For those of you planning trips in 2009, has the high price of fuel changed your plans?

I went to Namibia in 2006:

Ticket $1,750
Shipping Trophies $1,600

Checking around I find the same ticket going for $5,000 - $7,000. I figure shipping animals back will be close to the same, since it was in 2006.

The cost of the hunts have not changed much, but getting there is getting prohibitive.

Somethings wrong with that pricing. It hasn't gone up nearly that much.

To RSA from Dallas in 2003 was $1600 and shipping was $375. 2007 was $2200 and $650
Heck the import fees were $375 in 03 and this year was $533.
EVERYTHING is going up!

Well, if I don't get my first safari done in 2009, I don't see it becoming any less expensive in 2010.

I'm booking now!

quote:

Originally posted by bo-n-aro:
To RSA from Dallas in 2003 was $1600 and shipping was $375. 2007 was $2200 and $650
Heck the import fees were $375 in 03 and this year was $533.
EVERYTHING is going up!

except my income!!!!!!!!!!

Travelocity has flights from Los Angeles to Windoek starting at $2727.

Wife and I went for $1039 in April 2008 round trip...gotta shop around people....However, I haven't got my trophies shipped back yet...still waiting.

By 2009, Mugabe will be gone and the price of hunting in Zim (and the neighboring countries) will go up quite sharply, esp. DG.

I am also quite sure that many of the private ranches in SA will be "taken" in the next 5 years....so the era of inexpensive ranch hunts in RSA will be over. The new bill, recently tabled in parliament, is an ominous sign. It allows the minister to take land by fiat without full compensation. And given that the ANC is rapidly losing support, we all know what happens next.

You have to bear in mind that the numbers of land-hungry people in these countries is growing fast. At 5% pop growth, the pop doubles every 14 years. These people are not being absorbed into the urban industrial sector...there really isn't one to speak of. Each family needs 10 acres and a mud hut to survive, as is the situation in Zim today.

Botswana is going to shut down in the next couple of years.

Namibia I think will keep going, as well as Tanzania, Zambia, Moz. There may be one or two countries that "open up" as well. But with growing demand and declining supply, prices will certainly be headed north.

And yes, the cost of airline travel will go up. Used to be $1000 was the norm. In 2007/8, $2000 was the norm. For 2009/10, $3000-3500.

So the days of a safari under $10K all in are numbered...just a season or two of those hunts left. The new reality: within 5 years, PG hunt $20-25K. DG hunt $50-150K.

Africa will again be the playground of the rich and super-rich.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
By 2009, Mugabe will be gone and the price of hunting in Zim (and the neighboring countries) will go up quite sharply, esp. DG.

I am also quite sure that many of the private ranches in SA will be "taken" in the next 5 years....so the era of inexpensive ranch hunts in RSA will be over. The new bill, recently tabled in parliament, is an ominous sign. It allows the minister to take land by fiat without full compensation. And given that the ANC is rapidly losing support, we all know what happens next.

You have to bear in mind that the numbers of land-hungry people in these countries is growing fast. At 5% pop growth, the pop doubles every 14 years. These people are not being absorbed into the urban industrial sector...there really isn't one to speak of. Each family needs 10 acres and a mud hut to survive, as is the situation in Zim today.

Botswana is going to shut down in the next couple of years.

Namibia I think will keep going, as well as Tanzania, Zambia, Moz. There may be one or two countries that "open up" as well. But with growing demand and declining supply, prices will certainly be headed north.

And yes, the cost of airline travel will go up. Used to be $1000 was the norm. In 2007/8, $2000 was the norm. For 2009/10, $3000-3500.

So the days of a safari under $10K all in are numbered...just a season or two of those hunts left. The new reality: within 5 years, PG hunt $20-25K. DG hunt $50-150K.

Africa will again be the playground of the rich and super-rich.

And now for the other side of the coin.

Safaris are at an all time high largely led by the baby boomers in the US which are 1) in their peak earning years 2) are the last large hunting generation in the US.

The weak economy will lead to a decrease in safaris especially as the airfare rates go up.

We have seen the peak on Safari numbers and as baby boomers age, retire, and lose their health their spending on hunting will decrease dramatically. Not only is generation X vastly smaller numbers wise the percentage of gen Xers that hunt is also far smalller.

Safaris have also already reached a point where small increases in price will cause huge numbers of people not to go. Safari pricing is not inelastic.

I, for the life of me, can not figure out why people don't understand that an expense or item that has increased dramatically in a short period of time is far LESS likely to increase at that rate going forward. Trees don't grow to the sky is the expression! Those predictiong safari prices sound like Miami or Las Vegas condo buyers in the spring of 2007! Instead of doubling they are now worth half. Tech stock buyers in early 2000 made the same mistake.

It is far more likely that things that have appreciated at an unsupportable rate will be LESS expensive in the near future, not more.

Hunting numbers have been decreasing steadily for years and will continue to. Hunting spending has been increasing (all time high) as baby boomers do what they always wanted to. Those days are numbered and soon hunting spending AND hunting numbers will decrease, probably dramatically.

quote:

Originally posted by S.K. Snyder:
For those of you planning trips in 2009, has the high price of fuel changed your plans?

I went to Namibia in 2006:

Ticket $1,750
Shipping Trophies $1,600

Checking around I find the same ticket going for $5,000 - $7,000. I figure shipping animals back will be close to the same, since it was in 2006.

The cost of the hunts have not changed much, but getting there is getting prohibitive.

Flights I have been seeing are roughly $2,500

Geoff:

You may be right but I don't think so. African hunting is supported by a global client base, not just an American one. For every American you run into in a hunting camp, there is at least one Russian, German, Italian or Spaniard these days. And just wait til it becomes hip in Asia. We are already seeing hunters from India with big bucks.

It's also a niche market. The most wealthy slice of the hunting community are the clients, not the average hunter. And in almost every Western country, the ranks of the wealthy are growing. So even if the ranks of hunters shrink, I don't see the ranks of wealthy (upper middle and above) hunters shrinking. The baby boomers you speak of are not going to stop hunting in retirement, quite the opposite. They will have the money and the time.

There's another factor, which will hurt American hunters in particular. Many outfitters are now pricing in Euros, they don't want our weak dollars. Only in Argentina and Zim does the dollar still get some respect.

So with people coming to Africa from all corners of the globe, and with the number of wealthy hunters stable or even increasing, I don't see demand falling off a cliff.

On the other hand, I do see supply diminishing due to population pressures and land reform in at least 2 if not 3 of the big provider countries. In order to ration the available supply, prices will have to go up. That's how things work in a market economy.

So with demand holding up and supply going down vs. where we are today, I see prices going up a lot.

The Zim political situation will turn and those folks will no longer see the need to discount their hunts. Zim is the only place holding DG prices in check.

Airfares are a different matter, due to fuel. Again a global market. And there I agree, oil prices will fall back as supply is stimulated and demand moderates due to conservation/switching/technology and in the short term, recession in some of the major developed economies; but never to $20 again, and when it peaks again in five years or so, it will go over $200 as we will be on the downslope of production for sure by then. Again, less supply and more demand from the industrializing countries in South America and Asia ... and perhaps even in some African countries.

So I stick by my prediction. Affordable African hunts will become an endangered species.

SK,
Where did you find prices for Air Namibia? I just checked their web page and can't get past May 2009. I'm planning on June-July 2009 and can't get prices!
Robert

You are unlikely to find posted airline prices more than about eight months out, less in some instances.

Cheaptickets.com has always seemed to have the best selection to southern Africa, but there are certainly other sites you might use. The booking agents like Kathi often can make earlier reservations and on more advantageous terms than the websites. Sometimes it's a coin toss.