi Arabia Mike | |||
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Our business keeps a house in the Metroplex and a small car there...cause we all drive large trucks. I researched buying a Tesla to keep there. I agree they are a well made product and well suited to short-trip travel in an urban environment. To this scientific mind constantly trying to push the agenda forward in equine orthopedics, a discipline grounded in an equal mix of practicality and science...the concept does not make sense to me. Perhaps you will prove me wrong and it will give us something to argue about at the DSC over a glass of Makers. I'll just ask...how do you like the 2017 model Packard? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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I would posit that if our previous president had not been so adamantly opposed to anything that used hydocarbons for fuel, that there would be a helluva lot more NG vehicles out there now. In addition, if the gov. quits subsidizing electric cars, IMO their sales trajectory will substantially flatten. One should carefully consider battery life AND replacement cost in EVs. In cities they have their place, but I'm going to have to see an electric truck with range hauling 50,000 pounds or so. There are several usually ignored benefits to NG as a fuel, such as much longer engine life, fewer repairs, etc. Currently, even if one doubles the cost, NG is about 2/3 or less than that of gasoline. I'm not opposed to change, I'm just not at all convinced that EVs are it. Fuel cells? Quien sabe? xxxxxxxxxx When considering US based operations of guides/outfitters, check and see if they are NRA members. If not, why support someone who doesn't support us? Consider spending your money elsewhere. NEVER, EVER book a hunt with BLAIR WORLDWIDE HUNTING or JEFF BLAIR. I have come to understand that in hunting, the goal is not the goal but the process. | |||
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Related article:
xxxxxxxxxx When considering US based operations of guides/outfitters, check and see if they are NRA members. If not, why support someone who doesn't support us? Consider spending your money elsewhere. NEVER, EVER book a hunt with BLAIR WORLDWIDE HUNTING or JEFF BLAIR. I have come to understand that in hunting, the goal is not the goal but the process. | |||
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In addition, most people don't realize that the cost advantage of EVs is highly dependent on kwh cost and, all things considered is not nearly as high as most people think. Currently most EVs average about 30-33 kwh/100 miles. Nissan Leaf's batteries are currently guaranteed for 8yrs/100,000 miles and cost $5500 to replace with old battery trade in. That's 5.5 cents/mile in addition to kwh costs. A car that gets 35mpg, depending on kwh costs, is cheaper to drive and has substantially more range. xxxxxxxxxx When considering US based operations of guides/outfitters, check and see if they are NRA members. If not, why support someone who doesn't support us? Consider spending your money elsewhere. NEVER, EVER book a hunt with BLAIR WORLDWIDE HUNTING or JEFF BLAIR. I have come to understand that in hunting, the goal is not the goal but the process. | |||
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Lane/Gato I have looked at most of the negative stuff on TSLA when I was short calls and most of it has been refuted. The battery last a long time with a 20% decline over 12-15 years - the life of a us car. The car comes with a 8 year warranty - best in the industry. It is very simple to maintain and service - 4 motors tied to a battery pack. tsla technology is dated - 15-20 years. its also open source. All majors are coming out with their versions - there is newer and better battery technology largely driven by cell phones coming out. I like NG as it takes the whole refining equation out. Problem with NG is not consumer friendly to refill. The biggest bull on TSLA on wall street got a cautious on the name cause Goog and Appl are on its back. Battery technology comes from cell phones and the evolution is away from an oem manufactured automobile into a shared ecosystem. I don't think EV replace all cars and trucks - just has a massive impact on energy demand. I also think all the trucks guys will move to hybrid model - more driven by power than fuel efficiency. I think we can see this shared ecosystem in Uber and its likes in Asia. Cheap human capital has filled in for self drive technology. Biggest issue in self drive ecosystems in no the cars but communication - ther eis a spectrum shortage. In asia smart phones, cheap labor, congested cities/no parking has resulted in there being a floating pool of Ubers calls that are available in 3-5 minutes - thousands of cars. This will impact oil as most of these cars are on natural gas. You guys should test drive a tesla - its not a souped up golf cart (what I also thought it to be). Mike | |||
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I did drive one...you must not have read my post above. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Since at their maximum range, I can't drive to Dallas and back, much less driving around for my wife's shopping, they have zero appeal to me. In addition, worrying about how much difficult to replace juice I've got left while driving is just not me. It is a different scenario for urban dwellers no doubt. xxxxxxxxxx When considering US based operations of guides/outfitters, check and see if they are NRA members. If not, why support someone who doesn't support us? Consider spending your money elsewhere. NEVER, EVER book a hunt with BLAIR WORLDWIDE HUNTING or JEFF BLAIR. I have come to understand that in hunting, the goal is not the goal but the process. | |||
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I assumed you were like me and put a deposit down for a model 3 before I test drove a tesla Mike | |||
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All I am thinking is supercharging stations situated at the best Q joints along the way  Mike | |||
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LOL! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Mike, You have to remember I grew up in the age of 454 Chevy's that literally got 3-4 mpg but would move Heaven & Earth. Now I drive a Dodge Cummins that gets ~20 mpg...but will do the same work. I think that's damn good progress. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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I agree My 1988 Ford Bronco II was a piece of junk. 2016 F-150 0-60 in under 6 seconds Tows 12K More back seat seating room than a 7 series bmw Massive sunroof US/global cars and trucks have gotten really good. Mike | |||
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This data shows you how far google is from everyone in self drive cars and revolution in autos that is coming Waymo: 635,867 miles driven, 5,127 miles/disengagement GM/Cruise: 9,668 miles driven, 34 miles/disengagement Nissan: 4,099 miles driven, 28 miles/disengagement Bosch: 983 miles driven, 0.6 miles/disengagement Mercedes: 673 miles driven, 2 miles/disengagement BMW: 638 miles driven, 638 miles/disengagement Ford: 590 miles driven, 196 miles/disengagement Tesla: 550 miles driven, 3 miles/disengagement A disagreement is when a self drive car need human correction/intervention Ford fired its CEO cause it is behind in self drive Mike | |||
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I don't think I will live long enough to embrace a car driving me without me being in charge...but who knows. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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When your issuance for a self drive car are much lower and you realize you can drink without worry of dui and you realize you can be much more prepared for self defense/carry without having to worry about driving you will switch over Mike | |||
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I am surprised after meeting me...that you would think that. It is hard for to even embrace using a GPS...I still like to look at a map and plan my trip in my head. If I ever embrace a self-drive car...I will have truly surprised myself. While I know flying is the safest mode of travel and do it all the time...I still don't like someone/something else being in charge of my destiny. Just an old school person... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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But then I see the cutting edge medical stuff you do and I know you will change with the times. I think the biggest thing with self drive is reducing us accidents that are 50k per year. Mike | |||
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In my professional life...I am paid to make equine athletes win money. I have to stay on the cutting edge to make a living. In my personal life...I try to live simply and humbly. Yeah...I know I go hunt Africa and some would not consider that humble living but I hunt with old rifles by old methods and enjoy the old style experience more than killing anything. I don't see a self drive car in "my" future. But seeing the way the younger generations drive...maybe it is a good thing. You have to remember though I have been driving (down the hwy) since I was the 7th grade...nobody cared where I grew up. Dad did have me get my hardship license when I turned 15 but I was already driving to school so I could go check cattle afterwards. Usually took my rifle to school with me too. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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https://twitter.com/historytim...s/868564725352845316  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J. Lane Easter, DVM A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991. | |||
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Tesla market cap greater than gm or ford Google auto segment valued at 70 bil Uber at 50 bil plus F CEO fired cause f lacking in driver less cars Vw BMW mb Toyota Honda - all agree the future is electric and driveless cars - 20-30 years out Us autos are 11.6 years old - so it takes a while to replace auto base Texas is 10 largest oil producer All this sucks for Saudi Arabia and Russia so I am very happy and not long any energy other than some private equity investments. Mike | |||
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I predict Tesla will not be viable in 10 years, broke or defunct. xxxxxxxxxx When considering US based operations of guides/outfitters, check and see if they are NRA members. If not, why support someone who doesn't support us? Consider spending your money elsewhere. NEVER, EVER book a hunt with BLAIR WORLDWIDE HUNTING or JEFF BLAIR. I have come to understand that in hunting, the goal is not the goal but the process. | |||
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Electricity comes from somewhere.
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I used to be in that camp - not anymore. I still don't know how Tesla produced 1-2 mil vechicles a year. But the car they make is very good. I also think google has made some massive technological advances and what they do with their technology will drive auto industry. Mike | |||
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Electricity comes from numerous sources - coal, gas, hydro, solar, wind. Electricity also has numerous uses relative to oil which is primarily transport. So electricity can be moved from household or commercial or industrial uses to transport - better insulation, smart devices, energy efficient appliances - all allow some electricity can be moved to transport. Also you can generate electricity away from where here is congestion. Why electric cars can help cities like Beijing, New Delhi, London, la, Houston. Make your population one place and spread it out. Us oil production is awesome - gas is beyond and above awesome. And in electric cars, shared transport (uber) and the age of oil is coming to an end. Mike | |||
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