Lion populations in West, Central and East Africa are in danger of declining by as much as half in the next two decades, according to a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Researchers from the University of Oxford looked at surveys of 47 lion populations across Africa conducted since 1990 and used the observed trends to predict how those animals would fare two decades into the future. The results were sobering.

The surveys, which accounted for an estimated total of 8,221 lions, showed that over the past 25 years populations have declined everywhere except in four countries -- Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. In West Central Africa, there is only one region where numbers are not falling, and two areas in which lions are now likely extinct.

A similar pattern was found in East Africa, with Serengeti's being the only large lion population not in decline.

From this, the researchers, led by Oxford's Hans Bauer, estimated that lions in West and Central Africa have a 67 percent chance of seeing their numbers halved over the next two decades. In East Africa, the chances of this are 37 percent.

"Unless political and funding commitments are scaled up to address mounting levels of threat, lions may disappear from most of Africa," the study authors wrote.

The African lion, they stressed, "exemplifies the challenges of carnivore conservation." They are threatened by widespread habitat loss, depletions in available prey, preemptive killing to protect humans and their livestock along with poaching and "poorly regulated sport hunting," an issue that commanded headlines the world over after the slaughter of Zimbabwe's veritable maned mascot, Cecil.

The lion is listed as vulnerable on the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List, with the western subpopulation marked critically endangered. The species (Pathera leo) would be moved to the endangered list if numbers were to decline by at least 50 percent over three lion generations, the researchers report. It is under consideration for listing as threatened or endangered under the US Endangered Species Act.

The study results underscore a bright spot in the dim future of African lions. The authors found that in Southern Africa -- where the density of human settlement is lower and the abundance of prey higher -- populations do not indicate as drastic or widespread a decline.

A system of small, fenced-in reserves that are "intensively managed" and sufficiently funded also play a large part. The study found that none of the populations in these southern fenced reserves have experienced a sharp decline and that many are increasing in numbers.

"Effective management of lions in large landscapes is also possible but has rarely been implemented at sufficiently large scale, except in southern Africa," the researchers wrote.

They caution that without adequate efforts, the iconic savannah landscapes may cease to be the most successful sites for lion conservation, and that the majestic animals may lose their venerated status at the top of the food chain.
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I would like to hear what Aaron and Lane have to say here.

Jeff

quote:

Originally posted by vvreddy:

The surveys, which accounted for an estimated total of 8,221 lions, showed that over the past 25 years populations have declined everywhere except in four countries -- Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

In other words, the numbers have declined in every African country except those that have a substantial hunting presence. Coincidental I am sure.

quote:

Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

Where hunting is a valuable contribution to the economy- the Lions are doing much better than elsewhere-

Funny how that works - not

Don't believe everything you read in the press. Zambia records a very healthy cat population and in certain areas Lion are on the increase.

Protect ecosystems and you protect all species.

Seems like the usual dig at hunting...

"Poorly regulated sport hunting like Cecil..."

Habitat destruction and retaliatory killings are probably # 1 and #2 but they have to throw in a feel good item. Legal hunting is a drop in the bucket, but the press and academics have no obligation to be fair and reasonable.

Heck, the WHO today declared bacon to be in the same category as asbestos and Mercury as far as a carcinogen and made some commentary that it is not as strong, but .gov needs to start making common sense regulations...

Gives new meaning to " Bringing the bacon home "
Lion are cats right?
They breed like one right?
If they have enough prey and space and protection ( read value ) from local populace, they"ll do just fine...

quote:

after the slaughter of Zimbabwe's veritable maned mascot, Cecil.

Seems fair and balanced to me.....

Just a few observations;

- Study was for West, Central and East Africa but then they bring in Bots, SA, Namibia and Zim. Apples to apples?
- Is the 8221 pop est for West, Central and EA only as it appears? I would challenge that as the last survey for Tz estimated close to 16k lion.
- I struggle to believe that Zim lion pops are not declining in general?
- I disagree that in Tz all lion pops except the Serengeti are in decline. I would argue that a number of pops are steady and a few very slightly increasing over the last 3-5 years.
- Have captive and farmed lion been included in the Southern Africa stats?

Otherwise, they state nothing ground breaking....we all know that with adequate protection, lion and other game will do just fine. The required protection across all populations is what is lacking at the moment and you don't need to be a scientist to reach that conclusion.

Along with echoing Mich's comments...and WITHOUT THE ANTI-HUNTING/CECIL DIG ...the article pretty much states the obvious...and I suspect...accurate.

The only way lions are going to survive in the wild is with large tracks of habitat plush with game. The only way I know to make this economically feasible outside of parks is hunting.

Outside of parks, which pretty much fulfill the photo-safari industry needs...hunting is the only thing that gives lion worth in order to justify land tracts set aside for them and all other wildlife.

Just like predicted eons ago...take away hunting, no viable use for land except for livestock and farming. Livestock and farming don't mix with lion, ele, rhino, buffalo, and leopard.

No hunting means the big five are vermin outside of parks...vermin are exterminated.

Like Mich said...probably fairly accurate...but nothing new or unpredictable.

Lane & Bwanamich have answered the questions already. More mis-leading info (to a degree) telling us all what we already know.

"poorly regulated sport hunting", really? We hear that all the time from these groups, but never factual info to support their position? Since implementing new rules / regs in TZ, the lion off-take went from 300 lions, to 150, to 81, to 43, per year. Not sure yet of 2015 numbers, but seems to me that hunters / PH's are doing a better job as they all try to get on the same page with age / pride structure based selection!!!!!

Making mention of the fenced properties doing well I think only lends more support to what I have said in the past. Eventually in Africa, places similar to the BVC will be necessary for large populations of game/carnivores to ultimately survive. Africa's population and greed is destroying habitat at an alarming rate!