I see bad bob has got to china and they have agreed to help him out & give him money in exchange for minerals etc. SUPRISE so we should all run out and buy products made in china??

China is aggressively trying to get access to Zim's platinum. On our flight from Jo'burg to Harare, there was a high level delegation of Chinese going to meet Bob about the platinum. They were greeted at the Harare airport by a camera crew and several Zimbabwe government officials.

Regards,

Terry

quote:

Originally posted by butchloc:
SUPRISE so we should all run out and buy products made in china??

Wal-Mart would like that!

.

China is transforming itself from a communist state to an authoritarian/mercantilist state. Keya mong their objectives is to acquire basic materials. This explains theri recent acquisitions or attemted acquisitions of oil producers and primary metal producers. Africa is the most likely venue for them to expand to.
This is largely due to the collapsing economies and lack of any credible African military power. I think the EUs recent pronouncements of aid etc to Africa are just a cover for efforts to oppose China in Africa.

quote:

Originally posted by Mikelravy:
China is transforming itself from a communist state to an authoritarian/mercantilist state. Keya mong their objectives is to acquire basic materials. This explains theri recent acquisitions or attemted acquisitions of oil producers and primary metal producers. Africa is the most likely venue for them to expand to.
This is largely due to the collapsing economies and lack of any credible African military power. I think the EUs recent pronouncements of aid etc to Africa are just a cover for efforts to oppose China in Africa.

BINGO

What strategic use does China have for platinum?

quote:

Originally posted by ALF:

At a time when communism has fallen by the wayside in the USSR and the cold war has come to an end, why is China arming itslef? For what reason is it actively building the largest standing military in the world ? A question I saw asked in Time Magazine not to long ago..... Makes one think?

It does not take much thinking. First, China wants to take over Taiwan. Next, China will use Taiwan to control currently active Pacific shipping lanes and attempt to turn S. Korea and Japan into vassal states. China will also attempt to enforce its spurious sovereignty claim to the entire South China Sea (international waters) to a point more than 1000 miles south of the southernmost tip of Chinese territory. There has also been a map circulating in government offices in Beijing showing the 'Kazakhstan Province' of the People's Republic of China. Of course Kazakhstan has significant oil reserves and in some ways is the new Kuwait.

why do you think China is not opposing North
Korea as western govt. wish they would?

China wants North Korea to be a pit bull in its front yard. China absolutely does not want the Kim government to fall because millions of refugees would flood into China. China does not want North Korea to merge with South Korea because the billions of dollars that South Korea now invests in China would be invested into North Korea instead. China wants North Korea to stay just as it is right now. No change.

And we send them dollars as fast as we can. Amarican business intrest and others sell that
"we can reform them through trade" crap so we can pay for their army that can only be intended
for us. There is no other world power to challenge them.

quote:

Originally posted by Muletrain:
What strategic use does China have for platinum?

The same as we do. (see below)

The next great war may well be a war of resources. China is "tying up" all they can and putting themselves in a position to disrupt what they can't tie up.

The following is a brief list of some of the usages of platinum and the PGMs:
Its primary usage is in pollution devices, (ie, catalytic converters, industrial smoke stack scrubbers, etc.)
It is widely used in the jewelry industry. This is probably the second largest usage of the metal.
It is used in the manufacturing of explosives like TNT.
It is a key element in the processing of nitric acids.
It is used in the manufacturing of nitrogen based fertilizers.
It is used to make aqua regis, a powerful acid used in the chemical and scientific community.
The platinum metals are used in the processing of eyeglasses.
Platinum is the element used to tint the glass used in office buildings.
It is one of the key catalysts used in the petrochemical industry, in processing of unleaded gasoline and jet fuel.
Petrochemical usages include the manufacturing of plastics and polyester.
It's used to make colored paints.
The platinum metals are used extensively in the pharmaceutical industry in the development of anti-cancer and many other drugs.
Rhodium, the rarest of the PGMs, is the key catalyst in the processing of Tylenol.
It's used to manufacture other medical devices like endoscopes and catheters.
Because of it's unmatched and stable electrical conductivity, it is used extensively in the manufacturing of pacemakers.
It is a key component of jet and rocket engines.
It is used in extremely sensitive scientific devices like light and oxygen sensors.
It is part of the coating process for hard drives and other high density computer data storage devices.
It is an integral part of the communications network like the telephone and internet fiber optics system.
It is the key component in the manufacturing of LCD (liquid crystal displays) used in lap top computer and other small display electronic devices.
The use of platinum in the computer industry increased 1000% in 1994.

quote:

Originally posted by butchloc:
I see bad bob has got to china and they have agreed to help him out & give him money in exchange for minerals etc. SUPRISE so we should all run out and buy products made in china??

Guests

For those uninformed or too young to remember, or those with blinkers on, just a quick flash back in time ..

In the days of the old Rhodesian Bush war 60/70,s whom do you think trained and funded the TERRORISTS in Rhodesia ///

Sorry to be cynical and blunt but it was the Chinese /// also the Russins of cource BUT since then the Ruskies have been cracked and Communisim is a spent force I believe in Russia !!

The Chinese are still communist and so it is absolutely no surprise to me at least what is transpiring

Take care

Peter

I was told a few weeks ago that the number of Chinese in Zim are now up to around 40.000. Twice as many as the current white population.

I was also told by a man who had been involved with mining, that Zim has one of the largest amounts of Lithium (or was it Cobalt or platinum as someone mentioned above? Or something simular? At any rate a precious metal used in computor technology and hi tech stuff that will be needed more and more.). Thus, if they control Zim to a certain extent, they will apperantly be controlling this vital world market.

EDIT

quote:

The Chinese are widely reported to covet a stake in Zimbabwe's platinum mines, which have the world's second largest reserves, and Mr. Mugabe's government has hinted at a desire to accommodate them.

A big Thank You to Terrys article for clearing up my foggy memory!

quote:

Originally posted by Balla Balla:

quote:

Originally posted by butchloc:
I see bad bob has got to china and they have agreed to help him out & give him money in exchange for minerals etc. SUPRISE so we should all run out and buy products made in china??

Guests



For those uninformed or too young to remember, or those with blinkers on, just a quick flash back in time ..

In the days of the old Rhodesian Bush war 60/70,s whom do you think trained and funded the TERRORISTS in Rhodesia ///

Sorry to be cynical and blunt but it was the Chinese /// also the Russins of cource BUT since then the Ruskies have been cracked and Communisim is a spent force I believe in Russia !!

The Chinese are still communist and so it is absolutely no surprise to me at least what is transpiring

Take care

Peter

I remember the 5th Brigade, Shit dont forget Korea,China"s lap dog. Someone help me out here. Dosen,t Zim have large deposites of
Chromium? I read they did at on time.

JOHANNESBURG, July 23 - His new 25-bedroom palace is clad in midnight-blue Chinese roof tiles. His air force trains on Chinese jets. His subjects wear Chinese shoes, ride Chinese buses and, lately, zip around the country in Chinese propjets. He has even urged his countrymen to learn Mandarin and nurture a taste for Chinese cuisine.

That President Robert G. Mugabe rules Zimbabwe, which resembles China about as much as African corn porridge tastes like moo shu pork, is irrelevant. Tightening his embrace of all things Chinese, the 81-year-old Mr. Mugabe, Zimbabwe's canny autocrat for 25 years, arrived in Beijing on Saturday for six days of talks with China's leaders, led by President Hu Jintao.

If this all seems nonsensical, however, it is anything but. Shunned by Western leaders and investors for his government's human rights policies, Zimbabwe has begun a determined campaign to hitch its plummeting fortunes to China's rising star.

Mr. Mugabe calls the policy Look East and has relentlessly promoted it as another way to thumb Zimbabwe's nose at its old colonial ruler, Britain, and Britain's allies, like the United States. The sheer intensity of the pro-China drive has stirred resentment among average Zimbabweans and raised eyebrows among the elite, some of whom question whether Mr. Mugabe is simply replacing British political domination with a more up-to-date Asian economic rule.

But it is a hand-in-glove fit for the Chinese, who are steadily extending their political and economic influence across Africa, particularly in regions rich in oil and minerals.

The Chinese are widely reported to covet a stake in Zimbabwe's platinum mines, which have the world's second largest reserves, and Mr. Mugabe's government has hinted at a desire to accommodate them. The mines' principal operator denies being pressured to deal with the Chinese, but negotiations are under way to sell a stake to as-yet-unidentified Zimbabweans. The operator has postponed major spending on the mines, citing political uncertainty.

Meanwhile, from Angolan oil to Zambian copper mines, China is investing billions of dollars securing access to resources for its fast-growing economy. And because they show few scruples about their partners' human rights policies, the Chinese are becoming entrenched in some states, including Zimbabwe and Sudan, that bridle at Western criticism.

While the talk is of democracy sweeping the continent, some experts believe that China's rising influence here may power its blend of free-market dictatorship, particularly among African leaders already reluctant to turn over power democratically.

"We might see the Chinese political system appealing to a lot of states whose elites and regimes are more in line with that sort of thinking," said Chris Maroleng, a Zimbabwe expert at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. "It's really a conflict of two systems, one based on regime security and the other, almost Western, which talks of human security - good governance and human rights."

The Chinese have been friendly with Zimbabwe since 1980, when they and Mr. Mugabe, who led the newly independent state, shared much the same Marxist ideology. But in the last two or three years, as Zimbabwe's economy has edged ever closer to collapse, the friendship has turned on investments and goods that Mr. Mugabe's government was increasingly unable to find elsewhere.

Some exchanges amount to good will: China, for example, donated the blue tiles adorning the $13 million palace Mr. Mugabe is building for himself in Borrowdale, a comparatively wealthy Harare suburb.

Others are more significant. Chinese companies have won contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars to provide hydroelectric generators for the national power authority, run by Mr. Mugabe's brother-in-law. China's AVIC aircraft plant has sold or given three 60-seat propjets to the beleaguered Air Zimbabwe, replacing aging Boeing 737's that were regularly grounded due to mechanical problems. China's First Automobile Works has agreed to sell the Zimbabwean government 1,000 commuter buses to upgrade its falling-apart municipal fleet.

China won a contract last year to farm 386 square miles of land seized from white commercial farmers during the land-confiscation program begun by Mr. Mugabe in 2000. Zimbabwe's air force has bought $200 million in Chinese-made Karakorum-8 trainer jets, a copy of the British Hawk trainers that the air force has had to ground because of parts shortages.

Rumors abound that China has sold Zimbabwe's internal-security apparatus water cannons to subdue protesters and bugging equipment to monitor traffic on the nation's three cellphone networks.

Still, the full extent of the investments is unknown - and, in some cases, is a state secret. Zimbabwe says trade with China amounted to $100 million in the first three months of this year. Mr. Mugabe says China is close to becoming the nation's leading foreign investor, a claim that seems likely given the headlong flight of Western capital.

Mr. Maroleng and others say that many deals are hidden in a welter of barter arrangements and front companies, reflecting Zimbabwe's inability to pay China with hard currency. China is widely reported, for example, to have taken a share of Zimbabwe's tobacco harvest in exchange for equipment.

What the ordinary Zimbabwean reaps from this relationship is also unclear. Visits by Asian tourists to Zimbabwe leapt by one fourth from 2002 to 2004 - thus Mr. Mugabe's exhortation to Zimbabweans to learn Mandarin and cook Chinese-style - but overall tourism remains well below peak years because Zimbabwe long ago lost its popularity among Europeans.

Zimbabweans complain, sometimes bitterly, that their new Chinese buses break down with alarming regularity and that the Chinese goods that flood stores and roadside stalls are so shoddy as to be worthless. Indeed, they have coined a term for the phenomenon: zhing-zhong.

"To call something zhing-zhong means that it is substandard," said Eldred Masunugure, the chairman of the political science department at the University of Zimbabwe in Harare. "The resentment of the Chinese is not only widespread; it's deeply rooted. It's affecting even other Chinese-looking people, like the Japanese."

Professor Masunugure and others say that Harare's few Japanese residents complain of being taunted and called zhing-zhong. Harare newspapers report that high-yielding robberies of Harare's Chinese residents are on the upswing.

A solution, however, is in the wings: in a meeting last month, China and Zimbabwe signed a letter of intent to cooperate in law enforcement and the judiciary. Atop the list is a plan for China to train Zimbabweans in managing prisons.

"They have a fairly advanced prison system," Zimbabwe's justice minister, Patrick Chinamasa, told reporters. "We would also want to tap into that expertise."

Zimbabwe is richly endowed with mineral resources. Over 40 different types of minerals are mined in the country including some which provide strategic materials such as chromite, lithium, nickel and ferro-chrome. Mining contributes 6 percent to GDP, employs 7 percent of the country’s labour force and earns 40 percent of the foreign exchange. Mines and smelters purchase about one-third of all of Zimbabwe’s electrical energy supplies.

To boost the sector’s viability and competitiveness, government has undertaken various measures. These include re-capitalising the Mining Industry Loan Fund of small miners; supporting the re-capitalisation of critical mines such as Wankie Colliery; and availing resources in support of capitalising metallurgical services for skills development and acquisition of the necessary equipment in order to improve surveillance of exported minerals and metals.

The mining sector has great potential for investment with huge unexplored deposits on the Great Dyke. The major minerals are gold, chrome, asbestos, coal, iron ore, nickel, copper, diamonds and platinum.

At present a few large multinational mining groups and locally-owned enterprises produce the bulk of the mineral output. There are approximately 1,000 'operating mines' (mainly gold) worked by small companies, syndicates and individuals. Gold contributes about half the value of annual mineral production.

Defence Treaty? not far off.
China knows how to lock people up. Great partnership.

Lord have mercy on us! Looks like we're in for a long, long tit-for-tat after we're finished with the Mid-East. The communists have always wanted world-wide domination as it will enrich the party-elite and keep the masses from thinking about things they shouldn't. WWIII, here we come. What a scenario, what a nightmare.

quote:

Originally posted by ErikD:
the number of Chinese in Zim are now up to around 40.000.

They will never leave. But at least there will be some new restaurants.

quote:

They will never leave. But at least there will be some new restaurants.

Do you think they will serve sadza instead of rice?

Regards,

Terry

I can see it now: Sweet and Sour Warthog, Mongolian Buffalo, Cashew Francolin. . .

Well if you guys are QUICK and buy up billions of ZIM'S dollars and maybe some Yuan as well ( to hedge your bets) then when the exchange rate comes down again in Zim's you can make a killing on the forex markets ... Or am I in dreamland yet again (-:

Actually with one in every 5 people on earth being Chinese maybe we better join them instead of knocking them discretion might be better than valour !!!

BUT having said that .... I am a bit more at ease as the USA is building up it's strike power ( BIG TIME) on the island of GUAM just a couple of thousand kms North West of me in NZ so I am now sleeping a lot better at night, or is it maybe the RED WINE from the Borassa Valley where NitroX comes from in AUS that is doing the trick for me

Peter

Have you bought any pots and pans lately. Or really any goods of almost any variety. Dang near everything is made there. They need the raw materials to make all this stuff. Now we have shipped all the jobs over there 'cause it is cheaper. How tough will it be to turn the pots and pans factories into tank factories?
The population issue alone for them is very frightening. They are running out of clean water. They have enough babies every year to account for the entire population of the USA. Basically an unlimited number of soldiers. More being born and raised by the time the others might find misfortune. As another dictator once said, We need lebensroum.
With those kinds of numbers and the industrial might to equip them......
If you aren't a bit nervous you are not paying attention.

Good time to soak in Chinese language. It's only a matter of time now....., and the future looks so bright I got to wear SPF 2000 and pair of stylish welding goggles. No soldiers will be needed they are simply going to buy the West out.

quote:

Originally posted by 500grains:

quote:

Originally posted by ErikD:
the number of Chinese in Zim are now up to around 40.000.

They will never leave. But at least there will be some new restaurants.

Actually, we went to a Chinese restaurant in Harare a few weeks ago, and besides being filled with Chinese customers (always a good sign in a Chinese restaurant), the food was suprisingly good and the menu extensive! The waiter asked us though if we could leave his tip hidden under a magazine laying on the table so that no one else would see. Apparently, openly handed tips were usually confiscated by the Chinese owners, and not redistributed to the employees as promised...

quote:

Apparently, openly handed tips were usually confiscated by the Chinese owners, and not redistributed to the employees as promised...

The usual practice in Hong Kong, Singapore, Macau, China etc is the restaurant takes the entire "tip". Often it is a compulsory percentage add-onto the bill. The diners are asked to leave any small change on the table for the waiter/staff.

Another good reason to never encourage "tipping".

***

Someone claimed on AR in the last year, the Chinese are by far (by a multiple) the largest ethnic group of immigrants to Namibia as well.

The problem with many of these Asian cultures is they are 100% consumptive. They will kill and eat every wild thing in the area just like they have done at home. Or grind it into powder so the old men feel they are young again.

I have just finished visiting my inlaws in Zuhai and Wuhan, and am now at a meeting in Shanghai. In Zuhai, I saw a very interesting interview on TV involving a question of law that came up concerning the new constitutional protections of property rights, and the power of the state to exercise eminent domain to take property (with or without compensation) for the purposes of urban renewal. Such challenges may ultimately have more impact on rule of law than more visible protests ever could. This is maybe the first "challenge" I'll list.

China has a number of "challenges" (nice neutral word), including Taiwan, Korea, the rapid shift in economic power base, development, rapid growth in world economic power, etc. When Hu's gov't took over, the outgoing government left him with a new Governor of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK SAR). That governor was a hard liner. There were protests and very vocal complaints from a region used to much less hard-line treatment from their government. This was at a critical time for Taiwan. Taiwan has huge investments in mainland China. China doesn't want to damage those investments because they need continuing world trust for more capital development. Taiwan was facing elections and watched the HK SAR problems with great interest. Some folks in Taiwan are interested in reunification; some strongly oppose it. Tilting things one way or the other was a problem. As it was, Hu decided he had to support the governor to assert central authority, which tilted Taiwan in a way the government didn't want. After a moderately short period of time, the governor of HK SAR retired. As it stands, they cannot get too militant with Taiwan -- there is way too much at stake to loose. Then there is Korea -- they are geographically very close to Korea. After the Korean conflict, North Korea shafted the Chinese government by aligning with the USSR - and it is still the same family in power in North Korea. China has become a customer of landlocked Russian oil -- which is no longer the Soviet. So North Korea is in a very interesting position of trying to blackmail a lot of very powerful nations, one of which that shares a border with it. Meanwhile, China is trying to maintain its economic stability -- which does not benefit from a madman with nuclear weapons living next door. Then there's the poor people from the countryside who still represent the majority of China, and who have not found inclusion in the modern economy. China's gov't has a number of tigers by their tails -- call them "challenges."

China is hoping to keep its demand for resources fed. Certainly it is looking at Africa, but my understanding of the press (maybe I'm off on this one) is that China wearies of doling out cash to leaders without benefit. Unstable oil resources (Nigeria), a government whose currency is undergoing triple digit inflation and whose ability to deliver resources through normal commerce is useless to China. They need all sorts of resources, such as platinum, that are critical to a wide range of catalytic processes in industry, as well as simple raw mass of iron and other industrial materials.

Since this is my first trip here, I'll say that I am dumbfounded by the apparent freedom of people here. For the most part, the government doesn't have cameras on every corner, they don't track everyone's activities. They don't have congestion pricing. Daily life seems to be remarkably unregulated. There is significant police presence. Women can walk down the street at night without fear of being attacked -- for the most part (there are some examples where this is not true -- Guangdong's bus terminal has had some bad things happen). One thing that strikes me as a sort of paradox is that politicians who run for election tend to get elected on the basis of promises, which translates into new laws and regulations until you have a crushing number of laws.

Having said everything above, it is no news that China's gov't is very concerned about the press. They are very concerned about sedition. They are very concerned about accumulation of power that could threaten the gov't. History in China is marked by the periodic overthrow of weak leaders by new dynasties when things become too unhappy for the people. The ancient notion is the "mandate of heaven." The ruler ruled as long as heaven approved. This condition continued until the people became unhappy, and someone rose up and overthrew the emporer. If the attack didn't succeed, the emporer retained the mandate. There is a strong tradition that the people need to be kept happy.

My sense is that the government feels to people like the weather -- uncontrollable and generally impersonal. Old men sit in the shade and play majong, people sell peanuts on the sidewalk, workers sit down by the beach and play cards and drink beer, much as they have for centuries... barring interruptions whether WWII or the Cultural Revolution, or other such.

Oh -- tips aren't expected in the People's Republic of China. Yes, they do tend to eat anything (donkey tastes very good -- didn't try the caterpillars), but it is also a place filled with gardens and parks. Maintenance of older structures is very uneven. There is significant building and investing (not simply consumptive), as well as export. I think a better characterization is that they are culturally loath to waste opportunity.

No -- it isn't heaven. I love my hunting and I love my guns too much to be happy to live here. I hold the protections of rights as expressed in the US Constitution -- not just as a legal document, but as an almost spiritual statement -- to be too valuable to give up. I hold the duty to civil participation as a part of a sacred trust that comes with owning firearms -- to be trustworthy of my neighbors' lives. Most of these things are not something these folks playing ma'jong or selling peanuts would worry about.

Dan

Dear Dan:

Your assessment of China, her politics and the status of Chinese culture is penetrating and sincere.

I went to college with one of the first Communist Chinese students in the U. S., starting in the spring of 1982. We were close friends for years, but have drifted apart over the last 10 years. By his admission and knowledge and your opinion 25 years later, I conclude that China has both world power aspirations and a good sense of how to get the deal done economically.

The next 5 to 10 years should be quite interesting as China gains importance as a world power, not merely an economic power.

Nevertheless, I hardly see Japan and South Korea as vassal states. Taiwan is a conundrum. What is your opinion?

Sincerely,

Chris Bemis

quote:

Posted 28 July 2005 05:41 Hide Post
Lord have mercy on us! Looks like we're in for a long, long tit-for-tat after we're finished with the Mid-East. The communists have always wanted world-wide domination as it will enrich the party-elite and keep the masses from thinking about things they shouldn't. WWIII, here we come. What a scenario, what a nightmare.

Heck we aren't going to fight communism. Looks to me by the candidates, we are going to elect them in the next election here. Watch the news, nobody wants to fight for anything in this country. Lets just have peace for free!

"And the number of the army of the horsemen were two hundred thousand thousand (two hundred million): and I heard the number of them"
Revelation 9:19 KJV

Platinum is also used in the manufacture of nuclear weapons, specifically hydrogen bombs.

quote:

Sorry to be cynical and blunt but it was the Chinese /// also the Russins of cource BUT since then the Ruskies have been cracked and Communisim is a spent force I believe in Russia !!

Your just being truthful. No matter who backed them, the Rhodesian Army beat them at all turns. Just a sad fact jimmy carter and andrew young got involved.

Well now, bad banana bob will fill his coffers with more cash. And his people will starve.

quote:

Originally posted by Yale:
Dear Dan:

Your assessment of China, her politics and the status of Chinese culture is penetrating and sincere.

I went to college with one of the first Communist Chinese students in the U. S., starting in the spring of 1982. We were close friends for years, but have drifted apart over the last 10 years. By his admission and knowledge and your opinion 25 years later, I conclude that China has both world power aspirations and a good sense of how to get the deal done economically.

The next 5 to 10 years should be quite interesting as China gains importance as a world power, not merely an economic power.

Nevertheless, I hardly see Japan and South Korea as vassal states. Taiwan is a conundrum. What is your opinion?

Sincerely,

Chris Bemis

Japan and S Korea are hardly vassal states. Nor do I believe China views them as such. Each of these nations has their problems with N. Korea, and each of them is at risk of economic damage through Kim Jong Il's (sic) blackmail efforts. My exclusion of S. Korea and Japan wasn't because they were not important to the problem of N. Korea, or weren't affected by it (as is the US), but because this thread started out being about China's interest in Africa, and what China's motives, capabilities, and constraints might be. I have a sense that China's leadership is much more aware of its constraints than some posts here might have given credit for.

I have no real idea of how extensive China's interest in expanding territorial sovreignty might be. I do know that traditionally China has limited its interest to claiming territory that it had at some point claimed during its history. That was the policy in the '50s when land-hungry Mao took lands including Tibet. Since then, finding room for people, and trying to develop arable lands doesn't seem to be how China is solving those problems. Yet, its reach extends over much of Ghengis Khan's old claims, including up to the border of Afghanistan. I know the border with the USSR had been very uneasy for many years -- sometimes the risk of nuclear war being triggered there exceeded the risk of nuclear war with the US and either of those powers. I also know that China has at one time or another had claims to parts of N. Korea.

However, I think China's interest in world political impact and power is bound to be motivated by China's interest in protecting its world economic interests. I am not sure that they would think of it first as building economic power as much as protecting it. China has yet to have a major recession since its building boom began. I suspect they believe it will be exceedingly painful, that they perceive a huge impact not only to China but to the rest of the world if such a collapse occurs, which will hurt China yet more, and they want to try to forestall it, or to build better economic controls designed to manage that problem. None of their licensing policies and other regulatory functions that have traditionally existed were set up to solve this problem. My sense is that they are very unsure how to proceed. I think the US example where Greenspan's policy of low interest rates, so significantly boosting housing prices to pump money into the economy by encouraging a huge number of people to take on huge amounts of debt secured by their real estate holdings, doesn't make a great example to follow -- or rather shows how difficult it is to tweak what limited tools we have to solve weaknesses in our economy without causing future problems that can be huge further down the line.

Dan

quote:

Heck we aren't going to fight communism. Looks to me by the candidates, we are going to elect them in the next election here. Watch the news, nobody wants to fight for anything in this country. Lets just have peace for free!

That is soooooooo true Magnum Hunter1!!!!!!!!!!!

If our country would have had to fight WWII with the population we have now, the west coast would be speaking Japanese and the East coast German.

I just so wish we could pull our heads out of our asses and realize that the only way to solve some problems is at the end of a rifle barrel and then be OK with that fact.

As much as I hate Osama Bin Laden and what he stands for, the man was smart enough to have our society pegged as he quotes "Just keep on killing some Americans each day because they will eventually loose there stomach for it and quit the war!"

quote:

Originally posted by DanEP:
I have just finished visiting my inlaws in Zuhai and Wuhan, and am now at a meeting in Shanghai. In Zuhai, I saw a very interesting interview on TV involving a question of law that came up concerning the new constitutional protections of property rights, and the power of the state to exercise eminent domain to take property (with or without compensation) for the purposes of urban renewal. Such challenges may ultimately have more impact on rule of law than more visible protests ever could. This is maybe the first "challenge" I'll list.

China has a number of "challenges" (nice neutral word), including Taiwan, Korea, the rapid shift in economic power base, development, rapid growth in world economic power, etc. When Hu's gov't took over, the outgoing government left him with a new Governor of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK SAR). That governor was a hard liner. There were protests and very vocal complaints from a region used to much less hard-line treatment from their government. This was at a critical time for Taiwan. Taiwan has huge investments in mainland China. China doesn't want to damage those investments because they need continuing world trust for more capital development. Taiwan was facing elections and watched the HK SAR problems with great interest. Some folks in Taiwan are interested in reunification; some strongly oppose it. Tilting things one way or the other was a problem. As it was, Hu decided he had to support the governor to assert central authority, which tilted Taiwan in a way the government didn't want. After a moderately short period of time, the governor of HK SAR retired. As it stands, they cannot get too militant with Taiwan -- there is way too much at stake to loose. Then there is Korea -- they are geographically very close to Korea. After the Korean conflict, North Korea shafted the Chinese government by aligning with the USSR - and it is still the same family in power in North Korea. China has become a customer of landlocked Russian oil -- which is no longer the Soviet. So North Korea is in a very interesting position of trying to blackmail a lot of very powerful nations, one of which that shares a border with it. Meanwhile, China is trying to maintain its economic stability -- which does not benefit from a madman with nuclear weapons living next door. Then there's the poor people from the countryside who still represent the majority of China, and who have not found inclusion in the modern economy. China's gov't has a number of tigers by their tails -- call them "challenges."

China is hoping to keep its demand for resources fed. Certainly it is looking at Africa, but my understanding of the press (maybe I'm off on this one) is that China wearies of doling out cash to leaders without benefit. Unstable oil resources (Nigeria), a government whose currency is undergoing triple digit inflation and whose ability to deliver resources through normal commerce is useless to China. They need all sorts of resources, such as platinum, that are critical to a wide range of catalytic processes in industry, as well as simple raw mass of iron and other industrial materials.

Since this is my first trip here, I'll say that I am dumbfounded by the apparent freedom of people here. For the most part, the government doesn't have cameras on every corner, they don't track everyone's activities. They don't have congestion pricing. Daily life seems to be remarkably unregulated. There is significant police presence. Women can walk down the street at night without fear of being attacked -- for the most part (there are some examples where this is not true -- Guangdong's bus terminal has had some bad things happen). One thing that strikes me as a sort of paradox is that politicians who run for election tend to get elected on the basis of promises, which translates into new laws and regulations until you have a crushing number of laws.

Having said everything above, it is no news that China's gov't is very concerned about the press. They are very concerned about sedition. They are very concerned about accumulation of power that could threaten the gov't. History in China is marked by the periodic overthrow of weak leaders by new dynasties when things become too unhappy for the people. The ancient notion is the "mandate of heaven." The ruler ruled as long as heaven approved. This condition continued until the people became unhappy, and someone rose up and overthrew the emporer. If the attack didn't succeed, the emporer retained the mandate. There is a strong tradition that the people need to be kept happy.

My sense is that the government feels to people like the weather -- uncontrollable and generally impersonal. Old men sit in the shade and play majong, people sell peanuts on the sidewalk, workers sit down by the beach and play cards and drink beer, much as they have for centuries... barring interruptions whether WWII or the Cultural Revolution, or other such.

Oh -- tips aren't expected in the People's Republic of China. Yes, they do tend to eat anything (donkey tastes very good -- didn't try the caterpillars), but it is also a place filled with gardens and parks. Maintenance of older structures is very uneven. There is significant building and investing (not simply consumptive), as well as export. I think a better characterization is that they are culturally loath to waste opportunity.

No -- it isn't heaven. I love my hunting and I love my guns too much to be happy to live here. I hold the protections of rights as expressed in the US Constitution -- not just as a legal document, but as an almost spiritual statement -- to be too valuable to give up. I hold the duty to civil participation as a part of a sacred trust that comes with owning firearms -- to be trustworthy of my neighbors' lives. Most of these things are not something these folks playing ma'jong or selling peanuts would worry about.

Dan

Bravo!!! Very insightful.

DanEP
That is I think a very good assessment of the Chinese. The important part is the part about there Eastern Mind not being the least bit concerned about the concepts of individual rights fair play etc that we take for granted.
The little understanding that I have leads me to believe that the Chinese having made this amazing transition from a massive agrarian culture to an equally massive industrial power are going to have to find raw material in order to continue forward. If they are not able to do this they are probably set for a political upheaval. Africa is the obvious source for a lot of what they need. I just read an article in the Wall Street J. about how effectively the Chinese have been in integrating themselves into Africa. They have kept a very low profile while doing this.

The bottom line is that my emotional attachment here is to Zimbabwe. Unfortunately my guess at what we are going to see there is basically what we have seen in Cuba. The Chinese are backing Bob right now while they are picking his successor. Bob will do what ever is necessary to to win the next election and if that means starving every person in Zim well no problem,for Bob or the Chinese. The Chinese are assisting him is his planing and orchestration of this plan. After he is elected he will pass power to who ever he and the Chinese pick. That person will start another 25 year reign and will stay in power as long as the Chinese have unfettered access to the natural resources that Zim has. I doubt very seriously that sport hunting will have any importance in this. In fact my guess it that the Chinese will be much more comfortable not having Westerners coming into the country.

quote:

Originally posted by els:
DanEP
That is I think a very good assessment of the Chinese. The important part is the part about there Eastern Mind not being the least bit concerned about the concepts of individual rights fair play etc that we take for granted.

A good assessment of the government, but I don't think it is entirely true of the people of China. For that I will cite news reports of countryside residents (accorded about the same status as illegal immigrants) working illegally in the cities. Contractors have used their labor for months without pay, then disappear without ever paying them for their work. Now a system of advocacy groups and support seeking -- and winning -- judgements in courts in favor of the workers to get their pay. Another example is an emerging set of lawsuits for medical malpractice, which is being won by injured patients or their families.

quote:

The little understanding that I have leads me to believe that the Chinese having made this amazing transition from a massive agrarian culture to an equally massive industrial power are going to have to find raw material in order to continue forward. If they are not able to do this they are probably set for a political upheaval. Africa is the obvious source for a lot of what they need. I just read an article in the Wall Street J. about how effectively the Chinese have been in integrating themselves into Africa. They have kept a very low profile while doing this.

I think this is mostly right -- except that a majority of the nation is still agrarian and has not been participating in the huge economic benefits. China is trying to do its best to bring the "countryside" into some economic benefit because there has been some unrest surrounding these inequities.

quote:

The bottom line is that my emotional attachment here is to Zimbabwe. Unfortunately my guess at what we are going to see there is basically what we have seen in Cuba. The Chinese are backing Bob right now while they are picking his successor. Bob will do what ever is necessary to to win the next election and if that means starving every person in Zim well no problem,for Bob or the Chinese. The Chinese are assisting him is his planing and orchestration of this plan. After he is elected he will pass power to who ever he and the Chinese pick. That person will start another 25 year reign and will stay in power as long as the Chinese have unfettered access to the natural resources that Zim has. I doubt very seriously that sport hunting will have any importance in this. In fact my guess it that the Chinese will be much more comfortable not having Westerners coming into the country.

I think this is exactly the arena we are playing in.. there is much to be interested in for the west in Zim. Alignment of the next ruler is going to be very important. But I am unsure China wants another Cuba... though they want all the *productive* friends they can find. What we SHOULD expect from Zim's leadership is a realization that they have two suiters and will seek to get the best deals they can.

Dan

Chinese?....Ethiopia is full of em!
Rich Elliott

Wonder how things would go if the chinese liked to hunt?