I'm just gonna throw this out there and see what sticks...

I've been thinking, most folks wait untill it's too late to stock up on things, no matter what kind of "things" you are talking about. Of course, what I am talking about here is reloading supplies, but you get the point. When it comes to crisis time, then it is too late, prices are going up, availability is down. The panic feeds on itself, making the situation worse than what it actually is, compounding the problem due to "panic buying."

Things seem pretty good right now, prices are not too bad, most things are available, no one is in panic mode. I have a friend that is quietly putting about $100 into reloading supplies every month, getting stocked up for the long term. What is funny is that I had just started doing about the same thing ('cept I have already spent $250 this month). It appears him and I have been thinking along the same lines. Elections are just a year away, and if the unthinkable (but quite possible) happens and the anointed one gets a second term, things could go bad quick. The last go round caught me off guard, but this time it won't. I'm not talking Armegeddon style stocking levels, just kind of the heavy end of somewhat normal.

Fuel prices have some components already climbing, so 6 months ago probably would have been the best time to start. Our economy is far from out of the tank, and there are alot of events happening around the world that could send things back into a tailspin on short notice. Instability and the unknown can be powerful driving factors.

What are everyones thoughts on this subject? I'll be stocking up anyways, no matter what general consensus is, just because it will make me feel better...

If you didn't make up your mind from the last go-round...

Please don't hoard.

Personally, I'm waiting to buy from the widows of the hoarders who caused the last shortage. The garage sale prices will be pretty attractive.

Metal prices (which drive, to some extent, the price of brass and bullets) are at historic highs. That's not to say that they won't go higher, but there appears to be more downside room in basic commodities than upside potential. Translation: I expect component prices at some point in the future to be lower in terms of constant dollars than they are at the present.

Due to the recent shortage and price run-up, which was a product of both fundamentals (two wars spraying brass and lead across a significant portion of southern Asia coupled with high commodity prices) and market psycology ("they're about to take my guns and ammunition away!"), the the offer of "used" components (more accurately, components previously sold at retail) like partial boxes of bullets or a half-carton of primers, has been met with unusually strong demand. In more "normal" times, the market discriminates more heavily against such "previously owned" components. Thus, if the market returns to a "more normal" situation then the "used" components you are holding in your hoard will tend to become less marketable. That only matters to you if you treat those components as financial assets and not simply personal consumables. Of course, if you didn't regard components in some sense as assets then it would be pointless to pose the question, woudn't it?

The big, broad term is investing.

First you need the basics. Food. Clothes. Shelter.

Then there is the traditional "hard asset" for rainy days suggestions. Gold. Silver. Rock solid government treasury bonds (ha, ha... They say what you paid $1.00 for in 2000 you could have bought for $0.04 pennies in 1900...), Munis. Etc.

At the same time, assuming the food is taken care of and if nothing else goes right you will use up the goods yourself... term is "hard assets..." soap, toilet paper, beer (in bottles, cans corrode), reloading supplies... vegetables for eating within 5 years, etc.

First can of IMR powder I bought was $2.00. No, not surplus. Couple years and gunsmith friend later I got into Hodgdon surplus... 8 lbs for approx. $35.00. Bruce H. (Sr.) told me that he had to stop doing that for liability reasons. I have a box of bullets I paid $2.00 for. And $5. and ??? You don't want to know what my Rockchucker cost. In the very beginning UPS was dropping long rifle on my porch at $0.49 / per box. Small risk the gun hating wackos will get it all outlawed and you will have to "eat it," bury it, hide it. At the same time there are "rats" that will report you to the authorities... "He has bullets (copper and lead or do they mean cartridges), thousands and thousands, and when they explode his whole neighborhood will be leveled... Why the state will be leveled... do something, protect me, must be a terrorist," etc... Morons... But beware of same. Otherwise, it ain't going down any time soon. 10 years ago copper was under $1.00 / lb. Today, I think it is around $4.00 / lb.

Sure, sock it away. Just remember if you have to move... A LOT more moving expense, or you sell at fire sale prices (which still will probably be more than you paid.) Luck.

quote:

Originally posted by iiranger:
Sure, sock it away. Just remember if you have to move... A LOT more moving expense, or you sell at fire sale prices (which still will probably be more than you paid.) Luck.

Don't be so certain that your components will appreciate.

In 1960 the cataloged price of a box of Sierra 50 grain .224 Spitzers was $3.25. If you run that price through the Inflation Calculator at http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ you'll find that price equates to $23.65 in 2010 dollars. You'll also find that Graf's lists those same bullets today for $15.39, meaning that if you bought them in 1960 and held them all of this time, even if you could resell them at full retail you would be losing over $8 per box.

Times ain't as hard today as lots of people make out. Not only are those bullets cheaper today, but I've also got the money in my pocket to buy more than I can use.

quote:

Personally, I'm waiting to buy from the widows of the hoarders who caused the last shortage. The garage sale prices will be pretty attractive.

Bingo!!
That's when I'm going to stock up. A few years ago, one of you old codgers that stocked up for Y2K kicked the bucket. Now dad is stocked for several life times...

I see nothing wrong with stocking for a one year's supply....whatever that is!

If that's a thousand primers then so be it....if that's 200 bullets of a kind and 300 of another and 500 of another then so be it....

I think Stonecreek nailed it.....those that overstock will eventually have their stockpiles on sale somewhere.....possibly after their passing.

Triple package them and store well.

I helped out a few folks here with powder and primers this time.....and might be able to help next time......and next time just might be damn soon!

I'm currently just buying what I need.

Let me clarify a little. Like I said, I'm not talking about armageddon levels of personal stock. I'm in my early 40's and even though I do realize anything can happen, I ain't planning on kicking the bucket in the next 10 or 15 years. I've been reloading for 30 years, so it is not an idle fancy either. I've got way too much invested in guns/equipment for that. I'm also not talking about buying more than it would take me 5 or so years to shoot. I just got caught with some low levels last time around, and it really sucked not being able to get what I wanted, when I wanted. I bought what I had to so I could get by, trying not to make the shortage worse than it was, but it did cramp my style.

There is no shortage right now, and I don't see myself ruining things for everyone while there is plenty of everything on the shelf. In fact, quite the contrary. I plan on getting to comfortable levels of everything right now, so if the SHTF I am not one of the last minute panic buyers making matters worse. What is funny is that I imagine there are several of you guys that have more on your shelf right now than I will even after I "stock up".

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:

quote:

Originally posted by iiranger:
Sure, sock it away. Just remember if you have to move... A LOT more moving expense, or you sell at fire sale prices (which still will probably be more than you paid.) Luck.

Don't be so certain that your components will appreciate.

In 1960 the cataloged price of a box of Sierra 50 grain .224 Spitzers was $3.25. If you run that price through the Inflation Calculator at http://www.westegg.com/inflation/ you'll find that price equates to $23.65 in 2010 dollars. You'll also find that Graf's lists those same bullets today for $15.39, meaning that if you bought them in 1960 and held them all of this time, even if you could resell them at full retail you would be losing over $8 per box.

Times ain't as hard today as lots of people make out. Not only are those bullets cheaper today, but I've also got the money in my pocket to buy more than I can use.

Stone Stone Stone, how you say times ain't as hard today as lot of people make out. You have your head in the sand or something? The true unemployment rate is like around 18-19% percent. I have never in my lifetime seen so many people out of work, I have never seen prices of everything so high, look at gasoline, what a mess that industry is. Our national debt is in the trillions....we basically have a bunch of progressives and communists running our government....you're nuts of you don't think times are hard. Maybe you are one of those disgustingly rich people...so perhaps you should do as Obama said...hand down your wealth.

Yes, it is time to stock up. what is amazing I have talked to a lot of poeple who are stocking up after the Japenese Tsunami and nuclear plant incident.

I have stocked up a couple weeks of extra food and water for the family for a month. Do I see the end of the world no but what if a tornado hits a water pumping station (suburbs -no wells) or the grid fails. We have had neighbores go a few days without power - not good. What if it turns into two weeks?

Oh and to the point I didn't get carried away but a few thousand extra primers won't hurt.

Smoking:
It's a recessioin if you loose your job.
It's a depression if I loose mine!

SmokinJ: You completely miss my point. The fact is that most shooting supplies and equipment are cheaper today in terms of constant dollars than they were when we were young whippersnappers. And typically, most of your shooting supplies and equipment won't rise in value as fast as inflation (or the nominal historic return on cash in the bank). So, hoarding shooting components in the belief that doing so will enrich you whether you utilize them or not is a demonstrably failed strategy. On the other hand, hoarding them for the pleasure you get from it is, as the credit card ad says, "priceless".

I'll agree with you on the unhealthiness of the current economy and that far too many people are unemployed/underemployed. However, regardless of your political views, the trajectory of the economy was set during the years prior to 2009 and has measurably improved in the last three quarters. As those of us with memories longer than the barrel on a S&W Chief's Special will remember, gasoline prices were higher in 2008 than today and unemployment was on its way up rather than on its way down.

The closest I've come to stocking up over buying as I need is 5k boxes of primers. About 3 years worth but got a good price on them. I have all the brass I need, and buy powder in 8lb cans, also better price. I shoot about 1000 rounds each of rifle and pistol a year not counting rimfire, that's another 1500 or so.

I see nothing with buying what you need to last a year.
I don't see any prices going down this year nor the next.
I am currently looking at my stock,something that I do this time of year,trying to replace what was used.

If you can count on your income keeping up with inflation, then you can buy into the "cheaper than ever" postulation.

But, the plain truth is that for many Americans, their incomes are NOT keeping up with inflation. Twenty Five years ago I was making $8,000 a month. Prices have gone up somewhere between 500 and 1,000 percent since then. My income sure as hell doesn't even approach $40,000 to $80,000 per month now. So, for me and others like me, things are NOT cheaper.

If you are on a fixed income as many retirees are, things are even worse.

Also, thanks to government, aging, etc, many folks HAVE to spend more on mandated things, such as health care, car insurance, home insurance, and on and on. That leaves less to spend on avocations, recreation, "wannas", etc.

What does make sense to me is to make an estimate of how many components you will need for YOUR individual forseeable future. Then write out a plan as to how you will endeavor to obtain that amount of components over that time span. You don't have to rigidly stick to your plan, but at least if you have it drawn out in writing, it is easy to remain aware of when you are getting ahead and when you are falling behind in meeting your projected needs.

I certainly wouldn't recommend buying more of any component than you may need in that "future" unless you plan to re-sell them within a reasonable time frame, nor would I recommend hurting yourself or your family financially in the "acquisition" process. But if you see really good bargains for stuff you will need as you trek through life, then THAT IS the time to buy if you can.

One thing is for sure, if you don't buy what you need when you can afford to, things are going to be tougher for you to purchase down the road. The prices in ABSOLUTE TERMS have done nothing but go up for the past few hundred years.

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
SmokinJ: You completely miss my point. The fact is that most shooting supplies and equipment are cheaper today in terms of constant dollars than they were when we were young whippersnappers. And typically, most of your shooting supplies and equipment won't rise in value as fast as inflation (or the nominal historic return on cash in the bank). So, hoarding shooting components in the belief that doing so will enrich you whether you utilize them or not is a demonstrably failed strategy. On the other hand, hoarding them for the pleasure you get from it is, as the credit card ad says, "priceless".

I'll agree with you on the unhealthiness of the current economy and that far too many people are unemployed/underemployed. However, regardless of your political views, the trajectory of the economy was set during the years prior to 2009 and has measurably improved in the last three quarters. As those of us with memories longer than the barrel on a S&W Chief's Special will remember, gasoline prices were higher in 2008 than today and unemployment was on its way up rather than on its way down.

Okay Stone, I see where you are coming from.

Antelope Sniper,
It's over when Obama losses his job.

I think like BNagel & Stonecreek. Sure hope this is not current thinking and there is a rush to hoarding and "investing" (hoping to buy cheap now and sell high later). Don't know that was the cause of last shortage but I am convinced it aggravated the situation.

How long was the last shortage? How much did you suffer? How much overreaction was there? I did not have a problem- and I do not carry large stocks. I only buy for current needs(one year projection?). This hysteria about what may happen just feeds on itself, helps run up prices and serves the suppliers interests. Just my .02c

All you need are primers. Everything else was availabelin some form, bullets, powder, lots of chocies, but w/o primers, you are not shooting. I can steal powder from sg shells or other rifle rounds & make do, cast my own bullets, but w/o primers, you are done.

quote:

Originally posted by fredj338:
All you need are primers. Everything else was availabelin some form, bullets, powder, lots of chocies, but w/o primers, you are not shooting. I can steal powder from sg shells or other rifle rounds & make do, cast my own bullets, but w/o primers, you are done.

Used primers have been reloaded with match heads and worked...not as well as one might want, but well enough to fire a gun. Then again, there's always the flintlock

quote:

Originally posted by Sam:
The closest I've come to stocking up over buying as I need is 5k boxes of primers. About 3 years worth but got a good price on them. I have all the brass I need, and buy powder in 8lb cans, also better price. I shoot about 1000 rounds each of rifle and pistol a year not counting rimfire, that's another 1500 or so.

.....AND the Privi Partizan bullets!....And the lead bullets....And the double rifles!.....Man...I have fun going through all your stuff and shooting your guns!

quote:

Originally posted by Alberta Canuck:

quote:

Originally posted by fredj338:
All you need are primers. Everything else was availabelin some form, bullets, powder, lots of chocies, but w/o primers, you are not shooting. I can steal powder from sg shells or other rifle rounds & make do, cast my own bullets, but w/o primers, you are done.

Used primers have been reloaded with match heads and worked...not as well as one might want, but well enough to fire a gun. Then again, there's always the flintlock

And flintlocks are FUN!!

I have put a little thought into this and would posit that in survival terms, you cannot do any better than a good .22RF. No reason not to have thousands of rounds of that around.
Ultimately, if you are thinking in a real SHTF scenario, the only centerfires you need to worry about are those in military/surplus chamberings such as 308, 223, and 7.62X39 etc. simply because the amount of ammo out there for these dwarfs any sporting cartridge.
I keep brass, powders and primers available for my sporters in some quantity, but not crazy levels. I figure my "escape pod" will pretty much consist of a .22, AK, and a .45ACP

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
SmokinJ: You completely miss my point. The fact is that most shooting supplies and equipment are cheaper today in terms of constant dollars than they were when we were young whippersnappers. And typically, most of your shooting supplies and equipment won't rise in value as fast as inflation (or the nominal historic return on cash in the bank). So, hoarding shooting components in the belief that doing so will enrich you whether you utilize them or not is a demonstrably failed strategy. On the other hand, hoarding them for the pleasure you get from it is, as the credit card ad says, "priceless".

I'll agree with you on the unhealthiness of the current economy and that far too many people are unemployed/underemployed. However, regardless of your political views, the trajectory of the economy was set during the years prior to 2009 and has measurably improved in the last three quarters. As those of us with memories longer than the barrel on a S&W Chief's Special will remember, gasoline prices were higher in 2008 than today and unemployment was on its way up rather than on its way down.

Wow! At last I see someone else say this on this site! You nailed it dead center sir! I visited the US in 2007 & 2008 and the writing was on the wall. The impact on my business from the US was the worst. It is just starting to pick up. The various enquiries and quotes that I sent out in 2007 & 2008 are mostly still on the back burner. Some are just waking up from the long freeze!

Ed said:

quote:

Antelope Sniper,
It's over when Obama losses his job.

Maybe---but the accumulated bill will still have to be paid!

We will vote May second and god help us if we elect those fricken Liberals!

quote:

quote:
Antelope Sniper,
It's over when Obama losses his job.

That would be a very good beginning.
We also need a few Republicans to grow a pair soe we can:
Get the EPA under control. Knock the teeth out of the ESA, get some wells drilled, new refinery's built, how about some new domestic copper mines?
And how about passing a balanced budget, or at least something close to balanced with REAL cuts in the size and scope of goverment.

I don't think there is enough blood in the streets yet. I think there is a strong chance we will get there, but as long as there are enough Americans who will vote their own interests/fantasies and politicians who can't say no, we will continue to elect folks who give us what we want....not what we can have or afford.

Maybe they haven't seen " The Scenario " Yet ? !. Go ahead an chuckle , where's Gold and Sliver Now !!!.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8gJSMoOJc

Some day payments on borrowed money in worthless printed currency , will no longer interest our creditors !!!. What's you gonna do then !.

quote:

Originally posted by Huvius:


And flintlocks are FUN!!

I have put a little thought into this and would posit that in survival terms, you cannot do any better than a good .22RF. No reason not to have thousands of rounds of that around.
Ultimately, if you are thinking in a real SHTF scenario, the only centerfires you need to worry about are those in military/surplus chamberings such as 308, 223, and 7.62X39 etc. simply because the amount of ammo out there for these dwarfs any sporting cartridge.
I keep brass, powders and primers available for my sporters in some quantity, but not crazy levels. I figure my "escape pod" will pretty much consist of a .22, AK, and a .45ACP

Huvius - I agree with your whole post. Good thinking, man!

I have lots of brass and bullets around...not too much powder since I moved.

I gave over 300 pounds of powder free of charge to a community young shooter training program in Oregon just before I left about a year ago. Sold 60,000 or so primers cheap ($16 per thousand) because friends in that area were in need of things like Fed 215s, Federal match primers, etc. Even gave away about 15,000 more of those to folks I knew could make real use of them.

Anyway, I still have lots of brass and bullets because I have lots of rifles. And when I want to shoot them some day in the future, I don't want to have to look even ten minutes for the odd-ball cartridges I tend to enjoy the most.

With me stocking up in advance is a matter of my convenience, not hoarding or fear.

Something that seems to apply...

If you are going to panic, panic first!

I don't see much evidence that we are to the point where many are stocking up or conserving their supplies.
I have mentioned this before, but I frequent my local recycling center and rummage through the brass bin. Actually, they have a separate bin for fired cases.
I highly suggest you guys do the same. The other day I picked up 114 Lake City BMG cases for $30 not to mention an endless supply of 30'06, 308, 223 and handgun brass.

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
I'll agree with you on the unhealthiness of the current economy and that far too many people are unemployed/underemployed. However, regardless of your political views, the trajectory of the economy was set during the years prior to 2009 and has measurably improved in the last three quarters. As those of us with memories longer than the barrel on a S&W Chief's Special will remember, gasoline prices were higher in 2008 than today and unemployment was on its way up rather than on its way down.

I see very little improvement in the economy. The actual UR is well in excess of 10% nationwide. PBO & the libs have added $5T in debt that is forcing the dollar into decline & we have little to show for that debt. If the states & Feds don't get their defined benefit plans under control, we will crash like Greece, never to rise again & CHina will be the new super power. Yes it is that bad. Anyone that thinks $115T in debt in a declining GDP isn't bad is foolng themselves.

Just buying what I need and a little more if it is on sale at a good price I buy a little extra.

I buy when things are on sale. Always a good idea to have a nice selection of items handy. The next scare will be the end of the world prediction for December 2012.

I definitely agree on the .22 RF stuff, you can never have too much of that. Very versatile, and I can go through several hundred rounds of it a week without even trying. If I am in a serious shooting groove it will go way over that.

Being in NewYorkistan I have to buy all my components online (or pay to be gouged at Gander Mt and drive 40 min to get there). So I try and buy wahtever I can afford for primers and powders. 8lb containers are a big help, but big price tag when you get a few at a time.

So shortages kill guys like me, if you have to pay the extra hazmat fee for a few lbs of powder.

Don't forget changes in technology and local laws.

In our little liberal corner of the world our lead bullets became illegal for hunting. Of course we can still shoot them on paper, but that's not a real good use for the Partitions, Swifts, etc. that I had stored away. When the law went through they went on the classified section for a fraction of what I paid. Not a real smart investment on my part.

And over the years I've stocked up on too many components that frankly have pathetic performance compared to more modern technology.

quote:

Originally posted by BNagel:
If you didn't make up your mind from the last go-round...

Please don't hoard.

It's only hoarding when things are in short supply. IF not then it's buying with intelligence forethought.

quote:

Originally posted by Kyler Hamann:
Don't forget changes in technology and local laws.

In our little liberal corner of the world our lead bullets became illegal for hunting. Of course we can still shoot them on paper, but that's not a real good use for the Partitions, Swifts, etc. that I had stored away. When the law went through they went on the classified section for a fraction of what I paid. Not a real smart investment on my part.

And over the years I've stocked up on too many components that frankly have pathetic performance compared to more modern technology.

So, I guess I have two questions:

1. Did you buy them to shoot, or as an investment?

2. Do the bullets you practice with now cost more than the ones you sold?

My observations would be that if you sold premium bullets for less than you are now paying for ones to practice with, you would have been money ahead to practice with the premium ones.

And, if the premium bullets you sold brought you more than enough money to pay for your replacements you now practice with, it appears you still came out okay on the deal.

If you bought the bullets to sell rather than to shoot, then you learned some business lessons of the kinds all business owners learn sooner or later.

As a basic rule, profit involves active selling, good timing, levels of stock just slightly more than the current demand for the products you are selling, and good luck.

One of the downsides of the capitalist system is that no businessman is GUARANTEED a profit. The histories of the dot.com bubble, the housing bubble (and eventually, the precious metal bubble) all teach the same things. Long-term successful business is a planned, managed activity. Speculation is NOT a good long-term business model.

I keep a 3-year supply on hand no matter what. More than that just takes up too much shelf space.

Barstooler