Is there a place "out there" where sheep tag success percentages are posted or evaluated for all of the western states? I would assume someone has captured this info and posted. I struggle to find it.

Thanks!

I am guessing it is .00?

Hunting Fool always shows statistics but to be honest I never understood them. There are so many variables, resident vs nonresident. Throw in points, do you have max points and are they bonus points or preference points, what if you are one less than max or ten less. It can make you crazy. That being said I have won a Stone sheep hunt and drew a NM desert sheep tag so the odds aren't impossible! Somebody draws or wins every year.

Most are Slim to None.

If you want a tag and do not want to scratch a big check at an auction or buy a landowner tag then you have to apply, apply, apply.

Apply in all the western states that have ram sheep tags for non-residents and also apply for goats, moose, elk, deer and antelope. I spend about $1800 on nonrefundable fees and required hunting licenses and bonus or preference points. At times have around $15,000 sitting in the bank accounts of various State Treasury Departments that require the full permit fee be paid as apply then that money flows back to me as refunds if I do not draw a tag.

Was quite a bit less than $1800 two decades ago. One thing is certain and that is non-resident fees will rise faster than inflation and faster than resident fees and the tag pool for non-residents may shrink as well.

If I draw a tag then there there is that cost in addition to the $1800. Some sheep tags are over $2000.

Look at WY. If I recall correctly, 9000 non-resident applicants for 50 non-resident ram tags. 9000/50 is 180 years of demand for the tag supply. You will not live to be 180. you won't. Say you can stay healthy enough to apply for 60 years. 60/180 means over your hunting career, you have 1 in 3 odds to get a ram tag if you apply every year in WY for sheep at 60 x $100 a year preference point of $6000. Three people applying for 60 years have a 3 x (1 in 3) or 100% odds will draw so that is $6000 x 3 or $18,000 spend by 3 people for one to draw a tag.

Wyoming has good non-resident ram odds compared to places like Utah or NM.

Over the years of applying out West, I have drawn a bull moose tag in Idaho, a mountain goat tag in Colorado, a bighorn ewe tag in Colorado, an aoudad ram tag in Texas, an oryx tag in New Mexico, two high quality Coues whitetail tags, one high quality mule deer tag, two high quality bull elk tags, and fifteen nice pronghorn tags. I also drew 5 middling deer tags and 4 middling elk tags. A high quality hunt to me is few tags with lots of public land and high harvest rates on above average animals. The middling tags were fun hunts but missing one or more of the high quality factors.

My cost was not $1800 a year on average but is fair to figure was $1400 x 25 years so $35,000 to get a chance to draw the above tags then add all the actual tag costs for another $15,000.

That is $35,000 plus $15,000 so $50,000/25 years or $2,000 a year to get those hunt tags in hand and figure I spent that amount per hunt on non-resident hunts I could drive to and 2x that for hunts had to fly to so spent over $5,000 most years for this hobby and closer to $10,000 in others. I rarely pay for access to land or for guides so that would increase the costs. I wear out equipment or have to add some so figure another $1000 a year for that. All in, applications and tags and costs to get to/from hunts and taxidermy ends up around $7,000 a year now.

Have drawn more tags in the second half of my 25 years of applying than in the first half. That is mainly due to building up bonus points and preference points.

Nothing inexpensive about being a non-resident hunter. A dang good hobby in my opinion and have no other expensive vices and the kids are grown adults now. Works for me.

Treewalker,
Thanks for the info. I have done my math and figured about the same as you.

My other perspective was to try the various raffles as I can enter as often as I can afford.

Also, at age 62, I doubt I will build up the needed pref points to ever draw, so, ...I suspect my tactic is to take the money that I would spend over the next few years and buy a tag in BC or Alberta or Mexico and go.

I avoid raffles not publicly witnessed when drawn. Hopefully are legit though I hav seen my share of rigged drawings at places such as trade shows to know are lots of ways to fix the entry drawn whether is folded, etc, so is selected.

Research and can find out how many tickets are typically sold for a particular raffle. I did this as was applying for all the sheep tags so with some extra money laying around decided to do some of the raffles.

I then converted the likelihood would be drawn by converting the $ per 1/1000 of a chance of being drawn. The better values get more money but participate in several.

Here is a link to a thread on some of the raffles for the Big 3 class of animals. http://www.rokslide.com/forums...0-sheep-raffles.html

The Arizona stats are buried in here,
https://portal.azgfd.stagingaz...es/regs/mainregs.pdf

A friend of mine took 43 years to be drawn for AZ bighorn. Was before bonus point system. He

quote:

Originally posted by TreeWalker:
Look at WY. If I recall correctly, 9000 non-resident applicants for 50 non-resident ram tags. 9000/50 is 180 years of demand for the tag supply. You will not live to be 180. you won't. Say you can stay healthy enough to apply for 60 years. 60/180 means over your hunting career, you have 1 in 3 odds to get a ram tag if you apply every year in WY for sheep at 60 x $100 a year preference point of $6000. Three people applying for 60 years have a 3 x (1 in 3) or 100% odds will draw so that is $6000 x 3 or $18,000 spend by 3 people for one to draw a tag.

Unless WY uses a bonus or preference system, the odds of drawing will never change no matter how many years someone applies. It will always depend on the number of applicants for the number of available tags, i.e per your example 9000/50. The only change would occur if one or both of those totals change. If they both are the same 180 years from now, the odds will be the same as now, no matter how many times someone has applied in the past.

Outdoor writer is correct on the stats. What TreeWalker described is not statistically valid.

If you apply every year, for the rest of your life, you will need to outlive the other applicants in draws which use points and hope the game departments don't change the rules. If Wyoming goes to the 90-10 split they have discussed then non-resident opportunity will be cut by 60% or more. There is a reasonable expectation to see permits prices increase.

If you want to hunt sheep, then invest in yourself. Spend the money on a guaranteed hunt and then pay yourself back over the years with what you would have spent on applications. Maybe your will forgive yourself of the debt after you do on the ride.

To apply for permits today a non resident will pay approx-
Utah- $90
Nevada-$165
Arizona- $170
Wyoming-$115
Colorado- $40
Idaho- $160
Montana- $50
New mexico- $15
Oregon- $170
Washington- $120

So around $1,100 in State application fees. Or buy a cancellation dall hunt for $15,000 and pay yourself back over the next 15 years.

Care to explain why the attempted explanation re how low odds are for a lifetime of applying for sheep us flawed? I used WY as an example. A lifetime is a series of applications. The die you roll has 9000 sides of which only 50 result in a tag and 8950 result in no tag. You get 60 rolls. Your expected result is you will not once land a roll that wins. If three people are given 60 rolls each then only one on average will roll a win.

Living to be 80 may not lock in a tag as several applicants will live to be 80. There just are not enough tags in the nonresident allocation to meet demand but 75% of the tags going to applicants with the most points will result in that 75% subset of hunters drawing a nonresident sheep tag being roughly 1 year older than the nonresidents drawing with preference points the prior year. WY has created a slow-moving train wreck with 2/3 of the passengers doomed to die before reaching the destination and 75% of the 1/3 drawing at an ever- advanced age. Eat lots of oatmeal since the 25% of 1/3 which is under 1 in 10 will draw a tag younger than age 50.

If WY whacks nonresident allocation in half then the die only has 25 sides that win and 1 in 6 draw a tag in a lifetime and those under age 50 falls to user 1 in 20.

Fellows:

For another approach, see my post contained in "Help with sheep tags" file. Put your hopes in the hands of the Lord!

cpaer

Anyone who does not have in excess of 15 points will probably never draw a sheep tag. The odds suck.

You could also draw a tag in a state like Wyoming and never even see a mature ram. Happened to my uncle 2 or 3 years ago. In an area he has hunted his entire life, and he spent the entire season on the mountain.

States that have lots of sheep, and lots of sheep tags give priorities to residents (they should, they live there). So a way to help the odds are to move there.

If you are retired, and it is a priority for you, it might be worth considering.

Here are the stats for Wyoming no preference points:

Residents drew 31 tags without points, and 4888 people applied. .00634 percent of people will draw Resident no points.

Non-Residents drew 7 tags without points, and 2375 non-residents applied. .00294 percent of peoplw will draw non-res no points.

Resident with points drew 97 tags, and 3716 applied. .02610 residents drew with max points.

Non-Residents drew 48 tags, and 2428 non-residents applied. .01976 non-residents drew with max points.

Even with max points a Resident has a 2.6% chance of drawing and a Non-Resident has a 1.97% chance of drawing.

This is flawed math, but it gives us a place to start.

I think Wyoming is a really good place to draw a sheep tag, but I don't know if that tag has much value.