quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by Tim Ferrall:
Well said, Saeed, it is no one's business other than the breeders, buyers and sellers. Given the tone of most of the people posting on this topic, anyone with any knowledge or facts about the subject is highly unlikely to expose themselves to those whose minds are already made up.

Walk me thru a simple cash flow model from a prize stud cape buffalo?

How do you justify the price on a rational return on capital framework?

Mike

Mike,

The point is it must make sense to those who are involved in it, and it has been going on for years, so it must be worth their while.

A lot of people thought they .com stocks were worth their while. Same with residential property prior to 2008. Many got hammered HARD . People will get hammered hard on these critters as well.

This is not a hunting issue. It is an investment issue. In the final analysis, the numbers can't be justified.

quote:

Originally posted by INTREPID SAFARIS:
What I cant understand is that nobody is asking anyone for money they are buying the game with there own money why are you guys so up tide about it? it almost seems like every one cant wait for this bubble to bursts! well they have being predicting it to burst 10 years ago already and it is still growing, Namibia is also taking it up now, I own ranches it is not A easy way to make a living how ever we do it by choice having said that what is wrong if A rancher suddenly makes good money on a animal?

Phillip, it's not so much that people are wanting the bubble to burst, it's simply that the artificial bubble is what is the driving force behind the ever increasing trophy fees folks are paying. Most US hunters going to Africa do not understand what happens behind the curtain. A little light behind the curtain is a healthy thing and a little knowledge can help hunters better negotiate hunting costs as well as decide where and who to hunt with. Some folks don't mind hunting on a put and take farm, while others do. And I believe that even more probably would mind if they know what was happening behind the scenes.

A lot of the African hunting experiences being hawked today are about as natural as going to the grocery store - and yes, it has been going on for a very long time.

This thread has me thinking about something a little bit different.

Game farms spend exorbitant sums to buy exemplary freaks of nature to pass along genetics in a controlled environment. This happens not just in Africa but in the USA and other parts of the world.

Barring the argument that such purchases are nothing more than a money laundering scheme to transfer large sums of money and bribes, In my mind, it's the end consumer (The Hunter) that demands these animals and their associated prices exist. It could be the downstream economics of having unusual and rare game animals to hunt on ones property. It could also be that people want to get their name in the record books. Bragging Rights. Ego.

What if we removed the bragging rights from the equation? What if the hunter's name was stricken from the record books and the animal was the only honor found in Boone & Crocket / Pope & Young, etc.? There would never be any acknowledgement of you, as a hunter, associated with such a record breaking animal.

Do you think that would change the industry desire to pay large sums for Rare Breed Stock as it does today? Would YOU, the Hunter, be willing to pay $25,000+ for that 300+ class non-typical Whitetail game farm hunt in Texas? Or a 70" Kudu in Namibia? Or 55" Buffalo in Zim?

[equote]What if we removed the bragging rights from the equation? What if the hunter's name was stricken from the record books and the animal was the only honor found in Boone & Crocket / Pope & Young, etc.? There would never be any acknowledgement of you, as a hunter, associated with such a record breaking animal.[/quote]
s
BINGO, that is the actual solution, and the prestigious Boone & Crockett Club has contemplated that exact issue more than once, And It Gets VETOED every time it is brought up.

The problem lies in the concept that Life, in and of itself does not provide the level of Competition that Todays human males require.

Notice since the end of WWII, humans have found a way to turn practically every aspect in their life into some form of competition that someone HAS to win regardless of any cost, monetarily or otherwise.

I personally do not see that changing.

Philip, no one wants the bubble burst but with all things that are not sustainable it will come to an abrupt end which won't benefit anybody.
Do you honestly believe they are using their own money? Really?
I don't like getting ripped off and that is exactly what is happening. When accountants turn mega farmers overnight and make enough money in this short space of time to afford to buy their children helicopters, well that is concerning, because as you say running a game farm is hard work and these guys are doing it very easily.

Snav, Ok help me out here, who's money are they using? Lots of people made allot of money good for them!! unless they had death loss most farmers made good money What is SO concerning about someone buying a chopper?? Some guys buy race cars, fancy houses, get them self expensive girlfriends so what.

Now I also read on here about bribes, corruption money laundering hell it sounds like the breeders are worst than drug dealers.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE FIGHTING OUR OWN!!

We have heard all the same statements - it's none of your business, hunting and ranching is tough ect.

I don't see why ar members cannot ask or discuss the issue of game breeding. It's a financial issue tied to African hunting. No different that discussing Tanzania air charter rates.

Besides I like seeing asset bubbles - confirms my beliefs in the greedy irrationality of man.

Still no one has shown how the cash flows from these prize breeding animals actually add up. Maybe the right metric the one used in every asset bubble is comp sales.

Let's see how long this bubble last - the 22lr bubble in the US is approaching 3 years.

Mike

The bubble will last as long as trophy costs continue to rise and US and European hunters are willing to continue blindly paying higher and higher prices to support the bubble.

But like every bubble sooner or later you reach the top of the roller coaster and then... Yeee Haaa.

Is part of the issue that the game breeders look at the US$ prices the outfitters charge in their fee list - ad demand a bigger slice of the pie? Thereby driving the inflation in that market?

I know this has happened elsewhere. The breeders and landowners dont take into account the costs of the outfitter.

In general I am quite ok with the Genetic Meddling. This genetic meddling has helped to create the modern cow which is more disease resistant, grows faster and fatter and has become a staple food source. Genetic meddling has resulted in short stalk wheat as well.

I don't even have a problem with genetic game ranch farming. While not exactly the same, this type of farming helps propagate the species in better health, even in some cases saving the species (Scimitar Horned Oryx, until the greenies got hold it). For that matter, in some areas that's really the best way to make sure there is sufficient breed stock and genetics to keep a herd healthy.

It seems that the core issue in all of this is that we, as hunters, want better game, bigger challenges, bigger trophies. Attaining this can be accomplished two ways:

1. Spend countless dollars chasing game in remote areas, hiring specialized guides to track and tail them and by spending a lot of time in the field. This is not unlike the Spider Elk on the Barnes ads. That may have been a natural Elk but darned if the guide service didn't have trackers on that elk for weeks on end so they knew where it was when the time came to hunt it.

2. Go to a game farm that specializes in these magnificent mutant monsters. And pay a bunch of money to do it. This method certainly saves in the time department...but has the cost factor.

Actually, let me rephrase slightly: we want bigger, better trophies...but we don't want to pay more for them. At least that's what I think I keep reading on this thread.

Bearing in mind the simple laws of supply and demand, as long as we demand a certain type of supply the cost will continue to rise until an equilibrium is reached where cost contains the demand equation given current supply.

The way I see it, the best answer is to try and contain demand. Game animals are to some extent a limited resource. The more limited or exclusive, the higher the cost. Remove demand and costs will plummet. We know this from the plight of the Elephant: remove its value and it becomes a Six Ton Cockroach.

The only way I can think that will contain the cost side of the equation is to somehow affect demand. Or reduce the demand for the exclusive. My proposal (*which has been shot down by B&C, P&Y, as noted by Crazyhorse) would be to remove the name from the Trophy and allow the Trophy to stand on its own glory. This would reduce demand from ego driven pursuit and while not a complete answer could in fact reduce the cost to some extent.

I'm reminded of my first hunt in Africa. We saw a nice, mature Impala with one horn growing almost straight down. My first thought was "Cull that thing". My PH said "No, I know some Europeans who would pay big money for that trophy!".

Demand is different world around.

On the other side of the equation: why should we believe the suppliers shouldn't be able to profit and have the same sumptuous life that we all aspire? As a rule, we all supply some good that people are willing to buy...and we charge for those goods & services appropriately. As long as demand exists at a certain level, we get to charge a certain price.

All of this comes full circle: until we see demand drop off, costs will continue to rise. The only question is how long will it go before we cry uncle?

Actually, the only thing this industry has really done wrong is a gross violation of the trade descriptions act. 'Live shooting ranges' or 'free range slaughterhouses' would be more apt.

I don't see why I, as someone who enjoys hunting, needs to stick up for up for something I hardly recognise as hunting. Thats just my opinion by why not hold a vote on it.

To steal a quote'We're all in the same boat it's just a pity some are shooting holes in the bottom of the boat.'

Everyone has to determine what financial group they are in on hunts that they purchase.

Everyone also has to determine what their sense of morality is when it comes to fair chase.

To me the spider bull was taken with the same lack of fair chase that killing a lion in a 640 acre pasture in South Africa was done with.

I won't judge a man for his choice of weapon, the size of the property, or the amount of people and money he can throw at hunting. I am enough of a Christian that me judging someone isn't something I normally think to do.

I probably wouldn't get myself involved in a situation like the spider bull, and while I can see me shooting a put and take lion, it would be under the auspices far closer to what I would consider fair chase than a square mile pasture and released the night before.

If it is legal, and you want to do it, don't let anyone else be your guidepost. It is your hunt, I am pretty sick of hunting shows crossing legal boundaries. As far as ethics or morals, that is between you and your own personal turmoil and God.

quote:

Originally posted by Big Wonderful Wyoming:
Everyone has to determine what financial group they are in on hunts that they purchase.

Everyone also has to determine what their sense of morality is when it comes to fair chase.

To me the spider bull was taken with the same lack of fair chase that killing a lion in a 640 acre pasture in South Africa was done with.

I won't judge a man for his choice of weapon, the size of the property, or the amount of people and money he can throw at hunting. I am enough of a Christian that me judging someone isn't something I normally think to do.

I probably wouldn't get myself involved in a situation like the spider bull, and while I can see me shooting a put and take lion, it would be under the auspices far closer to what I would consider fair chase than a square mile pasture and released the night before.

If it is legal, and you want to do it, don't let anyone else be your guidepost. It is your hunt, I am pretty sick of hunting shows crossing legal boundaries. As far as ethics or morals, that is between you and your own personal turmoil and God.

I am scratching my head here and wondering what on earth you talking about and how the two examples you listed can be related? I guess I cannot figure out if you are or are not judging. This must be due to my poor reading comprehension.....

Ok,

How's this?

I could care less that the spider bull event happened, or that someone uses that as their moral reins.

If a guy wants to kill a canned lion in a small area that's also his business.

This is one of those typical concepts that is constantly talked about on AR. This person did this or that, and the poster approves or more than likely doesn't.

The high cost of exotic freaks doesn't affect me in the least. If I was on a safari and someone offered me one and I could afford it and wanted it, I'd shoot it.

I am not judging, and I think this trial by peers nonsense has to stop.

Freaks, high fence, spider bulls, governor tags, bowhunting, blah blah blah it doesn't matter. Save hunting and quit fighting.

Sometimes I write in rants like everyone else.

Point that seems to be floating around concerns individual beliefs about what is and what is not Hunting, and how to get hunters as a group to stop attacking each other over their INDIVIDUAL beliefs.

My point was that it is funny money, ghost trading or what ever term you want to use. You have a group of people who trade amongst themselves to chase the perceived value of something though the roof, they then benefit from this when unsuspecting individuals try to get into the market. Think J Arthur Brown, Jordan Belfort, Bilzerian etc. did they use their own money to get rather wealthy?
The people who will be holding the stinky shitty package at the end of the day are the ones that truly believe an ex rugby player who sells himself as a super Christian, that gets down on one knee to pray, just before he tries to rip peoples heads off for 80 minutes, really did buy a 25 inch impala ram for R 300 000.
A sucker is born every minute.

quote:

Originally posted by Big Wonderful Wyoming:
Ok,

How's this?

I could care less that the spider bull event happened, or that someone uses that as their moral reins.

If a guy wants to kill a canned lion in a small area that's also his business.

This is one of those typical concepts that is constantly talked about on AR. This person did this or that, and the poster approves or more than likely doesn't.

The high cost of exotic freaks doesn't affect me in the least. If I was on a safari and someone offered me one and I could afford it and wanted it, I'd shoot it.

I am not judging, and I think this trial by peers nonsense has to stop.

Freaks, high fence, spider bulls, governor tags, bowhunting, blah blah blah it doesn't matter. Save hunting and quit fighting.

Sometimes I write in rants like everyone else.

Got it

quote:

Originally posted by Snav:
............ an ex rugby player who sells himself as a super Christian, that gets down on one knee to pray, just before he tries to rip peoples heads off for 80 minutes, really did buy a 25 inch impala ram for R 300 000.

[shrug] It's the game they play in Heaven....

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

The South African prices make no rational cash flow sense. But there is always another angle. Lot of ANC people in the game farm and game breeding programs. Maybe its like rolex watches and gambling in Macau - money transfer mechanisms.

Mike

Never thought of that angle.

Very interesting point.

Snav, Man but this really bother you, did you loose some money some where??? if not move on nobody asked you to invest! and what the hell have being a Christian and playing Rugby HAVE TO DO WITH THIS?

Snav, AND the rugby player WAS the seller of that impala!! NOT THE BUYER, get your story strait before you post things on a open form!

From Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/graph...ame-in-south-africa/

From WSJ

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB...04579445382496815614

There is no way a 40 mil. rand buffalo or 27.3 mil. rand impala make any financial sense as a asset generating cash flows. Makes perfect sense as a asset to transfer money and support corruption.

Seller of impala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Ramaphosa

Buyer of Buffalo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Rupert

Connect the dots and hunting and shooting the freak buffalo, implala, lion becomes the joke. The real money is paying for brides and corruption in the form of freak animal sales.

And with such swell fellows in the game breeding business - do we really have to worry about anyone banning hunting.

Game breeding and maybe even game farms appear to be the perfect vehicle to transfer money around in South African political circles.

Now we will hear we should all be united for hunting, the anti are going to take away our rights and none of your business. But given the fine chaps - ANC politicians - involved in the money part of the south african game breeding business hunting/shooting in south africa is safe for a long time.


Mike

Maybe one of the south african ph and outfitters who buys sells and organizes hunts that involve animals purchased at auctions can provide some details.

Are animal purchase at auction subject to VAT or any form of tax ?

Are they considered livestock and subject to lower or no tax rates ?

Are sales proceeds and cash transfers registered with any reporting agencies ?

We are all looking at the next guy who buys hunt for the black impala or the white lion or the golden flaked impala - when in reality the crazy prices serve much different economic motives.


http://www.theguardian.com/wor...ts-game-south-africa

http://www.businessinsider.com...-game-farming-2015-9
http://news.kuwaittimes.net/pdf/2015/sep/04/p40.pdf

Mike

quote:

.... when in reality the crazy prices serve much different economic motives.

Yeah, personal ones.

Philip, dishonest people bother me. Whether he bought it or sold it, my point is the same, but it seems to be eluding you, so I won't even try anymore

Sanv, the wonderful thing about this form is you can express your self like we all do, but you also got to state fecks you keep on making these statements? dishonest people bother me too but PLEASE INLIGHT ME WHO WAS DISHONEST???

Nobody Phillip, everyone in this hunting and game industry are all perfectly honest people just making an honest living.
Happy now?

Snav, I have lost you honestly don't know what your point is, I went thru all your treads again, maybe take up some other sport you obviously have some massive issues with hunting and or game ranching. And all of us hate dishonest people but normally when I say something like that I would back what I said you have not...

Phillip, sarcasm.

My stubborn genes are making me reply.[excuse the pun]
This is MY opinion on the matter Phillip, some agree, some don't, like everything in life.

Until someone can draw me a picture and explain the money trail and how exactly the returns on these "investments" work and explain how they make their money back, transparently from a R10 million Kudu, I stick to MY opinion. And don't just give me the "bloodline bullshit argument" And that is that this is being artificially manipulated by the key players to serve themselves and this is having a negative impact on the overall industry. [In SA].
Hunting is something I have done my whole life, and like a lot of people I would like it to continue for a long time so that my son can enjoy it too. So when situations like this arise and I smell a rat, I don't just smile and think it is wonderful I question it. No one has yet to give me a straight answer on how it works.

When it comes to the rugby analogy Phillip, advertising is used throughout the world to sell things, right? Either by pretty little things with big boobs or celebrities. And in this case he is a hero to a certain culture in SA. And it is MY opinion this has once again been used to artificially inject false information into the industry.
I get you don't agree with me. That's fine.
If someone can provide me with the info that shows that all of these business dealings are above board, I will apologise on this forum for having the cat by the balls and I might even drive up to Alldays to buy you a drink, but until then I stick with MY opinion.

At the risk of beating a dead horse....

One of the mega game auction houses has postponed their annual auction to 2018. No specific date set.

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
I do not understand why you have a problem with this.

Farmers can breed whatever they wish, and if there is no demand, they will stop.

No one is forced to shoot these animals - or any animal for that matter.

People do it by choice.

It is their money, and they can spend it anyway they please.

I have heard of two guys that came to a Texas hill country game ranch and they spent two and a half hours there taking two Boone and Crockett quality bucks and spending $45,000 in the process. From what I can gather about guys like this is that they are afraid to leave the businesses they own for the time it takes to enjoy a proper hunt, say five or six days. They think their business will go south without them there 24/7; not a quality life in my opinion.