Thursday, Apr. 15, 2004



South Africans went to the polls Wednesday -- but the vote -- which continues to trickle in, may hand the ANC one party rule and be the beginning of the end for consitutional democracy.

There is no doubt the ANC -- the African National Congress -- will win handlily and may surpass the 67 percent vote, giving their parliamentary majority the right to change the constitution at whim.



The ANC, a long time Marxist group once clandestinely supported by the Soviet Union, has firmly consoldiated power and may win all nine of the country's provinces, including the KwaZulu Natal province, where the Inkatha Freedom Party narrowly won in 1999.





According to the New York Times, as many as 18 million South Africans voted in the polls Wednesday to choose a new parliament and provincial legislatures.



The final tally is not expected before Friday.



The outcome, however is not in doubt, the Times reported, noting that pre-election polls forecast that the African National Congress could sweep as many as seven in 10 votes throughout South Africa, potentially exceeding the record 66 percent the party won in 1999.



The A.N.C. has ruled South Africa since its first democratic leader, Nelson Mandela, led the party to victory in 1994.



There are only two other major national political parties, the Democratic Alliance, a white-led party that took only 8.6 percent of the vote in 1999, and the Inkatha Freedom Party,(IFP) a regional power with strong ties to ethnic Zulus in KwaZulu-Natal province.



Movement From Democracy



President Thabo Mbeki is moving the country away from democracy -- and critics say he is following in the footisteps of neighboring Zimbabwe where President Robert Mugabe has used the democratic process to establish one party rule and a dictatorship.



Last week, Mr. Mbeki ridiculed "the fictional threat of a one-party state," calling it the creation of a white minority whose survival depends on ginning up opposition to what he called the A.N.C.'s multiracial coalition.



Tony Leon, who heads the Democratic Alliance, told the Times that the A.N.C. was becoming "a de facto one-party state" at great risk of what he called "Putinization" -- the slow erosion of democratic freedoms by a party whose power is hard to resist.



The transition from apartheid to democracy has been a painful one, and the results have been far from positive so far.



South Africa has a staggering unemployment rate. Moreover, about 5.3 million South Africans are infected with AIDS. The gap between rich and poor is huge with more than a third of the black population still living below poverty line.



A government commission study reported that South Africa is one of the countries with most unequal distributions of income in the world. Saidvone liberal South African "Things simply cannot go on like this."

May Fail?

One Man, One Vote, One Time. Remember that?

Show me a country with a large uneducated class where democracy has succeeded? This is the blind spot of American foreign policy..."if you are not like us, there is something wrong with you and if you don't fix it, well we'll help you with money, and if that doesn't work, we might just have to come over there and bomb some common sense into you".

Democracy is for the middle class. If there is no middle class, other forms of government predominate ie communism, socialism and fascism.

It is not a democracy, so how can it fail?

Anybody with any sense knows where SA is headed, and knew it in 1994 (?). I can hardly believe anyone is so stupid as to have ever thought otherwise. Show me the historical evidence where any African country is stably democratic. There is only one solution in SA, but that ain't going to happen.

I believe Zambia is one of the only Southern african countries that doesn't have a seasonal coup d'etat and has never had a revolution etc.
Can anyone fill us in on the situation in Botswana, the most prosperous country in the region?
I think I see a trend here, all countries like Namibia, Zambia, Botswana with very small (comparatively) populations don't suffer the hardships of countries such as Ethiopia (65million) and RSA (45 million) etc.
I wish, as a famous Indian politician once said, 'that it would rain condoms!'

Actually Botswana is the shining exception that nobody wants to emulate. There is, however, a unique confluence of circumstances that make it the exception. The country has very few people relative to its size, the population is actually falling due to aids, it is relatively wealthy due to very rich diamond deposits; there are only two major ethnic groups (excluding the whites who are very much in the minority). The first leader of Botswana, Sir Seretse Khama, set the tone by having a white wife. By all accounts he was a wise man and a good leader. Owing to the relative stability and lack of crime, Botswana has a booming tourist industry ($10K for a photo safari, anyone?). The sore spots are the San (Bushmen) are getting the short end of the stick, gun control is pretty stringent (reloading is illegal!), hunting is tolerated but only to a limited degree, and there is no private ownership of land, only ?99 year leases. Because of the peaceful and early transition to independence, there were never any AK47-waving marxist-trained politicians.

If anyone wants to take a closer look, I can set you up with an outstanding and inexpensive plains game hunt. Spice that up with a "hot pursuit" leopard hunt if you want an unforgettable experience.

It seems that the Zimbabwe model is catching on rather than the Botswana model. Namibia is going down the same redistribution of land black hole. And SA may follow suit to placate the masses by giving the remaining whites another kick in the face, even if it is hardly the smartest strategy for the economy.